"I'm deeply surprised there hasn't been a bank run (outside Cyprus) in the last week"
How do you know there isn't?
People with over 100,000 Euros in their accounts are more likely to transfer it electronically or perhaps by cheque to somewhere safer.
Its not as if you can turn up at your local branch with a few supermarket bags and ask for that much in cash - they wouldn't have it in cash for one thing.
Peter the Punter; it's quite surprising how loyal to the tribe Tories are. If they weren't, Rochdale would be a LD seat now. That's the big strength of UKIP; it provides a "respectable" alternative for dissident Tories.
"it's quite surprising how loyal to the tribe Tories are. If they weren't, Rochdale would be a LD seat now"
You do realise that if Tories were as 'loyal to the tribe' as you think Rochdale would never have been a LD seat in the first place?
That some LD MPs failed to keep their tactical votes from political rightwingers had much to do with their uselessness as MPs or with them being more left wing than their Labour opponents - see Chesterfield for an example here.
I was a teller for the Salads in his by-election - and was invited to lunch by a tory teller after we finished our stint. It was the Salads who were the vote splitters, as they fielded an unknown Harrogate schoolteacher while Potter was a well-liked local farmer and, I think, councillor.
No doubt Hague would have won the seat back just the same in 1992 if the tories had been sensible enough to let him try again but he would have lost the 3 year start he got on his contemporaries by getting in in 1989.
It was July 1992. Amato was PM. He decided to take 6x1000 out of all Italian bank accounts. They published on July 11th a decree authorizing it retro-actively (using the bank accounts as of July 9th). So basically not allowing people to move money before the taxt came into effect.
The Russians won't take it lying down and will exact revenge on Germany.
The problems Russia and Russians face in Cyprus are mild compared to those they endured during their own financial crisis in 1997-8.
On 13 August 1998, the Russian stock, bond, and currency markets collapsed as a result of fears from investors that the government would devalue the ruble, default on domestic debt, or both. Annual yields on the ruble denominated bonds were more than 200 percent. The stock market had to be closed for 35 minutes as prices plummeted. When this happened, it was down 65 percent with a small number of shares actually traded. From January to August 1998 the stock market had lost more than 75 percent of its value, 39 percent in the month of May alone.
Depositors in Russian Banks lost up to 50% of their savings during the crisis.
It is not the extent of the haircut imposed on Russian depositors in Cypriot Banks which will worry Russia but the potential breach of confidentiality that might arise out of restructuring the Cypriot banking system.
Expect the Russian government to play a very active role in the merging of Cyprus's leading banks and the splitting out of "bad" from "good".
Remember Russia makes its money by digging metals, minerals and fuels out of a sixth of the world's land surface. Almost all of Russia's extraction industries are now controlled by the Russian government. In January 2013 Russia's foreign currency trade surplus for the month was $17bn, an amount exceeding the entire cost of the current Cyprus bailout.
The money lost is not the issue. The continuance of Cyprus as a gateway both to inbound and outbound Russian investment is vital as is protecting the identity of its players.
Germany may get insulted but there will be no "revenge". The Russian response will simply be to carry on digging and trading.
Another Richard; that's not how I recall Rochdale from when I lived there in the 60's, or from the people I know who live there now. However, to be fair, there's the contrary example of Bolton and Huddersfield in the 50's and 60's, although in those days the Labour Party was likely to put up someone significantly more "Socialist".
Carola - If Ed Miliband does become PM, in 2015 the three western powers on the Security Council would be led by Obama, Hollande and Miliband, hardly a trio to strike fear in any rogue states or terrorist organisations, but would confirm a global shift from a solely austerity driven economic policy!
LDs started in second place in Hampstead. However, the Tories were not far behind them on 2005 notionals. So they passed the LDs in 2010 arriving 42 votes short of Glenda.
Scoop - If Waterstones were sensible they would have timed entry so that after 15 minutes you have to pay £1 for every half hour you want to browse without making a purchase!
Twitter George Osborne @George_Osborne 53m No rabbits in the red box this week - but there was a cat... And also a big boost for #aspirationnation pic.twitter.com/XoT461zVG2
Oliver Cooper @OliverCooper 5m He's been on Twitter for just a few days, but @George_Osborne is already tweeting cat pictures like a Twitter pro.
