Best Of
Re: The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
Which polls?Polls show Labour and LD voters prefer Cleverly over Kemi and without their tactical votes in Tory held seats more Tory seats will be lost to ReformWell isn't that the point? If even Big G prefers Kemi over Cleverly, it isn't clear exactly who would be enthused by Cleverly.You ARE a One Nation conservativeOne Nation conservatives are not going to win heartsWhat utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anywayAnd that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agendaIs Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policiesThe sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Re: The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
Well isn't that the point? If even Big G prefers Kemi over Cleverly, it isn't clear exactly who would be enthused by Cleverly.You ARE a One Nation conservativeOne Nation conservatives are not going to win heartsWhat utter rubbish, Reform lead the polls, if I was really a Faragist I would already have defected to Reform! Cleverly also offers a more moderate One Nation style agenda than Kemi's more Farage adjacent policies anywayAnd that is why you are a de facto Faragist hiding behind a pro Cleverly agendaIs Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policiesThe sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Cookie
1
Re: The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
She needs to take stock after May - what worked and where and can that be expanded into more areas. And where and why was the deficit in performance. The polling and the narrative will take the usual adjustment from May 8 so move from then if needed..She needs to build a team that agrees with her. Hardline on Woke issues, but with more practical economicsWhat is the centre ground and who offers it ?I do think they have an opportunity (as someone observed upthread they are happier and more united sans Jenrick and Braverman), but they need a new leader. They're not going to reoccupy the centre ground as Reform lite.The Tories are polling significantly below their worst GE result in 2 centuries, mid term against a deeply unpopular government.All because Johnson and Truss ratnered the brandNot really true, even when Boris resigned the Tories were polling 27-35% ie higher than they got at the 2024 general election under Rishi.The Tories are tanking because they were shite. Liz Truss does indeed have very little to do with that.Liz Truss has been on quite a journey! If anyone wonders why the Tories are tanking look no further! The News Agents take you on a trip to tthe darkest recesses of Liz Truss's imagination and it's not a pretty sight.....Liz Truss has nothing to do with the Tories.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3Y_ozT_p3g
When Truss resigned the Tories were polling 19-23% in the polls in the week leading up to her resignation, albeit a bit higher with Omnisis and Techne.
So Rishi actually slightly increased the Tories average voteshare to 24% in 2024 relative to Truss but then under Kemi the Tories vote has gone back down to Truss levels and in some polls even lower
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
The only chink of light is Kemi is far more popular than the party and has 3 years to change that
Kemi has to balance the worst aspects of Reform with an agenda that promotes business, helps the young, addresses the boats, controls immigration and above all invests in defence
Her policies to date are a good start in all these areas, and she leads on the economy which is essential for any prospective government
She has her faults and critics, but her mps and membership are supportive of her and recognise this is a 3 year project
She could promote Katie Lam to shadow Home Secretary, to start with
Re: The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
Matt Goodwin is like a politician with none of the ability.
Doesn’t answer a question and shouts your head off.
Doesn’t answer a question and shouts your head off.
Re: The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
It is clever politics when Kemi declared the conservatives would vote for Mahmood immigration bill to ensure it passed, against her own backbenchers fury...hence the modifier "-adjacent". We keep forgetting that it's extraordinary that a *Labour* Home Secretary is proposing voluntary repatriation as a policy, a policy that I thought died with Powell.Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policiesThe sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Re: The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
https://x.com/i/status/2037831163402657832The geography is fascinating. So many patterns there.
Josh Housdens latest Nowcast. Reform dip far enough short to need support, 5 parties all within 40 seats of each other. LD official opposition from a distant fifth place. FPTP Democracy rules baby
The most obvious are the Lib Dem / Reform Wessex vs Danelaw divide and the more explicable SNP colours of Scotland, but we also have the way Plaid is walled in west of the Cambrians and the funny Tory blue wall along the borderline of the Lib Dem and Reform polities. Like a sort of transitional climate zone.
