Best Of

Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Because they thought his behaviour attracted voters from the red wall.

When Boris was the outsider sticking it to the establishment he could attract support from the people.

When he became the establishment sticking it to the people the dynamic had fundamentally changed.

At that point he had to follow his own laws and be seen to be doing so.

Dura lex, sed lex as Boris should have known.

Our University sector is very strong but in a serious financial situation having over expanded and having become too reliant on overseas students. Right now we are seeing waves of redundancies and possible closures. Is Erasmus really the best use for £570m? How many people in the UK will be denied a University education from that choice?

My daughter did a year in the Netherlands with Erasmus. She enjoyed it immensely but the longer term benefits are a lot less clear. It was also interesting to see her cohort. I think she was definitely one of the poorer participants and the weighting to privileged private school kids was very high.

Interesting, that latter point.

The Scottish universities' admissions policies is weighted to favour applicants from less successful schools in Scotland. So you can get in with lower grades.

Sounds like it might help kids from poorer or less supportive backgrounds?

In fact, in the town I know well, it works in favour of the kids who have parents who pay for private tuition. Pretty well all the kids who have been offered places at the "ancients" (St Andrews, Edinburgh etc) have been tutored to pass the exams they need for medicine, law, etc.

The law of unintended consequences.

And, of course, the free tuition fees, which are supposed to help disadvantaged kinds is, actually, overwhelmingly trousered by well-to-do middle-class families.

£570mn a year for Erasmus?! I see the Chagos negotiators have already found a new job in government.

We need a comparator on that.

The requested contribution for 2021 that the UK Govt walked away from was £600 million per annum: *

Under Erasmus+, the UK already contributed significantly more than we got out in the form of receipts, and the only terms of offer for continued participation would have required an annual gross contribution of £600 million, or a net contribution in the region of £2 billion over the course of the programme.

£600 million a year in 2027 with 2021->2027 inflation of 30% (about right) would be £780 million pro-rata, so £570 million is a like for like reduction of 27%.

Is that a good deal? I think that probably depends on how well we fill our quota of 100k students.

Back in 2020 there was funding for 55.7k students to be involved, and we sent 10k and received 16k. It's up to us to use it fully. I think in that case it will be good value, especially in undermining the xenophobia that poisons our politics.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg4ng7ee9vwo

* https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2021-07-12/HL1883/

It's not a zero sum game anyway - just as with our membership of the EU.
There's cake in hosting the best and brightest from the continent - and vice versa.

It's the little Britainers who oppose such deals.

Re the recent discussion of Nimbyism not being specifically a LD thing, here are some Tory Nimbies [edit] objecting to a major UK-wide project - in comparison the SNP ones are trying to go for mitigation.

Slightly surprisingly, the Tory lead Nimby is quoting from Burns' words on Edward of England and Bannockburn, though tbf I'm not quite sure if he realises it.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/25703365.moray-council-objects-186-kilometre-ssen-powerline/?ref=eb&nid=1948&block=article_block_a&u=f140ec39d500193051a33e140c12bd95&date=161225

Which Tory is it? And what's the quote? (Paywalled, I'm afraid)

It's Moray Council in re the Beauly to Peterhead overhead powerline.

'A debate over the 186-kilometre overhead transmission line today, Tuesday December 16, resulted in councillors voting 9-4 in favour of the objection.

Councillor Marc Macrae (Fochabers Lhanbryde, Conservative) seconded his party colleague councillor David Gordon (Speyside Glenlivet), who put forward an amendment to raise an objection to SSEN’s application.

Macrae said: “SSEN put the mental in environmental. This is vandalism of our countryside.”

[...]

Macrae explained that the motion wasn’t necessarily a rejection, but a chance for the applicant to propose something better.

He added: “We should send them (SSEN) home to think again.”'

SSEN is ofr course Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks. Not clear if there is agreement within the whole SNP group.

PS And I gave wrong credit for the song! It is of course Roy Williamson of the Corries.