Can't see The Conservatives losing Upminster & Hornchurch, the sitting MP is v rightbwing and won by 30% last time...their best chance is that she would join UKIP
@OldKingCole A major reason why the electorally system appears to be biased against the Tories is that there is almost no evidence of tactical voting. The result is that useless votes are piled up usually to Labour's benefit.
LAB and LD supporters, meanwhile, are much more likely to vote to keep the blues out rather than their main allegiance.
But you shouldn't be surprised that natural Conservatives are disinclined to vote tactically for politicians who act in such a manner.
Some LibDems have the common sense to realise if they want tactical votes from the right they have to give something back.
While others seem to think they have a right to every non-Labour vote even though they repeatedly announce their left wing views and hostility to the Conservative party.
And guess what - they then lose the tactical votes and complain about it.
but permanent damage has been done to a small eurozone nation for the good of the greater euro
This conclusion is perfectly worthy and understandable but it doesn't really fit in the case of Russia and Cyprus.
As a former owner of a Cypriot company set up solely to trade with Russia and to manage tax and cash flows arising out of such trade, I can assure you that Cyprus was not regarded as a 'safe haven' for long term deposits. It acted a gateway for inflow and outflows of investment. Almost all my Russian banking counterparts would also have Cypriot holdings so that it was perfectly possible and legal to trade services provided in Russia purely through Cypriot transactions.
Russian 'margins' on trade and the earnings capacity of Russian business are virtually limitless. To tap into this opportunity you need the infrastructure in place to move money around legally and easily. Cyprus has provided this infrastructure and will continue to do so, albeit at a reduced level (which was always going to be the case anyway regardless of the current crisis).
Russia will survive. Only a few bankers will be shot.
When I was working for a firm with extensive interests in the Middle East, we used to use Cyprus as the most convenient local tax haven. (Previously it was Lebanon, but the civil war put paid to that.)
I recall that a growing problem at the time was the influx of 'dirty' Russian money, which Iax local controls did nothing to discourage. When I heard of the EU proposals, I immediately assumed that it was aimed as much at clearing the Russian money out as sorting the local debt problems.
Of course I could be entirely wrong. (It wouldn't be the first time this evening.)
Old King Cole is a merry old soul and a thoroughly decent chap.
We can allow him to be tribally anti-Tory without it compromising his adoption as an honorary Tory.
I would even go so far as to suggest that OKC is less of a threat to true Tories than many within the official ranks of the Conservative Party.
My focus is particularly on the Normanby Hall Golf Club faction of the Northern Region of the Party. The Chancellor of the Exchequer regards this group as particularly dangerous and is currently lobbying the Camerons for the group's total exclusion from ancestral shelter.
hardly a trio to strike fear in any rogue states or terrorist organisations
Obama has killed more terrorist leaders in his first term than Bush killed in eight years. Here are the most high-profile ones that have been struck not just by fear, but by lethal force:
On the subject of potentially tactical votes, anecdotal: I voted CON in Sheffield Central Considered voting Lib Dem, but was glad I didn't. This time around my ward is NE Derbyshire so I'll vote CON and LAB will win it ;p
Socrates - True and I did say trio, but while he has done well getting Bin Laden etc he had to be pushed to intervene in Libya and has done very little on Syria (although that may be just as well considering the radical elements in the rebels)
I have just started Season 2 of Breaking Bad. Season 1 was great, but the show has now gone to another level. Although I note the reviews on Metacritic get better every season, with average scores of 74%, 85%, 89%, 96% and 99%(!).
Mike Smithson - Yes, but Blair was on the right of his party, Obama, Hollande and Miliband are very much of the liberal left in their respective nations
Good luck when your lights go out on 20th September 2014.
You'd better warn your friends in Notting Hill not to be at home when the more excitable residents from the nearby tower blocks come to visit that night.
Don't worry. The more rural and picturesque parts of Derbyshire and Staffordshire will be saved in a deal which swaps them with the urban parts of Bedfordshire. Those who know a fetlock from a forelock will be protected.
There is however no opt-out for South Yorkshire.
The problem is Merseyside. Salmond wouldn't take it even for zero consideration. Maybe it could be transferred to Cyprus. Scousers need annual access to a free tanning saloon.
Socrates - In world terms yes, in US terms no, he is very much a liberal. He opposed the Iraq War, is sceptical of US settlements, he has pushed for more state funding of healthcare, wants to end the Bush tax cuts, supports gay marriage and is pro-choice etc. Remember Hillary was the candidate of centrist Democrats in 2008, Obama of liberal Democrats!
