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The battle against COVID could go on for years – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 21 in General
imageThe battle against COVID could go on for years – politicalbetting.com

There will come a time, I am sure, when the fight against COVID doesn’t dominate the news but we are a long way off that. The sheer scale of the latest numbers is a sharp reminder that now is not the time to relax as appeared to be happening.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.
  • Morning all. Quiet on here this morning.

    With vaccine efficacy "only" in the mid-90% range, then somewhere in excess of 2 million fully vaccinated people are vulnerable to full infection. Then factor in the effect of age among those 2 million plus and a six-figure number will face significant illness this winter. Many will need hospital this winter. This is the inexorable logic of the mathematics.

    We will see a third wave.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158

    Morning all. Quiet on here this morning.

    With vaccine efficacy "only" in the mid-90% range, then somewhere in excess of 2 million fully vaccinated people are vulnerable to full infection. Then factor in the effect of age among those 2 million plus and a six-figure number will face significant illness this winter. Many will need hospital this winter. This is the inexorable logic of the mathematics.

    We will see a third wave.

    And it is why anti-vaxxers and people not taking the vaccines because they're in-duh-viduals are being such utter sh*ts. They're causing a social harm, and should be treated as such.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    The scale of the latest numbers being described as “sheer” is a consequence of those who shouted loudest about Government “recklessness” in July, now feeling emboldened to have another go despite all of the current numbers being better than the “plausible best case scenarios” upon which they based the July criticisms.

    It is almost certainly true that the NHS is under severe pressure, with lengthy waits for patients and demoralised staff. But largely this is a consequence of the effects of Covid over the last 18 months, not specifically what is going on now. And of course it is pretty much a built in feature of the winter NHS model (and elevated within our political and media environment - see graphic circulating for example of Guardian pre winter NHS headlines going back a decade - there’s very much a “boy who cried wolf” element)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,574
    Bristol airport absolutely rammed.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,714
    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.


    You are also assuming that the “slow kids rollout” is actually something the Govt are particularly concerned about. Underlying the Govt strategy since July seems to have been a clear herd immunity strategy - get as many kids infected as possible before vaccines in the old and vulnerable wane and before the worst of winter kicks in. It is perfectly plausible that this has actually been stunningly effective and could contribute to far better outcomes over the next few months than doomsayers predict. There is already a realistic chance of numbers falling in coming weeks due to a collapse in kids numbers (which a half term effect compounding).

    The messaging on boosters needs refining, but not perhaps just in obvious ways. I’ve seen people complaining and apparently hysterical that they can’t get their booster “until December”. The fact that this means they only got their second jab four months ago, and therefore there is no evidence that they aren’t sufficiently protected until December seems to have completely passed them by. I think some people would get jabbed every month if they could!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    Re: herd immunity - they even said it at the time - not just the Govt, but the CMO, CSO, etc. There WILL be an exit wave and it is imperative that we get as much of it out of the way as possible before winter hence reluctance to delay “freedom day” too long). If anything if there is a problem it could be not that the numbers currently are too high, but actually that they aren’t high enough!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    pigeon said:

    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    The scale of the latest numbers being described as “sheer” is a consequence of those who shouted loudest about Government “recklessness” in July, now feeling emboldened to have another go despite all of the current numbers being better than the “plausible best case scenarios” upon which they based the July criticisms.
    That's exactly right. SAGE release their latest tranche of models, which have previously been shown to have all the predictive value of Mystic Meg's bag of runes, and the newspapers are back into blind panic mode yet again.

    The Government is right to resist the collapse back into lockdown: the demand for restrictions by hospital administrators and the catastrophist wing of the epidemiological community will be utterly insatiable. Compulsory face gags everywhere won't be enough. Nothing that the Government does is ever enough for them. After masks will come the 2m rule, then the rule of six, then business closures, and before we know it Christmas will be cancelled and we'll be incarcerated until Easter all over again. So ministers may as well dig in their heels and resist now, rather than later.

    Remember, there is an NHS Winter Crisis every single year. If restrictions become seen as a routine tool with which to mitigate it then there will end up being restrictions every single year as well, forever. This has to be stopped. I've no doubt that the pressures on the healthcare system are real and very serious, but ultimately this is a country that contains an NHS and not an NHS with an afterthought of a country bolted on the side.

    If we try to put society into some form of hibernation where we isolate from one another and try to communicate through screens for half of every year, then the economy will collapse and we shall all go stir crazy. Enough.
    You chopped off my second paragraph to say it again in a different way ;)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    The BBC covers a multi-billion euro tax fraud.

    The so-called "cum-ex" affair involved US pension funds, German banks, London-based investment bankers, international lawyers and many others.

    It focused on huge share trades which were carried out with the sole purpose of generating multiple refunds of a tax that had only been paid once.

    ...

    "Germany was obviously a key target. But the mind and the driving force was clearly in London. It was a London-orchestrated fraud, managed by US funds."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58984814

    All Gordon Brown's fault, I'll be bound.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    Good morning all. Def.colder this morning.
    Winter draws on. Or something like that!.
    However managed to get out and about again for an hour yesterday. No-one wearing masks; it would appear that the only places doing so locally are the pharmacy and the surgery.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    Lorry drivers need rest facilities

    The BBC's inspiring tale of a lady lorry driver mentions again the disappearance and consequent lack of service stations, something it should perhaps consider fixing in order to improve driver retention. Clearly it cannot be left to the private sector, or at least not without incentives or allowances.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-58967292
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    edited October 21
    Bit of mis-gendering in the Herald (unless those stories are true...)

    SIR Keir Starmer has accused Nicola Sturgeon of mishandling the Covid pandemic as badly as Boris Johnson, and said her record across government is “appalling”.

    The UK Labour leader lambasted the First Minister’s response to the pandemic, saying her communication may have been better than the Prime Minister, but not her actions.

    Sir Keir also accused Mr Sturgeon of using the constitutional debate to distract and disguise her failures in power on education and inequality as well as on the health service.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19660493.sir-keir-starmer-appalling-nicola-sturgeon-mishandled-covid-pandemic-badly-boris-johnson/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    Good news on progress against drug gangs. Let us hope it is followed by a reduction in gang violence and murders on the streets, rather than just a slight increase in the cost of hosting a fashionable dinner party.

    Nearly 1,500 people have been arrested in England and Wales in a week-long operation against so-called county lines drug dealing networks.

    Police say they have started focusing on senior figures controlling phone numbers used to sell drugs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58989795
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936

    Good news on progress against drug gangs.

    Although one wonders if they'll simply move their businesses into prison....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,740

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,909
    I've just been invited for a booster jab. Six months after my second. All seems to be going to plan. Panic restricted to newspaper headlines.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    making?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,740
    Morning all.

    This looks like an "it is almost certainly true that (assumption)" argument day, so I may be somewhat absent :smile: .
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,022

    Good news on progress against drug gangs. Let us hope it is followed by a reduction in gang violence and murders on the streets, rather than just a slight increase in the cost of hosting a fashionable dinner party.

    Nearly 1,500 people have been arrested in England and Wales in a week-long operation against so-called county lines drug dealing networks.

    Police say they have started focusing on senior figures controlling phone numbers used to sell drugs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58989795

    Or maybe by legalisation so we put the gangs out of business altogether?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821

    Good morning all. Def.colder this morning.
    Winter draws on. Or something like that!.
    However managed to get out and about again for an hour yesterday. No-one wearing masks; it would appear that the only places doing so locally are the pharmacy and the surgery.

