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We have a by election in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 4 in General
imageWe have a by election in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

Owen Paterson to resign as MP for North Shropshire after sleaze row – UK politics live https://t.co/vXpxuXfFoH

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Comments

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197
    I wonder if Nigel will fancy another pop. He could run on a simultaneous ticket of Boris's venal Tories and a good Brexit man brought down by Boris's incompetence and treachery.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    Next 1922 Committee meeting will be fun too: "Thank you all for loyally voting to destroy an oversight process which hasn't been destroyed, in order to save a colleague who hasn't been saved, after he was caught red handed being corrupt, for which he has not apologised."
    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1456273007496740875
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    Shropshire Party gain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited November 4
    The Tories should still hold it comfortably even with a reduced majority over Labour. It was 56% Leave and the Tories had 62% of the vote in the seat in 2019. I would suggest they pick a local councillor or farmer as Tory candidate.

    The main question, as in Old Bexley and Sidcup, is whether ReformUK can beat the LDs for third place. As the thread header shows the LDs got just 10% in Shropshire North in 2019 and UKIP got 17% in the seat in 2015 when they beat the LDs for third
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754
    I wonder if George Osborne needs another job.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,138

    I wonder if Nigel will fancy another pop. He could run on a simultaneous ticket of Boris's venal Tories and a good Brexit man brought down by Boris's incompetence and treachery.

    Farage would struggle to get 500 votes from the decent, honest people of North Shropshire.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,451
    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Focussed on the Telegraph dinner and his ear being bent there more like - with that private plane dash, bang as he leaves COP26 - so, so stupid too.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,451

    I wonder if Nigel will fancy another pop. He could run on a simultaneous ticket of Boris's venal Tories and a good Brexit man brought down by Boris's incompetence and treachery.

    Farage would struggle to get 500 votes from the decent, honest people of North Shropshire.
    It's the ones who aren't decenty and honest that one worries about.
  • The whole episode has been distasteful and full marks to the 13
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,190
    Jonathan said:

    I wonder if George Osborne needs another job.

    It would be great to see him back and a bit of grip and discipline restored but I think that he has moved on.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754

    There cannot be a single Tory MP who now has even the remotest faith in the Prime Minister. Over the last 24 hours he has demonstrated conclusively that he is entirely untrustworthy and someone who is very happy to betray anyone at any time if it is convenient to do so.

    You speak as if this is news, they bought into that years ago.
  • I am glad that Paterson has done the dishonourable thing and been dragged to see Dishi to apply to lobby for Her Majesty as her Steward of the Manor of Northsted / Chiltern Hundreds.

    So, the corrupt Tory Party needs to be shown that it behaviour is not acceptable. An anti-corruption independent is needed, someone who has displayed impeccable honour and standards. With all other major parties standing aside.

    Calling Rory Stewart...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    Jonathan said:

    I wonder if George Osborne needs another job.

    Hopefully not.

    The one ex-MP I'd really like to see parachuted in though is Rory Stewart.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754
    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    I wonder if George Osborne needs another job.

    It would be great to see him back and a bit of grip and discipline restored but I think that he has moved on.
    It would be really rather fun to see the heirs presumptive Sunak and Truss have their noses seriously put out of joint.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,356
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:



    Time for letters to the 1922 committee

    Big G getting a tad over excitable methinks ;)
    BigG just hates Boris, of course he ignores the fact Hunt, Boris' main rival in 2019, actually signed as well as voted for Leadsom's amendment.

    Of course BigG also ignores the fact Boris is the only Tory leader since Thatcher to have won a big working majority of over 50 and we all know what happened to the Tories once Thatcher went, they lost 3 out of 4 of the next general elections
    Yep, parties that ditch their winners become losers. Con did it. Then Lab did it.

    Of course Boris will go eventually and a long period of political oblivion will await the Tories when he does I suspect.

    The way I see it, Boris wins in 2023 with a reduced (but still healthy) majority, He goes sometime around 2026. Labour win in 2028 and the 2030's are a "Labour decade"
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754
    edited November 4
    Omnium said:

    Jonathan said:

    I wonder if George Osborne needs another job.

    Hopefully not.

    The one ex-MP I'd really like to see parachuted in though is Rory Stewart.
    Now that's naughty. Which Party?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438

    I am glad that Paterson has done the dishonourable thing and been dragged to see Dishi to apply to lobby for Her Majesty as her Steward of the Manor of Northsted / Chiltern Hundreds.

    So, the corrupt Tory Party needs to be shown that it behaviour is not acceptable. An anti-corruption independent is needed, someone who has displayed impeccable honour and standards. With all other major parties standing aside.

    Calling Rory Stewart...

    Wow that's a coincidence! (For others we certainly didn't confer)
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    Tory MPs must be getting so frustrated.

    "Vote for this!"

    - "But it's wrong..."

    "VOTE FOR IT OR ELSE! AND DEFEND IT!"

    - "Oh, all right. Got to be loya..."

    "That thing we made the MPs vote for was wrong. We're going the other way."

    - "Oh, FFS, now we look really stupid."

    (Everyone else: "Now you look stupid?")
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    What's Ruth up to these days?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,462
    Oh! Just read the news on Paterson.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,638

    I am glad that Paterson has done the dishonourable thing and been dragged to see Dishi to apply to lobby for Her Majesty as her Steward of the Manor of Northsted / Chiltern Hundreds.

