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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
When did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...Hartlepool, 2021.
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Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
Paid marking for one of the exam boards - my students have left for the academic year, and my employer encourages us to mark for the boards.Are you doing paid marking or just school marking?Thankfully I'm not teaching tomorrow, so I'll be hiding in my office with a vat of coffee, whilst marking exams.I know, I am also watching Scotland being competitive in the women's T20 world cup right now.This whole World Cup in which Scotland are competitive, plus by elections, and A level marking is very inconvenient for me. When will Burnham condemn?My plan is early night tonight as tomorrow has the Scotland match which kicks off at 11pm.It is tempting just to stay up and watch football, not gonna lie.Are we expecting about 4am declarations for Makerfield? Trying to time my power nap and fit in some exam marking.The Mexico vs South Korea match at 0200 sounds quite competitive if you are planning an all-nighter.
Presumably the Scottish seats will be a similar time.
I cancelled all my meetings for tomorrow, I told the CEO, COO, and CFO, soz the meeting has to take place on Monday.
During the 2024 election, I was off on the Friday to visit friends in Durham. I stayed up right through to Liz Truss getting ousted, had a refreshing nap then drove up the A1 with an apparently misplaced sense of optimism.
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Arbroath & Broughton Ferry turnout
Electorate 75,985
Verified papers 23,827
Turnout 31.36%
Electorate 75,985
Verified papers 23,827
Turnout 31.36%
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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Makerfield turnout
Electorate: 77,462
Total votes: 45,510
Turnout: 58.75%
Electorate: 77,462
Total votes: 45,510
Turnout: 58.75%
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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Morning, allCould be 4am if it isn't close.
Just got up after a quick nap
Any word on what time the result will be declared?
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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Really?It would be a shock if Tories didn't winWhen did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...Hartlepool in 2021.
Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone
Labour deeply unpopular everywhere
Reform not that strong further north
Not LD or Green territory.
Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen
Badenoch been 3 times.
If SNP held would be a big shock
Badenoch has been struggling in the polls as well.
Aberdeen South contains the harbour and central wards which are kinder to the Greens, they polled very strongly on the list there last month. A Labour collapse wouldn't automatically assume their vote would go Tory. Lib Dems held Aberdeen South at Holyrood when their leader was Nicol Stephen. Reform are not bad in Aberdeenshire, they nearly took Banff and Buchan coast 6 weeks ago, missing out by 360 odd votes.
Its largely a city seat, and the Tories haven't been doing well in urban areas for the past few years.
All that being said, SNP are struggling outside the central belt, they are facing more opposition from Lib Dems and Tories in rural areas.
They would be hoping for a world cup bounce but John Swinney couldnt have had a worse start to his return to Holyrood.
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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
"Tom GordonIf this is true (still a big if) it would seem a collapse or part collapse in the Reform vote has headed to the Tories, along with enough of a chunk of Labour votes from tactical unionists.
@DMScotPol
Conservatives increasingly confident in Aberdeen South byelection after tactical surge in their favour.
Some SNP sources privately conceding they've lost"
https://x.com/DMScotPol/status/2067746023473115292
Remember, both Lab and Con got over 11,000 votes in the 2024 GE in Aberdeen South, there was a confused unionist tactical voting picture.
Its clearer the Tories would be the main challenger this time.
Would be a big shot in the arm if Kemi won this
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Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
Does Barnier speak for the EU? I thought he had retired from there.We’re Rejoining!That is interesting because while there is no groundswell to rejoin the EU, there does seem to be a consensus that Brexit was a mistake or at best a damp squib. While no-one wants to go through the whole Brexit sturm und drang again, they might respond to an EU offer of a time machine or big red reset button that will magically take us back to where we were, and perhaps that has occurred to Barnier too.
It’s inevitable.
We hold all the cards.
UK could keep special pre-Brexit terms if it rejoined EU, Michel Barnier says
Exclusive: Former chief Brexit negotiator says staying out of euro and Schengen area would be ‘perfectly possible’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/uk-could-keep-special-pre-brexit-terms-if-it-rejoined-eu-michel-barnier-says
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
It'll be a shock to punters who had the SNP as favourites until about 10pm.It would be a shock if Tories didn't winWhen did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...Hartlepool in 2021.
Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone
Labour deeply unpopular everywhere
Reform not that strong further north
Not LD or Green territory.
Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen
Badenoch been 3 times.
If SNP held would be a big shock
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