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The battle against COVID could go on for years – politicalbetting.com
The battle against COVID could go on for years – politicalbetting.com
There will come a time, I am sure, when the fight against COVID doesn’t dominate the news but we are a long way off that. The sheer scale of the latest numbers is a sharp reminder that now is not the time to relax as appeared to be happening.
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With vaccine efficacy "only" in the mid-90% range, then somewhere in excess of 2 million fully vaccinated people are vulnerable to full infection. Then factor in the effect of age among those 2 million plus and a six-figure number will face significant illness this winter. Many will need hospital this winter. This is the inexorable logic of the mathematics.
We will see a third wave.
It is almost certainly true that the NHS is under severe pressure, with lengthy waits for patients and demoralised staff. But largely this is a consequence of the effects of Covid over the last 18 months, not specifically what is going on now. And of course it is pretty much a built in feature of the winter NHS model (and elevated within our political and media environment - see graphic circulating for example of Guardian pre winter NHS headlines going back a decade - there’s very much a “boy who cried wolf” element)
Just blaming the government/authority all the time just come across as an abdication of personal
responsibility.
You are also assuming that the “slow kids rollout” is actually something the Govt are particularly concerned about. Underlying the Govt strategy since July seems to have been a clear herd immunity strategy - get as many kids infected as possible before vaccines in the old and vulnerable wane and before the worst of winter kicks in. It is perfectly plausible that this has actually been stunningly effective and could contribute to far better outcomes over the next few months than doomsayers predict. There is already a realistic chance of numbers falling in coming weeks due to a collapse in kids numbers (which a half term effect compounding).
The messaging on boosters needs refining, but not perhaps just in obvious ways. I’ve seen people complaining and apparently hysterical that they can’t get their booster “until December”. The fact that this means they only got their second jab four months ago, and therefore there is no evidence that they aren’t sufficiently protected until December seems to have completely passed them by. I think some people would get jabbed every month if they could!
The Government is right to resist the collapse back into lockdown: the demand for restrictions by hospital administrators and the catastrophist wing of the epidemiological community will be utterly insatiable. Compulsory face gags everywhere won't be enough. Nothing that the Government does is ever enough for them. After masks will come the 2m rule, then the rule of six, then business closures, and before we know it Christmas will be cancelled and we'll be incarcerated until Easter all over again. So ministers may as well dig in their heels and resist now, rather than later.
Remember, there is an NHS Winter Crisis every single year. If restrictions become seen as a routine tool with which to mitigate it then there will end up being restrictions every single year as well, forever. This has to be stopped. I've no doubt that the pressures on the healthcare system are real and very serious, but ultimately this is a country that contains an NHS and not an NHS with an afterthought of a country bolted on the side.
If we try to put society into some form of hibernation where we isolate from one another and try to communicate through screens for half of every year, then the economy will collapse and we shall all go stir crazy. Enough.
The so-called "cum-ex" affair involved US pension funds, German banks, London-based investment bankers, international lawyers and many others.
It focused on huge share trades which were carried out with the sole purpose of generating multiple refunds of a tax that had only been paid once.
...
"Germany was obviously a key target. But the mind and the driving force was clearly in London. It was a London-orchestrated fraud, managed by US funds."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58984814
All Gordon Brown's fault, I'll be bound.
Winter draws on. Or something like that!.
However managed to get out and about again for an hour yesterday. No-one wearing masks; it would appear that the only places doing so locally are the pharmacy and the surgery.
The BBC's inspiring tale of a lady lorry driver mentions again the disappearance and consequent lack of service stations, something it should perhaps consider fixing in order to improve driver retention. Clearly it cannot be left to the private sector, or at least not without incentives or allowances.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-58967292
SIR Keir Starmer has accused Nicola Sturgeon of mishandling the Covid pandemic as badly as Boris Johnson, and said her record across government is “appalling”.
The UK Labour leader lambasted the First Minister’s response to the pandemic, saying her communication may have been better than the Prime Minister, but not her actions.
Sir Keir also accused Mr Sturgeon of using the constitutional debate to distract and disguise her failures in power on education and inequality as well as on the health service.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19660493.sir-keir-starmer-appalling-nicola-sturgeon-mishandled-covid-pandemic-badly-boris-johnson/
https://twitter.com/Fraser_ONS_PSF/status/1451065880268443651?s=20
Nearly 1,500 people have been arrested in England and Wales in a week-long operation against so-called county lines drug dealing networks.
Police say they have started focusing on senior figures controlling phone numbers used to sell drugs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58989795
https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios
BBC reported the second highest figure, not how much it is down.
