Best Of

Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

And sometimes words just fail me:

"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

Isn't it the case that public sector wages lag private sector wages - pay settlements tend to be based on historic rates of inflation. In fact, you can see that quite clearly here in Figure 4/5, with public sector wages well behind private sector during the post-COVID period: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/december2025

add pension contributions , cushy number , conditions etc and it is the opposite.

I think it very much depends where you are. In most of Scotland public sector pay is actually substantially ahead of what the private sector is offering. So, for example, a one year qualified solicitor in the private sector will earn somewhere between £40 and £50k outside the most demanding areas. A procurator fiscal with the same qualifications will be paid £52-54K plus the extras that come from the public sector such as pension rights, more holidays, better sick pay, greater security of employment etc.

This is a problem for the private firms and more generally it is a real problem for the economy since the cream of the crop are tempted to the public sector where their skills are not necessarily fully utilised. This makes growing businesses in Scotland, and in other areas with depressed earnings, much more difficult and removes potential innovators or entrepreneurs from the scene.

In contrast, in more affluent areas we see the public sector really struggling to get qualified staff at all because they cannot compete with what is on offer.

The combination of these effects are to depress growth, entrepreneurship and investment in our poorer areas and to increase these in the richer ones. This is one of the major reasons so much money invested in "levelling up" , regional investment funds etc has simply not worked. Ironically, given this money is public sector driven, it can aggravate the problem rather than address it. Do you want a safe, secure, well paid job in some "enterprise company" or take your chances with a dodgy start up?

I think it is a major factor in our economic performance because we create this huge drag factor. Only existing hot spots can create the opportunities and employment needed for growth. Everywhere else the dead hand of an overheavy, over paid public sector destroys growth.

OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-

Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link.
...
Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.

So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.

How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly

Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.

Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.

I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.

I’d worked at home a fair bit before lockdown and it made little or no difference to me but for other colleagues it was a new experience and while some took to it others didn’t and the months of enforced non-office attendance were purgatory and I saw some suffer really badly not only physically and mentally but in terms of effectiveness.

The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.

I have worked at home now for 20+ years , never an issue and had no problems. Even stopped travelling years ago.

yeah working from home is great if you have nice house garden etc. not so much if you in some flatshare.

this is true and a pleasant office etc

Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.

https://www.politico.eu/article/french-and-germans-lean-toward-dialing-back-ukraine-support-new-international-politico-poll-shows/

We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory

A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.

I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.

Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.

Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.

https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/2000583441344028779

Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.

I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.

Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.

One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!

That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.

They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?

There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.

Some combination of INS and sea bed mapping.

Whatever this was, it wasn't a Sea Baby/Magura 5 as they 6m long surface vessels and there is nothing like that on the video.

The Ukranians were obviously active inside the port because they had that camera feed so it might be covert mine laying marketed as a new wonder drone for PR purposes.

A submersible drone is not really a massive advance on previously deployed technology, but it's definitely +1 for Ukraine that there's one less submarine to launch Kalibr cruise missiles.

Meanwhile, this being a Labour government, UK unemployment continues to rise: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98nqe0m008o

And sometimes words just fail me:

"Annual average earnings growth was 3.9% for the private sector and 7.6% for the public sector, across the three-month period."

It’s a re-balancing of long term trends. “Overall, between December 2019 and November 2023, inflation-adjusted average private sector pay grew by 2.3%, whereas public sector pay fell by 0.3%.” says https://ifs.org.uk/publications/recent-trends-public-sector-pay The 2010-9 period was even worse, with again public sector earnings falling in real terms.

No, it is a timing issue in the stats.

It also fails to take account of the total package.

Pay is a part of it.

As a whole public sector get better pensions, holidays, increments and pay offs than the private sector.

That needs factorinf too.

Explains why people are queuing up to get into the public sector.

Oh...

I don’t know what your snide dig is about, but you keep doing what you do best, but my point is perfectly valid. It is a package that is offered not just wages.

Something the debate misses.