    So, the corrupt Tory Party needs to be shown that it behaviour is not acceptable. An anti-corruption independent is needed, someone who has displayed impeccable honour and standards. With all other major parties standing aside.

    Calling Rory Stewart...

    Good call! But you'd have to nail him down so he didn't cross the floor.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 859
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should still hold it comfortably even with a reduced majority over Labour. It was 56% Leave and the Tories had 62% of the vote in the seat in 2019. I would suggest they pick a local councillor or farmer as Tory candidate.

    The main question, as in Old Bexley and Sidcup, is whether ReformUK can beat the LDs for third place. As the thread header shows the LDs got just 10% in Shropshire North in 2019 and UKIP got 17% in the seat in 2015 when they beat the LDs for third

    Nice try. However such a transparent attempt to blow smoke in our eyes just underlines that the Tories know no humility or contrition. Such partisan drivel will blow back on you, so I´d just take my time in the naughty corner if I were you.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,436
    "I suspect the damage from this shabby, sleazy, and ignoble process will be long term damage to the Prime Minister and the Tory Party ..."

    I suspect that if Tories had any particular aversion from shabby, sleazy and/or ignoble recent British history would have been very different.

    Long live Boris the Invincible!
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,455
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should still hold it comfortably even with a reduced majority over Labour. It was 56% Leave and the Tories had 62% of the vote in the seat in 2019. I would suggest they pick a local councillor or farmer as Tory candidate.

    The main question, as in Old Bexley and Sidcup, is whether ReformUK can beat the LDs for third place. As the thread header shows the LDs got just 10% in Shropshire North in 2019 and UKIP got 17% in the seat in 2015 when they beat the LDs for third

    Your party is a national joke.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,356

    There cannot be a single Tory MP who now has even the remotest faith in the Prime Minister. Over the last 24 hours he has demonstrated conclusively that he is entirely untrustworthy and someone who is very happy to betray anyone at any time if it is convenient to do so.

    Well everyone has always known that about Boris...

    But...

    He's a WINNER! ;)

    Until that demonstrably changes he's going nowhere.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,159

    I am glad that Paterson has done the dishonourable thing and been dragged to see Dishi to apply to lobby for Her Majesty as her Steward of the Manor of Northsted / Chiltern Hundreds.

    So, the corrupt Tory Party needs to be shown that it behaviour is not acceptable. An anti-corruption independent is needed, someone who has displayed impeccable honour and standards. With all other major parties standing aside.

    Calling Rory Stewart...

    I'd love him to be back as an MP.

    But with Boris in charge of the party, there's zero chance of Stewart being parachuted into a seat. Unless it's the seat of an electric chair ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,462
    One for Martin Bell and the white suit?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 859

    I am glad that Paterson has done the dishonourable thing and been dragged to see Dishi to apply to lobby for Her Majesty as her Steward of the Manor of Northsted / Chiltern Hundreds.

    So, the corrupt Tory Party needs to be shown that it behaviour is not acceptable. An anti-corruption independent is needed, someone who has displayed impeccable honour and standards. With all other major parties standing aside.

    Calling Rory Stewart...

    That would really put the wind up quite a few Tories.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,455
    What an utter clusterfuck, a total shambles. It is time for the men in grey suits to visit Britain’s Trump with a silver salver with a bottle of scotch and a revolver on it.

    We are governed by these useless idiots and the opposition really are not any better.

    What a time to be alive.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,179
    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,462
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    26m
    Seen some bizarre political scandals. But for sheer insanity I’m not sure anything quite tops this.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,638
    edited November 4
    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    "Presumably Boris was fully "FOCUSED" on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough".

    Top marks for top satire David!.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,462
    6 hours is a long time in politics...

    Sky News
    @SkyNews
    · 6h
    Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng tells #KayBurley it is "difficult" to see a future for Kathryn Stone, the independent parliamentary commissioner for standards, after her recommendation to suspend Owen Paterson was blocked by Conservative MPs.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438

    I am glad that Paterson has done the dishonourable thing and been dragged to see Dishi to apply to lobby for Her Majesty as her Steward of the Manor of Northsted / Chiltern Hundreds.

    So, the corrupt Tory Party needs to be shown that it behaviour is not acceptable. An anti-corruption independent is needed, someone who has displayed impeccable honour and standards. With all other major parties standing aside.

    Calling Rory Stewart...

    I'd love him to be back as an MP.

    But with Boris in charge of the party, there's zero chance of Stewart being parachuted into a seat. Unless it's the seat of an electric chair ...
    Unfortunately I think there's zero chance of RS wanting to anyway. FWIW I don't think Boris would be against it. He's not very Machiavellian.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    What I don't get (and granted I was at the dentist between 9 and 10 this morning) is what changed that meant Boris and Co had no choice but to switch from protecting Owen to getting shot of him by close of play today?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,323
    Mr. Jonathan, Honorius successfully clung on as Roman emperor for a long time. In the end, that might have done more harm to the empire than anything else.

    (Good video on HistoryMarche about Majorian, who came close to restoring the West but the corruption had sunk so deep he had a similar time of it to Aurelian, but with no Diocletian or Constantine down the line).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,159
    GIN1138 said:

    There cannot be a single Tory MP who now has even the remotest faith in the Prime Minister. Over the last 24 hours he has demonstrated conclusively that he is entirely untrustworthy and someone who is very happy to betray anyone at any time if it is convenient to do so.