    Good morning. Cold yes but an awesome full moon here.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    Just imagine if we'd been within SAGE's "central assumption"? The NHS would presumably already be in a state of total and utter meltdown. As opposed to the state of total and utter meltdown that you would be forgiven for believing it is this morning based on the headlines. Dare i suggest it would be in a state of almost total and utter meltdown if Covid was bobbing along at New Zealand levels (incidentally if you read New Zealand news you might get the impression that the NZ health system is currently approaching meltdown if not already there. And they're almost in summer...)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    Really? Motes & beams.....
    Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi singles out the U.K.’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic as a great example of what not to do



    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1450937645874487298?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191

    Really? Motes & beams.....
    Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi singles out the U.K.’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic as a great example of what not to do



    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1450937645874487298?s=20

    And that's confirmed deaths, which in the UK have exceeded excess deaths and in Italy are a fraction of excess deaths.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    alex_ said:

    Just imagine if we'd been within SAGE's "central assumption"? The NHS would presumably already be in a state of total and utter meltdown. As opposed to the state of total and utter meltdown that you would be forgiven for believing it is this morning based on the headlines. Dare i suggest it would be in a state of almost total and utter meltdown if Covid was bobbing along at New Zealand levels (incidentally if you read New Zealand news you might get the impression that the NZ health system is currently approaching meltdown if not already there. And they're almost in summer...)
    Singapore has had a similar panicked reaction - with over 1,000 ICU beds and 34 of them with COVID patients in them they've gone back into lockdown.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    alex_ said:

    Just imagine if we'd been within SAGE's "central assumption"? The NHS would presumably already be in a state of total and utter meltdown. As opposed to the state of total and utter meltdown that you would be forgiven for believing it is this morning based on the headlines. Dare i suggest it would be in a state of almost total and utter meltdown if Covid was bobbing along at New Zealand levels (incidentally if you read New Zealand news you might get the impression that the NZ health system is currently approaching meltdown if not already there. And they're almost in summer...)
    Singapore has had a similar panicked reaction - with over 1,000 ICU beds and 34 of them with COVID patients in them they've gone back into lockdown.....
    1000 sounds rather high. We have only a few times that for a much bigger country.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    Only 25% of the value of a car will need to be created in the UK and/or NZ to qualify for tariff-free trade. (Usually ~55%.) Pretty much guarantees UK-produced cars will qualify.

    https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1451075432154025985?s=20
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    edited October 21
    Fishing said:

    Good news on progress against drug gangs. Let us hope it is followed by a reduction in gang violence and murders on the streets, rather than just a slight increase in the cost of hosting a fashionable dinner party.

    Nearly 1,500 people have been arrested in England and Wales in a week-long operation against so-called county lines drug dealing networks.

    Police say they have started focusing on senior figures controlling phone numbers used to sell drugs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58989795

    Or maybe by legalisation so we put the gangs out of business altogether?
    What might be helpful is either end drugs' social acceptability amongst media and political classes (we all remember Tory leadership contenders queueing to get their drugs confessions into print) or at the other extreme, full legalisation leading to the drugs trade becoming corporate, like fags and booze.

    ETA deleted paragraph written after I misread legalisation as legislation. These new eye drops are blurring my vision, contrary to the assurances of the optician.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,183
    What I find a bit bewildering is that this happens time after time and everyone in the media at least just ignores how far off the previous estimates were. Yesterday the Saj was forecasting 100k cases a day. Again. Why will these people not take bets based on their mathematical forecasts? It’s frustrating.
    FWIW my forecast is that we are at or at least very near the current peak, that we will see the average number of cases start to edge down within 10 days and while there may well be another wave in November ( just in time for some more Christmas hysteria) that we will never get anywhere near 100k cases a day.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    The scale of the latest numbers being described as “sheer” is a consequence of those who shouted loudest about Government “recklessness” in July, now feeling emboldened to have another go despite all of the current numbers being better than the “plausible best case scenarios” upon which they based the July criticisms.

    It is almost certainly true that the NHS is under severe pressure, with lengthy waits for patients and demoralised staff. But largely this is a consequence of the effects of Covid over the last 18 months, not specifically what is going on now. And of course it is pretty much a built in feature of the winter NHS model (and elevated within our political and media environment - see graphic circulating for example of Guardian pre winter NHS headlines going back a decade - there’s very much a “boy who cried wolf” element)
    Couple of points to add:

    1) The NHS is also under severe pressure due to long term policy mistakes and underfunding. That’s nothing to do with Covid, what Covid has done rather (as with the DfE) is expose its shortcomings in a way that can’t be ignored. That’s not in any way to disparage the formidable pressure @Foxy and his colleagues are under. Nor is it to say their stance on ‘do anything to relieve this’ is not totally understandable. Been there, done that. But equally, that’s not going to be solved by random lockdowns.

    2) However, balances need to be hit. There’s little point in saving the NHS if you collapse the hospitality sector and education system in consequence. Masks, in particular, may stop the spread of Covid (although the evidence is mixed) but used in classrooms make good education utterly impossible. And it’s in classrooms that this is spreading. Wearing or not wearing masks in Tesco will make very little difference by comparison.

    3) Finally, if we’re not free of it now when the overwhelming majority of the population has been vaccinated bar certifiable lunatics, conspiracy theorists and drunks, we never will be, so we have to learn to live with it. Reimposing random restrictions on a knee-jerk basis isn’t going to improve matters. Arguably, it will make them worse by concentrating waves of infectious diseases in clusters.

    Lockdowns and restrictions were the right thing to do at the start, including at the start of the year. That time has now passed.
    I don't disagree much with this, though I think there is some scope for simple measures to help, such as working from home, vaccine passports for larger events, masks in poorly ventilated spaces such as public transport. None of these really impact on economic or cultural activity.

    Also, don't expect action on waiting lists at the same time as managing a 4th wave.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936

    Really? Motes & beams.....
    Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi singles out the U.K.’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic as a great example of what not to do



    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1450937645874487298?s=20

    And that's confirmed deaths, which in the UK have exceeded excess deaths and in Italy are a fraction of excess deaths.
    Certainly a bigger gap:


  • felixfelix Posts: 13,714

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    I hope that Tory MPs don't start messing around "signalling" by wearing stupid cloth masks in the chamber.

    There's a reason that Labour MPs didn't bother wearing them in their even more packed Party Conference.

    There is absolutely no reason to start donning masks again.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,714
    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    The scale of the latest numbers being described as “sheer” is a consequence of those who shouted loudest about Government “recklessness” in July, now feeling emboldened to have another go despite all of the current numbers being better than the “plausible best case scenarios” upon which they based the July criticisms.

    It is almost certainly true that the NHS is under severe pressure, with lengthy waits for patients and demoralised staff. But largely this is a consequence of the effects of Covid over the last 18 months, not specifically what is going on now. And of course it is pretty much a built in feature of the winter NHS model (and elevated within our political and media environment - see graphic circulating for example of Guardian pre winter NHS headlines going back a decade - there’s very much a “boy who cried wolf” element)
    Couple of points to add:

    1) The NHS is also under severe pressure due to long term policy mistakes and underfunding. That’s nothing to do with Covid, what Covid has done rather (as with the DfE) is expose its shortcomings in a way that can’t be ignored. That’s not in any way to disparage the formidable pressure @Foxy and his colleagues are under. Nor is it to say their stance on ‘do anything to relieve this’ is not totally understandable. Been there, done that. But equally, that’s not going to be solved by random lockdowns.