Charles and RN seem to have given up hope of victory in 2015, have you joined them?
Of course not, ar.
I am made of much sterner stuff.
Osborne will fly back into office on all the mumsnet votes which fomerly vented their frustration in shunning and avoiding the Notting Hill Tories in popular polls.
By 2015, the only question being asked will be what shade of blue the curtains should be in the new build villa.
"I wonder what the seat would be like now if the Lib Dems had gained the seat in 1989?"
The LibDems gained Ripon at a 1973 byelection and lost it in 1974. The LibDems gained Ryedale in a 1986 byelection and lost it in 1987. If the LibDems had gained Richmond in the 1989 byelection they would have lost it in 1992.
@hyufd Clinton and Obama had virtually identical political positions in 2008. I agree he's now on the left, because the US spectrum has moved so far right compared to the 1980s. But he brought in a healthcare system to the right of that previously suggested by Nixon and Clinton, he has deported more illegal immigrants than Bush, he has heavily supported executive power in the use of drones, he has decimated the top ranks of Al-Qaeda, and at one point he offered a deficit reduction plan which consisted of $8 of spending cuts for every dollar of new tax revenue. As for the other positions, opposition to the Iraq war, support for Roe vs Wade and support for gay marriage are majority positions in America. He also extended the vast majority of the Bush tax cuts.
Notting Hill is a rather fun area in which to live, ar. It takes multicultural diversity to genteel extremes.
I once had a briefcase containing six months of expense claims stolen from my car when visiting a friend.
A quick word with the dealer on the corner of the road with a payment of a hundred quid got it returned within half an hour taped up in black bin liner.
It embodies the Cameroon ideal of an aspirant, big society population living in harmony.
Comments
How do you know there isn't?
People with over 100,000 Euros in their accounts are more likely to transfer it electronically or perhaps by cheque to somewhere safer.
Its not as if you can turn up at your local branch with a few supermarket bags and ask for that much in cash - they wouldn't have it in cash for one thing.
That's the big strength of UKIP; it provides a "respectable" alternative for dissident Tories.
You do realise that if Tories were as 'loyal to the tribe' as you think Rochdale would never have been a LD seat in the first place?
That some LD MPs failed to keep their tactical votes from political rightwingers had much to do with their uselessness as MPs or with them being more left wing than their Labour opponents - see Chesterfield for an example here.
Likewise Hampstead.
Evidently the prospect of ejecting Glenda Jackson was not alluring enough to persuade local Tories to vote LD.
If they didn't do it last time, they never will.
Yes Bluewater is definitely more upmarket than Lakeside, as is Westfield, Lakeside needs a few quid spent on it I reckon
I didn't think of buses, just knew there wasn't a train. I'm not a fan of that bridge at all, vertigo central!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21913926
"Rebels in the Central African Republic (CAR) have entered the capital Bangui, according to witnesses.
Residents said hundreds of Seleka rebels were now fighting running battles with government troops."
No doubt Hague would have won the seat back just the same in 1992 if the tories had been sensible enough to let him try again but he would have lost the 3 year start he got on his contemporaries by getting in in 1989.
It was July 1992. Amato was PM. He decided to take 6x1000 out of all Italian bank accounts. They published on July 11th a decree authorizing it retro-actively (using the bank accounts as of July 9th). So basically not allowing people to move money before the taxt came into effect.
They were evil genius
The Russians won't take it lying down and will exact revenge on Germany.
The problems Russia and Russians face in Cyprus are mild compared to those they endured during their own financial crisis in 1997-8.
On 13 August 1998, the Russian stock, bond, and currency markets collapsed as a result of fears from investors that the government would devalue the ruble, default on domestic debt, or both. Annual yields on the ruble denominated bonds were more than 200 percent. The stock market had to be closed for 35 minutes as prices plummeted. When this happened, it was down 65 percent with a small number of shares actually traded. From January to August 1998 the stock market had lost more than 75 percent of its value, 39 percent in the month of May alone.
Depositors in Russian Banks lost up to 50% of their savings during the crisis.
It is not the extent of the haircut imposed on Russian depositors in Cypriot Banks which will worry Russia but the potential breach of confidentiality that might arise out of restructuring the Cypriot banking system.
Expect the Russian government to play a very active role in the merging of Cyprus's leading banks and the splitting out of "bad" from "good".
