Best Of

As I predicted, mandatory WFH here we come.

If we're really lucky we might even get a de facto lockdown

Huge energy price rises pile pressure on British companies

Warning of businesses going under as cost of gas set to rise by as much as 80 per cent, while electricity bills to increase by up to 30 per cent

Businesses across the UK are facing “eye-watering” rises in their energy bills because of the conflict in the Middle East, analysis for The Times suggests.

Unlike households, companies are not insulated from volatility in gas and electricity prices, which have almost doubled since the Iran war began.

The problem is particularly acute for the thousands of companies that fix their annual price tariff at the start of the financial year in April and will face an immediate sharp rise in their bills.

Analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight found that as a result of the conflict, business users’ electricity bills would rise by up to 30 per cent, while the cost of gas could go up by as much as 80 per cent. This would mean that a business such as a larger retail and leisure site, on an average 12-month electricity contract, would have an annual bill of £578,000 — £95,000 more than early last month.

For gas, bills have risen by £376,000, reaching just over £1.02 million a year, an increase of nearly 60 per cent, based on the latest wholesale prices.

On Tuesday Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, warned that Europe risked fuel shortages as soon as next month. At an industry conference in Houston, Texas, he said the global oil and gas supply squeeze had already forced parts of Asia to cut energy consumption and that the “ripple effect” threatened to spread west within days.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/huge-energy-price-rises-pile-pressure-on-british-companies-6w9m0j0xk

Depressing. I’d much rather businesses were given some kind of some support - low interest government loans or similar - than handouts to people who can shoulder this. Loans that could bd used to install solar, heat pumps, batteries.

I include myself in this. We save for emergencies so can weather this out. We do huge mileage each year, but a lot of that is social, weekend driving that we can cut back on. We don’t need any help from the government.

OTOH , we don’t use much gas because we live in an energy-efficient flat, appropriate for two young-ish adults. I’m not sure why people like me should bail out those in big, detached houses. They’ve made their choice.

If only spongers on benefits are getting the help I doubt many will be in big detached houses , once again telling that you spew hatred on a handful of poor pensioners ( unlike the majority) who may have a decent house and no money.

Surely someone who has "a decent house and no money" actually has a lot of money but chooses to leave it tied up in an unproductive asset and live a poverty lifestyle

(((Dan Hodges))) reposted
Andrew Snowden MP 🇬🇧
@A_J_Snowden
·
4m
So, bets on PMQs this week?

Kemi: When did you find out Morgan McSweeneys phone had been stolen and what did you do to recover and secure the critical data on it?

Starmer: We’ve announced a new breakfast club in Barnsley.

https://x.com/A_J_Snowden/status/2036724988120629739

Doesn't it tell you all you need to know about todays Tory Party that when the world is in real peril their MPs are staying awake at night debating whether Kemi should lead PMQs on the theft of Morgan McSweeney's phone?

Irrespective of politics it should concern all of us that McSweeney's phone, with all the confidential information and government communications, was stolen and dismissed by the police with just a crime number

This phone could provide enormous potential for blackmail and should have been immediately referred to the National Crime Agency

In this particular moment in history we don't even know who our friends or enemies are. Who exactly should we worry about if they had access to all the secrets on McSweeneys phone?

I cannot believe you would ask such a weird question

Anyone from crime syndicates, to Russian, Chinese, Iranian intelligence, politicians facing blackmail, and even security issues

As I predicted, mandatory WFH here we come.

If we're really lucky we might even get a de facto lockdown

Huge energy price rises pile pressure on British companies

Warning of businesses going under as cost of gas set to rise by as much as 80 per cent, while electricity bills to increase by up to 30 per cent

Businesses across the UK are facing “eye-watering” rises in their energy bills because of the conflict in the Middle East, analysis for The Times suggests.

Unlike households, companies are not insulated from volatility in gas and electricity prices, which have almost doubled since the Iran war began.

The problem is particularly acute for the thousands of companies that fix their annual price tariff at the start of the financial year in April and will face an immediate sharp rise in their bills.

Analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight found that as a result of the conflict, business users’ electricity bills would rise by up to 30 per cent, while the cost of gas could go up by as much as 80 per cent. This would mean that a business such as a larger retail and leisure site, on an average 12-month electricity contract, would have an annual bill of £578,000 — £95,000 more than early last month.

For gas, bills have risen by £376,000, reaching just over £1.02 million a year, an increase of nearly 60 per cent, based on the latest wholesale prices.

On Tuesday Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, warned that Europe risked fuel shortages as soon as next month. At an industry conference in Houston, Texas, he said the global oil and gas supply squeeze had already forced parts of Asia to cut energy consumption and that the “ripple effect” threatened to spread west within days.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/huge-energy-price-rises-pile-pressure-on-british-companies-6w9m0j0xk

Depressing. I’d much rather businesses were given some kind of some support - low interest government loans or similar - than handouts to people who can shoulder this. Loans that could bd used to install solar, heat pumps, batteries.

I include myself in this. We save for emergencies so can weather this out. We do huge mileage each year, but a lot of that is social, weekend driving that we can cut back on. We don’t need any help from the government.

OTOH , we don’t use much gas because we live in an energy-efficient flat, appropriate for two young-ish adults. I’m not sure why people like me should bail out those in big, detached houses. They’ve made their choice.

We live in a big detached house and are unlikely to be affected beyond what we can afford

However, if those energy prices hit next week no amount of future investment in energy savings will prevent both huge price rises and many lost jobs

This is a very serious crisis that has nightmare implications for all governments

Everyone will be affected if there is no fuel. No transport, no deliveries, nothing in shops, and so on.

But the flip side is the Trump family have made a ton of money on Polymarket.

Is Polymarket essentially similar to the Betfair Exchange?

I *think* so, but I'm not sure

• In fixed-odds betting (sportsbook betting) in the high street (eg Ladbrokes), when you place a bet the person you are betting with is the bookmaker
  
• In exchange betting online (eg Betfair Exchange), when you place a bet the person you are betting with is another gambler: the exchange just holds the money (for a fee) until the bet is resolved
  
• In a prediction market (eg Polymarket), when you place a bet you are buying a "token". If that token cannot be matched with another gambler then your bet is returned unbetted. The prediction market holds the money until things are resolved.
  

If I'm wrong, somebody tell me.

As I predicted, mandatory WFH here we come.

If we're really lucky we might even get a de facto lockdown

Huge energy price rises pile pressure on British companies

Warning of businesses going under as cost of gas set to rise by as much as 80 per cent, while electricity bills to increase by up to 30 per cent

Businesses across the UK are facing “eye-watering” rises in their energy bills because of the conflict in the Middle East, analysis for The Times suggests.

Unlike households, companies are not insulated from volatility in gas and electricity prices, which have almost doubled since the Iran war began.

The problem is particularly acute for the thousands of companies that fix their annual price tariff at the start of the financial year in April and will face an immediate sharp rise in their bills.

Analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight found that as a result of the conflict, business users’ electricity bills would rise by up to 30 per cent, while the cost of gas could go up by as much as 80 per cent. This would mean that a business such as a larger retail and leisure site, on an average 12-month electricity contract, would have an annual bill of £578,000 — £95,000 more than early last month.

For gas, bills have risen by £376,000, reaching just over £1.02 million a year, an increase of nearly 60 per cent, based on the latest wholesale prices.

On Tuesday Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, warned that Europe risked fuel shortages as soon as next month. At an industry conference in Houston, Texas, he said the global oil and gas supply squeeze had already forced parts of Asia to cut energy consumption and that the “ripple effect” threatened to spread west within days.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/huge-energy-price-rises-pile-pressure-on-british-companies-6w9m0j0xk

Depressing. I’d much rather businesses were given some kind of some support - low interest government loans or similar - than handouts to people who can shoulder this. Loans that could bd used to install solar, heat pumps, batteries.

I include myself in this. We save for emergencies so can weather this out. We do huge mileage each year, but a lot of that is social, weekend driving that we can cut back on. We don’t need any help from the government.

OTOH , we don’t use much gas because we live in an energy-efficient flat, appropriate for two young-ish adults. I’m not sure why people like me should bail out those in big, detached houses. They’ve made their choice.