    2) However, balances need to be hit. There’s little point in saving the NHS if you collapse the hospitality sector and education system in consequence. Masks, in particular, may stop the spread of Covid (although the evidence is mixed) but used in classrooms make good education utterly impossible. And it’s in classrooms that this is spreading. Wearing or not wearing masks in Tesco will make very little difference by comparison.

    3) Finally, if we’re not free of it now when the overwhelming majority of the population has been vaccinated bar certifiable lunatics, conspiracy theorists and drunks, we never will be, so we have to learn to live with it. Reimposing random restrictions on a knee-jerk basis isn’t going to improve matters. Arguably, it will make them worse by concentrating waves of infectious diseases in clusters.

    Lockdowns and restrictions were the right thing to do at the start, including at the start of the year. That time has now passed.
    Surely they are not the only options though. Modest measures to encourage more care and responsibility could make a big difference.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Just imagine if we'd been within SAGE's "central assumption"? The NHS would presumably already be in a state of total and utter meltdown. As opposed to the state of total and utter meltdown that you would be forgiven for believing it is this morning based on the headlines. Dare i suggest it would be in a state of almost total and utter meltdown if Covid was bobbing along at New Zealand levels (incidentally if you read New Zealand news you might get the impression that the NZ health system is currently approaching meltdown if not already there. And they're almost in summer...)
    Singapore has had a similar panicked reaction - with over 1,000 ICU beds and 34 of them with COVID patients in them they've gone back into lockdown.....
    1000 sounds rather high. We have only a few times that for a much bigger country.
    I may have muddled ICU with isolation - these are the most recent numbers:


    SINGAPORE - The surge in Covid-19 cases has placed significant pressure and strain on public hospitals here, with 89 per cent of the 1,650 isolation beds and 67 per cent of intensive care unit (ICU) beds occupied.

    There are currently about 200 ICU beds for Covid-19 patients. Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said on Wednesday (Oct 20) that 71 are occupied by intubated patients - those who are hooked up to a ventilator to help them breathe.

    He added that Covid-19 patients stay an average 15 days in the ICU, but the longest stay can be up to a month.


    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/singapore-hospitals-under-significant-pressure-two-thirds-of-covid-19-icu-beds

    As ever its either "getting ahead of the curve" or "over-reaction"......
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,183

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
    £43.4bn down fiscal year to date from March is absolutely remarkable.

    The ONS were miles out. As many of us said they would be at the time.

    And yet still all we hear from the Treasury is talk of tax rises. The Chancellor should take that £43.4 bn and cancel the NI hike.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Its here and its never going to stop being here.

    All masks and WFH do is kick the can down the road further into winter and the inevitable NHS crisis.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    LOL. No. We are nowhere near back to normal. Not by a long f***ing shot.

    100+ people are dying from/with Covid each day. Thousands are being infected. Hospitals are under pressure, and existing patients are facing far longer waits than usual.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    5% off bulldozers:

    Reaching Agreement in Principle with New Zealand will bring our two like-minded countries closer & bring benefits to UK businesses and workers.

    Here are the top 10 benefits


    https://twitter.com/annietrev/status/1451074846738239488?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    LOL. No. We are nowhere near back to normal. Not by a long f***ing shot.

    100+ people are dying from/with Covid each day. Thousands are being infected. Hospitals are under pressure, and existing patients are facing far longer waits than usual.
    And who says that isn't normal? "The new normal"?

    The reason people are facing longer waits is because things were postponed and distancing was implemented etc reducing capacity. Time to end all that nonsense.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,451
    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Vaccines are the way out of this. Vaccines have broken the link between infection and hospitalisations/deaths.

    Covid is not going away anytime soon. We have to learn to live with it. As we do with any other respiratory condition and, yes, people are going to die from/with it every year as people do at the moment from any manner of conditions.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
    £43.4bn down fiscal year to date from March is absolutely remarkable.

    The ONS were miles out. As many of us said they would be at the time.

    And yet still all we hear from the Treasury is talk of tax rises. The Chancellor should take that £43.4 bn and cancel the NI hike.
    We are still borrowing money for day to day expenditure - much that I dislike the NI hike it has to come from somewhere and while a wealth tax would be better it seemingly won't happen.

    So if you want to employ people expect it to cost more which makes automation easier.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
    £43.4bn down fiscal year to date from March is absolutely remarkable.

    The ONS were miles out. As many of us said they would be at the time.

    And yet still all we hear from the Treasury is talk of tax rises. The Chancellor should take that £43.4 bn and cancel the NI hike.
    We are still borrowing money for day to day expenditure - much that I dislike the NI hike it has to come from somewhere and while a wealth tax would be better it seemingly won't happen.

    So if you want to employ people expect it to cost more which makes automation easier.
    In last year's Budget and the March forecasts the ONS were predicting us to stop borrowing for day to day expenditure within a few years.

    Since then the borrowing has come in consistently below the forecasts, and yet taxes keep going up and being threatened.

    It does not compute.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Vaccines are the way out of this. Vaccines have broken the link between infection and hospitalisations/deaths.

    Covid is not going away anytime soon. We have to learn to live with it. As we do with any other respiratory condition and, yes, people are going to die from/with it every year as people do at the moment from any manner of conditions.
    I don't know who he was, but some guy on Sky News said something like "we don't tolerate other avoidable deaths". Well, winter 2020-21 shows that we very much do tolerate deaths caused by flu etc.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,468

    Good morning all. Def.colder this morning.
    Winter draws on. Or something like that!.
    However managed to get out and about again for an hour yesterday. No-one wearing masks; it would appear that the only places doing so locally are the pharmacy and the surgery.

    Morning OKC, beautiful morning here but cold and crisp.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,468
    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Yes , tell that to the families of the 1000 a week that are dying, what an absolute bampot he is.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    Don’t say it, don’t say it: Another person who works for the government suggested to Playbook that if ministers have been fine with more than 30,000 people being infected with the virus each day for the past three months, potentially rising to 100,000 per day in the coming weeks, with no serious vaccine rollout in schools and the virus spreading like wildfire among children, then that is tantamount to a policy of herd immunity. Official statistics show well over 3 million Britons have had COVID since July, and the real number is likely to be higher. More than one member of the government yesterday told Playbook they hoped in the coming weeks the country would reach a peak level of immunity through a combination of vaccination, boosters and infection — including mass immunity among schoolchildren who’ve had the virus — that case numbers start to decline. Another government official insisted, as always, that herd immunity is not their policy.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/covid-season-3-avid-for-jab-id-what-would-tony-do/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,468

    Only 25% of the value of a car will need to be created in the UK and/or NZ to qualify for tariff-free trade. (Usually ~55%.) Pretty much guarantees UK-produced cars will qualify.

    https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1451075432154025985?s=20

    Wow , I am sure we sell lots of cars to New Zealand, here come those sunny uplands.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    LOL. No. We are nowhere near back to normal. Not by a long f***ing shot.

    100+ people are dying from/with Covid each day. Thousands are being infected. Hospitals are under pressure, and existing patients are facing far longer waits than usual.
    And who says that isn't normal? "The new normal"?