Something that quite a lot of people who work in the public sector miss. Because many people don’t really think about and compare their pension.

Introducing Andrea Burnham…

Andy Burnham could be blocked from standing for parliament because of gender balance concerns.

Labour PLP is 54% male and it is unlikely a man will shortlisted as a potential candidate in any forthcoming by-election, NEC source tells @EthanCroft98.

https://x.com/pronouncedalva/status/2000865177571614916?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Have Labour decided what constitutes a man and woman now?

We did all the trans jokes about this a couple of threads ago.

On a serious note - if Starmer does this to block Burnham, I think it further weakens… Starmer.

“He’s desperate to avoid a standup contest” becomes the meme.

I don’t think Starmer will go, this side of the election. Baring a really massive Event or maybe resignation. Labour are terrible at defenestrating failing leaders. And the party constitution s setup to defend them from challenges.

But resignation isn’t really in the character of people who get the PM role - unhealthy levels of self belief are selected for in the most junior politicians.

So 90% he stays. Just ever weaker and less and less influence over his own MPs.

Good morning

Poor economic news this morning but absolutely no surprise

Handing huge public sector pay rises whilst at the same time clobbering business with additional taxes and awarding massive increases in the minimum wage to young workers results in devastating employment and prospects especially for the young

Why would any business employ young workers when they can, for the same wage engage mature and experience staff

Labour often talk about Truss, but Starmer and Reeves have done far more long term damage to the economy and it will be very difficult to reverse

Add in the workers rights bill and the country can now see why ''Labour is not working'

The workers rights bill has largely been fixed. 6 months before full rights kick in is fine. Day 1 was worse than 2 years, but 6 months is better than both.

Most companies I know had a 3 month/6 month trial period and a review at the end of the trial to decide if the job was working out. This should now mean the end-of-trial review will become key to any continuation of employment. Makes sense to review after 3/6 months as it minimises the damage to the company from a poor performer or those unhappy in a role.

Oh great. My daughter helped draft that. [Buffs nails with pride.] Probably means she'll have some time free to see us this Christmas.

In the US, some companies ditched the ever increasing number of rounds of interviews. One interview to get a guesstimate of usefulness, 3 month contract as probation followed (or not) by a permanent role.

Generally received well - both by potential employees and the people working with new hires.

Ukraine starting to lose German and French voter support which is pretty concerning. I suspect we shall get a bad peace deal in 2026, which will give the global economy a temporary boost but at the expense of emboldening Putin and might is right generally.

https://www.politico.eu/article/french-and-germans-lean-toward-dialing-back-ukraine-support-new-international-politico-poll-shows/

We won’t, Zelensky will only accept a ceasefire on current lines and Putin will only accept a ceasefire with Russia getting given more Ukrainian territory

A settlement on current lines wouldn't be good for VVP. Odessa might just make it all worth it. It was the Kulkovye Polye protests/massacre and subsequent firestorm of disinformation from both sides in 2014 that so inflamed Russian ire and germinated the conflict. Getting Katherine's city back would be the sort of sentimental symmetry that nourishes the Slavic psyche.

I see Big Z has now given up on joining NATO so you can sort of see the hazy outlines of a deal that could emerge. Russia will need more though.

Given the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Odessa looks unattainable.

Russian navy down one submarine, taken out by Ukranian suicide drone sub while in port at Novorossiysk.

https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/2000583441344028779

Stand by for a few more Ukranian drone subs heading for Novorossiysk in the coming days and weeks.

I was watching video of that yesterday. The drone rounded several ships and harbour fittings before hitting the submarine. It was seriously impressive but also a bit scary. I really wonder if the RN would have fared any better if facing such an attack.

Very scary. This new drone is basically a navigable torpedo that can go anywhere.

One assumes that the Royal Navy takes port security a little more seriously than the Russians, and can spot an enemy vessel approaching!

That's the rational for the sea drones the RN is testing. But it would require an awful lot of them, and I doubt the MoD has the money.

