Best Of

There's a lot of engineering him into position I think, and Starmer is clearly on board - not sure how else someone openly campaigning for the top job is still in the Cabinet. He is the annointed successor - and always was.

For that reason, I don't think he makes it.

Doubt he is anointed. There was number 10 briefing against him about a month ago.

IMO wouldn't be surprised if Starmer sacks him, says he needs to bring someone in to end the strikes.

I think it depends on how desperate Labour becomes, which itself depends on how catastrophic the local elections are. If Labour has a true mare - for example losing control of London Boroughs which they currently run with large majorities - then switching to Streeting might be on the cards. The one caveat is if the big winner in the cities happens to be the Greens, Labour members might conclude that being more radical and passionate and tacking left is what's required.

Labour won a NEV of 35% in 2022, and will probably win about 10-15% in May. Reform won nothing in 2022, and will probably win 25-30% next year. The Greens would surge, but the traditional outperformance in local elections by the Lib Dem’s will take a lot of votes that would otherwise go to them. The Conservatives will probably win 20-25%, compared to 30% in 2022.

What that likely means is Labour being hit on multiple fronts.

Boroughs like Barnsley, Wakefield, Sunderland, Halton, Sandwell, Thurrock will go Reform.

Islington, Hackney, Camden, Lambeth, Birmingham, Southwark, Brent, South Tyneside, will be lost to NOC at least (Your Party will also be challenging in some).

The Tories will lose a string of counties and new unitaries to Reform, but pick up Westminster, Barnet, Wandsworth,

And of course, the results in Wales and Scotland will be horrid.

I suspect Labour will actually get about 20%, win London overall still and do better than expected in Scotland where Holyrood polls suggest Labour gains from the SNP as in the Hamilton by election. That will stop a bad night for Starmer becoming a catastrophe and may save his job

Otherwise agree with Reform and the Greens likely the main winners next year plus Plaid in Wales and the LDs treading water as the Tories and Labour collapse

With both Tories and Labour down, I'd be surprised and disappointed if the LDs just tread water. National opinion polls during the 2022 local campaign period had Labour on around 40%, the Tories on around 34%, with the LDs at 10%. The political situation now is hugely better for the LDs in relation to both the major parties, notwithstanding Reform's huge surge from just 5% back then.

You may see some LD gains from the Tories, Labour and SNP but offset by some LD losses to the Greens and Reform and Plaid

Mark Pack is a good scout and he has been dutifully recording the LD's ups and downs since the GE. It's been generally a pattern of modest progress, and I would expect that to continue through the May contests.

One would think the ID card Bill, and rejoining the EU moving the agenda, are both in the LibDem’s favour?

Mark Pack is standing down as Lib Dem President from January 1st, so he will have more time on his hands (as if!).

I hope to engage him in suggesting ways in which members of the House of Lords can be held to account when they waste the time of the HoL repeatedly spouting inane bollocks into the national conversation, displaying the hinterland of a lobotomised slug.

(That follows a particular recent debate on aspects of 'cycling' where there were peers reading out bits of the Telegraph, and proposing amendments to introduce laws that have already been in law for nearly half a century already.)

Since when has death by dangerous cycling, death by careless cycling or serious injury by dangerous or careless cycling been UK law for cyclists unlike the equivalent death or serious injury offences by dangerous or careless driving for drivers of vehicles?

They used wanton and furious driving in this case

Where a dozy woman was looking at her phone and walked out on the road and the guy was using a not road legal bike.

I had a little sympathy for the cyclist. She should be paying attention when crossing the road.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-41028321

I read about a case where a guy was delivering a Chinese takeaway on an e-bike and a hit a pedestrian who was crossing the road. The rider was done for wonton and furious driving.

Interesting article in the Telegraph saying Help to buy has created a whole set of housing problems at great expense to tax payers

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/a783b34855474f85

It's so left field I wonder what the long term agenda is for reform - actively building social housing?

The article is about Right to buy - which is different to Help to buy.

Yep I'm an idiot - but the fact that the Telegraph is saying right to buy (THE Thatcherite policy) was a bad idea with serious consequences is incredibly interesting.

The problem was the profits were not used to build replacement homes not with right to buy itself

The problem is nothing to do with right to buy.

The problem is planning.

The houses sold with right to buy still exist. The problem is our population has increased by over ten million people, and our demographics changed to need more houses per capita, and we have not constructed remotely enough houses as people object to new buildings.

The problem is not planning. Sure, more houses would be good but it isn’t going to happen. You are being naive.

Planning is being identified as a problem by developers as it is a cost. Developers don’t give a shit about the built environment or infrastructure. We need planning.

And to be clear.

There are 1.5 million unbuilt houses in developer land banks. Prices will never ever drop while the private sector is controlling the housing supply. And it does.

Developers who landbank too long should be fined

Charge council tax, at the unoccupied house rate, from one year after PP is given.

There's a lot of engineering him into position I think, and Starmer is clearly on board - not sure how else someone openly campaigning for the top job is still in the Cabinet. He is the annointed successor - and always was.

For that reason, I don't think he makes it.

Doubt he is anointed. There was number 10 briefing against him about a month ago.

IMO wouldn't be surprised if Starmer sacks him, says he needs to bring someone in to end the strikes.

I think it depends on how desperate Labour becomes, which itself depends on how catastrophic the local elections are. If Labour has a true mare - for example losing control of London Boroughs which they currently run with large majorities - then switching to Streeting might be on the cards. The one caveat is if the big winner in the cities happens to be the Greens, Labour members might conclude that being more radical and passionate and tacking left is what's required.

Labour won a NEV of 35% in 2022, and will probably win about 10-15% in May. Reform won nothing in 2022, and will probably win 25-30% next year. The Greens would surge, but the traditional outperformance in local elections by the Lib Dem’s will take a lot of votes that would otherwise go to them. The Conservatives will probably win 20-25%, compared to 30% in 2022.