Have had some contact with T & D guys (Transmission and Distribution) over the years and this is a common issue with any new Grid installation. People always want the lines (400kv?) buried but don't accept that there will be significant environmental damage and cost if you do bury it. I also know the area well as my OH is from there and beautiful as it is, it's not that special.

This sort of nimbyism is not specific to any party, nor is it specific to this country. A few brown envelopes have been known (allegedly) to smooth the way but it's illegal in this country AIUI.

https://www.ssen-transmission.co.uk/projects/project-planned-areas/?projectId={6e129490-ccf0-4fff-af42-9e8b156f7cca}

Aha. A Political No.

We know them well down here.

Where do Planning Appeals go in Scotland?

SG, unless a Local Review by a convened board of local councillors fopr small scale stuff, I believe.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/planning-appeals-guide/

Often decided by a designated Reporter.

'The vast majority of appeals are considered and decided by Scottish Government reporters. The reporter is appointed by Scottish Ministers to make the decision on their behalf.

A very small number of appeals are not delegated to reporters for decision; but instead are 'recalled' by Scottish Ministers who will then make the final decision themselves. In those cases, the appeal will still be examined by a reporter, who will then write a report and make a recommendation for Ministers to consider before they make their decision. Ministers do not have to agree with the reporter's recommendation.'

I dont think anyone has commented on latest opinion poll from Wales for Senedd elections.

Plaid 33%
Reform 30%
Labour 10% !!!
Conservative 10%
Green 9%
LibDem 6%

This would give (around):
Plaid 39 seats
Reform 34 seats
Labour 10 seats
Conservatives 6 seats
LibDem 4 seats
Green 3 seats

The finishing line (in new 96 member Senedd) is 49,

So Plaid & Lab = 49
Reform & Con = 40

But with a small movement in seats it might be possible for Plaid to form a coalition with Green & LD...consigning Labour to the back benches. Popcorn supplies on order....

That seat projection looks overly generous to LDs to me

I just realised i have Green & LD projections reversed. Should be Green 4, LD 3

I think Trump's dire performance as President is in danger of making us forget what a dismal candidate Harris was. She never seemed to say why she wanted to be President, had no original or inspiring ideas and, when given the chance to put her point across, actively fled from the media.

As I've said before, Democrats win when they have a charismatic bullshitter who inspires the young and the left without terrifying the centre and the middle-aged then lets them down in office - see Kennedy, Clinton, Obama. Trump may be so unpopular by 2028 that even Harris will win, or maybe she will be able to fake enough charisma, but the Democrats would be unwise to bank on that.

For all their faults Kennedy, Clinton, & Obama were three of the most outstanding political leaders of my lifetime. The only potential candidate coming anywhere near now is Buttigieg.

What do you think?

The nominee Polymarket, with $300m+ traded so far, is very weird.

https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

The two favourites are Newsom and AOC, and I don’t see how either of them get there. Middle America isn’t voting for a very coastal liberal.

Gretchen Whitmer at 50/1 could be a good outsider, and they’ll want to keep at least one woman in the race for as long as possible. Josh Shapiro is probably underpriced at 20/1, as is Andy Beshear at 33/1.

Middle America doesn't come into it. This is the nominee market.

I do wonder if the Dem primary voters will even try and take into account the suitability of the candidates to beat a Republican (likely one of Rubio or Vance or DeSantis), or if they go for the most woke coastal ideologue that makes them feel warm and fuzzy inside?

Should not be hard to beat that trio of absolute donkeys

Quite. Trump is at record levels of unpopularity. If that continues (probable), and the election is fair (unknown), then the Democrats will win with just about anyone, and said winner will get the Nobel Peace Prize just for not being Trump.

Sorta like Obama and GWB?

Re the recent discussion of Nimbyism not being specifically a LD thing, here are some Tory Nimbies [edit] objecting to a major UK-wide project - in comparison the SNP ones are trying to go for mitigation.

