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Can Israel tolerate a nuclear armed Iran?

The moment of truth, on this, hurtles towards them

On the one hand, Iran has sworn to annihilate Israel: so no way can the Jewish State allow Iran to get nukes

On the other hand, do they have much choice, if the USA is unwilling to assist in wiping out Iran's nuclear programme? And continue to do so, as the Iranians try again and again?

This may come down to a terrible decision for Bibi.

1 Accept Iran with nukes, which will always mean an existential threat always hangs over Israel, probably rendering Israel unviable = Iranian victory and total defeat for Israel

2 Launch a nuclear attack on Iran, in some desperate attempt to wipe out their nuclear capablity for the foreseeable

3 Attempt regime change by killing every single Iranian leader, and fuck what Trump says


If I was Bibi, I'd go for 3

Israel almost certainly has its own nukes, so Tehran would risk its own destruction if it attacked Israel with nuclear weapons even if it developed them

Israel is so tiny and vulnerable a first strike, destroying the entire country, would be quite feasible

Iran - being ruled by anti-Semitic freakaloid Islamofascist monks - might consider the ensuing deaths of, say, 20m Iranians, a fair price to pay for that outcome. No more Israel

Of course it is madness, but Jews know well that Germany, ostensibly one of the most civilised nations on earth, madly tried to eradicate all Jews in the world a few decades ago

Israel may be tiny but almost certainly has enough nukes to wipe out all Iran, even if it wasn't able to the US would almost certainly nuke Iran to bits if it wiped out Israel

I doubt that very much

If Iran wiped out Israel and Israel, in its dying moments, flung all it nukes at Tehran - a la Samson Doctrine - I imagine the USA would sigh and say Oh well, that's sad. As would China and Russia and the European powers, including us

What does any outside power gain from pouring in more nukes, after that tragic debacle? Nothing

If any of Iran remained standing in that scenario, the evangelical and Jewish lobby in the US would demand Washington finished the job

Which is why Israel has so many nukes - its policy is to utterly destroy, if defeated, all counties it is at war with. So if a country is doing the performative “Death to Israel, but we don’t actually do anything…” - doesn’t help them.

This is why Egypt was first in the peace queue. The Aswan dam was bomb proofed - for conventional munitions. One nuke on the dam face would create a tidal wave that would wipe out the inhabited parts of Egypt. And coat the place in radioactive mud.

Added to which, have we any indication Israel have thermo~nukes or just standard boring fission nukes?
Iran lacks any viable delivery mechanism, increasingly so considering Israel is taking out their launch vehicles. Any attack by them would therefore have to be a “ back of a van” job and if so the US wouldn’t take too kindly to nukes being delivered by UPS.

Most believe that Israel achieved fission devices in the late 60s.

The largest pure fission plutonium bomb ever fired was French, at 225Kt I believe.

With access to 90% enriched uranium, the Americans fired Ivy King at 500Kt, the U.K. Orange Herald at 720Kt.

It’s worth noting that strategic weapons are now smaller than these yields - many modern strategic warheads are about the size of the French fission bomb above.

There are many indications (mainly tritium production) that Israel started building thermonuclear weapons. They would be lighter, cheaper and less vulnerable to predestination.

It is possible that they developed multistage *fission* weapons - the U.K. looked at this, when they were struggling with the H bomb. Essentially, an A bomb sets off another A bomb. Why? Well, the first bomb is used to compress the second. The first bomb is compressed by a few tens of kilos of explosive. The second by kilotons of nuclear energy. Which creates incredible efficiencies.

In any event, every expert thinks that Isreal has hundreds of weapons, in the 100Kt+ range. Probably thermonuclear.

Thank you Sir. You certainly know your onions!

Incidentally, Orange Herald was a classic airburst-

It’s counterintuitive and obviously horrific to say but there is an undeniable beauty in an atomic explosion such as the one you post. Can’t quite put it properly into words. A morbid fascination or is it just a beautiful but terrifying thing?

It is beautiful. It’s born from the concentric symmetry of the device itself. The metals named after the Kings of Hell. The elegance of the physics. Of storms of neutrons denser than rock. Of X-rays that heat the air and push it to the opacity of lead…

In the heart of the largest devices, the energies exceed those in supernova. The Tsar Bomba rang the bell for hundred light years for those with eyes to see. On alien worlds, maybe, they know we are here. Already.

There is no arguing with, or appeal from that fearful symmetry. No lawyers writ or politicians lies can do anything against the absoluteness of Teller-Ulam.

The Last Argument Of Kings.

"Look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair"

Trump is playing for time.

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1935753377385689389

Trump on U.S. military action against Iran: "I will make my decision whether or not to go, within the next two weeks."

A prime time tv event where he goes up or down with his thumb?

Bibi will be getting twitchy. In 2 weeks Israel will be out of modern missiles at the current rate. Iran will not be. And Iron Dome may look like a colander.

Never, ever rely on Trump. Just don’t.

I hope Trump continues to be unreliable in this instance. Israel does need to learn to live with its neighbours a bit, rather than picking fights and getting its 18-stone big brother finish them.