What that likely means is Labour being hit on multiple fronts.

Boroughs like Barnsley, Wakefield, Sunderland, Halton, Sandwell, Thurrock will go Reform.

Islington, Hackney, Camden, Lambeth, Birmingham, Southwark, Brent, South Tyneside, will be lost to NOC at least (Your Party will also be challenging in some).

The Tories will lose a string of counties and new unitaries to Reform, but pick up Westminster, Barnet, Wandsworth,

And of course, the results in Wales and Scotland will be horrid.

I suspect Labour will actually get about 20%, win London overall still and do better than expected in Scotland where Holyrood polls suggest Labour gains from the SNP as in the Hamilton by election. That will stop a bad night for Starmer becoming a catastrophe and may save his job

Otherwise agree with Reform and the Greens likely the main winners next year plus Plaid in Wales and the LDs treading water as the Tories and Labour collapse

With both Tories and Labour down, I'd be surprised and disappointed if the LDs just tread water. National opinion polls during the 2022 local campaign period had Labour on around 40%, the Tories on around 34%, with the LDs at 10%. The political situation now is hugely better for the LDs in relation to both the major parties, notwithstanding Reform's huge surge from just 5% back then.

You may see some LD gains from the Tories, Labour and SNP but offset by some LD losses to the Greens and Reform and Plaid

Mark Pack is a good scout and he has been dutifully recording the LD's ups and downs since the GE. It's been generally a pattern of modest progress, and I would expect that to continue through the May contests.

One would think the ID card Bill, and rejoining the EU moving the agenda, are both in the LibDem’s favour?

Objectively the going is good for them, but somehow they just don't get the pulse racing and so progress tends to be stealthy rather than dramatic. This does however give them a solid base that is not vulnerable to fads.

But who will be the next leader to be replaced if not Kemi? Sir Keir is under attack but there is no real mechanism to oust him, although I think he will retire anyway.

I'm not convinced about "retires without being ousted", unless you mean to include in that "is practically speaking forced to resign but doesn't formally lose a leadership contest". Post-war, Wikipedia tells me there were some Tory PMs who resigned due to illness in the 50s and 60s, Harold Wilson seems to have resigned of his own accord (possibly with a side order of health issues), and we could argue whether Cameron was forced out or chose to resign, but everyone else I think was either effectively ousted or lost an election. Starmer is 63, which is older than I thought, but he hasn't been successful in politics long enough to develop Wilson's "been around this racetrack so often that I cannot generate any more enthusiasm" weariness. So I think that the most likely thing is that he'll continue to the next election, because as you say Labour doesn't have the mechanisms and enthusiasm for toppling leaders that the Tories do.

I think Starmer will follow Wilson in retiring with, as you put it, a side order of health issues. Aside from that, Starmer is already our oldest Prime Minister since Mrs Thatcher and if he were to stay till 2029 would be the oldest since Jim Callaghan; Starmer is used to this era where PMs serve just two or three years (Brown, May, Boris, Truss, Rishi) and will not have the vanity to reach for ten like Blair or Thatcher.

As noted by TSE Twitter has reverted to pushing folk into the 'for you' feed as default. For me this morning it was this particulary unconvincing attempt at 'I'm not a cnut, honest'.



https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2002753775891857886?s=20

A good family man picture of Jenrick, similar to what US Presidential candidates might do. Just a nice modest picture of him with his girls for Christmas though I am sure, as he of course definitely has no leadership ambitions anymore and thinks Kemi is a wonderful leader

Jenrick has a dilemma. For most of the past year, the thinking on the right was that Kemi would be ousted and that a replacement would be needed who could reach a pact with Reform and who could be the first Cambridge-educated Prime Minister since Stanley Baldwin (see, I do read these threads). But now Kemi is on the upswing.

But who will be the next leader to be replaced if not Kemi? Sir Keir is under attack but there is no real mechanism to oust him, although I think he will retire anyway. But look at the discussion around better relations with the EU, Erasmus, a possible customs union and ask what of the dog who has not barked in the night time. Is Nigel Farage losing interest in politics? He is rarely sighted in Clacton or the House of Commons.

So should Jenrick defect to Reform in hope of an early leadership election? The trouble there is that man of the people Danny Kruger has beaten him to it. Still, he would almost certainly get a Cabinet post if the balloon does not pop.

Farage isn't going to lose interest while Reform are polling so high, it's more a case of when/whether his financial and media backers decide to switch back to the Conservatives.

Reform is turning into an openly racist party these days. I wonder if the Conservatives could exploit the just-about-plausible deniability market?

Provided people have short memories, and they do, there’s space to be the “quietly competent economically literate, and non-racist, let’s have some hope for the future” party.

That isn’t Kemi though.

Yep. The Tories USP, the reason they win more elections than they lose, is 'better with the £££ than Labour'. It's a default assumption of the electorate, all the more powerful for being based on brand perception rather than dry facts and figures. They lost this USP with Truss (which is why that episode was so disastrous for them) and they won't win again until they get it back. Corollary: when they do get it back they will win again. Can this happen as quickly as the next election? Yes, it can. Truss will be 7 years ago by then. I'd never written them off and I certainly don't do so now. They are live outsiders not no-hopers.

What has to happen for them? Two things above all else: Labour to succeed on immigration and fail on the economy. They need immigration to fall in salience because if that's the election issue Reform will win. The Tories need the election issue to be the £££. Specifically they need the economy and public finances to deteriorate from here rather than improve. If this happens, doesn't matter why, and they can retrieve that USP (ie it proves strong enough to withstand the Trussterfuck), I give them a good chance of returning to power (as largest party anyway) next time.