    The reason people are facing longer waits is because things were postponed and distancing was implemented etc reducing capacity. Time to end all that nonsense.
    Yeah. 100+ avoidable deaths a day perfectly fine as long as you are fine.

    I'm not in favour of increased restrictions at the moment. I can easily see that they may be needed in a month or two, though, and I see talk like yours above as being rather cavalier.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
    £43.4bn down fiscal year to date from March is absolutely remarkable.

    The ONS were miles out. As many of us said they would be at the time.

    And yet still all we hear from the Treasury is talk of tax rises. The Chancellor should take that £43.4 bn and cancel the NI hike.
    We are still borrowing money for day to day expenditure - much that I dislike the NI hike it has to come from somewhere and while a wealth tax would be better it seemingly won't happen.

    So if you want to employ people expect it to cost more which makes automation easier.
    In last year's Budget and the March forecasts the ONS were predicting us to stop borrowing for day to day expenditure within a few years.

    Since then the borrowing has come in consistently below the forecasts, and yet taxes keep going up and being threatened.

    It does not compute.
    Do you mean the OBR rather than the ONS?

    I don't care about forecasts, I care about reality. And the reality is that we're still only back to where we were in 2009. There's a long way to go and the reductions get harder the further we go...

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Yes , tell that to the families of the 1000 a week that are dying, what an absolute bampot he is.
    People die, its the natural order of things. Life comes to an end. Upto ten thousand a week die on average anyway.

    What matters isn't that death comes to us all eventually, but what we do with our lives. Ceasing to live our lives because of a paralysing fear of death isn't healthy and is a great waste of life.

    Incarcerating people in their homes so they don't see any loved ones and wither away and die of natural causes isn't "better".
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    edited October 21

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
    £43.4bn down fiscal year to date from March is absolutely remarkable.

    The ONS were miles out. As many of us said they would be at the time.

    And yet still all we hear from the Treasury is talk of tax rises. The Chancellor should take that £43.4 bn and cancel the NI hike.
    We are still borrowing money for day to day expenditure - much that I dislike the NI hike it has to come from somewhere and while a wealth tax would be better it seemingly won't happen.

    So if you want to employ people expect it to cost more which makes automation easier.
    In last year's Budget and the March forecasts the ONS were predicting us to stop borrowing for day to day expenditure within a few years.

    Since then the borrowing has come in consistently below the forecasts, and yet taxes keep going up and being threatened.

    It does not compute.
    It does when you remember that the Government has decided that it needs to spend £10bn a year to fix social care. That is a cost that was never previously something the OBR mentioned.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Just imagine if we'd been within SAGE's "central assumption"? The NHS would presumably already be in a state of total and utter meltdown. As opposed to the state of total and utter meltdown that you would be forgiven for believing it is this morning based on the headlines. Dare i suggest it would be in a state of almost total and utter meltdown if Covid was bobbing along at New Zealand levels (incidentally if you read New Zealand news you might get the impression that the NZ health system is currently approaching meltdown if not already there. And they're almost in summer...)
    Singapore has had a similar panicked reaction - with over 1,000 ICU beds and 34 of them with COVID patients in them they've gone back into lockdown.....
    1000 sounds rather high. We have only a few times that for a much bigger country.
    I may have muddled ICU with isolation - these are the most recent numbers:


    SINGAPORE - The surge in Covid-19 cases has placed significant pressure and strain on public hospitals here, with 89 per cent of the 1,650 isolation beds and 67 per cent of intensive care unit (ICU) beds occupied.

    There are currently about 200 ICU beds for Covid-19 patients. Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said on Wednesday (Oct 20) that 71 are occupied by intubated patients - those who are hooked up to a ventilator to help them breathe.

    He added that Covid-19 patients stay an average 15 days in the ICU, but the longest stay can be up to a month.


    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/singapore-hospitals-under-significant-pressure-two-thirds-of-covid-19-icu-beds

    As ever its either "getting ahead of the curve" or "over-reaction"......
    It is noticeable how often some of these stories are based on effectively self determined metrics that don’t actually say anything about real shortfall in capacity. % of isolation beds occupied says nothing about the capacity to create more isolation beds. % of ICU beds allocated to Covid says nothing about the capacity to allocate increased numbers to Covid.

    The same is true to some extent in the NHS - albeit there genuinely are trade offs (which have to be made every winter) between number of beds available for acute patients, and those available for those undergoing elective surgery. But the NHS is always operating at very high capacity - with I guess the main variable in ICU being between beds actually occupied and those in reserve in particular for potential emergencies arising from surgery. But there are also things like guidelines on nurses per bed/patient, which in extremis can be waived - albeit with the trade off in decline in quality of care and staff morale.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    .@JacindaArdern and I have agreed a new trade deal that will help both the UK and New Zealand build back better from the pandemic.

    Our two countries share deep ties of history, culture and values, and I look forward to the next chapter in our friendship.


    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1451071960985874438?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    eek said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
    £43.4bn down fiscal year to date from March is absolutely remarkable.

    The ONS were miles out. As many of us said they would be at the time.

    And yet still all we hear from the Treasury is talk of tax rises. The Chancellor should take that £43.4 bn and cancel the NI hike.
    We are still borrowing money for day to day expenditure - much that I dislike the NI hike it has to come from somewhere and while a wealth tax would be better it seemingly won't happen.

    So if you want to employ people expect it to cost more which makes automation easier.
    In last year's Budget and the March forecasts the ONS were predicting us to stop borrowing for day to day expenditure within a few years.

    Since then the borrowing has come in consistently below the forecasts, and yet taxes keep going up and being threatened.

    It does not compute.
    It does when you remember that the Government has decided that it needs to spend £10bn a year to fix social care. That is a cost that was never previously something the OBR mentioned.
    So the £43.4bn less we've borrowed year-to-date would cover that £10bn a year in full for nearly a Parliament.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    eek said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
    £43.4bn down fiscal year to date from March is absolutely remarkable.

    The ONS were miles out. As many of us said they would be at the time.

    And yet still all we hear from the Treasury is talk of tax rises. The Chancellor should take that £43.4 bn and cancel the NI hike.
    We are still borrowing money for day to day expenditure - much that I dislike the NI hike it has to come from somewhere and while a wealth tax would be better it seemingly won't happen.

    So if you want to employ people expect it to cost more which makes automation easier.
    In last year's Budget and the March forecasts the ONS were predicting us to stop borrowing for day to day expenditure within a few years.

    Since then the borrowing has come in consistently below the forecasts, and yet taxes keep going up and being threatened.

    It does not compute.
    It does when you remember that the Government has decided that it needs to spend £10bn a year to fix social care. That is a cost that was never previously something the OBR mentioned.
    So the £43.4bn less we've borrowed year-to-date would cover that £10bn a year in full for nearly a Parliament.
    It's still borrowing - and this money should not be coming out of borrowing because it's day to day expenditure....
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,127
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    The scale of the latest numbers being described as “sheer” is a consequence of those who shouted loudest about Government “recklessness” in July, now feeling emboldened to have another go despite all of the current numbers being better than the “plausible best case scenarios” upon which they based the July criticisms.