Remember Russia makes its money by digging metals, minerals and fuels out of a sixth of the world's land surface. Almost all of Russia's extraction industries are now controlled by the Russian government. In January 2013 Russia's foreign currency trade surplus for the month was $17bn, an amount exceeding the entire cost of the current Cyprus bailout.
The money lost is not the issue. The continuance of Cyprus as a gateway both to inbound and outbound Russian investment is vital as is protecting the identity of its players.
Germany may get insulted but there will be no "revenge". The Russian response will simply be to carry on digging and trading.
Yes I saw a big poster advertising the DartTag near the southbound tolls.
Sam,
There are two London buses that go direct to Bluewater the 96 and 482 which go via Woolwich and Dartford. Haven't tried that route yet though.
1. Lab,
2. Con,
3. LD.
Con only lost by 42 votes. If any Con supporters voted LD tactically they shouldn't have done!!!
Hardly anyone has a bookshop anymore, such is the power of Amazon
That'll teach me to rely on my ailing memory, Mike!
Personally, I'm tribally anti-Tory!
Well spotted on thresholds for benefits.
Fiscal drag in reverse?
There's TWO Waterstones in Meadowhall.
We have two in Leicester also, but all the independent bookshops have ceased trading.
Many towns have no bookshops now.
I am not sure how long Waterstones will continue, but I shall enjoy it while I can.
Our local Waterstones was quite busy today, however I have heard that the majority are browsing and then ordering mainly 2nd hand books on Amazon.
LDs started in second place in Hampstead. However, the Tories were not far behind them on 2005 notionals. So they passed the LDs in 2010 arriving 42 votes short of Glenda.
Twitter
George Osborne @George_Osborne 53m
No rabbits in the red box this week - but there was a cat... And also a big boost for #aspirationnation pic.twitter.com/XoT461zVG2
Oliver Cooper @OliverCooper 5m
He's been on Twitter for just a few days, but @George_Osborne is already tweeting cat pictures like a Twitter pro.
and Gerry Adams has been tweeting Teddy Bears all week
Have they all gone mad?
I agree, and if you looked carefully there were some good paperback deals buy 1 get 1 half price.
Noted with thanks, Andrea.
LAB and LD supporters, meanwhile, are much more likely to vote to keep the blues out rather than their main allegiance.
That you're 'tribally anti-Tory' is your choice.
But you shouldn't be surprised that natural Conservatives are disinclined to vote tactically for politicians who act in such a manner.
Some LibDems have the common sense to realise if they want tactical votes from the right they have to give something back.
While others seem to think they have a right to every non-Labour vote even though they repeatedly announce their left wing views and hostility to the Conservative party.
And guess what - they then lose the tactical votes and complain about it.
but permanent damage has been done to a small eurozone nation for the good of the greater euro
This conclusion is perfectly worthy and understandable but it doesn't really fit in the case of Russia and Cyprus.
As a former owner of a Cypriot company set up solely to trade with Russia and to manage tax and cash flows arising out of such trade, I can assure you that Cyprus was not regarded as a 'safe haven' for long term deposits. It acted a gateway for inflow and outflows of investment. Almost all my Russian banking counterparts would also have Cypriot holdings so that it was perfectly possible and legal to trade services provided in Russia purely through Cypriot transactions.
Russian 'margins' on trade and the earnings capacity of Russian business are virtually limitless. To tap into this opportunity you need the infrastructure in place to move money around legally and easily. Cyprus has provided this infrastructure and will continue to do so, albeit at a reduced level (which was always going to be the case anyway regardless of the current crisis).
Russia will survive. Only a few bankers will be shot.
When I was working for a firm with extensive interests in the Middle East, we used to use Cyprus as the most convenient local tax haven. (Previously it was Lebanon, but the civil war put paid to that.)
I recall that a growing problem at the time was the influx of 'dirty' Russian money, which Iax local controls did nothing to discourage. When I heard of the EU proposals, I immediately assumed that it was aimed as much at clearing the Russian money out as sorting the local debt problems.
Of course I could be entirely wrong. (It wouldn't be the first time this evening.)
Old King Cole is a merry old soul and a thoroughly decent chap.
We can allow him to be tribally anti-Tory without it compromising his adoption as an honorary Tory.
I would even go so far as to suggest that OKC is less of a threat to true Tories than many within the official ranks of the Conservative Party.
