Best Of
Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Best deal you’ll see all year.That's a bit flash for the lanes of Devon...
Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
I think the safe thing to do is to avert one’s eyes from the settler movement and pretend you haven’t noticed it. Even noticing can be antisemitic nowadays.It's definitely anti-semitic to attack Jews who oppose the policies of the Israeli govt because they are Jews people opposed to the policies of the Israeli govt.I'm still unclear as to whether it's antisemitic to conflate all Jews with the state of Israel, or antisemitic to draw attention to Jews who are citizens of other countries strongly identifying with the state of Israel. All very confusing.If someone specifically boycotts Israeli goods but not goods from any other country it would suggest they are anti-semitic.It isn't anti-semitic to oppose the Israeli government or boycott Israeli goods.Really?A Green Party ad suggests why they are doing well in the polls.Well, not zero. The video specifically opposes the racism and division that so much of our politics is about. It speaks for our common humanity.
Zero* policy, but very well done emotional appeal.
https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/2037197492631036043
*Not net zero; just zero.
@NickPalmer has observed in the past that people choose their vote much more via vibe than by totting up a balance sheet of policies and cooly comparing to other parties.
They ask themselves "is this a party that matches my values? Is this a party that gets my issues and will speak for me?"
That is how Polanski is doing so well. The message is a very positive one, of hope, and one unafraid to speak for pluralism and modern Britain. This is a unique approach in current politics.
At the Spring Conference the Greens are voting on a motion opposing the government's proposals to fight racism and anti-semitism in the NHS. Who's that positive and hopeful for? Racists and anti-semites presumably. It's certainly representative of a very unpleasant aspect of modern Britain - the way anti-semitism has become embedded in once respectable organisations and professions.
Polanski has also refused to condemn members of the public going from door to door canvassing for a boycott of Israel and its goods, and noting down those who disagree. He did not understand why this might seem frightening and sinister to Jewish people. And no this is not like normal political canvassing.
Nor has he condemned his deputy, Mothin Ali, who attacked a Jewish university chaplain, forcing him to go into hiding and whose wife received rape threats. Ali recently attended a demonstration protesting against attacks on the Iranian regime which has slaughtered tens of thousands of its citizens, is executing children as young as 14, rapes women prisoners as a matter of course and did this so violently to two nurses who helped those wounded by the regime that they lost part of their intestines and, in one case, their uterus.
Perhaps this is what some have called the Green Party’s “fresh new ideas”. To this jaded eye, they rather resemble some older, very sour ideas, whose impact on ordinary people is well-described in Sally Carson’s novel “Crooked Cross”, written in the 1930’s after her time in Germany. She wrote that as a warning, not a manual to be followed.
As you should know. You recommended it.
Which renders most supporters of the current Israeli govt anti-semitic.
The rest needs a bit more clarification.
We could start with some non-edge cases...
1) Settlers who attack and murder Palestinians and Bedouins because they want their land (with the excuse that their God granted it to them). Is there unanimity that it's OK to criticise them without being classed anti-semitic?
Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Some people don't have attachment to parties.I have heard of people 'crossing the floor' but to do it as often and as erratically as Rochdale is quite something! Maybe it's a car thing?Rochdale is a radical pragmatist, and I share something of that impulse.I heard your political journey has moved on apace and you're now a Tory! When did this happen and what was it that attracted you to the the subtle charms of Kemi?I need to send food samples UK to NL. Parcel Farce would send it to the moon by accident. DHL won't do food to EU because paperwork. USP will - but its faff - for £££Brexit created barriers to trade. There, that's your simple explanation of how x has resulted in y.It's always funny reading remoaner arguments.Yep. Trade is good, [cliche] which is why Brexit is and remains a ball and chain around our ankle [hackneyed metaphor] . We are the nation that sanctiond ourselves [hackneyed metaphor], then complain about the lack of trade.We need to invest and trade our way out of the mess. So much of the high cost low value nature of so many sectors is because of partisan bickering moving the goalposts. This happens because we have completely lost our way as to who we are and where we want to go.The growth of both Reform and the Greens show that people have simply lost all faith in the mainstream parties. They are simply not delivering and haven't for a long time. People are exasperated and lashing out. That reluctance to make "tough" decisions that @Taz mentioned at the end of the previous thread has caused something approaching a disaster, a State that works for those employed by it and for very few others.I think there is still a way forward for something I can only really term “radical centrism” and indeed I think it’s the only thing that can really get us out of our current predicament.
Both Labour and the Tories (the Lib Dems are a lost cause) need to wake up and start to deal with reality or reality will finish with them.