    It is almost certainly true that the NHS is under severe pressure, with lengthy waits for patients and demoralised staff. But largely this is a consequence of the effects of Covid over the last 18 months, not specifically what is going on now. And of course it is pretty much a built in feature of the winter NHS model (and elevated within our political and media environment - see graphic circulating for example of Guardian pre winter NHS headlines going back a decade - there’s very much a “boy who cried wolf” element)
    Couple of points to add:

    1) The NHS is also under severe pressure due to long term policy mistakes and underfunding. That’s nothing to do with Covid, what Covid has done rather (as with the DfE) is expose its shortcomings in a way that can’t be ignored. That’s not in any way to disparage the formidable pressure @Foxy and his colleagues are under. Nor is it to say their stance on ‘do anything to relieve this’ is not totally understandable. Been there, done that. But equally, that’s not going to be solved by random lockdowns.

    2) However, balances need to be hit. There’s little point in saving the NHS if you collapse the hospitality sector and education system in consequence. Masks, in particular, may stop the spread of Covid (although the evidence is mixed) but used in classrooms make good education utterly impossible. And it’s in classrooms that this is spreading. Wearing or not wearing masks in Tesco will make very little difference by comparison.

    3) Finally, if we’re not free of it now when the overwhelming majority of the population has been vaccinated bar certifiable lunatics, conspiracy theorists and drunks, we never will be, so we have to learn to live with it. Reimposing random restrictions on a knee-jerk basis isn’t going to improve matters. Arguably, it will make them worse by concentrating waves of infectious diseases in clusters.

    Lockdowns and restrictions were the right thing to do at the start, including at the start of the year. That time has now passed.
    I don't disagree much with this, though I think there is some scope for simple measures to help, such as working from home, vaccine passports for larger events, masks in poorly ventilated spaces such as public transport. None of these really impact on economic or cultural activity.

    Also, don't expect action on waiting lists at the same time as managing a 4th wave.

    More people in hospital now with covid than this time last year.

    I don't think a lockdown is likely, but beggars belief that we are not taking the quick wins of masks on public transport, funding for better ventilation in schools, encouraging people to wfh if possible etc.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191

    Don’t say it, don’t say it: Another person who works for the government suggested to Playbook that if ministers have been fine with more than 30,000 people being infected with the virus each day for the past three months, potentially rising to 100,000 per day in the coming weeks, with no serious vaccine rollout in schools and the virus spreading like wildfire among children, then that is tantamount to a policy of herd immunity. Official statistics show well over 3 million Britons have had COVID since July, and the real number is likely to be higher. More than one member of the government yesterday told Playbook they hoped in the coming weeks the country would reach a peak level of immunity through a combination of vaccination, boosters and infection — including mass immunity among schoolchildren who’ve had the virus — that case numbers start to decline. Another government official insisted, as always, that herd immunity is not their policy.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/covid-season-3-avid-for-jab-id-what-would-tony-do/

    Of course herd immunity is the strategy! It's the ONLY strategy.

    Vaccines are the best way to achieve it. For anyone too stupid to get a vaccine they'll need to get it the natural way instead.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 85
    It's clear for everyone to see that a very large number of people won't take basic precautions unless they're told to. Everywhere you go you see people not wearing masks, not social distancing and not sanitising their hands. I can't see a good reason for the government not to transition back to a mask wearing order and advice to work from home if possible. It would cause very little economic pain and is not disproportionately restrictive.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    One of the issues bubbling away in the debate about Scotland’s constitutional status is whether the values to which people in Scotland adhere are similar to those of people in England (as some unionists assert) or whether (as some nationalists argue) they are closer to those of the Nordic countries. This debate turns in particular on whether Scotland has a egalitarian, social democratic outlook that means it finds it more comfortable looking to the Nordic countries as a model to follow than it does the relatively liberal approach to welfare and public services emanating from south of the border. .....In short, it appears that unionists are at risk of exaggerating the similarity of outlook between Scotland and England and nationalists of exaggerating the affinity between Scotland and the Nordic countries.

    https://whatscotlandthinks.org/2021/10/questions-of-values-and-identity/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Yes , tell that to the families of the 1000 a week that are dying, what an absolute bampot he is.
    People die, its the natural order of things. Life comes to an end. Upto ten thousand a week die on average anyway.

    What matters isn't that death comes to us all eventually, but what we do with our lives. Ceasing to live our lives because of a paralysing fear of death isn't healthy and is a great waste of life.

    Incarcerating people in their homes so they don't see any loved ones and wither away and die of natural causes isn't "better".
    How crassly moronic.

    "Up to ten thousand a week die on average anyway."

    Well, that's fine then. How many extra people are you willing to die just so you can feel the fresh air on your bumfluff-ridden face? Why not twenty thousand? Thirty thousand? All for your 'freedom' ...
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Every year, the Oxford Debating Society has a competition where the participants have to spend the year advocating for a difficult cause. At the start of 2021, Philip_Thompson drew the short straw and had to spend twelve months arguing in favour of having Covid spread widely.

    Talk about making the best of a bad hand! I applaud your efforts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    edited October 21
    His thanks explain a lot.....

    Britain is reporting 3x more cases than France, Germany, Italy and Spain combined.
    And Britain's booster rollout is stuttering ahead of the winter.
    Here’s my full story on the situation in the UK: https://cnn.com/2021/10/20/uk/uk-europe-covid-infections-cmd-gbr-intl/index.html

    With thanks to @dgurdasani1 @martinmckee


    https://twitter.com/robpicheta/status/1450740484016680966?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Its here and its never going to stop being here.

    All masks and WFH do is kick the can down the road further into winter and the inevitable NHS crisis.
    And, personally, I'd rather get it now before the holiday season and while the vaccine benefit is relatively strong
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,323
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: trying to decide if 15 each way on Bottas is worth it. Hmm.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,451

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Yes , tell that to the families of the 1000 a week that are dying, what an absolute bampot he is.
    People die, its the natural order of things. Life comes to an end. Upto ten thousand a week die on average anyway.

    What matters isn't that death comes to us all eventually, but what we do with our lives. Ceasing to live our lives because of a paralysing fear of death isn't healthy and is a great waste of life.

    Incarcerating people in their homes so they don't see any loved ones and wither away and die of natural causes isn't "better".
    How crassly moronic.

    "Up to ten thousand a week die on average anyway."

    Well, that's fine then. How many extra people are you willing to die just so you can feel the fresh air on your bumfluff-ridden face? Why not twenty thousand? Thirty thousand? All for your 'freedom' ...
    But surely there has to be a balance. People die in traffic accidents, or of smoking related conditions or drinking related conditions or of any other number of preventable conditions. We do not ban those activities. We certainly mitigate but not to the degree being proposed by some with COVID. We simply cannot keep locking down or applying large scale restrictions. The vaccines have to be the route out of this. This is not about Philips freedom it is about a fully functioning society and we need a fully functioning economy to pay for this.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    edited October 21

    Don’t say it, don’t say it: Another person who works for the government suggested to Playbook that if ministers have been fine with more than 30,000 people being infected with the virus each day for the past three months, potentially rising to 100,000 per day in the coming weeks, with no serious vaccine rollout in schools and the virus spreading like wildfire among children, then that is tantamount to a policy of herd immunity. Official statistics show well over 3 million Britons have had COVID since July, and the real number is likely to be higher. More than one member of the government yesterday told Playbook they hoped in the coming weeks the country would reach a peak level of immunity through a combination of vaccination, boosters and infection — including mass immunity among schoolchildren who’ve had the virus — that case numbers start to decline. Another government official insisted, as always, that herd immunity is not their policy.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/covid-season-3-avid-for-jab-id-what-would-tony-do/

    Of course herd immunity is the strategy! It's the ONLY strategy.