    Well everyone has always known that about Boris...

    But...

    He's a WINNER! ;)

    Until that demonstrably changes he's going nowhere.
    That's been my view for ages. I didn't vote for the Tories under him, and before he became PM, I stated he'd be hopeless at the job (witness all my comments over the Garden Bridge). I do quite like him in some ways: but I also quite like my milkman, but wouldn't want him running the country.

    I have defended Boris on one thing though: the detractors often go too far, and assume that the same delirious anger and ire they have for him is shared by the public. It isn't, which is one of the reasons why he won the election, and why the Conservatives have a very unusual mid-term lead in the polls. The public like Boris, and do not share BDS.

    However: this might not last forever. Boris's fall, if and when it comes, is probably going to be rapid and spectacular.

    Is this enough to cause the public to fall out of love with him? Perhaps not. But if not, what will? Time? Brexit disappearing into a distant memory?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Taz said:

    What an utter clusterfuck, a total shambles. It is time for the men in grey suits to visit Britain’s Trump with a silver salver with a bottle of scotch and a revolver on it.

    We are governed by these useless idiots and the opposition really are not any better.

    What a time to be alive.

    It's really something when in the space of 24 hours I find myself in agreement with both Richard Fucking Burgon and you.

    After you with that tray, Boris.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377
    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should still hold it comfortably even with a reduced majority over Labour. It was 56% Leave and the Tories had 62% of the vote in the seat in 2019. I would suggest they pick a local councillor or farmer as Tory candidate.

    The main question, as in Old Bexley and Sidcup, is whether ReformUK can beat the LDs for third place. As the thread header shows the LDs got just 10% in Shropshire North in 2019 and UKIP got 17% in the seat in 2015 when they beat the LDs for third

    Your party is a national joke.
    It has been made that way by the idiots who thought it was a good idea to put a clown in charge because he "wins elections". It was like putting an accident prone captain in charge of a cruise liner because he was entertaining to the passengers at the Captain's Table. The damage he has done to the long term credibility of the party, and the UK's international reputation (and possibly it's very existence) is immeasurable.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,451
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Let's look on the bright side. At least that's the end of Charles Moore's career as a political advisor.
    Just noticed this ...

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1456219689839890437
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,190
    edited November 4

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
    In fairness, COP 26 does look as if it is going to produce a lot more delivery than was once feared and probably about as much as could be achieved given China's lack of interest. Boris has done pretty well there and the effort it has taken has been pretty evident. He looks exhausted.

    But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should still hold it comfortably even with a reduced majority over Labour. It was 56% Leave and the Tories had 62% of the vote in the seat in 2019. I would suggest they pick a local councillor or farmer as Tory candidate.

    The main question, as in Old Bexley and Sidcup, is whether ReformUK can beat the LDs for third place. As the thread header shows the LDs got just 10% in Shropshire North in 2019 and UKIP got 17% in the seat in 2015 when they beat the LDs for third

    Your party is a national joke.
    It has been made that way by the idiots who thought it was a good idea to put a clown in charge because he "wins elections". It was like putting an accident prone captain in charge of a cruise liner because he was entertaining to the passengers at the Captain's Table. The damage he has done to the long term credibility of the party, and the UK's international reputation (and possibly it's very existence) is immeasurable.
    Is this an important moment?

    I wonder whether Conservative MPs will look at the brink, avoid the fate of the GOP, and start acting like Conservatives, or will they double down and continue back the 'winner' and all the nonsense that goes with it?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    Taz said:

    What an utter clusterfuck, a total shambles. It is time for the men in grey suits to visit Britain’s Trump with a silver salver with a bottle of scotch and a revolver on it.

    We are governed by these useless idiots and the opposition really are not any better.

    What a time to be alive.

    You're right.

    Your last thought though - something stupid just got reversed in 24h. The reversal is a huge positive.

    Good things can happen.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    edited November 4
    Boris Johnson behind the wheel:

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,451
    edited November 4
    Farooq said:

    What's Ruth up to these days?

    No good. Peer. And she and Mr Johnson are not besties. Far too similar iun critical respects, in my view [edit]..
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,594
    eek said:

    What I don't get (and granted I was at the dentist between 9 and 10 this morning) is what changed that meant Boris and Co had no choice but to switch from protecting Owen to getting shot of him by close of play today?

    Easiest way to walk away from the mess of no cross party involvement in the new committee.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,638
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
    In fairness, COP 26 does look as if it is going to produce a lot more delivery than was once feared and probably about as much as could be achieved given China's lack of interest. Boris has done pretty well there and the effort it has taken has been pretty evident. He looks exhausted.

    But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
    Come on David, he blew his own credibility out of the water by hitching a ride on the Telegraph's Lear jet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,190

    Boris Johnson behind the wheel:

    image

    Nah, that driver has not hit a tree.
  • One for Martin Bell and the white suit?

    Its Rory Stewart. Former soldier and diplomat. Officer of the Order of the British Empire. Resigned from Johnson's Tory Party on principle. Currently running an NGO in Jordan and a visiting fellow at Yale.

    To hold up a mirror to corruption you need to find someone who is demonstrably good and uncorruptable. Rory Stewart.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377
    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should still hold it comfortably even with a reduced majority over Labour. It was 56% Leave and the Tories had 62% of the vote in the seat in 2019. I would suggest they pick a local councillor or farmer as Tory candidate.