I don’t think a majority of the electorate really want the divisive rhetoric of Reform or the Greens but they do want things to be done differently to how they have been - and both parties promise that. They’ve been let down so much by the two main parties that they are looking for an alternative.
What we really need is someone who is unafraid of making big, bold, reforming decisions but who does not subscribe to the divisive viewpoints. I think the public will broadly accept reform of institutions like the NHS, planning and regulatory system, welfare state, asylum and immigration system, relationship with Europe, defence spending etc etc so long as they feel that the person behind it has a bold vision and a plan to make things better - on the centre right or centre left. Of course, such figures are sadly lacking from our politics at the moment. But it’s the emergence of figures like these that are what western economies really need in the next decade.
More trade does not mean selling off everything. We need to get back to actually having British industrial giants capable of building the stuff we need. Start with steel, then car, train and shipbuilding, electronics, consumer goods etc. Harnessing both whats left of the north sea fossils and the growing wind & solar capacity. With turbines built here.
It means that we need to actual educate, train and equip my kids generation to go out and compete with the world. All we equip them with today is debt that is almost impossible to repay. And don't get me started on the NHS bonfire where we can't propose to axe the endless layers of administrators because aren't our nurses marvellous? Not that we train nurses anymore.
The challenge is "where do we get the money". To which my answer remains CAPITALISM. Borrow. Invest. ROI. Today we borrow and throw it on the bonfire. Throw a little less into the flames and buy a fire hose. An increase in cost briefly to greatly decrease it longer term.
It just needs vision, to accept that we're in a mess and a change is needed. I cited 3 great reforms - Liberal, Labour, Tory. We need a 4th, and it won't be from those daft fukers in Reform or the Islamo-Commies in Green... Trade is the solution to the gulf mess, to the American mess, to the refugee mess.
Trade. Free fucking trade. Make stuff. Sell stuff. The Rest Will Flow.
There's never any figures, there's not even a simple explanation of how x has resulted in y. Just a heap of meaningless metaphors and cliches loosely held together by wounded spite. They cannot make a proper argument because there isn't one.
It hasn't led me to consider voting Tory for decades, and I can't see it next time round either.
It's not as though any of our parties are particularly consistent on policy, or particularly coherent.
Nigelb
2
Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
AUKUS had nothing to do with military capabilty and any attempt to view it refracted through that prism is doomed and irrelevant.From the POV of western capacity, they'd be better off joining a S Korean programme to build nuclear subs.They could well end up back there, particularly now the Dutch and Greek navies are buying the design. A lot of the risk and development will have been paid for by them.Should have stuck with the French.Australia are going to get screwed. They aren't going to get any Virginias and also aren't going to get their money back. LMAO.
Rather scathing report on our submarine production from an Australian perspective. Looks like they are at the back of the queue despite all the hype over AUKUS.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/the-weakest-link-australias-submarine-hopes-depend-on-the-uk-but-britannia-no-longer-rules-the-waves?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
They aren't going to see an SSN-AUKUS this side of 2040 and recent premature withdrawal of Anson from HMAS Stirling has shown the worth of British security guarantees.
The nuclear waste problem remains politically insoluable for Australia and it could be that which finally fells AUKUS. The logical place for it is Western Australia but the state government there will not entertain it. That issue has been deadlocked for three years.
The Koreans have already been lobbying the US for approval; Australia's added voice would probably get the go ahead.
It was a purely political construct for political aims so it should be no surprise that little military capacity has yet or probably will ever emerge from it. It served its political purpose for the three main actors at the time:
ScoMo: vengeance project on Turnbull and his legacy
Johnson: #globalbritain
Biden: is it Tuesday again?
The one concrete thing that has been achieved is to make future British SSNs look a lot more like American ones (VLS, General Dynamics Combat Control System) and more dependent on American vendors. Whether that is a net positive or not is another debate.
Dura_Ace
1
Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Its the ultimate extension of:Deputy AG Todd Blanche: Why is there objection to sending ICE officers to polling places?This is a remarkably clear statement from Blanche that Trump's MAGA is a fascist enterprise.
https://x.com/HQNewsNow/status/2037216916536729645
18 U.S. Code § 592
Whoever, being an officer of the Army or Navy, or other person in the civil, military, or naval service of the United States, orders, brings, keeps, or has under his authority or control any troops or armed men at any place where a general or special election is held, unless such force be necessary to repel armed enemies of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than five years, or both; and be disqualified from holding any office of honor, profit, or trust under the United States.
ICE would seem to fall under that statute.
Logically incoherent too, of course.