MelonB
2
Re: The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
...hence the modifier "-adjacent". We keep forgetting that it's extraordinary that a *Labour* Home Secretary is proposing voluntary repatriation as a policy, a policy that I thought died with Powell.Is Starmer proposing withdrawal from the ECHR? Deportation of those with settled residence status? Banning the Burka? Banning Muslim prayers in public? Ending the 2 child benefit cap only for those in work? Abolishing inheritance tax? Bringing back more grammar schools via free schools? Increasing oil production? Scrapping EDI schemes? Scrapping net zero? Scrapping completely the family farm and family business tax not just raising the threshold for it? Not that I have noticed yet Farage has proposed all of those policiesThe sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
viewcode
1
Re: The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
It's amazing how Mark hangs on to his vestigial Toryism when his main aim in life seems to be gaining the approbation of Emma Thomson and Steven Fry. There's no point to it. You will lose your integrity and they will still despise your politics.It’s amazing how Liz Truss still lives rent free in so many people’s heads.The Tories are tanking because they were shite. Liz Truss does indeed have very little to do with that.Liz Truss has been on quite a journey! If anyone wonders why the Tories are tanking look no further! The News Agents take you on a trip to tthe darkest recesses of Liz Truss's imagination and it's not a pretty sight.....Liz Truss has nothing to do with the Tories.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3Y_ozT_p3g
Re: The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
Here in Birmingham, I'd say the main factors driving the exodus are the bin strike, the bankrupt council and dissatisfaction with Labour's policy on Israel/Gaza.The sense of entitlement from Labour is extreme.I see that the far-left takeover of the (no longer) Green Party means that they are now infested with antisemites.Since the pitiful 'Greens are anti NATO' tactic has proved entirely fruitless, obviously the media is now going full on Maoist bicycle on the road to Auschwitz. Possibly won't work as well as it did with Jezza because as far as I know the Greens don't have an active section of the party plotting to bring down Zack.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
Re: The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
Machine learning algorithms generally learn within very tight parameters. They're not learning like a child does. So in most cases it is easy to know what it does once it's started learning. LLMs, as discussed above, are somewhat more complicated, but we still understand how they work and what they might do.This will get the copyright lawyers excited.When you have a machine that learns, how can you know what it does once it's started learning?
Every book you have ever read. Every novel that has ever been published. It is sitting inside ChatGPT right now.
Word for word. Up to 90% of it. And OpenAI told a judge that was impossible.
Researchers at Stony Brook University and Columbia Law School just proved it.
They fine tuned GPT-4o, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and DeepSeek V3.1 on a simple task: expand a plot summary into full text. A normal use case. The kind of thing a writing assistant is built for. No hacking. No jailbreaking. No tricks.
The models started reciting copyrighted books from memory.
Not paraphrasing. Not summarizing. Entire pages reproduced verbatim. Single unbroken spans exceeding 460 words. Up to 85 to 90% of entire copyrighted novels. Word for word.
Then it got worse.
The researchers fine tuned the models on the works of only one author. Haruki Murakami. Just his novels. Nothing else.
It unlocked verbatim recall of books from over 30 completely unrelated authors.
One author's books opened the vault to everyone else's. The memorization was already inside the model the whole time. The fine tuning just removed the lock. Your book might be in there right now. You would never know it unless someone looked.
Every safety measure the companies rely on failed. RLHF failed. System prompts failed. Output filters failed. The exact protections these companies cite in courtroom defenses did not stop a single page from being extracted.
Then the researchers compared the three models. GPT-4o. Gemini. DeepSeek. Three different companies. Three different countries. They all memorized the same books in the same regions. The correlation was 0.90 or higher.
That means they all trained on the same stolen data. The paper names the sources directly: LibGen and Books3. Over 190,000 copyrighted books obtained from pirated websites.
Right now, authors and publishers have dozens of active lawsuits against OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta. These companies have argued in court that their models learn patterns. Not copies. That no book is stored inside the weights.
This paper says that is a lie. The books are still inside. And researchers just pulled them out.
https://x.com/heynavtoor/status/2037638554374099409