    The main question, as in Old Bexley and Sidcup, is whether ReformUK can beat the LDs for third place. As the thread header shows the LDs got just 10% in Shropshire North in 2019 and UKIP got 17% in the seat in 2015 when they beat the LDs for third

    Your party is a national joke.
    It has been made that way by the idiots who thought it was a good idea to put a clown in charge because he "wins elections". It was like putting an accident prone captain in charge of a cruise liner because he was entertaining to the passengers at the Captain's Table. The damage he has done to the long term credibility of the party, and the UK's international reputation (and possibly it's very existence) is immeasurable.
    Is this an important moment?

    I wonder whether Conservative MPs will look at the brink, avoid the fate of the GOP, and start acting like Conservatives, or will they double down and continue back the 'winner' and all the nonsense that goes with it?
    One of the big problems with our system is the lack of a proper separation of powers. The executive draws it's members from the legislature and uses the whipping system to ensure that anyone with a modicum of ambition toes the party line. Rebellion is a semi-suicide note to any ambition for higher office. There are still plenty of decent people in the Parliamentary Conservative Party, but they know the small mindedness of Boris Johnson means that must not upset him. Fundamentally, to answer your point, they will not behave like Conservatives because they are all populists while the Clown wears the crown.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
    In fairness, COP 26 does look as if it is going to produce a lot more delivery than was once feared and probably about as much as could be achieved given China's lack of interest. Boris has done pretty well there and the effort it has taken has been pretty evident. He looks exhausted.

    But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
    Come on David, he blew his own credibility out of the water by hitching a ride on the Telegraph's Lear jet.
    I accepted that the PM may need to travel by air because its busy being PM. OK not a good luck as you leave your own climate summit early, but it may be required.

    No. Not required. He had a private dinner appointment.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377

    One for Martin Bell and the white suit?

    Its Rory Stewart. Former soldier and diplomat. Officer of the Order of the British Empire. Resigned from Johnson's Tory Party on principle. Currently running an NGO in Jordan and a visiting fellow at Yale.

    To hold up a mirror to corruption you need to find someone who is demonstrably good and uncorruptable. Rory Stewart.
    I do hope so. Can't see it happening sadly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    .@Keir_Starmer on Owen Paterson: “This has been an unbelievable 24 hours even by this govt’s chaotic standards. Only yday Boris Johnson was forcing his MPs to rip up the rules on standards in public life is a truly damning indictment of this PM and the corrupt govt he leads.”

    “Boris Johnson must now apologise to the entire country for this grubby attempt to cover up for the misdemeanour of his friend. This isn't the first time he's done this but it must be the last. And Boris Johnson must explain how he intends to fix the immense harm he has done...”

    “...to confidence in the probity of him and his MPs.”


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1456278734265204741
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    Scott_xP said:
    Interesting question in that article

    One of the questions many in Westminster have been asking over the past year and a bit is why the numerous Tory sleaze stories haven't had the sort of cut-through that similar rows and revelations had in the John Major years?

    And I really don't know what the answer is...
  • eek said:

    What I don't get (and granted I was at the dentist between 9 and 10 this morning) is what changed that meant Boris and Co had no choice but to switch from protecting Owen to getting shot of him by close of play today?

    From what I heard Tory MPs had sympathy for Paterson because of his wife’s suicide.

    Overnight they finally read the allegations and his defence (sic) and realised he was guilty as sin.

    So there had to be another vote to censure him and nobody wanted to defend that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,638

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
    In fairness, COP 26 does look as if it is going to produce a lot more delivery than was once feared and probably about as much as could be achieved given China's lack of interest. Boris has done pretty well there and the effort it has taken has been pretty evident. He looks exhausted.

    But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
    Come on David, he blew his own credibility out of the water by hitching a ride on the Telegraph's Lear jet.
    I accepted that the PM may need to travel by air because its busy being PM. OK not a good luck as you leave your own climate summit early, but it may be required.

    No. Not required. He had a private dinner appointment.
    He could have travelled by (sl)easyjet!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,190

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
    In fairness, COP 26 does look as if it is going to produce a lot more delivery than was once feared and probably about as much as could be achieved given China's lack of interest. Boris has done pretty well there and the effort it has taken has been pretty evident. He looks exhausted.

    But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
    Come on David, he blew his own credibility out of the water by hitching a ride on the Telegraph's Lear jet.
    I am sure that all the others present in Glasgow with their private jets parked up in Prestwick airport FOC courtesy of the Scottish government will have been suitably appalled.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Not particularly happy with Paterson's statement trying to imply that he's resigning because of all the beastly opponents mocking his dead wife. The Ahhhs in the commons were unedifying but the idea that all this trouble he's in is anyone else's fault is a self-pitying fiction. He should have resigned days ago and spared his party this grim farce.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    In a more (hopefully) useful theme, in the cricket, England qualify as long as their Net Run rate doesn't swing behind South Africa's.

    NRR is an arcane way of tie-breaking (it is arguably fair, but not remotely easy to work out a team's target; I still prefer the suggestion by someone that the team batting second should have their Duckworth-Lewis score at the end credited to them in terms of runs (so could "win by dozens of runs" even batting second, and then do it as runs for and against).

    I've had a crack at the targets for SA batting first and England batting first. For the latter, it requires the final score (so if scores were level before the winning hit, SA could get a maximum of a 6 run victory batting second).