This looks like an "it is almost certainly true that (assumption)" argument day, so I may be somewhat absent
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi singles out the U.K.’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic as a great example of what not to do
https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1450937645874487298?s=20
1) The NHS is also under severe pressure due to long term policy mistakes and underfunding. That’s nothing to do with Covid, what Covid has done rather (as with the DfE) is expose its shortcomings in a way that can’t be ignored. That’s not in any way to disparage the formidable pressure @Foxy and his colleagues are under. Nor is it to say their stance on ‘do anything to relieve this’ is not totally understandable. Been there, done that. But equally, that’s not going to be solved by random lockdowns.
2) However, balances need to be hit. There’s little point in saving the NHS if you collapse the hospitality sector and education system in consequence. Masks, in particular, may stop the spread of Covid (although the evidence is mixed) but used in classrooms make good education utterly impossible. And it’s in classrooms that this is spreading. Wearing or not wearing masks in Tesco will make very little difference by comparison.
3) Finally, if we’re not free of it now when the overwhelming majority of the population has been vaccinated bar certifiable lunatics, conspiracy theorists and drunks, we never will be, so we have to learn to live with it. Reimposing random restrictions on a knee-jerk basis isn’t going to improve matters. Arguably, it will make them worse by concentrating waves of infectious diseases in clusters.
Lockdowns and restrictions were the right thing to do at the start, including at the start of the year. That time has now passed.
https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1451075432154025985?s=20
ETA deleted paragraph written after I misread legalisation as legislation. These new eye drops are blurring my vision, contrary to the assurances of the optician.
FWIW my forecast is that we are at or at least very near the current peak, that we will see the average number of cases start to edge down within 10 days and while there may well be another wave in November ( just in time for some more Christmas hysteria) that we will never get anywhere near 100k cases a day.
Also, don't expect action on waiting lists at the same time as managing a 4th wave.
There's a reason that Labour MPs didn't bother wearing them in their even more packed Party Conference.
There is absolutely no reason to start donning masks again.
The attitude should be that Covid is an issue for the past. Vaccines saw to that. Get your jab, if required get a booster, and live your life normally.
I have no interest in any precautions other than vaccines. Washing your hands etc is just basic decency and not especially Covid related.
SINGAPORE - The surge in Covid-19 cases has placed significant pressure and strain on public hospitals here, with 89 per cent of the 1,650 isolation beds and 67 per cent of intensive care unit (ICU) beds occupied.
There are currently about 200 ICU beds for Covid-19 patients. Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said on Wednesday (Oct 20) that 71 are occupied by intubated patients - those who are hooked up to a ventilator to help them breathe.
He added that Covid-19 patients stay an average 15 days in the ICU, but the longest stay can be up to a month.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/singapore-hospitals-under-significant-pressure-two-thirds-of-covid-19-icu-beds
As ever its either "getting ahead of the curve" or "over-reaction"......
I see that August has been revised down by around £4bn.
The ONS were miles out. As many of us said they would be at the time.
And yet still all we hear from the Treasury is talk of tax rises. The Chancellor should take that £43.4 bn and cancel the NI hike.
All masks and WFH do is kick the can down the road further into winter and the inevitable NHS crisis.
100+ people are dying from/with Covid each day. Thousands are being infected. Hospitals are under pressure, and existing patients are facing far longer waits than usual.
Reaching Agreement in Principle with New Zealand will bring our two like-minded countries closer & bring benefits to UK businesses and workers.
Here are the top 10 benefits
https://twitter.com/annietrev/status/1451074846738239488?s=20
The reason people are facing longer waits is because things were postponed and distancing was implemented etc reducing capacity. Time to end all that nonsense.
Covid is not going away anytime soon. We have to learn to live with it. As we do with any other respiratory condition and, yes, people are going to die from/with it every year as people do at the moment from any manner of conditions.
So if you want to employ people expect it to cost more which makes automation easier.
Since then the borrowing has come in consistently below the forecasts, and yet taxes keep going up and being threatened.
It does not compute.
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/covid-season-3-avid-for-jab-id-what-would-tony-do/
I'm not in favour of increased restrictions at the moment. I can easily see that they may be needed in a month or two, though, and I see talk like yours above as being rather cavalier.
I don't care about forecasts, I care about reality. And the reality is that we're still only back to where we were in 2009. There's a long way to go and the reductions get harder the further we go...
What matters isn't that death comes to us all eventually, but what we do with our lives. Ceasing to live our lives because of a paralysing fear of death isn't healthy and is a great waste of life.
Incarcerating people in their homes so they don't see any loved ones and wither away and die of natural causes isn't "better".
The same is true to some extent in the NHS - albeit there genuinely are trade offs (which have to be made every winter) between number of beds available for acute patients, and those available for those undergoing elective surgery. But the NHS is always operating at very high capacity - with I guess the main variable in ICU being between beds actually occupied and those in reserve in particular for potential emergencies arising from surgery. But there are also things like guidelines on nurses per bed/patient, which in extremis can be waived - albeit with the trade off in decline in quality of care and staff morale.