    Vaccines are the best way to achieve it. For anyone too stupid to get a vaccine they'll need to get it the natural way instead.
    There is also a fundamental difference between a “herd immunity (by infection)” strategy involving mass infection of children and generally not at risk, individuals, at a time when the old and/or vulnerable have high levels of vaccine linked protection, and the sort of things floated last year when the only way the latter could even be theoretically be afforded protection was by somehow locking them up for the duration.

    Remembering that the concept of “Covid herd immunity” came to be discredited because of the models of the massive numbers of deaths it would cause, not the concept itself. However much critics like to utilise any herd immunity approach as evil simply by deploying the phrase regardless of what the policy actually involves or its consequences.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Its here and its never going to stop being here.

    All masks and WFH do is kick the can down the road further into winter and the inevitable NHS crisis.
    And, personally, I'd rather get it now before the holiday season and while the vaccine benefit is relatively strong
    If that's truly the case, and you've never had Covid, why aren't you deliberately going out to get infected? Why leave it to chance? Go out and get someone with Covid to cough in your face.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Just imagine if we'd been within SAGE's "central assumption"? The NHS would presumably already be in a state of total and utter meltdown. As opposed to the state of total and utter meltdown that you would be forgiven for believing it is this morning based on the headlines. Dare i suggest it would be in a state of almost total and utter meltdown if Covid was bobbing along at New Zealand levels (incidentally if you read New Zealand news you might get the impression that the NZ health system is currently approaching meltdown if not already there. And they're almost in summer...)
    Singapore has had a similar panicked reaction - with over 1,000 ICU beds and 34 of them with COVID patients in them they've gone back into lockdown.....
    1000 sounds rather high. We have only a few times that for a much bigger country.
    I may have muddled ICU with isolation - these are the most recent numbers:


    SINGAPORE - The surge in Covid-19 cases has placed significant pressure and strain on public hospitals here, with 89 per cent of the 1,650 isolation beds and 67 per cent of intensive care unit (ICU) beds occupied.

    There are currently about 200 ICU beds for Covid-19 patients. Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said on Wednesday (Oct 20) that 71 are occupied by intubated patients - those who are hooked up to a ventilator to help them breathe.

    He added that Covid-19 patients stay an average 15 days in the ICU, but the longest stay can be up to a month.


    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/singapore-hospitals-under-significant-pressure-two-thirds-of-covid-19-icu-beds

    As ever its either "getting ahead of the curve" or "over-reaction"......
    A colleague’s elderly father lives in Singapore and got COVID last week. Hazmat clad officials turned up at his house and gave him a few minutes to prepare before taking him away to a secure isolation facility where he has to stay until recovered.

    Glad I don’t live in a country like Singapore.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    Are you surprised?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    Sorry but thats falling into the media trap. The petrol 'crisis' disappeared as there was never a genuine shortage, and now that news is wrapping fish and chips. Now we are back on corona as the cases have risen a bit (but way, way short of the SAGE BEST case estimates) and the media and iSAGE are having another go. Radio 5 this morning had the usual iSAGE choir - Reicher, Yates, and so on.

    The reality is, away from healthcare, life is good. Everyone tells me London is roaring again. I'm teaching 170 first year students in person, research in my lab is happening. The shops are all open, as are the nightclubs.

    Look from outside the UK and of course you will see the negatives, because that is what is in the media.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Its here and its never going to stop being here.

    All masks and WFH do is kick the can down the road further into winter and the inevitable NHS crisis.
    And, personally, I'd rather get it now before the holiday season and while the vaccine benefit is relatively strong
    Yes exactly (though I’d rather wait until I’ve completed my brief half term trip to France). This is about when not if. I don’t understand why more people don’t talk in those terms, or understand that suppression now means epidemic later.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Agreed with all except the ID cards. Brits absolutely don’t want a DNI (Spanish ID card system), where everyone is on a big database and you can be asked for it all the time in normal life. The NHS database is bad enough.

    Yes, those of us who have lived abroad have seen a variety of systems, but the distinctly British lack of being a number on a database is always appealing.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906

    His thanks explain a lot.....

    Britain is reporting 3x more cases than France, Germany, Italy and Spain combined.
    And Britain's booster rollout is stuttering ahead of the winter.
    Here’s my full story on the situation in the UK: https://cnn.com/2021/10/20/uk/uk-europe-covid-infections-cmd-gbr-intl/index.html

    With thanks to @dgurdasani1 @martinmckee


    https://twitter.com/robpicheta/status/1450740484016680966?s=20

    And strange how they don’t seem to have noticeably fewer people in hospital...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    edited October 21

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Yes , tell that to the families of the 1000 a week that are dying, what an absolute bampot he is.
    People die, its the natural order of things. Life comes to an end. Upto ten thousand a week die on average anyway.

    What matters isn't that death comes to us all eventually, but what we do with our lives. Ceasing to live our lives because of a paralysing fear of death isn't healthy and is a great waste of life.

    Incarcerating people in their homes so they don't see any loved ones and wither away and die of natural causes isn't "better".
    How crassly moronic.

    "Up to ten thousand a week die on average anyway."

    Well, that's fine then. How many extra people are you willing to die just so you can feel the fresh air on your bumfluff-ridden face? Why not twenty thousand? Thirty thousand? All for your 'freedom' ...
    Let's see if we start getting close to these sorts of levels...

    Week ending: 5-year average, deaths, excess
    09-Jan-15: 12,277, 16,237, 3,960
    16-Jan-15: 11,145, 14,866, 3,721
    23-Jan-15: 10,714, 13,934, 3,220
    30-Jan-15: 10,492, 12,900, 2,408
    09-Mar-18: 10,935, 12,997, 2,062
    16-Mar-18: 10,774, 12,788, 2,014

    So far, excluding bank holidays, I think the worst we've had is:

    Week ending: 5-year average, deaths, excess
    17-Sep-21: 9,306, 11,009, 1,703

    Of course, those 1,703 excess deaths aren't just COVID. We have to accept that we owe the reaper c.45,000 deaths from last winter.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476

    Don’t say it, don’t say it: Another person who works for the government suggested to Playbook that if ministers have been fine with more than 30,000 people being infected with the virus each day for the past three months, potentially rising to 100,000 per day in the coming weeks, with no serious vaccine rollout in schools and the virus spreading like wildfire among children, then that is tantamount to a policy of herd immunity. Official statistics show well over 3 million Britons have had COVID since July, and the real number is likely to be higher. More than one member of the government yesterday told Playbook they hoped in the coming weeks the country would reach a peak level of immunity through a combination of vaccination, boosters and infection — including mass immunity among schoolchildren who’ve had the virus — that case numbers start to decline. Another government official insisted, as always, that herd immunity is not their policy.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/covid-season-3-avid-for-jab-id-what-would-tony-do/

    As I keep saying, this is the plan.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,218
    alex_ said:

    Just imagine if we'd been within SAGE's "central assumption"? The NHS would presumably already be in a state of total and utter meltdown. As opposed to the state of total and utter meltdown that you would be forgiven for believing it is this morning based on the headlines. Dare i suggest it would be in a state of almost total and utter meltdown if Covid was bobbing along at New Zealand levels (incidentally if you read New Zealand news you might get the impression that the NZ health system is currently approaching meltdown if not already there. And they're almost in summer...)
    The disease seems to flare up and fall away again. Scotland peaked at 7,500 cases on 2nd September, compared to 2,500 yesterday.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Yes , tell that to the families of the 1000 a week that are dying, what an absolute bampot he is.
    People die, its the natural order of things. Life comes to an end. Upto ten thousand a week die on average anyway.