    Here's what I've got for:
    - SA bat first; what must England get?
    - England bat first, how many overs have SA got to knock the runs off?



    The latter is remarkably invariant - if SA successfully chase down England's score in 8 and a half overs or less, they qualify. If they fail to chase down England's score after 9 overs are completed, they're out, win or lose. Between 8 and a half overs and 9 overs, it's down to the calculators.

    In the former, if England knock SA over for 70 or fewer runs, they qualify before even coming out to bat. Above that.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    edited November 4

    eek said:

    What I don't get (and granted I was at the dentist between 9 and 10 this morning) is what changed that meant Boris and Co had no choice but to switch from protecting Owen to getting shot of him by close of play today?

    From what I heard Tory MPs had sympathy for Paterson because of his wife’s suicide.

    Overnight they finally read the allegations and his defence (sic) and realised he was guilty as sin.

    So there had to be another vote to censure him and nobody wanted to defend that.
    Why the f*** did they not look at the allegations and defence before starting to defend him.

    The paperwork was available online and made it 100% clear why this was the wrong case to do anything with.

    Heck I said as much yesterday, no character witness can explain multiple letters (so not a single accidental mistake) where you misrepresent the reason you are writing the letter and fail to mention you are being paid to do so.
  • eek said:

    What I don't get (and granted I was at the dentist between 9 and 10 this morning) is what changed that meant Boris and Co had no choice but to switch from protecting Owen to getting shot of him by close of play today?

    From what I heard Tory MPs had sympathy for Paterson because of his wife’s suicide.

    Overnight they finally read the allegations and his defence (sic) and realised he was guilty as sin.

    So there had to be another vote to censure him and nobody wanted to defend that.
    The "my wife committed suicide" angle was appalling. Yes its a persona tragedy. But it is no defence against corruption. Or was he suggesting that he was so grief-stricken by her suicide that he accidentally made half a mil from lobbying? If so why is he saying he would do it all again?

    In ordinary times I would ask how stupid the Tory party think people are. Sadly we know that they know quite a lot of people are pretty stupid...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Let's look on the bright side. At least that's the end of Charles Moore's career as a political advisor.
    The only time I ever attended a recording of Any Questions as an audience member, Charles Moore was on the panel. I don't recall the specifics (it was more than 25 years ago) but I do remember him being so vile that at one point much of the audience was reduced to shouting "shame" at him, me included.
    I'd like to think this debacle might sink him, but I suspect that he is the turd that won't flush away.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    edited November 4

    eek said:

    What I don't get (and granted I was at the dentist between 9 and 10 this morning) is what changed that meant Boris and Co had no choice but to switch from protecting Owen to getting shot of him by close of play today?

    From what I heard Tory MPs had sympathy for Paterson because of his wife’s suicide.

    Overnight they finally read the allegations and his defence (sic) and realised he was guilty as sin.

    So there had to be another vote to censure him and nobody wanted to defend that.
    The "my wife committed suicide" angle was appalling. Yes its a persona tragedy. But it is no defence against corruption. Or was he suggesting that he was so grief-stricken by her suicide that he accidentally made half a mil from lobbying? If so why is he saying he would do it all again?

    In ordinary times I would ask how stupid the Tory party think people are. Sadly we know that they know quite a lot of people are pretty stupid...
    His wife committed suicide in 2020, after the letters were written and after the investigation had begun.

    So Owen or someone trying to protect him, misrepresented those facts to try and justify the unjustifiable.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    What I don't get (and granted I was at the dentist between 9 and 10 this morning) is what changed that meant Boris and Co had no choice but to switch from protecting Owen to getting shot of him by close of play today?

    From what I heard Tory MPs had sympathy for Paterson because of his wife’s suicide.

    Overnight they finally read the allegations and his defence (sic) and realised he was guilty as sin.

    So there had to be another vote to censure him and nobody wanted to defend that.
    Why the f*** did they not look at the allegations and defence before starting to defend him.

    The paperwork was available online and made it 100% clear why this was the wrong case to do anything with.

    Heck I said as much yesterday, no character witness can explain multiple letters (so not a single accidental mistake) where you misrepresent the reason you are writing the letter and fail to mention you are being paid to do so.
    Some of them fell for the bullshit perpetuated on here about the Commissioner and the process.

    Something which was rebutted extensively.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,716

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
    In fairness, COP 26 does look as if it is going to produce a lot more delivery than was once feared and probably about as much as could be achieved given China's lack of interest. Boris has done pretty well there and the effort it has taken has been pretty evident. He looks exhausted.

    But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
    Come on David, he blew his own credibility out of the water by hitching a ride on the Telegraph's Lear jet.
    I accepted that the PM may need to travel by air because its busy being PM. OK not a good luck as you leave your own climate summit early, but it may be required.

    No. Not required. He had a private dinner appointment.
    Wouldn't the Telegraph's jet have been travelling anyway?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,096
    Boris to follow in the new year? He is obviously weak and easily led and his credibility in the Tory parliamentary party must be diving rapidly. I suppose they could adopt a policy of not implementing anything ordered by BJ for 7 days to allow for a cooling off period?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,638
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
    In fairness, COP 26 does look as if it is going to produce a lot more delivery than was once feared and probably about as much as could be achieved given China's lack of interest. Boris has done pretty well there and the effort it has taken has been pretty evident. He looks exhausted.