Our two countries share deep ties of history, culture and values, and I look forward to the next chapter in our friendship.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1451071960985874438?s=20
I don't think a lockdown is likely, but beggars belief that we are not taking the quick wins of masks on public transport, funding for better ventilation in schools, encouraging people to wfh if possible etc.
Vaccines are the best way to achieve it. For anyone too stupid to get a vaccine they'll need to get it the natural way instead.
https://whatscotlandthinks.org/2021/10/questions-of-values-and-identity/
"Up to ten thousand a week die on average anyway."
Well, that's fine then. How many extra people are you willing to die just so you can feel the fresh air on your bumfluff-ridden face? Why not twenty thousand? Thirty thousand? All for your 'freedom' ...
Britain is reporting 3x more cases than France, Germany, Italy and Spain combined.
And Britain's booster rollout is stuttering ahead of the winter.
Here’s my full story on the situation in the UK: https://cnn.com/2021/10/20/uk/uk-europe-covid-infections-cmd-gbr-intl/index.html
With thanks to @dgurdasani1 @martinmckee
https://twitter.com/robpicheta/status/1450740484016680966?s=20
F1: trying to decide if 15 each way on Bottas is worth it. Hmm.
Remembering that the concept of “Covid herd immunity” came to be discredited because of the models of the massive numbers of deaths it would cause, not the concept itself. However much critics like to utilise any herd immunity approach as evil simply by deploying the phrase regardless of what the policy actually involves or its consequences.
Glad I don’t live in a country like Singapore.
The reality is, away from healthcare, life is good. Everyone tells me London is roaring again. I'm teaching 170 first year students in person, research in my lab is happening. The shops are all open, as are the nightclubs.
Look from outside the UK and of course you will see the negatives, because that is what is in the media.
Yes, those of us who have lived abroad have seen a variety of systems, but the distinctly British lack of being a number on a database is always appealing.
Week ending: 5-year average, deaths, excess
09-Jan-15: 12,277, 16,237, 3,960
16-Jan-15: 11,145, 14,866, 3,721
23-Jan-15: 10,714, 13,934, 3,220
30-Jan-15: 10,492, 12,900, 2,408
09-Mar-18: 10,935, 12,997, 2,062
16-Mar-18: 10,774, 12,788, 2,014
So far, excluding bank holidays, I think the worst we've had is:
Week ending: 5-year average, deaths, excess
17-Sep-21: 9,306, 11,009, 1,703
Of course, those 1,703 excess deaths aren't just COVID. We have to accept that we owe the reaper c.45,000 deaths from last winter.
Post vaccines? As many as it takes.
Gordon Brown started the rot, when he described tax credits as “investment”, knowing damn well that he was talking about current spending - which over the economic cycle (which he claimed to have abololished, remember?) should roughly match tax receipts.
I am not in favour of a return to harder restrictions at the moment. It seems a fine-edged thing, though, and the last 18 months have shown us that if you're not careful, when restrictions are required, they're required suddenly.
Hopefully enough kids are getting Covid that we'll be at herd immunity soon, and then figures will plummet. However, herd immunity's been called out many times before during this crisis, and we're not there yet. This s***** little B****er of a virus is a survivor, and may yet surprise us. Again.
And that's where PT is being complacent. He is unwilling to see people do even the smallest measures to protect themselves and others, because for some reason it is offensive to him. He callously disregards unnecessary deaths - possibly because it's not his own death. His argument could be used if we have 100 extra deaths a day, or a thousand. Or ten thousand.
Yes you can argue they should be, but you shouldn't blame people for not taking basic precautions. Not everyone is scared of covid. If you are jabbed and under 60 you will most likely get a bad cold at worst.
This thread is another in the split in how people are seeing the pandemic.
Based on previous response to restrictions I suspect this will be widely observed.
That's the only metric that matters post vaccinations.
I'm all right, Jack...
Kramp-Karrenbauer is doubling down on her dismissal of the idea of European strategic autonomy, which sparked a diplomatic blow-up with French President Emmanuel Macron, and which she sees as farther off than ever.
While some European leaders have declared the chaotic U.S.-led withdrawal from Afghanistan shows Europe must be able to operate more on its own militarily, Kramp-Karrenbauer has drawn the opposite conclusion: She argues the debacle demonstrates that Europe and the U.S. need to cooperate more closely to be more effective militarily.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-defense-minister-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-eu-nato/
However:
1) 'The majority'. Many are not.
2) Many of these people are living fulfilling lives, enjoying themselves. Their families enjoy their times with them. The idea they are somehow all 'ready' for death is far from correct. They do not need to die.
The one person I know who has died of Covid was in his eighties. He had a couple of underlying issues, but they were managed and he was very active with friends and family. He was out and about every day, driving to various clubs and events. The people dying are not all in care homes.
And we will all (hopefully) be old one day.