Best Of

Inflation minus 0.2% in November, bringing the annual rate down to 3.2%. I expect that'll continue to fall down towards target by the middle of next year.

BoE certain to cut rates to 3.75% tomorrow and we're likely to see further cuts next year.

You're probably right, these figures have changed the balance. But the 10 year gilt is still at 4.5% and the illusion of control that the base rate gives us is weakened if the gap between the two becomes too great. I acknowledge that I am somewhat hawkish about these things but personally I would be voting no change tomorrow.

There is a fiscal question and a monetary question.

The government's borrowing costs for 10-year and longer lending is driven in part by the amount of borrowing they need to do, rather than expectations that the BoE will need to hike rates again. That's no business of the BoE. The 10-year swap rate is around 4.0% so not dissimilar to short-term rates.

On the monetary side, we can see 1) falling headline and core inflation, 2) rising unemployment, 3) weak economy, 4) Trump tariffs which should be disinflationary here at the margins for imports from third countries. And unlike last year, the budget was a nothing event for future inflation.

My guess is we see base rates down at 3% by the end of next year.

Where do we go from here ?

Do we accept our new vassal status to the US as the Trump administration attempts to dismember the EU and redraw Europe's boundaries in collaboration with Putin ?

Or do we side with Europe ?

It not at all clear there's any way of avoiding the very uncomfortable choices coming up, long before any prospect of a change of leadership in the US (assuming that's still allowed to happen).

There is no way of avoiding the choices.

Europe needs someone to step up.

Merz is the best hope. We shall see if he has the balls and the brains to realise the world the world has changed.

I'd agree with you.
I'm just curious what the rest of PB makes of it.
Business as usual doesn't seem an option.

I think Gardenwalker's idea of an Anglo-Canadian Union was the right sort of scale of response needed.

It's very concerning that it looks like the EU will be unable to agree to seize Russian assets. That would indicate that the EU is not a reliable partner when it comes to confronting Russian aggression, weakened too much by quisling countries like Hungary, parochial self-interests, and weak links who can be easily intimidated by third countries. And a Le Pen victory in France will only make that worse.

So we have to draw close to whichever friendly countries are left, to gain the scale to stand against those powers that are a threat to our freedoms.

£570mn a year for Erasmus?! I see the Chagos negotiators have already found a new job in government.

I have no problem re-joining Eramus but it seems strange that our granddaughter spent her penultimate Leeds degree course in 2024 in Turin University so what is the difference that will cost £570million pa ?

As I've said, I've not stopped hosting exchange students and we send around 20 of our final year pharmacy students overseas for a semester despite not being in Eramus. I think its more about funding for the kids to do it - it can be expensive (you need a house in the UK which either means paying twice for accommodation or subletting, then there is the travel etc). Its not inherently bad, but i do wish people would stop thinking its the only possible way for students to study overseas. Its a bit like regarding the RussellGroup as the best universities simply because they say they are (but what of Bath, a 10 ten Uni in every survey?)

Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Had Boris remained Conservative leader, Reform would not have got 14% at the last GE and Reform would not now be leading the polls.

Indeed Sunak might now be leading the polls as the new LOTO, Rishi made a stupid political move resigning to remove Boris

Boris had driven too many of his colleagues away with his own behaviour.

And would have driven even more away if he had remained PM for a few more months.

Say what you like but the fundamental problem was Boris's journey of self-destruction and the unwillingness of the Conservative establishment to do anything about it.

Boris could have been prime minister for ten years if he had been willing to have some self-control.

But he preferred to go to lockdown parties, grift money for redecorating and continually lie to his colleagues about trivial things.

He could have been Henry V. He prefered to dick around with Falstaff and Doll Tearsheet. A real shame, but he had to go.

Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Had Boris remained Conservative leader, Reform would not have got 14% at the last GE and Reform would not now be leading the polls.

Indeed Sunak might now be leading the polls as the new LOTO, Rishi made a stupid political move resigning to remove Boris

Very true. Boris would have got minimum 30% and the Tories would have held many of the seats lost to the LDs and we would likely still be in a Duopoly in England

Yes and some of the redwall seats would likely have stayed Conservative too if Boris had led the Tories at the 2024 GE

Certainly the likes of Middlesborough S and Cleveland East, Darlington, Redcar, Rother Valley etc woukd have stayed blue at 3 or 4% higher nationally under a 'remaining Boris' 2024 election

Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Had Boris remained Conservative leader, Reform would not have got 14% at the last GE and Reform would not now be leading the polls.

Indeed Sunak might now be leading the polls as the new LOTO, Rishi made a stupid political move resigning to remove Boris

The expression 'the blind cannot see' comes to mind with your idolatry of Johnson

The obvious question is how would the Conservative Party survive having a Prime Minister suspended from Parliament for obvious lying?

But to be charitable... Johnson was the most electorally successful Conservative leader since Thatcher- the only one to get a thumping majority. Mostly by persuading Farage to walk off the relevant bits of the battlefield in 2019.

Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Had Boris remained Conservative leader, Reform would not have got 14% at the last GE and Reform would not now be leading the polls.

Indeed Sunak might now be leading the polls as the new LOTO, Rishi made a stupid political move resigning to remove Boris

The expression 'the blind cannot see' comes to mind with your idolatry of Johnson

The obvious question is how would the Conservative Party survive having a Prime Minister suspended from Parliament for obvious lying?

But to be charitable... Johnson was the most electorally successful Conservative leader since Thatcher- the only one to get a thumping majority. Mostly by persuading Farage to walk off the relevant bits of the battlefield in 2019.

Hed have called an election if the defenestration hadnt happened 'let the people judge' and run on a Trump style 'they are after me to get to you' basis which would have fired up his fans and the likes of the 30% currently cheering for Nigel etc.
His lowest poll score (not includimg Goodwin at 25%) was 3% above the 2024 return and mostly low 30s even post Pincher

Hed have lost but held 200 to 220 seats or so

Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.

If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.

Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't help

With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.

Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.

Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020

Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.

What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.

Had Boris remained Conservative leader, Reform would not have got 14% at the last GE and Reform would not now be leading the polls.

Indeed Sunak might now be leading the polls as the new LOTO, Rishi made a stupid political move resigning to remove Boris

Very true. Boris would have got minimum 30% and the Tories would have held many of the seats lost to the LDs and we would likely still be in a Duopoly in England

Yes and some of the redwall seats would likely have stayed Conservative too if Boris had led the Tories at the 2024 GE

Certainly the likes of Middlesborough S and Cleveland East, Darlington, Redcar, Rother Valley etc woukd have stayed blue at 3 or 4% higher nationally under a 'remaining Boris' 2024 election

Wouldn’t say that Darlington would have

Rishi only lost it by 5.5%, tories on 34% against 24% nationally.
30% nationally (as in this example) and theyd almost certainly have held it
Obviously a 'what if' and the local result last Thursday says Darlington now is locked in Reform Gain but Boris Tories would imo have held it if Rishi Tories were that close