    But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
    Come on David, he blew his own credibility out of the water by hitching a ride on the Telegraph's Lear jet.
    I am sure that all the others present in Glasgow with their private jets parked up in Prestwick airport FOC courtesy of the Scottish government will have been suitably appalled.
    It's not really the point.

    TSE's hero Mark Drakeford let the train take the strain. He hasn't got to Glasgow yet, he'll arrive next Tuesday, but his heart was in the right place.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492
    The Tories are very lucky that both North Shropshire and Bexley and Sidcup are rock solid leave voting conservative seats. Even a Martin-Bell type campaign by Stewart would probably not be enough, especially as Paterson himself wouldn't be standing but some new fresh-faced - no doubt impeccably uncorrupt - candidate. It will mean that they have 2 fairly comfortable wins on the trot and can wrest back the momentum.

    If Paterson had been MP for somewhere in the Surrey/Hants/Berks/Bucks remain belt things might be looking somewhat shakier.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    Interested in this idea that virginity, once gone, is only hard to get back? How do you go about doing that?

    I always thought virginity was more like Darcy's good opinion in Pride & Prejudice.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,432
    1) Covid snowflakery: Manchester and Salford City Councils have both elected to cancel their bonfires this year because of covid (despite having some of the lowest rates of infections in the country). Parts of the public sector are still addicted to the power rush of last year.
    2) Daughter snowflakery: my six year old daughter complained yesterday that “Mabel said that I always cry. And that’s not respecting my rights!”
    (Arguably, Mabel has a point).
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,096

    One for Martin Bell and the white suit?

    Its Rory Stewart. Former soldier and diplomat. Officer of the Order of the British Empire. Resigned from Johnson's Tory Party on principle. Currently running an NGO in Jordan and a visiting fellow at Yale.

    To hold up a mirror to corruption you need to find someone who is demonstrably good and uncorruptable. Rory Stewart.
    If Labour and LDs stood aside he would surely win. I wonder if he could even if they didn't?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,786
    edited November 4
    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    I wonder if George Osborne needs another job.

    It would be great to see him back and a bit of grip and discipline restored but I think that he has moved on.
    He won’t be back because he’s earning squillions at Robey Warshawthe current Conservative party is doing profoundly unConservative things.

    There’s no way on this earth he could back nonsense like the State Aid bill, stuff that made Lady Thatcher spin in her grave.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,451

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
    In fairness, COP 26 does look as if it is going to produce a lot more delivery than was once feared and probably about as much as could be achieved given China's lack of interest. Boris has done pretty well there and the effort it has taken has been pretty evident. He looks exhausted.

    But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
    Come on David, he blew his own credibility out of the water by hitching a ride on the Telegraph's Lear jet.
    I am sure that all the others present in Glasgow with their private jets parked up in Prestwick airport FOC courtesy of the Scottish government will have been suitably appalled.
    It's not really the point.

    TSE's hero Mark Drakeford let the train take the strain. He hasn't got to Glasgow yet, he'll arrive next Tuesday, but his heart was in the right place.
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19688011.cop26-nicola-sturgeon-joins-uk-fms-boris-johnson-breakfast-summit/

    But good for him, as you say.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
    In fairness, COP 26 does look as if it is going to produce a lot more delivery than was once feared and probably about as much as could be achieved given China's lack of interest. Boris has done pretty well there and the effort it has taken has been pretty evident. He looks exhausted.

    But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
    Come on David, he blew his own credibility out of the water by hitching a ride on the Telegraph's Lear jet.
    I accepted that the PM may need to travel by air because its busy being PM. OK not a good luck as you leave your own climate summit early, but it may be required.

    No. Not required. He had a private dinner appointment.
    He could have travelled by (sl)easyjet!
    Or perhaps he could have used the Indonesian budget carrier Lion Air (Lyin' Air)?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318
    With this debacle all over the news I'd love to report even the smallest movement away from Johnson or the Cons in any of the UK politics betting markets I follow - but I'm sorry to say I can't. We're as we were.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 179
    GIN1138 said:

    There cannot be a single Tory MP who now has even the remotest faith in the Prime Minister. Over the last 24 hours he has demonstrated conclusively that he is entirely untrustworthy and someone who is very happy to betray anyone at any time if it is convenient to do so.

    Well everyone has always known that about Boris...

    But...

    He's a WINNER! ;)

    Until that demonstrably changes he's going nowhere.
    The thing about him being “a winner” is all very good until he isn’t a winner. If he trashed the party then next election he won’t be a winner….. it also pre-supposes that there are not any other potential “winners” in the Tory ranks and in reality nobody knows until they know (sorry for the proto-Rumsfeld-ism…).

    It might be that enough Tory MPs look at Boris the winner, look at shiny Rishi, look at Boris and then think that they need a new fresh “winner”.

    Nobody knew Blair was a winner until he won but they could see he was fresh and connected with people. He had a “brand” like Rishi.

    The 1922 chaps need to say to Boris “look old chap, you’ve been PM/world king, you “got Brexit done”, got COP26 done, got a start on levelling up - hand over the hard work of following it through to someone more focussed and enjoy your millions”.

    Or is this too sensible…..