    What matters isn't that death comes to us all eventually, but what we do with our lives. Ceasing to live our lives because of a paralysing fear of death isn't healthy and is a great waste of life.

    Incarcerating people in their homes so they don't see any loved ones and wither away and die of natural causes isn't "better".
    How crassly moronic.

    "Up to ten thousand a week die on average anyway."

    Well, that's fine then. How many extra people are you willing to die just so you can feel the fresh air on your bumfluff-ridden face? Why not twenty thousand? Thirty thousand? All for your 'freedom' ...
    It's not moronic, it's about priorities.

    Post vaccines? As many as it takes.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    LOL. No. We are nowhere near back to normal. Not by a long f***ing shot.

    100+ people are dying from/with Covid each day. Thousands are being infected. Hospitals are under pressure, and existing patients are facing far longer waits than usual.
    And who says that isn't normal? "The new normal"?

    The reason people are facing longer waits is because things were postponed and distancing was implemented etc reducing capacity. Time to end all that nonsense.
    Yeah. 100+ avoidable deaths a day perfectly fine as long as you are fine.

    I'm not in favour of increased restrictions at the moment. I can easily see that they may be needed in a month or two, though, and I see talk like yours above as being rather cavalier.
    I think some reality is needed about who is dying. We had reports yesterday that the majority are elderly with at least 5 (five) other health conditions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
    £43.4bn down fiscal year to date from March is absolutely remarkable.

    The ONS were miles out. As many of us said they would be at the time.

    And yet still all we hear from the Treasury is talk of tax rises. The Chancellor should take that £43.4 bn and cancel the NI hike.
    We are still borrowing money for day to day expenditure - much that I dislike the NI hike it has to come from somewhere and while a wealth tax would be better it seemingly won't happen.

    So if you want to employ people expect it to cost more which makes automation easier.
    In last year's Budget and the March forecasts the ONS were predicting us to stop borrowing for day to day expenditure within a few years.

    Since then the borrowing has come in consistently below the forecasts, and yet taxes keep going up and being threatened.

    It does not compute.
    It does when you remember that the Government has decided that it needs to spend £10bn a year to fix social care. That is a cost that was never previously something the OBR mentioned.
    So the £43.4bn less we've borrowed year-to-date would cover that £10bn a year in full for nearly a Parliament.
    It's still borrowing - and this money should not be coming out of borrowing because it's day to day expenditure....
    Indeed. Government borrowing should be for investment and cyclical balancing.

    Gordon Brown started the rot, when he described tax credits as “investment”, knowing damn well that he was talking about current spending - which over the economic cycle (which he claimed to have abololished, remember?) should roughly match tax receipts.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Yes , tell that to the families of the 1000 a week that are dying, what an absolute bampot he is.
    People die, its the natural order of things. Life comes to an end. Upto ten thousand a week die on average anyway.

    What matters isn't that death comes to us all eventually, but what we do with our lives. Ceasing to live our lives because of a paralysing fear of death isn't healthy and is a great waste of life.

    Incarcerating people in their homes so they don't see any loved ones and wither away and die of natural causes isn't "better".
    How crassly moronic.

    "Up to ten thousand a week die on average anyway."

    Well, that's fine then. How many extra people are you willing to die just so you can feel the fresh air on your bumfluff-ridden face? Why not twenty thousand? Thirty thousand? All for your 'freedom' ...
    But surely there has to be a balance. People die in traffic accidents, or of smoking related conditions or drinking related conditions or of any other number of preventable conditions. We do not ban those activities. We certainly mitigate but not to the degree being proposed by some with COVID. We simply cannot keep locking down or applying large scale restrictions. The vaccines have to be the route out of this. This is not about Philips freedom it is about a fully functioning society and we need a fully functioning economy to pay for this.
    Of course there has to be a balance.

    I am not in favour of a return to harder restrictions at the moment. It seems a fine-edged thing, though, and the last 18 months have shown us that if you're not careful, when restrictions are required, they're required suddenly.

    Hopefully enough kids are getting Covid that we'll be at herd immunity soon, and then figures will plummet. However, herd immunity's been called out many times before during this crisis, and we're not there yet. This s***** little B****er of a virus is a survivor, and may yet surprise us. Again.

    And that's where PT is being complacent. He is unwilling to see people do even the smallest measures to protect themselves and others, because for some reason it is offensive to him. He callously disregards unnecessary deaths - possibly because it's not his own death. His argument could be used if we have 100 extra deaths a day, or a thousand. Or ten thousand.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    Stereodog said:

    It's clear for everyone to see that a very large number of people won't take basic precautions unless they're told to. Everywhere you go you see people not wearing masks, not social distancing and not sanitising their hands. I can't see a good reason for the government not to transition back to a mask wearing order and advice to work from home if possible. It would cause very little economic pain and is not disproportionately restrictive.

    Because that is no longer the law in this country. Social distancing is no longer in use in official guidance.

    Yes you can argue they should be, but you shouldn't blame people for not taking basic precautions. Not everyone is scared of covid. If you are jabbed and under 60 you will most likely get a bad cold at worst.
    This thread is another in the split in how people are seeing the pandemic.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    Looks like Guernsey is going to encourage greater mask use in indoor public spaces as cases reach highest levels since February:



    Based on previous response to restrictions I suspect this will be widely observed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    alex_ said:

    His thanks explain a lot.....

    Britain is reporting 3x more cases than France, Germany, Italy and Spain combined.
    And Britain's booster rollout is stuttering ahead of the winter.
    Here’s my full story on the situation in the UK: https://cnn.com/2021/10/20/uk/uk-europe-covid-infections-cmd-gbr-intl/index.html

    With thanks to @dgurdasani1 @martinmckee


    https://twitter.com/robpicheta/status/1450740484016680966?s=20

    And strange how they don’t seem to have noticeably fewer people in hospital...
    And which of them have fewer restrictions than we do?

    That's the only metric that matters post vaccinations.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    It’s not past Philip, it’s very much still here. We need to flatten the curve in the least intrusive and economically damaging way. That may involve the more widespread use of masks again and more encouragement to WFH. We need tools we can draw on which don’t bring everything to a halt.
    Yes , tell that to the families of the 1000 a week that are dying, what an absolute bampot he is.
    People die, its the natural order of things. Life comes to an end. Upto ten thousand a week die on average anyway.

    What matters isn't that death comes to us all eventually, but what we do with our lives. Ceasing to live our lives because of a paralysing fear of death isn't healthy and is a great waste of life.

    Incarcerating people in their homes so they don't see any loved ones and wither away and die of natural causes isn't "better".
    How crassly moronic.

    "Up to ten thousand a week die on average anyway."

    Well, that's fine then. How many extra people are you willing to die just so you can feel the fresh air on your bumfluff-ridden face? Why not twenty thousand? Thirty thousand? All for your 'freedom' ...
    It's not moronic, it's about priorities.

    Post vaccines? As many as it takes.
    There we have it: as many deaths as it takes, just so you can have your 'freedom'.

