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We have a by election in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
We have a by election in North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com
Owen Paterson to resign as MP for North Shropshire after sleaze row – UK politics live https://t.co/vXpxuXfFoH
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https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1456273007496740875
I don't think that the Tories will be in any rush to move the writ for this one.
The main question, as in Old Bexley and Sidcup, is whether ReformUK can beat the LDs for third place. As the thread header shows the LDs got just 10% in Shropshire North in 2019 and UKIP got 17% in the seat in 2015 when they beat the LDs for third
So, the corrupt Tory Party needs to be shown that it behaviour is not acceptable. An anti-corruption independent is needed, someone who has displayed impeccable honour and standards. With all other major parties standing aside.
Calling Rory Stewart...
The one ex-MP I'd really like to see parachuted in though is Rory Stewart.
Of course Boris will go eventually and a long period of political oblivion will await the Tories when he does I suspect.
The way I see it, Boris wins in 2023 with a reduced (but still healthy) majority, He goes sometime around 2026. Labour win in 2028 and the 2030's are a "Labour decade"
"Vote for this!"
- "But it's wrong..."
"VOTE FOR IT OR ELSE! AND DEFEND IT!"
- "Oh, all right. Got to be loya..."
"That thing we made the MPs vote for was wrong. We're going the other way."
- "Oh, FFS, now we look really stupid."
(Everyone else: "Now you look stupid?")
I suspect that if Tories had any particular aversion from shabby, sleazy and/or ignoble recent British history would have been very different.
Long live Boris the Invincible!
But...
He's a WINNER!
Until that demonstrably changes he's going nowhere.
But with Boris in charge of the party, there's zero chance of Stewart being parachuted into a seat. Unless it's the seat of an electric chair ...
We are governed by these useless idiots and the opposition really are not any better.
What a time to be alive.
@DPJHodges
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26m
Seen some bizarre political scandals. But for sheer insanity I’m not sure anything quite tops this.
Top marks for top satire David!.
Sky News
@SkyNews
· 6h
Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng tells #KayBurley it is "difficult" to see a future for Kathryn Stone, the independent parliamentary commissioner for standards, after her recommendation to suspend Owen Paterson was blocked by Conservative MPs.
(Good video on HistoryMarche about Majorian, who came close to restoring the West but the corruption had sunk so deep he had a similar time of it to Aurelian, but with no Diocletian or Constantine down the line).
I have defended Boris on one thing though: the detractors often go too far, and assume that the same delirious anger and ire they have for him is shared by the public. It isn't, which is one of the reasons why he won the election, and why the Conservatives have a very unusual mid-term lead in the polls. The public like Boris, and do not share BDS.
However: this might not last forever. Boris's fall, if and when it comes, is probably going to be rapid and spectacular.
Is this enough to cause the public to fall out of love with him? Perhaps not. But if not, what will? Time? Brexit disappearing into a distant memory?
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1456219689839890437
But his reluctance to accept any form of accountability for himself or those to whom he chooses to extend his patronage has always been an inherent weakness and this episode just highlights that again. His own position is going to be more problematic given the enhanced status that the Commissioner is going to gain from this too.
I wonder whether Conservative MPs will look at the brink, avoid the fate of the GOP, and start acting like Conservatives, or will they double down and continue back the 'winner' and all the nonsense that goes with it?
Your last thought though - something stupid just got reversed in 24h. The reversal is a huge positive.
Good things can happen.
To hold up a mirror to corruption you need to find someone who is demonstrably good and uncorruptable. Rory Stewart.
No. Not required. He had a private dinner appointment.
“Boris Johnson must now apologise to the entire country for this grubby attempt to cover up for the misdemeanour of his friend. This isn't the first time he's done this but it must be the last. And Boris Johnson must explain how he intends to fix the immense harm he has done...”
“...to confidence in the probity of him and his MPs.”
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1456278734265204741
One of the questions many in Westminster have been asking over the past year and a bit is why the numerous Tory sleaze stories haven't had the sort of cut-through that similar rows and revelations had in the John Major years?
And I really don't know what the answer is...
Overnight they finally read the allegations and his defence (sic) and realised he was guilty as sin.
