Best Of
Re: Rachel Reeves & Sir Sadiq Khan speak for the nation – politicalbetting.com
Ive managed it before breakfast.Great, that'll give you time to cry like a little bitch about him crying like a little bitch before tea.I'm sure Farage will be crying like a little bitch over the figures by lunchtimeMorning all.Have they released the actual figures too, or do we just mentally add 5 to Reform?
YouGov brings a tightening
Ref 23 (-2)
Lab 19 (+2)
Grn 18 (-1)
Con 17 (=)
LD 13 (-1)
We are not far off an effective 4 way tie with YouGov
Re: The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
Truer than (perhaps) you thinkBook banning in Manchester: https://www.indexoncensorship.org/2026/03/school-book-banning-escalates-in-the-uk-as-greater-manchester-secondary-school-censors-scores-of-books/That story is insane.
Sounds like something out of Trump's America.
In the story, “AI” was used to create the list of books to ban.
Probably ChatGPT.
“AI” is actually just a really fancy way of guessing an output, based on the input. The guess is based on a vast amount of examples, which are used to create the model.
The vast majority of reports of “problematic books” and sites about problematic books, in English, are from Christian Right types on the US.
The training data for most AIs consists of scraping the internet.
So if you give a list of books to an “AI”, it will list as “problematic” those that offended MAGA type Americans.
A very good clue is that the list of banned stuff included Terry Pratchett and various Goth Vampire juvenile books - both are disliked, by such people, for writing about magic and monsters as if they aren’t super evil.
Re: The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
There’s a few like that here (not you I hasten to add), just avoid !!He is never wrong you know !!!!!You're in the party am I'm not. But I would have thought the pressure on her was past:Yes, if the Tories are 4th in May Kemi will certainly face a VONC in my view, so I will take a bet on those terms, the Tories coming third or worse in May will have a VONC. If the Tories are second or better she won't so the bet is then voidA £50 charity bet that Kemi either does not face a VONC by 1st September - or if she does, she survives it.Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.
Ref 23 (-2)
Lab 19 (+2)
GRN 18 (-1)
Con 17 (=)
LD 13 (-1)
I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.
Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.
If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do
Interested?
Tories have cleared out the mad, insane and stupid to Reform. You are a Better Party without those morons.
Reform are on the slide. Plot the trendline, look at the hurdles they face.
Kemi has found her rhythm - previous government a bit crap, I'm new, I'm punchy, life vs Starmer's inertia
And you want to replace her with Shithole Cleverley?
Taz
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Re: The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
The Greens will likely be running far fewer candidates in May and therefore will be well down on NEV compared to a GE situation.Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.
Ref 23 (-2)
Lab 19 (+2)
GRN 18 (-1)
Con 17 (=)
LD 13 (-1)
I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.
Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.
If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do
Re: The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
Yes the Polanski Greens are basically Corbyn lite attracting the same type of voters, mainly under 40 burdened by student debt and not owning a house and feeling capitalism does not work for them and willing to give tax and spend socialism a go. They are no longer the party of posh middle class environmentalists like Jonathan Porritt.Isn't the reason that Green voters don't feel like capitalism is working for them that, in many cases, it isn't particularly? Not exclusively because it's so hard to escape the rental trap, but that being a very large factor. And that, in turn being linked to a change in small-c-conservatism from "pass a better life on to the next generation/enough evolution to prevent revolution" to "après moi le déluge".
Green voters do though have some similarity with Reform voters though in that they are less likely to be financially comfortable than average
And that's just another form of nihlism- that of the powerful, rather than the powerless.
Re: The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
You're in the party am I'm not. But I would have thought the pressure on her was past:Yes, if the Tories are 4th in May Kemi will certainly face a VONC in my view, so I will take a bet on those terms, the Tories coming third or worse in May will have a VONC. If the Tories are second or better she won't so the bet is then voidA £50 charity bet that Kemi either does not face a VONC by 1st September - or if she does, she survives it.Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.
Ref 23 (-2)
Lab 19 (+2)
GRN 18 (-1)
Con 17 (=)
LD 13 (-1)
I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.
Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.
If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do
Interested?
Tories have cleared out the mad, insane and stupid to Reform. You are a Better Party without those morons.
Reform are on the slide. Plot the trendline, look at the hurdles they face.
Kemi has found her rhythm - previous government a bit crap, I'm new, I'm punchy, life vs Starmer's inertia
And you want to replace her with Shithole Cleverley?
The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
Green support is rising under Zack Polanski. Who are its new voters?The party's new voter base is younger, student-y, more female, and less financially comfortable than their 2024 voters. They are the heirs of Corbynism: 39% of current supporters backed Labour in 20191/2
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Re: The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
It's also the focus groups are mortified/scared shitless if Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage were PM during this war.Reform were sliding well before the war.Reform are down across the board, Starmer's ratings are improving.Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?Behind a lot of what?
Ref 23 (-2)
Lab 19 (+2)
GRN 18 (-1)
Con 17 (=)
LD 13 (-1)
I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.
Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.
Labour aren't up across the board. Its a MoE movement with one pollster
Starmers personal ratings, yep, maybe a war handling premium
The voters haven't forgotten their pronouncements at the start of the war.
Re: The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
I can't get my head around this sort of thing. I know Ireland is nominally neutral, but it likes to say it is strongly supportive of Ukraine, and yet it's helping supply the Russian defence industry.
I can't think of a previous war where there's been so much trade with the enemy.
From the Shannon to Siberia: How alumina from a Limerick refinery enters Russia’s weapons supply chain
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2026/03/24/from-the-shannon-to-siberia-how-alumina-from-a-limerick-refinery-enters-russias-weapons-supply-chain/
I can't think of a previous war where there's been so much trade with the enemy.
From the Shannon to Siberia: How alumina from a Limerick refinery enters Russia’s weapons supply chain
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2026/03/24/from-the-shannon-to-siberia-how-alumina-from-a-limerick-refinery-enters-russias-weapons-supply-chain/
Re: The nihilism of the Greens and Reform voters – politicalbetting.com
Tom Calver needs to look up the meaning of nihilism.