If only spongers on benefits are getting the help I doubt many will be in big detached houses , once again telling that you spew hatred on a handful of poor pensioners ( unlike the majority) who may have a decent house and no money.

30% of UK households (7mn) are in receipt of Universal Credit. Surprisingly the same spread throughout the UK (England 29% / Wales 30% / Scotland 31%). There are 9mn pensioner households.

So the workers not in receipt of UC are doing a lot of the heavy lifting for pensioners more than anyone else.

You’re obsessed with bloody pensioners receiving benefits but not working age people.

Pension is a contribution based benefit and those receiving it did the heavy lifting in the past.

Rightly or wrongly that’s the case.

Aside from a few benefits, such as contribution based JSA, you cannot say that about most who receive working age benefits and bloody labour, or some of them, want to hand more money to the Boriswave.

Personally I’d tie both pensions and benefits to GDP growth.

@malcolmg what is it with people here who are happy to dump on people who contributed to the benefits system getting something back but radiate their middle class, white, worthiness on those who largely haven’t ?

As I predicted, mandatory WFH here we come.

If we're really lucky we might even get a de facto lockdown

Huge energy price rises pile pressure on British companies

Warning of businesses going under as cost of gas set to rise by as much as 80 per cent, while electricity bills to increase by up to 30 per cent

Businesses across the UK are facing “eye-watering” rises in their energy bills because of the conflict in the Middle East, analysis for The Times suggests.

Unlike households, companies are not insulated from volatility in gas and electricity prices, which have almost doubled since the Iran war began.

The problem is particularly acute for the thousands of companies that fix their annual price tariff at the start of the financial year in April and will face an immediate sharp rise in their bills.

Analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight found that as a result of the conflict, business users’ electricity bills would rise by up to 30 per cent, while the cost of gas could go up by as much as 80 per cent. This would mean that a business such as a larger retail and leisure site, on an average 12-month electricity contract, would have an annual bill of £578,000 — £95,000 more than early last month.

For gas, bills have risen by £376,000, reaching just over £1.02 million a year, an increase of nearly 60 per cent, based on the latest wholesale prices.

On Tuesday Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, warned that Europe risked fuel shortages as soon as next month. At an industry conference in Houston, Texas, he said the global oil and gas supply squeeze had already forced parts of Asia to cut energy consumption and that the “ripple effect” threatened to spread west within days.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/huge-energy-price-rises-pile-pressure-on-british-companies-6w9m0j0xk

We seem to have got into the mindset that the government can protect businesses and people from all exogenous risks. That’s just not affordable.

The reality is that if a business can’t operate profitability at a given level of energy prices and that level is sustained then the business should shut down and the capital be redeployed

The reality is a lot of what we face and will face now with energy is as a result of inept govt policy.

I agree that govt bailing us all out is not the solution

But govt needs also to put in place policies that are pro business and help business, not fuck them over or leave business vulnerable to the whims of the Middle East.

And it’s not just renewables. We need oil and gas whether we like it or not.

With that I’m off to take an old friend, my bike, off for its final journey.

Um - North Sea oil wouldn't even at its peak provided enough energy for us.

So exactly what has the Government done wrong because we are shifting to renewables far faster than anyone thought we would.

First sentence. Never made that claim.

Shifting ‘far faster than anyone thought we could’ is just a vague, woolly statement.

Shifting to renewables is only part of it. But, you’re right, govt, is perfect and never put a foot wrong on energy.

Morning all

An intriguing evening in Denmark but with the cool of the morning, a few thoughts.

The Social Democrats, despite taking a beating, are the sole remaining large national party with 38 seats. The Folketing is fragmented as never before with no less than twelve parties winning seats. On the "red" or "left" side, you have the Social Democrats and the Socialistiske Folkeparti who did well but perhaps not as well as they had hoped winning 20 seats and becoming the second largest group in Parliament.

The other "Red" parties are much smaller but the block has 84 and a decisive advantage over the "blue" or "right" grouping of parties with 77. On the "Blue" side, Venstre, the traditional leading party, also lost ground but just held off the Liberal Alliance and the Dansk Folkeparti who were the big winners of the night at the expense of the Denmark Democrats. The three main "blue" block parties have 51 seats but are within themselves grappling for leadership.