So there had to be another vote to censure him and nobody wanted to defend that.
NRR is an arcane way of tie-breaking (it is arguably fair, but not remotely easy to work out a team's target; I still prefer the suggestion by someone that the team batting second should have their Duckworth-Lewis score at the end credited to them in terms of runs (so could "win by dozens of runs" even batting second, and then do it as runs for and against).
I've had a crack at the targets for SA batting first and England batting first. For the latter, it requires the final score (so if scores were level before the winning hit, SA could get a maximum of a 6 run victory batting second).
Here's what I've got for:
- SA bat first; what must England get?
- England bat first, how many overs have SA got to knock the runs off?
The latter is remarkably invariant - if SA successfully chase down England's score in 8 and a half overs or less, they qualify. If they fail to chase down England's score after 9 overs are completed, they're out, win or lose. Between 8 and a half overs and 9 overs, it's down to the calculators.
In the former, if England knock SA over for 70 or fewer runs, they qualify before even coming out to bat. Above that.
The paperwork was available online and made it 100% clear why this was the wrong case to do anything with.
Heck I said as much yesterday, no character witness can explain multiple letters (so not a single accidental mistake) where you misrepresent the reason you are writing the letter and fail to mention you are being paid to do so.
In ordinary times I would ask how stupid the Tory party think people are. Sadly we know that they know quite a lot of people are pretty stupid...
I'd like to think this debacle might sink him, but I suspect that he is the turd that won't flush away.
So Owen or someone trying to protect him, misrepresented those facts to try and justify the unjustifiable.
Something which was rebutted extensively.
TSE's hero Mark Drakeford let the train take the strain. He hasn't got to Glasgow yet, he'll arrive next Tuesday, but his heart was in the right place.
If Paterson had been MP for somewhere in the Surrey/Hants/Berks/Bucks remain belt things might be looking somewhat shakier.
I always thought virginity was more like Darcy's good opinion in Pride & Prejudice.
2) Daughter snowflakery: my six year old daughter complained yesterday that “Mabel said that I always cry. And that’s not respecting my rights!”
(Arguably, Mabel has a point).
There’s no way on this earth he could back nonsense like the State Aid bill, stuff that made Lady Thatcher spin in her grave.
But good for him, as you say.
It might be that enough Tory MPs look at Boris the winner, look at shiny Rishi, look at Boris and then think that they need a new fresh “winner”.
Nobody knew Blair was a winner until he won but they could see he was fresh and connected with people. He had a “brand” like Rishi.
The 1922 chaps need to say to Boris “look old chap, you’ve been PM/world king, you “got Brexit done”, got COP26 done, got a start on levelling up - hand over the hard work of following it through to someone more focussed and enjoy your millions”.
Or is this too sensible…..
PS I write this as someone who had optimism that Boris could change and grow into the role but he’s just the wrong personality type. He won, got the Tories in now he should step aside - think of it like getting Big Sam in to save your club from relegation then thank him, pay him off and get someone in who can make the next season a success and avoid the need for a big Sam rescue in the future!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51189319.amp
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/aug/14/mps-urged-to-ban-virginity-repair-surgery-as-well-as-virginity-testing
Had Paterson volunteered to lobby for Her Majesty then they could have campaigned on a clean slate. Instead they have exposed just how bent they are and just how much concern they have at upholding standards in public office.
So in both byelections I expect their opponents to hammer away massively on how the Tory party and the PM as its leader is openly corrupt. As we saw with yesterday's Starmer opinion piece and the LD attack ad.
Re the bonfires, I suspect the risk from smoke particulate pollution outweighs the Covid risk.
Edit: On the plus side, when they ban people from tobogganing or having snowball fights etc in public parks due to Covid risk, we'll be able to complain about snowflake snowflakery
If Paterson had been a Minister then nothing he did would, at least under the rules as they stand, have been wrong. Well obviously it would have been wrong but it would not have been against the rules.
I find that quite extraordinary.
Sam Allardyce for North Shropshire. Its either that or the Newcastle United job.
Would love to be proved wrong, but I don't have much hope.
This is eerily similar to what happened yesterday, and deeply worrying for democratic standards.