    I'm all right, Jack...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,936
    German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has a blunt message for her European counterparts: Forget your lofty ideas about the Continent defending itself and get real.

    Kramp-Karrenbauer is doubling down on her dismissal of the idea of European strategic autonomy, which sparked a diplomatic blow-up with French President Emmanuel Macron, and which she sees as farther off than ever.

    While some European leaders have declared the chaotic U.S.-led withdrawal from Afghanistan shows Europe must be able to operate more on its own militarily, Kramp-Karrenbauer has drawn the opposite conclusion: She argues the debacle demonstrates that Europe and the U.S. need to cooperate more closely to be more effective militarily.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-defense-minister-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-eu-nato/
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    Borrowing (PSNB ex) in September 2021 was £21.8 billion, down around a quarter from last year. Financial year-to-September borrowing was £108.1 billion, now £43.4 billion below OBR’s March forecast profile.

    https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20

    Just reported on Today programme.

    BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/dzls/pusf

    I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
    £43.4bn down fiscal year to date from March is absolutely remarkable.

    The ONS were miles out. As many of us said they would be at the time.

    And yet still all we hear from the Treasury is talk of tax rises. The Chancellor should take that £43.4 bn and cancel the NI hike.
    OBR not ONS. OBR produces the forecasts, ONS produces the actual data.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,158

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    LOL. No. We are nowhere near back to normal. Not by a long f***ing shot.

    100+ people are dying from/with Covid each day. Thousands are being infected. Hospitals are under pressure, and existing patients are facing far longer waits than usual.
    And who says that isn't normal? "The new normal"?

    The reason people are facing longer waits is because things were postponed and distancing was implemented etc reducing capacity. Time to end all that nonsense.
    Yeah. 100+ avoidable deaths a day perfectly fine as long as you are fine.

    I'm not in favour of increased restrictions at the moment. I can easily see that they may be needed in a month or two, though, and I see talk like yours above as being rather cavalier.
    I think some reality is needed about who is dying. We had reports yesterday that the majority are elderly with at least 5 (five) other health conditions.
    Yep.

    However:
    1) 'The majority'. Many are not.
    2) Many of these people are living fulfilling lives, enjoying themselves. Their families enjoy their times with them. The idea they are somehow all 'ready' for death is far from correct. They do not need to die.

    The one person I know who has died of Covid was in his eighties. He had a couple of underlying issues, but they were managed and he was very active with friends and family. He was out and about every day, driving to various clubs and events. The people dying are not all in care homes.

    And we will all (hopefully) be old one day.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    LOL. No. We are nowhere near back to normal. Not by a long f***ing shot.

    100+ people are dying from/with Covid each day. Thousands are being infected. Hospitals are under pressure, and existing patients are facing far longer waits than usual.
    And who says that isn't normal? "The new normal"?

    The reason people are facing longer waits is because things were postponed and distancing was implemented etc reducing capacity. Time to end all that nonsense.
    Yeah. 100+ avoidable deaths a day perfectly fine as long as you are fine.

    I'm not in favour of increased restrictions at the moment. I can easily see that they may be needed in a month or two, though, and I see talk like yours above as being rather cavalier.
    I think some reality is needed about who is dying. We had reports yesterday that the majority are elderly with at least 5 (five) other health conditions.
    Yep.

    However:
    1) 'The majority'. Many are not.
    2) Many of these people are living fulfilling lives, enjoying themselves. Their families enjoy their times with them. The idea they are somehow all 'ready' for death is far from correct. They do not need to die.

    The one person I know who has died of Covid was in his eighties. He had a couple of underlying issues, but they were managed and he was very active with friends and family. He was out and about every day, driving to various clubs and events. The people dying are not all in care homes.

    And we will all (hopefully) be old one day.
    Why would you want to be old? That's nothing to aspire to. Better to be another powdered skull on the road to PT's freedom.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,526
    If wearing masks is so important to Labour MPs then why were none of them wearing them at the Labour Party Conference in a packed, un-socially distanced conference hall?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833

    The BBC covers a multi-billion euro tax fraud.

    The so-called "cum-ex" affair involved US pension funds, German banks, London-based investment bankers, international lawyers and many others.

    It focused on huge share trades which were carried out with the sole purpose of generating multiple refunds of a tax that had only been paid once.

    ...

    "Germany was obviously a key target. But the mind and the driving force was clearly in London. It was a London-orchestrated fraud, managed by US funds."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58984814

    All Gordon Brown's fault, I'll be bound.

    I’ve only read the article you linked to but it looks like a fairly straightforward case of tax fraud. Shoehorning “London” into it as “orchestrating” is a bit of a stretch - as alleged these were corrupt employees of German banks
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The "sheer scale of the latest numbers" is down almost entirely to the mixed messaging, heel dragging and completely shit schools/kids rollout.

    I don't agree - I think the public must bear some personal responsibility here as well - the rapid abandonment of masks for example, really predated any government actions. The reluctance to tolerate any restrictions on personal freedoms, frequently shown on here, to me seems childish at times. In Spain, where I live masks, for example, remain pretty universal indoors and I sense the attitude of mind is that this is a small sacrifice for staying a little safer. Rather like the attitude to ID cards and Covid certificates - 'not ideal but the benefits outweigh the risks'. The UK attitude seems quite different and that is fair enough, but it is not consequence free.

    Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
    responsibility.
    Because relative to vaccines cloth masks are absolute garbage. Scotland's kept them and what kind of material difference has it made other than making the country a more miserable place than England?
    Plenty of people wear masks that are effective. Try comparing Spain & the UK current data. Besides it's not just about mask wearing, it's about attitude. From outside things in the UK are looking quite grim now - a view confirmed by many UK contacts.
    From inside thing in the UK are pretty great right now. We've dropped the masks and all the other gibberish and are getting back to normal.

    The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.

    I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
    LOL. No. We are nowhere near back to normal. Not by a long f***ing shot.

    100+ people are dying from/with Covid each day. Thousands are being infected. Hospitals are under pressure, and existing patients are facing far longer waits than usual.
    And who says that isn't normal? "The new normal"?

    The reason people are facing longer waits is because things were postponed and distancing was implemented etc reducing capacity. Time to end all that nonsense.
    Yeah. 100+ avoidable deaths a day perfectly fine as long as you are fine.

    I'm not in favour of increased restrictions at the moment. I can easily see that they may be needed in a month or two, though, and I see talk like yours above as being rather cavalier.
    I think some reality is needed about who is dying. We had reports yesterday that the majority are elderly with at least 5 (five) other health conditions.
    Yep.

    However:
    1) 'The majority'. Many are not.
    2) Many of these people are living fulfilling lives, enjoying themselves. Their families enjoy their times with them. The idea they are somehow all 'ready' for death is far from correct. They do not need to die.

    The one person I know who has died of Covid was in his eighties. He had a couple of underlying issues, but they were managed and he was very active with friends and family. He was out and about every day, driving to various clubs and events. The people dying are not all in care homes.

    And we will all (hopefully) be old one day.
    Totally fair comment, and I don't want anyone to die unnecessarily, but there needs to be a reality check that is missing in a some commentary. There was a slide last night showing vaccinated vs unvaccinated rates of death. Every anti-vaxxer or idiot who has refused the FREE vaccine needs to look at that and wonder if maybe they've been reading the wrong stuff on their social media.
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