It seems however the old coalition of Social Democrats, Venstre and the Moderates is gone - the Venstre leader has already said that period of co-operation has ended and he wants to lead a traditional "blue" Government but he has left the door open to the Radikale Venstre to join or support such a Government.

That invite has also been proffered by the Statsminister and Social Democrat leader, Mette Frederiksen but in essence none of this matters very much.

The Moderates lost a little ground but did well to be left holding the balance of power having won 14 seats. NO majority Government is possible without their support though the "Red" bloc could form a minority administration if the Moderates offered the equivalent of Confidence & Supply.

The party leaders have gathered for an initial meeting this morning and the process, as I recall, is they choose one to be the first to be invited by King Frederik IX to try to form a new Government at which point the horse trading (no actual horses) will begin. I suspect Frederiksen will get first go at this but it all depends on Lars Lokke Rasmussen, the Moderates leader, who, as the saying goes, holds all the cards.

Suella bringing the stupid.

Global warming?!?

Just over a week to go until Easter and we need to get our big coats back out!

I wouldn’t mind a bit more global warming to be honest, right now.
https://x.com/SuellaBraverman/status/2036507074868207712

To be fair to Suella, that's a joke, albeit with the subtlety expected of a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

I'd be interested to know whether this year's and last year's apparently warm wet winter is part of a trend, or maybe just normal variation. Our parkrun was cancelled due to flooding from Christmas to mid February and the first two weeks in March, which is worse than last year (we managed one run in both January and February but back to BAU in March) and much worse than the year before (about one cancellation a month).

As I predicted, mandatory WFH here we come.

If we're really lucky we might even get a de facto lockdown

Huge energy price rises pile pressure on British companies

Warning of businesses going under as cost of gas set to rise by as much as 80 per cent, while electricity bills to increase by up to 30 per cent

Businesses across the UK are facing “eye-watering” rises in their energy bills because of the conflict in the Middle East, analysis for The Times suggests.

Unlike households, companies are not insulated from volatility in gas and electricity prices, which have almost doubled since the Iran war began.

The problem is particularly acute for the thousands of companies that fix their annual price tariff at the start of the financial year in April and will face an immediate sharp rise in their bills.

Analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight found that as a result of the conflict, business users’ electricity bills would rise by up to 30 per cent, while the cost of gas could go up by as much as 80 per cent. This would mean that a business such as a larger retail and leisure site, on an average 12-month electricity contract, would have an annual bill of £578,000 — £95,000 more than early last month.

For gas, bills have risen by £376,000, reaching just over £1.02 million a year, an increase of nearly 60 per cent, based on the latest wholesale prices.

On Tuesday Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, warned that Europe risked fuel shortages as soon as next month. At an industry conference in Houston, Texas, he said the global oil and gas supply squeeze had already forced parts of Asia to cut energy consumption and that the “ripple effect” threatened to spread west within days.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/huge-energy-price-rises-pile-pressure-on-british-companies-6w9m0j0xk

Depressing. I’d much rather businesses were given some kind of some support - low interest government loans or similar - than handouts to people who can shoulder this. Loans that could bd used to install solar, heat pumps, batteries.

I include myself in this. We save for emergencies so can weather this out. We do huge mileage each year, but a lot of that is social, weekend driving that we can cut back on. We don’t need any help from the government.

OTOH , we don’t use much gas because we live in an energy-efficient flat, appropriate for two young-ish adults. I’m not sure why people like me should bail out those in big, detached houses. They’ve made their choice.

If only spongers on benefits are getting the help I doubt many will be in big detached houses , once again telling that you spew hatred on a handful of poor pensioners ( unlike the majority) who may have a decent house and no money.

30% of UK households (7mn) are in receipt of Universal Credit. Surprisingly the same spread throughout the UK (England 29% / Wales 30% / Scotland 31%). There are 9mn pensioner households.

So the workers not in receipt of UC are doing a lot of the heavy lifting for pensioners more than anyone else.

You’re obsessed with bloody pensioners receiving benefits but not working age people.

Pension is a contribution based benefit and those receiving it did the heavy lifting in the past.

