Best Of

"PollCheck
@poll_checker

Senedd Voting Intention:

Plaid Cymru: 33% (-4.0)
Reform UK: 27% (+4.0)
Labour: 13% (+3.0)
Greens: 12% (-1.0)
Conservative: 7% (-3.0)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (=)
Others: 4% (+2.0)

Via: YouGov
MOE: ±2.1%
Field Work: 9 - 18 March changes w/ 13 January 2026

Seats:

PC 42
Ref 29
Lab 13
Grn 11
Con 1"

https://x.com/poll_checker/status/2036511284397584686

Tories on 1 seat?

Poor Kemi.

The Tories in May are set to be the Japanese during the Battle of Iwo Jima.

I expect the Tories to gain Westminster and Barnet and hold Kensington and Chelsea in May.

Kemi is proving very popular with posh wealthy people, especially posh rich West Londoners and Jews, it is now safe for you to say you are a Tory at one of your posh candlelit dinners and soirees.

However unfortunately for her that is a rather niche market, with rightwingers in most of the rest of the UK preferring Farage to her and leftwingers preferring Labour and the Greens and centrists preferring Labour and the LDs and Scottish and Welsh nats voting SNP and Plaid

I predicted a Plaid Green coalition some time ago and expect that both Scotland and Wales could have independence seeking governments

Labour 13 conservatives 1 lib dems 0 is quite a prediction but not impossible

Plaid have not included seeking independence in their manifesto and have ruled out even pushing the issue in their first term, which is the main reason they are ahead.

The SNP are already in power in Scotland but of course the UK government will refuse indyref2 whatever happens in May

The main reason Plaid are ahead is the utter contempt for labour's decades in power

The point is that if both Scotland and Wales elect independence parties then there is little prospect of any respect for Westminster and tensions between the nations will be the result

If Plaid were pushing independence hard, more of their current voters would be sticking with Labour or going Reform.

The UK government will of course ignore any independence push anyway

No they would not

You need only to look at the history of the SNP in Scotland which is now happening in Wales

I've bought fancy cooking knives that are so sharp I cut myself on first usage, ten minutes ago, and now I'm scared of them

A live test for the "yebbut blunt knives are actually more dangerous" crowd.

That's a thing?

Yup. Clichéd online argument. The theory is that blunt knives are unpredictable. But I suspect that, overall, sharp knives are more dangerous.

All the professional food preparation people disagree.

What is dangerous is the combination of ignorance about method and sharp knives.

Right, but the unstated question is "what's more dangerous for the average person"

Latest stock market manipulation from the grifter administration:



The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: The US has developed a "15-point plan" to end the Iran War and claims that Iran has agreed to many of the key points, per Axios.

Details include:

1. Proposal includes many of the same demands the US made during the last round of nuclear talks in Geneva

2. US envoy Steve Witkoff has told Trump that Iran has agreed on giving up their stockpile of highly enriched uranium

3. The document calls for zero uranium enrichment in Iran

4. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel's objectives

Iran continues to deny that talks are taking place.


https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2036531066832339089

I can believe Iran may well be lying about that. Obviously Trump and co do lie too, but the regime in Tehran has incentive to not admit to talks.

Tehran shorting the market? Be quite funny if they buggered up the insider trading positions of those "in the know"....

The Royal Navy could charter civilian ships to help clear Iranian mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Britain is leading an international coalition drawing up options to reopen the narrow shipping lane. Chartered vessels would act as minehunting “motherships”, deploying drones from their decks to seek out and destroy hidden underwater explosives across the Gulf. Naval chiefs are also considering converting some of the Royal Fleet Auxiliary’s four Bay-class landing ships into potential minehunters.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/24/iran-war-latest-news-israel-trump-us-strait-of-hormuz/

And I was joking about them sending Boaty McBoatyFace.

I’m imagining a grizzled CalMac Master, desperately serving up mac and cheese amid Shaheds and a broken mezzanine deck.

(Wtf happened to our minehunters? I know two people who have served on them in the past)

We now have airmobile crewless minehunters.

https://youtu.be/qyV3yTQUPBQ?si=uSChYhbHjRYo1xe1

If they are not suited for Hormuz then you have to question the point of them.

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
NEW

Cambridge-headquartered tech giant Arm Holdings announces it will manufacture its own AI chips - a significant change after 3 decades of success getting its chip designs in 350 billion devices worldwide - IPhones, cars, data centres etc… partnerships announced with most of the worlds tech giants including OpenAI and Meta. The chips will be specialised for AI use, especially the deployment of “agents”.

CEO Rene Haas tells BBC: "This marks the next phase of Arm’s journey - building on our roots in Cambridge, and the strength of our teams across the UK and around the world…” which puts Arm and the UK at the centre of global AI transformation.

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
This is a major move for a company born out of UK science, Acorn computers, BBC Micro etc… its business model was a model for UK growth in the early 2000s… the manufacturing is as I understand it, going to be done at the only places in the world equipped to do so - TSMC in Taiwan…

https://x.com/faisalislam/status/2036494009812623850

Erm... Taiwan you say? Hmmm...