    PS I write this as someone who had optimism that Boris could change and grow into the role but he’s just the wrong personality type. He won, got the Tories in now he should step aside - think of it like getting Big Sam in to save your club from relegation then thank him, pay him off and get someone in who can make the next season a success and avoid the need for a big Sam rescue in the future!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,451
    edited November 4
    Selebian said:

    Interested in this idea that virginity, once gone, is only hard to get back? How do you go about doing that?

    I always thought virginity was more like Darcy's good opinion in Pride & Prejudice.

    There is a plastic surgical speciality, I believe, devoted to exactly that. Depends how hard your credit card is, I assume.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,589
    edited November 4

    In a more (hopefully) useful theme, in the cricket, England qualify as long as their Net Run rate doesn't swing behind South Africa's.

    NRR is an arcane way of tie-breaking (it is arguably fair, but not remotely easy to work out a team's target; I still prefer the suggestion by someone that the team batting second should have their Duckworth-Lewis score at the end credited to them in terms of runs (so could "win by dozens of runs" even batting second, and then do it as runs for and against).

    I've had a crack at the targets for SA batting first and England batting first. For the latter, it requires the final score (so if scores were level before the winning hit, SA could get a maximum of a 6 run victory batting second).

    Here's what I've got for:
    - SA bat first; what must England get?
    - England bat first, how many overs have SA got to knock the runs off?



    The latter is remarkably invariant - if SA successfully chase down England's score in 8 and a half overs or less, they qualify. If they fail to chase down England's score after 9 overs are completed, they're out, win or lose. Between 8 and a half overs and 9 overs, it's down to the calculators.

    In the former, if England knock SA over for 70 or fewer runs, they qualify before even coming out to bat. Above that.

    If SA qualify, what's the range for knocking Eng out compared to knocking Aus out? Does that rely on a reasonable or unreasonable Aus result?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,638
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Stupid, stupid, stupid. I really cannot think of an excuse for this. Presumably Boris was fully focused on COP26 but a moment's thought should have been enough.

    I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.

    Those James Bond metaphors about saving the planet don't write themselves.
    In fairness, COP 26 does look as if it is going to produce a lot more delivery than was once feared and probably about as much as could be achieved given China's lack of interest. Boris has done pretty well there and the effort it has taken has been pretty evident. He looks exhausted.

    But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
    Come on David, he blew his own credibility out of the water by hitching a ride on the Telegraph's Lear jet.
    I am sure that all the others present in Glasgow with their private jets parked up in Prestwick airport FOC courtesy of the Scottish government will have been suitably appalled.
    It's not really the point.

    TSE's hero Mark Drakeford let the train take the strain. He hasn't got to Glasgow yet, he'll arrive next Tuesday, but his heart was in the right place.
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19688011.cop26-nicola-sturgeon-joins-uk-fms-boris-johnson-breakfast-summit/

    But good for him, as you say.
    OK hands up, I might have used some poetic licence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,786
    edited November 4
    Selebian said:

    Interested in this idea that virginity, once gone, is only hard to get back? How do you go about doing that?

    I always thought virginity was more like Darcy's good opinion in Pride & Prejudice.

    Here you go.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51189319.amp

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/aug/14/mps-urged-to-ban-virginity-repair-surgery-as-well-as-virginity-testing
  • TimS said:

    The Tories are very lucky that both North Shropshire and Bexley and Sidcup are rock solid leave voting conservative seats. Even a Martin-Bell type campaign by Stewart would probably not be enough, especially as Paterson himself wouldn't be standing but some new fresh-faced - no doubt impeccably uncorrupt - candidate. It will mean that they have 2 fairly comfortable wins on the trot and can wrest back the momentum.

    If Paterson had been MP for somewhere in the Surrey/Hants/Berks/Bucks remain belt things might be looking somewhat shakier.

    The thing about the coming by-elections is that it won't be the Tory candidate who is under the spotlight, it is the party.

    Had Paterson volunteered to lobby for Her Majesty then they could have campaigned on a clean slate. Instead they have exposed just how bent they are and just how much concern they have at upholding standards in public office.

    So in both byelections I expect their opponents to hammer away massively on how the Tory party and the PM as its leader is openly corrupt. As we saw with yesterday's Starmer opinion piece and the LD attack ad.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,705
    How fitting - the correct outcome but via the wrong process (his 'justice' could have been his constituents showing they backed his stance by not recalling him).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,705
    I guess an incompetent attempt to cover up corruption is technically better than a competent attempt?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    edited November 4
    Cookie said:

    1) Covid snowflakery: Manchester and Salford City Councils have both elected to cancel their bonfires this year because of covid (despite having some of the lowest rates of infections in the country). Parts of the public sector are still addicted to the power rush of last year.
    2) Daughter snowflakery: my six year old daughter complained yesterday that “Mabel said that I always cry. And that’s not respecting my rights!”
    (Arguably, Mabel has a point).

    Yep, I back Mabel here (without any idea who Mabel is). It's just an observation. Now, if Mabel had said "stop crying" that would have been an infringement of daughter's right to express her emotions in her preferred manner.

    Re the bonfires, I suspect the risk from smoke particulate pollution outweighs the Covid risk.