Rightly or wrongly that’s the case.

Aside from a few benefits, such as contribution based JSA, you cannot say that about most who receive working age benefits and bloody labour, or some of them, want to hand more money to the Boriswave.

Personally I’d tie both pensions and benefits to GDP growth.

@malcolmg what is it with people here who are happy to dump on people who contributed to the benefits system getting something back but radiate their middle class, white, worthiness on those who largely haven’t ?

To answer your question about pensioners, the amount contributed on an actuarial basis doesn't represent the amounts they are taking out. ON one hand you could argue that you paid what was asked. On the other, you can argue that pensioners encouraged governments that would undercharge them and sell of the nations assets to give the illusion of fiscal prudence.

In other words the real costs of pensions was kicked into the future and the future is now.

As I predicted, mandatory WFH here we come.

If we're really lucky we might even get a de facto lockdown

Huge energy price rises pile pressure on British companies

Warning of businesses going under as cost of gas set to rise by as much as 80 per cent, while electricity bills to increase by up to 30 per cent

Businesses across the UK are facing “eye-watering” rises in their energy bills because of the conflict in the Middle East, analysis for The Times suggests.

Unlike households, companies are not insulated from volatility in gas and electricity prices, which have almost doubled since the Iran war began.

The problem is particularly acute for the thousands of companies that fix their annual price tariff at the start of the financial year in April and will face an immediate sharp rise in their bills.

Analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight found that as a result of the conflict, business users’ electricity bills would rise by up to 30 per cent, while the cost of gas could go up by as much as 80 per cent. This would mean that a business such as a larger retail and leisure site, on an average 12-month electricity contract, would have an annual bill of £578,000 — £95,000 more than early last month.

For gas, bills have risen by £376,000, reaching just over £1.02 million a year, an increase of nearly 60 per cent, based on the latest wholesale prices.

On Tuesday Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, warned that Europe risked fuel shortages as soon as next month. At an industry conference in Houston, Texas, he said the global oil and gas supply squeeze had already forced parts of Asia to cut energy consumption and that the “ripple effect” threatened to spread west within days.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/huge-energy-price-rises-pile-pressure-on-british-companies-6w9m0j0xk

Depressing. I’d much rather businesses were given some kind of some support - low interest government loans or similar - than handouts to people who can shoulder this. Loans that could bd used to install solar, heat pumps, batteries.

I include myself in this. We save for emergencies so can weather this out. We do huge mileage each year, but a lot of that is social, weekend driving that we can cut back on. We don’t need any help from the government.

OTOH , we don’t use much gas because we live in an energy-efficient flat, appropriate for two young-ish adults. I’m not sure why people like me should bail out those in big, detached houses. They’ve made their choice.

If only spongers on benefits are getting the help I doubt many will be in big detached houses , once again telling that you spew hatred on a handful of poor pensioners ( unlike the majority) who may have a decent house and no money.

30% of UK households (7mn) are in receipt of Universal Credit. Surprisingly the same spread throughout the UK (England 29% / Wales 30% / Scotland 31%). There are 9mn pensioner households.

So the workers not in receipt of UC are doing a lot of the heavy lifting for pensioners more than anyone else.

You’re obsessed with bloody pensioners receiving benefits but not working age people.

Pension is a contribution based benefit and those receiving it did the heavy lifting in the past.

Rightly or wrongly that’s the case.

Aside from a few benefits, such as contribution based JSA, you cannot say that about most who receive working age benefits and bloody labour, or some of them, want to hand more money to the Boriswave.

Personally I’d tie both pensions and benefits to GDP growth.

@malcolmg what is it with people here who are happy to dump on people who contributed to the benefits system getting something back but radiate their middle class, white, worthiness on those who largely haven’t ?

Hopefully no-one wants to see state support removed for old people but what grates is the huge sense of entitlement of the current generation of pensioners. Who are much better catered for than generations past, and also those to come. Who sound off about how they deserve the lion share of state welfare "because they worked for it", all the while denying any support to people who are actually working, and supposedly feckless and morally inferior.

Sadly all parties indulge this sense of entitlement, hoping these guys will vote for them.