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Badenoch rules out a deal with Farage and Reform

https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15916521/amp/Kemi-Farage-split-Makerfield-Burnham.html

Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.

Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.

No it’s not.

There’s other options.

Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.

Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct

Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end

I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.

And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.

I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.

If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.

Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!

The other factor playing against Putin, which you won't say so I will, is that there is another reason time is not in his favour.

The riskiest moment for Ukraine was over a year ago when Mr You Hold No Cards entered the Oval Office and pulled support for Ukraine.

Since then Ukraine has not only held the line, they have turned things in their favour so that the war is now being felt in Moscow and St Petersburg, and more Russian fatalities than recruits.

Soon Putin's mate in the Oval Office will be a lame duck.

If Kyiv can keep the current trajectory for 2 more years, and if the Americans next elect an opponent not a friend of Putin, then that could lead to a culmination.

I think its even more remarkable than that. They have survived their betrayal by Trump and the restriction of material from the USA by some additional support from Europe (including us) but mainly by their astonishing innovation and ingenuity.

They were restricted for years because any long range weapons they were supplied (including our storm shadows) came with conditions that they were not to be used on Russian soil. So they built their own. They did not get enough anti-drone and air defences, so they built their own and now they are world leading in the field. They didn't get enough tanks to take on the massed ranks from Russia so they made them irrelevant and frankly suicidal to be in. They have far fewer men and they are increasingly making that irrelevant too as drones fight their battles with barely a human in sight. They have printed their own cards.

They are now clearly winning a war against what was supposed to have been a superpower. The price that they have paid for this and continue to pay is very high but what a people! What a country! What a leader!

Does anyone understand this problem?

"AI risks triggering ‘catastrophic’ phone network blackouts
Ofcom raises alarm over risks linked to use of automation technology for monitoring networks" (£)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/21/ai-risks-triggering-catastrophic-phone-network-failure/

There are two main concerns with AI. One is that it can be used to find bugs in the code that can be exploited by hostile states, terrorists or criminals. Last week, the US Government blocked the export (or any use by foreigners) of Anthropic's latest models on these grounds. Effectively, the US Government is treating these AI models as weapons and regulating them accordingly.

The other concern is about cock-ups rather than conspiracies. If AI is used in routine maintenance of networks and spots a fault, it might take actions to rectify the situation faster than any human could react, and thus keep the network up so no-one notices the problem. The fear is that AI might apply the wrong fix and crash the whole network. You may recall seeing examples from other industries where production databases have been deleted or millions of dollars of trading losses.

The latest Anthropic AI, “Mythos” or “Fable 5”, allegedly managed to crack a whole load of US defence systems within hours, which is what led to the export ban and the company pulling the model from production.

https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/2068605229965234238

Incidentally, the fact that the US Government can block exports of and access to AI models shows how fatuous are British claims to AI leadership. As is our wont with frontier research, British academics are underfunded and British companies sold, including what is now Google Deep Mind. All the AI action is now in America and China.

Yup. A massive opportunity lost with the DeepMind sale, and a chance to cement a Brexit benefit outside the strangulating EU AI regulation.

The US now has most of the West over a barrel, at a time when most of them really don’t like the orange man in the white house.

Peak Trump Denial Syndrome - Sandpit in DENIAL that Trump is far more pro-Putin than pro-Zelenskyy!

Sandpit was talking about AI and the fact the UK sold it's largest specialist for not that much - not sure what that's got to do with Ukraine..

He keeps bangin' on about Trump Derangement Syndrome, when he has Trump DENIAL Syndrome

Badenoch rules out a deal with Farage and Reform

https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15916521/amp/Kemi-Farage-split-Makerfield-Burnham.html

Again she's ruling out a pact, but AFAICS she's not ruling out putting Nigel Farage in power.

Ruling out putting Farage in power would be equivalent to committing to forming a 'coalition of chaos' even if Reform have 300+ MPs. Her position is the only politically sensible one.

No it’s not.

There’s other options.

Such as let Reform run a minority government or have another election.

Kemi telling Tory MPs to abstain in a confidence vote in a hung Parliament is neither making Farage PM nor keeping Labour in office. So her position is correct

How is abstaining in a VoC when everyone else votes against not "making Farage PM?"

As it isn’t voting to make Farage PM anymore than it is voting to make Starmer or Burnham PM

Let's test this - if an opponent tried the same line would you accept the same logic and not criticise them for 'allowing' it?

No. A positive vote for Burnham or Starmer is a vote for a Labour government, a positive vote for Farage is a vote for a Reform government, abstaining is a vote for neither only a Kemi led government

Kemi's in no position to form a government,

She could be in a position to join a coalition but then who with She;s falling straight in to the CDU trap.

No she isn’t, the CDU have gone into coalition with the SPD. Kemi has ruled out a deal with Labour or Reform

Then she's just opting to be the opposition, Or is she going to merge with the LDs ?

The Tories are in an impossible situation - a large section of their never Labour vote has gone to Reform - it's not exactly easy to get it back.

Worse they don't want to lose any chance of getting some never Reform votes so they have to rule out supporting Reform.

It leaves Kemi and the Tory party a very fine line that they have to navigate in the hope / until the political landscape changes to their favour..