Slightly surprisingly, the Tory lead Nimby is quoting from Burns' words on Edward of England and Bannockburn, though tbf I'm not quite sure if he realises it.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/25703365.moray-council-objects-186-kilometre-ssen-powerline/?ref=eb&nid=1948&block=article_block_a&u=f140ec39d500193051a33e140c12bd95&date=161225

Which Tory is it? And what's the quote? (Paywalled, I'm afraid)

It's Moray Council in re the Beauly to Peterhead overhead powerline.

'A debate over the 186-kilometre overhead transmission line today, Tuesday December 16, resulted in councillors voting 9-4 in favour of the objection.

Councillor Marc Macrae (Fochabers Lhanbryde, Conservative) seconded his party colleague councillor David Gordon (Speyside Glenlivet), who put forward an amendment to raise an objection to SSEN’s application.

Macrae said: “SSEN put the mental in environmental. This is vandalism of our countryside.”

[...]

Macrae explained that the motion wasn’t necessarily a rejection, but a chance for the applicant to propose something better.

He added: “We should send them (SSEN) home to think again.”'

SSEN is ofr course Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks. Not clear if there is agreement within the whole SNP group.

PS And I gave wrong credit for the song! It is of course Roy Williamson of the Corries.

Have had some contact with T & D guys (Transmission and Distribution) over the years and this is a common issue with any new Grid installation. People always want the lines (400kv?) buried but don't accept that there will be significant environmental damage and cost if you do bury it. I also know the area well as my OH is from there and beautiful as it is, it's not that special.

This sort of nimbyism is not specific to any party, nor is it specific to this country. A few brown envelopes have been known (allegedly) to smooth the way but it's illegal in this country AIUI.

https://www.ssen-transmission.co.uk/projects/project-planned-areas/?projectId={6e129490-ccf0-4fff-af42-9e8b156f7cca}

Edit: Fochabers is the back of beyond and Lhanbryde is even more insignificant, so it's quite bizarre they can cause this disruption.

Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Had Boris remained Conservative leader, Reform would not have got 14% at the last GE and Reform would not now be leading the polls.

Indeed Sunak might now be leading the polls as the new LOTO, Rishi made a stupid political move resigning to remove Boris

The expression 'the blind cannot see' comes to mind with your idolatry of Johnson

The obvious question is how would the Conservative Party survive having a Prime Minister suspended from Parliament for obvious lying?

But to be charitable... Johnson was the most electorally successful Conservative leader since Thatcher- the only one to get a thumping majority. Mostly by persuading Farage to walk off the relevant bits of the battlefield in 2019.

Boris won a thumping majority - then proceeded to shit the bed.

£570mn a year for Erasmus?! I see the Chagos negotiators have already found a new job in government.

We need a comparator on that.

The requested contribution for 2021 that the UK Govt walked away from was £600 million per annum: *

Under Erasmus+, the UK already contributed significantly more than we got out in the form of receipts, and the only terms of offer for continued participation would have required an annual gross contribution of £600 million, or a net contribution in the region of £2 billion over the course of the programme.

£600 million a year in 2027 with 2021->2027 inflation of 30% (about right) would be £780 million pro-rata, so £570 million is a like for like reduction of 27%.

Is that a good deal? I think that probably depends on how well we fill our quota of 100k students.

Back in 2020 there was funding for 55.7k students to be involved, and we sent 10k and received 16k. It's up to us to use it fully. I think in that case it will be good value, especially in undermining the xenophobia that poisons our politics.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg4ng7ee9vwo

* https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2021-07-12/HL1883/

It's not a zero sum game anyway - just as with our membership of the EU.
There's cake in hosting the best and brightest from the continent - and vice versa.

It's the little Britainers who oppose such deals.

I think it does highlight the increasingly transactional nature of our current relationship with the EU.

When we were members we notably failed to use the relationship to our best advantage - I would argue at least in part because of complacent, woolly brains high in the civil service, arse sitting rathe rather than paying continuing attention, and inconsistent policy.

I'd say the lesson is more important now.