Best Of
Re: They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales – politicalbetting.com
Like the rest of those you evidently follow on X, you don't get Newsom's game.Political analysis of the week.A great example of how Gavin Newsom is as unsuitable as Kamala Harris was as a presidential candidate. He’s not going to out-Trump the president, no matter how hard he tries.
(Truncated for brevity.)
https://x.com/CAgovernor/status/2001479563222954403
Trump tonight:
Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me..
“Make America California Again” has little support in California any more, especially when there’s been precisely no houses rebuilt from January’s fires.
He's not trying to "out-Trump" Trump; he's just mocking him. A tactic which has put him at or near the top of the polling for the nomination.
Nigelb
4
Re: They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales – politicalbetting.com
I don't much like Newsom, but he has the advantage over Trump that he is not senile, insane, stupid, nor malevolent.Political analysis of the week.A great example of how Gavin Newsom is as unsuitable as Kamala Harris was as a presidential candidate. He’s not going to out-Trump the president, no matter how hard he tries.
(Truncated for brevity.)
https://x.com/CAgovernor/status/2001479563222954403
Trump tonight:
Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me Me..
“Make America California Again” has little support in California any more, especially when there’s been precisely no houses rebuilt from January’s fires.
Sean_F
6
Re: They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales – politicalbetting.com
Terror arrests surge by 660% due to Palestine Action ban
A case study in "Don't do something just because you can".
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/palestine-action-ban-arrests-terrorism-act-b2886879.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Bluesky#Echobox=1766051875
FF43
2
Re: They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales – politicalbetting.com
It’s interesting that inflation has surprised on the downside twice in a row now. It was previously surprising on the upside.
Our economics team have been predicting it to fall to target earlier than consensus, so it seems they’re right, for now.
Our economics team have been predicting it to fall to target earlier than consensus, so it seems they’re right, for now.
MelonB
1
Re: They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales – politicalbetting.com
Some years ago, on one of the police blogs, the matter of using anti-terrorism legislation to arrest ordinary people was raised.
Terror arrests surge by 660% due to Palestine Action ban
A case study in "Don't do something just because you can".
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/palestine-action-ban-arrests-terrorism-act-b2886879.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Bluesky#Echobox=1766051875
The response by a number of serving officers was incredulous - “If we have these powers, we have to use them!”
Frankly, I find this mentality insane. Too much Alistair Crowley* and not enough quiet decency.
*"Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law"
Re: They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales – politicalbetting.com
As the market had already priced in a cut, but expected that cut to be less-narrowly voted for, and thus more likely further cuts in the future priced in too.Rate cut to 3.75% on 5 to 4 decision by committee...and, counterintuitively, the pound went UP against USD.
A 5-4 vote indicates lower likelihood of further cuts any time soon, so that needs pricing in.
Re: They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales – politicalbetting.com
Because the vote was tighter (To the high side) than expected.Rate cut to 3.75% on 5 to 4 decision by committee...and, counterintuitively, the pound went UP against USD.
Pulpstar
2
Re: They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales – politicalbetting.com
Russian MiG-31 fighter jet getting hit by a Ukranian drone, at Belbek airbase in Crimea.Not just the one fighter either, a bunch of air defences also taken out including two Nebu long-range radars.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2001605459103424676
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/2001604041319563514
Sandpit
3
Re: They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales – politicalbetting.com
Hang on. They won’t actually have the rights to the games, but they are prepared to pay that much for a programme which talks about them but cannot show them?Britain's top sports presenter is laughing all the way to the Bank of Netflix:-SPotY tonight btw so if you want to check your betting books and how to vote...I do hope Gary Lineker won't be presenting
Gary Lineker to earn whopping £14million from Netflix deal for 2026 World Cup – TEN TIMES his old BBC salary
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/37655980/gary-lineker-netflix-world-cup-deal-podcast/
I do not understand people today. Especially kids. They watch cheap, crappy, YouTube videos of someone doing a thing or talking about watching a thing, instead of doing the thing or watching the thing themselves.
biggles
2
Re: They used to weigh Labour votes in Wales – politicalbetting.com
Rate cut to 3.75% on 5 to 4 decision by committeeAnd gilt yields jumped on the news. Inflation expectations and the impact on Sterling outweighing the lower base rate.
EDIT: actually looks like the market is now assuming fewer cuts in future due to the closeness of the vote. So my initial supposition was wrong.
MelonB
1