I think the bigger problem for the Tories is trying to recover some credibility. They have been behind some of the worst policy decisions this country has seen. They struggle to take HMG to task as it quite often is just continuing what they started,

The Tory USP which more than any other factor explains why they usually win UK general elections is they are trusted with the £££ more than Labour are. Liz Truss dropped that most precious aspect of the brand on the floor, stamped on it, crushed it to dust and buried the ashes deep underground in a heavily locked casket. Kemi has to excavate and retrieve it in order to win again. I've made it sound impossible but it isn't. Just start the dig and keep at it.

Betrayal is part of politics ! Most politicians are backstabbing ungrateful bxstards!

I do though have some sympathy for Starmer because polling wise Labour aren’t miles behind Reform and the party has done some good things .

They have had a relentless almost daily attacks from the media , I don’t think I’ve seen such a hostile press and even the Guardian was laying the boot in .

And who exactly would have been leader if Starmer hadn’t have put his name forward . Even with the Tories imploding there still needed to be an alternative that wouldn’t frighten the horses .

Presumably Lisa Nandy, who would have been even more timorous about Europe and has achieved SFA at whatever the Ministry of Fun is called these days.

Does anyone understand this problem?

"AI risks triggering ‘catastrophic’ phone network blackouts
Ofcom raises alarm over risks linked to use of automation technology for monitoring networks" (£)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/21/ai-risks-triggering-catastrophic-phone-network-failure/

There are two main concerns with AI. One is that it can be used to find bugs in the code that can be exploited by hostile states, terrorists or criminals. Last week, the US Government blocked the export (or any use by foreigners) of Anthropic's latest models on these grounds. Effectively, the US Government is treating these AI models as weapons and regulating them accordingly.

The other concern is about cock-ups rather than conspiracies. If AI is used in routine maintenance of networks and spots a fault, it might take actions to rectify the situation faster than any human could react, and thus keep the network up so no-one notices the problem. The fear is that AI might apply the wrong fix and crash the whole network. You may recall seeing examples from other industries where production databases have been deleted or millions of dollars of trading losses.

The latest Anthropic AI, “Mythos” or “Fable 5”, allegedly managed to crack a whole load of US defence systems within hours, which is what led to the export ban and the company pulling the model from production.

https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/2068605229965234238

Incidentally, the fact that the US Government can block exports of and access to AI models shows how fatuous are British claims to AI leadership. As is our wont with frontier research, British academics are underfunded and British companies sold, including what is now Google Deep Mind. All the AI action is now in America and China.

Yup. A massive opportunity lost with the DeepMind sale, and a chance to cement a Brexit benefit outside the strangulating EU AI regulation.

The US now has most of the West over a barrel, at a time when most of them really don’t like the orange man in the white house.

Peak Trump Denial Syndrome - Sandpit in DENIAL that Trump is far more pro-Putin than pro-Zelenskyy!

Sandpit was talking about AI and the fact the UK sold it's largest specialist for not that much - not sure what that's got to do with Ukraine..

Lol how many times have we heard from one person here the war in Ukraine was about to end

I disagree with @Sandpit on many things but I can't criticise his hopeful reports on the the Ukraine war. We all have a natural tendency to lap up and pass on reports that match our hope - I certainly do.

And he's surely not wrong that things look bleak for Russia, which has been led into a terrible disaster with Putin's adventure? Imminent surrender of Crimea? Maybe not, but their hold is beginning to look more tenuous.

I’m generally a positive and hopeful guy, willing that the best of humanity prevails.

If you can’t celebrate Moscow being on fire this week, Crimea being totally isolated, and Ukranian drones running up and down the logistics corridor into the Donbass, then when can you smile? Hell, they sent a Flamingo over 2,000km last night, over the Urals and into a refinery in Siberia.

Oh, and I have a trip to Ukraine booked for August. War being over by then would be awesome, but I think that’s too optimistic even for me!

Good article on Crimea and the occupied territories of Ukraine.

https://x.com/mbohnert/status/2068643473062805672

TL:DR the Russians are Donald Ducked, they no longer control the major supply routes to the occupied territories, and Crimea is now an island bar the Kerch Bridge which is closed to heavy traffic. It could all unravel very quickly from here.

Let’s hope so!

I think that overstates things a bit. Russia has temporary bridges up into northern Crimea to replace those damaged, and the bridges there are only damaged, not destroyed entirely.

I also think it's a bit negative on Ukrainian offensive capability. The Ukrainians have had three years to think about how to advance through minefields while under drone attack - it's not impossible they will have some innovations in that area.

And the more that Russian logistics are damaged the less offensive capability is required to overcome defences. A defensive line cannot be held without deliveries of ammunition.

It’s an optimistic take, sure, but the logistics breakdown does appear to be real.

Ukranian drones have fire control on the main roads through occupied Donbass, and have been taking out military and fuel supply vehicles seemingly at will for a couple of weeks now.

May was apparently the first month in more than 2 years where Ukraine won back more territory than it lost. The balance of power has changed radically in the last few months and not in Russia's favour. I think a collapse of their control of Crimea is looking inevitable. They simply cannot supply their units or even the domestic population there. The political consequences of such a development would surely be fatal for Putin.