Exactly.

And what fight have they picked, precisely?

With the Palestinians? They attempted to negotiate with them but Arafat walked away. So they tried pulling out of Gaza, and Hamas took over and it led to 7 October.

With Iran? Iran seeks their destruction and nuclear weapons to achieve it?

With Egypt? No, they negotiated peace with them.

With Jordan? No, they negotiated peace with them.

With United Arab Emirates? No, they negotiated peace with them.

With Bahrain? No, they negotiated peace with them.

With Morocco? No, they negotiated peace with them.

With Sudan? No, they negotiated peace with them.

With Saudi? No, they were negotiating peace with them.

Evening PB.

It's not going well for Israel, partly because Gaza has done huge damage to it's western support, and partly because Iran seems to be improving, rather than decreasing, it's weapons power.

The BBC six o clock news had a report from BBC monitoring that sounded like a bit like was from an Iranian government infiltrator. All Iranians pulling together, Israeli propaganda hack on their tv channel not helping them, etc.

They've been Kermitted once before.

Much as the majority likely want regime change, they just as probably don't want it on Don/Bibi terms.

I am incredibly angry with Bibi, because his behavior means that it is highly unlikely that anyone - other than the US (maybe) - takes the Iran nuclear threat seriously.

Israelis and Palestinians are likely to die because of Bibi's personal need to escalate (to stay out of jail).

Can Israel tolerate a nuclear armed Iran?

The moment of truth, on this, hurtles towards them

On the one hand, Iran has sworn to annihilate Israel: so no way can the Jewish State allow Iran to get nukes

On the other hand, do they have much choice, if the USA is unwilling to assist in wiping out Iran's nuclear programme? And continue to do so, as the Iranians try again and again?

This may come down to a terrible decision for Bibi.

1 Accept Iran with nukes, which will always mean an existential threat always hangs over Israel, probably rendering Israel unviable = Iranian victory and total defeat for Israel

2 Launch a nuclear attack on Iran, in some desperate attempt to wipe out their nuclear capablity for the foreseeable

3 Attempt regime change by killing every single Iranian leader, and fuck what Trump says


If I was Bibi, I'd go for 3

Israel almost certainly has its own nukes, so Tehran would risk its own destruction if it attacked Israel with nuclear weapons even if it developed them

Israel is so tiny and vulnerable a first strike, destroying the entire country, would be quite feasible

Iran - being ruled by anti-Semitic freakaloid Islamofascist monks - might consider the ensuing deaths of, say, 20m Iranians, a fair price to pay for that outcome. No more Israel

Of course it is madness, but Jews know well that Germany, ostensibly one of the most civilised nations on earth, madly tried to eradicate all Jews in the world a few decades ago

Israel may be tiny but almost certainly has enough nukes to wipe out all Iran, even if it wasn't able to the US would almost certainly nuke Iran to bits if it wiped out Israel

I doubt that very much

If Iran wiped out Israel and Israel, in its dying moments, flung all it nukes at Tehran - a la Samson Doctrine - I imagine the USA would sigh and say Oh well, that's sad. As would China and Russia and the European powers, including us

What does any outside power gain from pouring in more nukes, after that tragic debacle? Nothing

If any of Iran remained standing in that scenario, the evangelical and Jewish lobby in the US would demand Washington finished the job

Which is why Israel has so many nukes - its policy is to utterly destroy, if defeated, all counties it is at war with. So if a country is doing the performative “Death to Israel, but we don’t actually do anything…” - doesn’t help them.

This is why Egypt was first in the peace queue. The Aswan dam was bomb proofed - for conventional munitions. One nuke on the dam face would create a tidal wave that would wipe out the inhabited parts of Egypt. And coat the place in radioactive mud.

Added to which, have we any indication Israel have thermo~nukes or just standard boring fission nukes?
Iran lacks any viable delivery mechanism, increasingly so considering Israel is taking out their launch vehicles. Any attack by them would therefore have to be a “ back of a van” job and if so the US wouldn’t take too kindly to nukes being delivered by UPS.

Most believe that Israel achieved fission devices in the late 60s.

The largest pure fission plutonium bomb ever fired was French, at 225Kt I believe.

With access to 90% enriched uranium, the Americans fired Ivy King at 500Kt, the U.K. Orange Herald at 720Kt.

It’s worth noting that strategic weapons are now smaller than these yields - many modern strategic warheads are about the size of the French fission bomb above.

There are many indications (mainly tritium production) that Israel started building thermonuclear weapons. They would be lighter, cheaper and less vulnerable to predestination.

It is possible that they developed multistage *fission* weapons - the U.K. looked at this, when they were struggling with the H bomb. Essentially, an A bomb sets off another A bomb. Why? Well, the first bomb is used to compress the second. The first bomb is compressed by a few tens of kilos of explosive. The second by kilotons of nuclear energy. Which creates incredible efficiencies.

In any event, every expert thinks that Isreal has hundreds of weapons, in the 100Kt+ range. Probably thermonuclear.

Thank you Sir. You certainly know your onions!

Incidentally, Orange Herald was a classic airburst-