    Edit: On the plus side, when they ban people from tobogganing or having snowball fights etc in public parks due to Covid risk, we'll be able to complain about snowflake snowflakery :smile:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749
    The Covid death rate in parts of Europe is now higher than the peak here before the vaccines.

    image
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,705

    TimS said:

    The Tories are very lucky that both North Shropshire and Bexley and Sidcup are rock solid leave voting conservative seats. Even a Martin-Bell type campaign by Stewart would probably not be enough, especially as Paterson himself wouldn't be standing but some new fresh-faced - no doubt impeccably uncorrupt - candidate. It will mean that they have 2 fairly comfortable wins on the trot and can wrest back the momentum.

    If Paterson had been MP for somewhere in the Surrey/Hants/Berks/Bucks remain belt things might be looking somewhat shakier.

    The thing about the coming by-elections is that it won't be the Tory candidate who is under the spotlight, it is the party.

    Had Paterson volunteered to lobby for Her Majesty then they could have campaigned on a clean slate. Instead they have exposed just how bent they are and just how much concern they have at upholding standards in public office.

    So in both byelections I expect their opponents to hammer away massively on how the Tory party and the PM as its leader is openly corrupt. As we saw with yesterday's Starmer opinion piece and the LD attack ad.
    They will and itll get attention, but people tend to be give the new candidate benefit of the doubt.
  • Don’t forget Claudia Webbe’s sentencing is today.
  • boulay said:

    GIN1138 said:

    There cannot be a single Tory MP who now has even the remotest faith in the Prime Minister. Over the last 24 hours he has demonstrated conclusively that he is entirely untrustworthy and someone who is very happy to betray anyone at any time if it is convenient to do so.

    Well everyone has always known that about Boris...

    But...

    He's a WINNER! ;)

    Until that demonstrably changes he's going nowhere.
    The thing about him being “a winner” is all very good until he isn’t a winner. If he trashed the party then next election he won’t be a winner….. it also pre-supposes that there are not any other potential “winners” in the Tory ranks and in reality nobody knows until they know (sorry for the proto-Rumsfeld-ism…).

    It might be that enough Tory MPs look at Boris the winner, look at shiny Rishi, look at Boris and then think that they need a new fresh “winner”.

    Nobody knew Blair was a winner until he won but they could see he was fresh and connected with people. He had a “brand” like Rishi.

    The 1922 chaps need to say to Boris “look old chap, you’ve been PM/world king, you “got Brexit done”, got COP26 done, got a start on levelling up - hand over the hard work of following it through to someone more focussed and enjoy your millions”.

    Or is this too sensible…..

    PS I write this as someone who had optimism that Boris could change and grow into the role but he’s just the wrong personality type. He won, got the Tories in now he should step aside - think of it like getting Big Sam in to save your club from relegation then thank him, pay him off and get someone in who can make the next season a success and avoid the need for a big Sam rescue in the future!
    Perfect.

    Sam Allardyce for North Shropshire. Its either that or the Newcastle United job.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,638
    edited November 4

    TimS said:

    The Tories are very lucky that both North Shropshire and Bexley and Sidcup are rock solid leave voting conservative seats. Even a Martin-Bell type campaign by Stewart would probably not be enough, especially as Paterson himself wouldn't be standing but some new fresh-faced - no doubt impeccably uncorrupt - candidate. It will mean that they have 2 fairly comfortable wins on the trot and can wrest back the momentum.

    If Paterson had been MP for somewhere in the Surrey/Hants/Berks/Bucks remain belt things might be looking somewhat shakier.

    The thing about the coming by-elections is that it won't be the Tory candidate who is under the spotlight, it is the party.

    Had Paterson volunteered to lobby for Her Majesty then they could have campaigned on a clean slate. Instead they have exposed just how bent they are and just how much concern they have at upholding standards in public office.

    So in both byelections I expect their opponents to hammer away massively on how the Tory party and the PM as its leader is openly corrupt. As we saw with yesterday's Starmer opinion piece and the LD attack ad.
    I genuinely hope Starmer and Davey have the wit to join forces and hold back from North Shropshire, neither can win. However an apolitical anti-sleaze candidate could. Even if the Conservatives don't lose, the fallout from the campaign would cause Johnson an absolute mare nationally.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492

    TimS said:

    The Tories are very lucky that both North Shropshire and Bexley and Sidcup are rock solid leave voting conservative seats. Even a Martin-Bell type campaign by Stewart would probably not be enough, especially as Paterson himself wouldn't be standing but some new fresh-faced - no doubt impeccably uncorrupt - candidate. It will mean that they have 2 fairly comfortable wins on the trot and can wrest back the momentum.

    If Paterson had been MP for somewhere in the Surrey/Hants/Berks/Bucks remain belt things might be looking somewhat shakier.

    The thing about the coming by-elections is that it won't be the Tory candidate who is under the spotlight, it is the party.

    Had Paterson volunteered to lobby for Her Majesty then they could have campaigned on a clean slate. Instead they have exposed just how bent they are and just how much concern they have at upholding standards in public office.

    So in both byelections I expect their opponents to hammer away massively on how the Tory party and the PM as its leader is openly corrupt. As we saw with yesterday's Starmer opinion piece and the LD attack ad.
    Look at the results in the last election though. That's a mountain to climb. I've become inured to them getting away with it, and I suspect they have again. They can point to the u-turn as evidence that they "listened". This affair will be old news and no doubt there will be some new crisis requiring plucky British unity by the time the byelection come along.

    Would love to be proved wrong, but I don't have much hope.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 257
    Top rated comment from readers under the Daily Mail article on Paterson's resignation: "We have an immoral corrupt PM".
This discussion has been closed.