Best Of
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
You'll be going on about Hunter Biden next.Buttigieg needs to first explain why he repeatedly lied about Biden's fitness for office.Sadly, I just can't see how Buttigieg gets through the primaries in the South.I think Trump's dire performance as President is in danger of making us forget what a dismal candidate Harris was. She never seemed to say why she wanted to be President, had no original or inspiring ideas and, when given the chance to put her point across, actively fled from the media.For all their faults Kennedy, Clinton, & Obama were three of the most outstanding political leaders of my lifetime. The only potential candidate coming anywhere near now is Buttigieg.
As I've said before, Democrats win when they have a charismatic bullshitter who inspires the young and the left without terrifying the centre and the middle-aged then lets them down in office - see Kennedy, Clinton, Obama. Trump may be so unpopular by 2028 that even Harris will win, or maybe she will be able to fake enough charisma, but the Democrats would be unwise to bank on that.
What do you think?
He can then explain what he achieved himself as transport secretary for four years.
None of that is in the slightest bit relevant to Democratic primaries in three years time.
Assuming the US still has a democracy (not 100% guaranteed), the record of the current administration will be uppermost in voters minds, and whoever has the best shot at uniting the Democrats is likely to get the nomination.
I doubt that will be Harris, and on current form, it might just be Newsom. He's not exactly adored by the Democratic base, but he's getting traction for leading the opposition to Trump. Quite what he does after leaving the governor's office at the end of 2026 is an interesting question.
Nigelb
1
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
I think Trump's dire performance as President is in danger of making us forget what a dismal candidate Harris was. She never seemed to say why she wanted to be President, had no original or inspiring ideas and, when given the chance to put her point across, actively fled from the media.Harris had neither ideas nor any interest in campaigning on Biden's achievements.
As I've said before, Democrats win when they have a charismatic bullshitter who inspires the young and the left without terrifying the centre and the middle-aged then lets them down in office - see Kennedy, Clinton, Obama. Trump may be so unpopular by 2028 that even Harris will win, or maybe she will be able to fake enough charisma, but the Democrats would be unwise to bank on that.
She should have been to a different Biden subsidised new factory every day.
Instead she left an open goal for Trump to say that Biden's strategy had failed.
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Inflation minus 0.2% in November, bringing the annual rate down to 3.2%. I expect that'll continue to fall down towards target by the middle of next year.You're probably right, these figures have changed the balance. But the 10 year gilt is still at 4.5% and the illusion of control that the base rate gives us is weakened if the gap between the two becomes too great. I acknowledge that I am somewhat hawkish about these things but personally I would be voting no change tomorrow.
BoE certain to cut rates to 3.75% tomorrow and we're likely to see further cuts next year.
DavidL
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Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
And good morning. I’ve taken the step to self-ID as MelonB (the short form of the grape variety Melon de Bourgogne) after being cheerfully rumbled last week by a “business associate”.
MelonB
2
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.Harris lost the popular vote *against Donald Trump*. That's how badly she did.
Cookie
8
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Last night here for sure along with gale force winds.Precipitation within sight was always one of my favourites. Described a fair bit of Scotland a fair bit of the time.It's a weird yet comforting incantation to wake up to.Christ, that Jane Austen style shipping forecast on R4 is total cringe. If they didn’t cobble it together using AI they made every effort to make it sound as if they did.I find it impentrable but restful. It's good if some things don't change!
Moderate to good.
malcolmg
1
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
I have the joy of being able to listen to the morning one and then check their work by looking out of my bedroom window and seeing the sea - I don’t mind what the sea conditions are at this time of year as I won’t be out on it but the wind conditions are of interest when planning the day.I used to like it when cricket commentary would break off for it. Quite apart from the poetry of it, a reminder that what your attention on was only a game.Yes, also I think that as the majority of people would have only likely heard it whilst awake in the dark of the night it’s not associated with, for example, sunny days on the beach.It is redolent of a quieter, safer, more innocent time that maybe never existed, but regardless is a world away from the reality of life today.Sailing By always makes me feel immensely melancholy for some reason.i used to listen before I went to sleep, after Sailing By.It's a weird yet comforting incantation to wake up to.Christ, that Jane Austen style shipping forecast on R4 is total cringe. If they didn’t cobble it together using AI they made every effort to make it sound as if they did.I find it impentrable but restful. It's good if some things don't change!
Moderate to good.
And like others, I enjoy listening to it late at night, in bed - a moment to reflect on your fortunes at being 30 miles inland and not in colossal seas in South East Iceland.
boulay
1
Re: Starmer once again displays his lawyerly brilliance – politicalbetting.com
Good news for Guyana, I guess.
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
Trump: "Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America. It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us. The illegitimate Maduro Regime is using Oil from these stolen Oil Fields to finance themselves, Drug Terrorism, Human Trafficking, Murder, and Kidnapping. For the theft of our Assets, and many other reasons, including Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking, the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2001078084972298619
Re: Starmer once again displays his lawyerly brilliance – politicalbetting.com
I did specifically mean 'patriarchal' - in the Labour Party sense. Oh so pro-equality and oh-so pro-diversity. But oh so run by dull talentless men and oh so London based.Paternalistic ... patriarchal is someone else (the odd presenter aside).I honestly don't mind them being a bit patriarchal and making what they want to make. I just wish it was also less shit.The more you spread the cost the easier it is to pretend that it isn’t actually that big and that we’re all funding it and watching together. They seem to believe that if they wish hard enough and wait long enough all of their opponents will somehow just drop dead and that they won’t have to actually think about what people want to watch rather than what they want to make.But why tax people online, rather than an extra tax on retired accountants?Because subscription rates are dropping along with use rates.The basic problem is - why a digital tax?That sounds ok. But I think I prefer general taxation. Or do I? Not sure. So long as we don't lose the BBC. I value it highly.The BBC themselves want a digital tax. On ISPs.That's the 'fund from general taxation' option. Then like schools, hospitals etc it's free at the point of delivery.Per Telegraph:Why not just give everyone a free TV licence?
"Benefit claimants could receive free television licences under sweeping BBC reforms being considered by Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary."
So the actual license payer will not just be stumping up for Trump's amour propre
Because that way the tax will be hidden from the public. Whose bills for internet connections will go up, of course.
Then all the BBC has to do is ask for more free money every year.
That’s a tax on every business or person online.
The latter would cause a lesser reduction in economic activity.
Somewhere in my fevered imagination - there is a great big Terry Gilliam-style angry 'Zardoz-meets-Lord-Reith' head being asked to approve any simpering, feeble-minded project from a 'commissioning editor' about their latest pet idea. Zapped with lasers at the first hint of an eye-roll from the god-head.
I'd pay good money to watch that, now that I think about it. Any commissioning editors around?
ohnotnow
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