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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Notably and unusually the turnout in the byelection was several percentage points higher than the last GE.When the rise in Labour vote share was lower than the fall in Green and LibDem, I’m not sure it is so obvious how Conservatives voted. Those Restore votes had to come from somewhere….That's a thumping defeat for the populist right. Well played Andy Burnham and the voters of Makerfield. A new dawn has broken, has it not. No, it hasn't, but it feels like a hugely significant moment.Burnham winning is exactly the result I wanted because he will almost certainly remove Starmer but also Farage and Lowe failing is an added bonus
The conservatives voted tactically and it looks as if more backed Burnham than Reform
I think that the very efficient Labour vote and Ming Vase strategy of Labour in the GE failed to get out the Labour vote in places like Makerfield, partly because of its lack of ambition and partly because a walkover was expected.
GOTV is going to be key at the next GE and clear choices for the tactical voter to beat Reform. In most seats that will be Labour.
Foxy
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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Ha - it's the way you tell them!😂Well, no pressure Andy. Don’t fuck it upMy understanding is that he's content to stay a backbench MP, until SKS calls him up for a minor mininsterial role.
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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Good morning, everyone.
I forget who tipped it alas, but thanks to whoever mentioned the Conservatives at 3 or so for Aberdeen South
I forget who tipped it alas, but thanks to whoever mentioned the Conservatives at 3 or so for Aberdeen South
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Laura Kuenssberg is very good at what theatre folk called "vamping" - generating words indefinitely to fill an empty space. It's an essential part of live television presentation. But it is annoying if nothing happens.
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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
PMs spend hardly any time in their own constituencies. But voters don't usually seem to mind. They just like being able think of their MP as doing the top job.
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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Why didn’t he run in 2024? I can’t see what’s changed in two years for him.The other thing about Burnham is that he was happy to sit out 2024 and the hard work to actually get Labour into government. Now he gets to ride in.But doesn't that betray a perhaps subconscious belief that the only things that really matter happen in London?
That is the right thing to do but it gets my back up.
Whereas he's helped create an alternative nexus that elsewhere is actually important. And can be better and more successful?
Citizens of Somewhere and Levelling Up not just as slogans to win elections but actually as policies?
Like I said, I’m not against him running now for the sake of the country but I do think there’s something in not wanting to do the hard bit.
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
He has a popularity I don’t understand but I totally acknowledge he has true believers in a way others don’t.Thanks. This is interesting. We don't actually have a NW poster who doesn't like him. Even those who disagree with his politics.He strikes me as completely empty and opportunistic and willing to do and say basically anything. He was an average minister and did terribly in two leadership contests (2015 being a particular highlight).Why don't you like him out of interest?Always felt weird to me. I don’t like the man but I can’t deny he’s popular on a scale no Labour person has been for a very long time. Hence why he’s clearly their best choice.It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.Yes. A succession of folk with no ties to GM kept sternly informing people that it was not true.
Even famous non-Labour types like cookie and Barty were basically told they were hallucinating.
He seems the very definition of a likeable bloke. But maybe that's a NW thing.
I never could get the Boris thing.
I don’t care where the PM is from. It’s never bothered me.
I don’t hate him. I just don’t warm to him. He seems like Sir Keir but more charismatic.
He's proudly, eloquently and unashamedly from, and of, his place.
Maybe we've had too many from the same place?
But as I’ve said, I’ve never been bothered where the PM is from.
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
The other thing about Burnham is that he was happy to sit out 2024 and the hard work to actually get Labour into government. Now he gets to ride in.
That is the right thing to do but it gets my back up.
That is the right thing to do but it gets my back up.
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
It's weird, Twitter kept assuring me Andy Bunrham wasn't even that popular, despite the fact I live in Manchester where he is really popular.He seemed certain to win as soon as the thing was called. Reform also chose a terrible candidate. Again.
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
My bets were: Labour over 50%, and Reform win.
I thought everyone else would get squeezed to shit, and that the total of the two would be 92-95%... Restore outperformed, but my bets were still a winner.
I thought everyone else would get squeezed to shit, and that the total of the two would be 92-95%... Restore outperformed, but my bets were still a winner.
rcs1000
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