My focus is particularly on the Normanby Hall Golf Club faction of the Northern Region of the Party. The Chancellor of the Exchequer regards this group as particularly dangerous and is currently lobbying the Camerons for the group's total exclusion from ancestral shelter.
hardly a trio to strike fear in any rogue states or terrorist organisations
Obama has killed more terrorist leaders in his first term than Bush killed in eight years. Here are the most high-profile ones that have been struck not just by fear, but by lethal force:
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/the-terrorist-notches-on-obamas-belt/
I hope you're not suggesting I'm a Conservative?
But if you are you might like to consider how a future Conservative government is going to be elected without the votes of people such as myself?
I will take it as a compliment though that you regard me as a threat to your 'true Tories'.
Fine for me on the iphone.
But if you are you might like to consider how a future Conservative government is going to be elected without the votes of people such as myself?
The current plan is to sell the North of England to a newly independent Scotland on 19th September 2014.
Start preparing your supplications to James Kelly, ar. You have been warned.
I have just started Season 2 of Breaking Bad. Season 1 was great, but the show has now gone to another level. Although I note the reviews on Metacritic get better every season, with average scores of 74%, 85%, 89%, 96% and 99%(!).
http://voteview.com/images/House_party_Means_46-111.jpg
Good luck when your lights go out on 20th September 2014.
You'd better warn your friends in Notting Hill not to be at home when the more excitable residents from the nearby tower blocks come to visit that night.
Don't worry. The more rural and picturesque parts of Derbyshire and Staffordshire will be saved in a deal which swaps them with the urban parts of Bedfordshire. Those who know a fetlock from a forelock will be protected.
There is however no opt-out for South Yorkshire.
The problem is Merseyside. Salmond wouldn't take it even for zero consideration. Maybe it could be transferred to Cyprus. Scousers need annual access to a free tanning saloon.
I do detect a hint of despair from you in recent days.
Charles and RN seem to have given up hope of victory in 2015, have you joined them?
Might I suggest you just lay back and look forward to the government of the Eds - it will be so entertaining for those on the political right.
Charles and RN seem to have given up hope of victory in 2015, have you joined them?
Of course not, ar.
I am made of much sterner stuff.
Osborne will fly back into office on all the mumsnet votes which fomerly vented their frustration in shunning and avoiding the Notting Hill Tories in popular polls.
By 2015, the only question being asked will be what shade of blue the curtains should be in the new build villa.
For a while, the Lib Dems slipped to third in the seat, finishing behind Labour.
I wonder what the seat would be like now if the Lib Dems had gained the seat in 1989?
Once they get into a seat, they become difficult to dislodge.
I do like your swapping idea.
Perhaps some Conservative voting areas in north-east Scotland could be transferred to England, with the adjacent oil fields naturally.
In return Scotland could receive a Labour voting area in London for their embassy.
A Labour voting area such as Notting Hill.
Would you say its a little embarrassing that the Cameroons can only afford to live in a Labour voting area?
I couldn't give an opinion myself as I've never suffered that difficulty ;-)
The LibDems gained Ripon at a 1973 byelection and lost it in 1974.
The LibDems gained Ryedale in a 1986 byelection and lost it in 1987.
If the LibDems had gained Richmond in the 1989 byelection they would have lost it in 1992.
I think every by-election seat the Tories lost between 1987 and 1992 they regained at the General election, so you're probably right.
Any idea which seat the Lib Dems have held the longest?
If the cat's got a good lawyer you could be up for libel with that comment.
My innocence has been shattered.
Notting Hill is a rather fun area in which to live, ar. It takes multicultural diversity to genteel extremes.
I once had a briefcase containing six months of expense claims stolen from my car when visiting a friend.
A quick word with the dealer on the corner of the road with a payment of a hundred quid got it returned within half an hour taped up in black bin liner.
It embodies the Cameroon ideal of an aspirant, big society population living in harmony.
At a guess.
Continuously Orkney & Shetland.
As a proportion of the last century Montgomery.
'Once they get into a seat, they become difficult to dislodge.'
I fear you have the tense wrong in that sentence.
Roxburgh & Berwickshire 1965-
Berwick-upon-Tweed 1973-
Bermondsey 1983-
Why were you walking around with a briefcase full of six month's of expenses?
And did you claim the £100 on your expenses as well?
I hope the dealer on the corner provided you with a receipt.
But I'm afraid you haven't sold the 'aspiration' of Notting Hill to me, I'll have to make do with Richmond on my visits to London.