They surely need satellites to navigate and I imagine in a big war scenario those satellites will be gone in minutes?

There’s probably an inertia/star chart/object recognition/local radio towers based solution that doesn’t need satellites.

I recall how the USAF trained for bombing in the clear skies of the USA only to find that Europe in winter was typically 10/10ths cloud most of the time...

Anyone need a recently graduated physicist? My eldest is struggling to find anything except very occasional short term temp jobs.

Hopefully things will pick up for him, but it’s very demoralising to be stuck in your parents home.

What part of the UK ?

Oxfordshire. He had mixed A-levels (ABCC) & ended up going to Swansea where he got his head down & was given a first (yes, I know a first isn’t hat it used to be, but still) & the prize for best experimental thesis in his year.

He’s never going to be the first pick for the plum jobs - those will go to the Oxbridge/London grads with impeccable CVs - but he’s just getting nothing at all. Any suggestions that I can point him to are most gratefully received - he’s personable & does the work, but he can’t demonstrate that if no one will even interview him.

I’m sure something will turn up eventually, but leads are a bit thin on the ground.

He's not doing anything silly like listing the A level grades on his CV is he?

Problem is that a lot of places have stopped grad level hiring. Often for the last two years.

OT rant about government meetings. I've been sent this email for a Teams call:-

Please join the meeting 5 minutes before your allocated time of 11:15 by clicking on the link.
...
Join the meeting 10 minutes before your allocated time by clicking on the link. It is important that you are ready and join on time.

So in the course of a paragraph, they want me to join at 11.15, 11.10 and 11.05. This automatically generated nonsense must have been sent out for months if not decades with no civil servant bothering to read it.

How much deadweight unproductive time is accounted for by those 10 minutes wasted? People should join meeting on time, keep to the agenda and leave promptly

Er, this is an *online* meeting. JUst make sure it's all set up at 1105, in case of e-hiccups, and then get on with one's desk work till 1115. Makes sense to me.

Presumably the extra five or ten minutes is so you can discuss your cats with colleagues you've never met in person and not take up the timetabled call for this purpose.

I'm amazed at the visions of working life some people on PB have.

I’d worked at home a fair bit before lockdown and it made little or no difference to me but for other colleagues it was a new experience and while some took to it others didn’t and the months of enforced non-office attendance were purgatory and I saw some suffer really badly not only physically and mentally but in terms of effectiveness.

The psychological comfort blanket of the familiarity of the neutral venue was absent. There’s an old adage about work life balance and that is valid on so many levels.

I have worked at home now for 20+ years , never an issue and had no problems. Even stopped travelling years ago.

yeah working from home is great if you have nice house garden etc. not so much if you in some flatshare.

Good morning

Poor economic news this morning but absolutely no surprise

Handing huge public sector pay rises whilst at the same time clobbering business with additional taxes and awarding massive increases in the minimum wage to young workers results in devastating employment and prospects especially for the young

Why would any business employ young workers when they can, for the same wage engage mature and experience staff

Labour often talk about Truss, but Starmer and Reeves have done far more long term damage to the economy and it will be very difficult to reverse

Add in the workers rights bill and the country can now see why ''Labour is not working'

The workers rights bill has largely been fixed. 6 months before full rights kick in is fine. Day 1 was worse than 2 years, but 6 months is better than both.

Most companies I know had a 3 month/6 month trial period and a review at the end of the trial to decide if the job was working out. This should now mean the end-of-trial review will become key to any continuation of employment. Makes sense to review after 3/6 months as it minimises the damage to the company from a poor performer or those unhappy in a role.

It may actually help some companies be pro-active rather than hoping they can fix mediocre employees. I've been guilty of that in the past, its hard to sack people without giving them every chance, but sometimes it is best for the business to be a bit more ruthless.

Day 1 would have just limited employment, especially for anyone with "interesting" backgrounds and led to a surge in agency work which I don't think would have been helpful for either business or worker, just the agency.