Blanche: When it comes to the FBI… Director Patel has cleaned house there too. There is not a single man or woman with a gun, federal agent, still in that organization that had anything to do with the prosecution of President Trump.
President Trump for the first time in modern history has said I am the president and if you work in the executive branch, you work for me. And guess what? We can all read the constitution. He's right. And unfortunately, past administrations, Republican included, have just resigned themselves to putting up with partisan actors within the DOJ. We do not.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2037219967779955144
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoils_system
Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
The EU created barriers to tade as well. Why are some barriers to trade bad and others good?Brexit created barriers to trade. There, that's your simple explanation of how x has resulted in y.It's always funny reading remoaner arguments.Yep. Trade is good, [cliche] which is why Brexit is and remains a ball and chain around our ankle [hackneyed metaphor] . We are the nation that sanctiond ourselves [hackneyed metaphor], then complain about the lack of trade.We need to invest and trade our way out of the mess. So much of the high cost low value nature of so many sectors is because of partisan bickering moving the goalposts. This happens because we have completely lost our way as to who we are and where we want to go.The growth of both Reform and the Greens show that people have simply lost all faith in the mainstream parties. They are simply not delivering and haven't for a long time. People are exasperated and lashing out. That reluctance to make "tough" decisions that @Taz mentioned at the end of the previous thread has caused something approaching a disaster, a State that works for those employed by it and for very few others.I think there is still a way forward for something I can only really term “radical centrism” and indeed I think it’s the only thing that can really get us out of our current predicament.
Both Labour and the Tories (the Lib Dems are a lost cause) need to wake up and start to deal with reality or reality will finish with them.
I don’t think a majority of the electorate really want the divisive rhetoric of Reform or the Greens but they do want things to be done differently to how they have been - and both parties promise that. They’ve been let down so much by the two main parties that they are looking for an alternative.
What we really need is someone who is unafraid of making big, bold, reforming decisions but who does not subscribe to the divisive viewpoints. I think the public will broadly accept reform of institutions like the NHS, planning and regulatory system, welfare state, asylum and immigration system, relationship with Europe, defence spending etc etc so long as they feel that the person behind it has a bold vision and a plan to make things better - on the centre right or centre left. Of course, such figures are sadly lacking from our politics at the moment. But it’s the emergence of figures like these that are what western economies really need in the next decade.
More trade does not mean selling off everything. We need to get back to actually having British industrial giants capable of building the stuff we need. Start with steel, then car, train and shipbuilding, electronics, consumer goods etc. Harnessing both whats left of the north sea fossils and the growing wind & solar capacity. With turbines built here.
It means that we need to actual educate, train and equip my kids generation to go out and compete with the world. All we equip them with today is debt that is almost impossible to repay. And don't get me started on the NHS bonfire where we can't propose to axe the endless layers of administrators because aren't our nurses marvellous? Not that we train nurses anymore.
The challenge is "where do we get the money". To which my answer remains CAPITALISM. Borrow. Invest. ROI. Today we borrow and throw it on the bonfire. Throw a little less into the flames and buy a fire hose. An increase in cost briefly to greatly decrease it longer term.
It just needs vision, to accept that we're in a mess and a change is needed. I cited 3 great reforms - Liberal, Labour, Tory. We need a 4th, and it won't be from those daft fukers in Reform or the Islamo-Commies in Green... Trade is the solution to the gulf mess, to the American mess, to the refugee mess.
Trade. Free fucking trade. Make stuff. Sell stuff. The Rest Will Flow.
There's never any figures, there's not even a simple explanation of how x has resulted in y. Just a heap of meaningless metaphors and cliches loosely held together by wounded spite. They cannot make a proper argument because there isn't one.
Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
If you think the used book economy has dissapeared you are clearly looking in the wrong place.FPTI've got hundreds of books I am slowly throwing away. The local tip used to handle second-hand books but now asks only that they are chucked in the same skip as cardboard. The used book economy has disappeared since the days of readers using jumble sales (ask your gran) and charity shops as libraries: buying, reading, then donating back. I did once manage to offload some old computer books to a PBer but now it is back to the tip once the weather clears up.To all the folk with hundreds of books you will never read again:Nope. Books far more than just something to read and discard. You have no soul!
Sell them, donate them to a charity shop, leave them on the bus. Just let them be read again. It's what they are for.
Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Best deal you’ll see all year.


Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Sure! But the lender is making some exciting assumptions on our outgoings. They assume we own and pay for 2 cars - but we have a company car run through the business. They assume I am paying for pension and life insurance - again that's all through the business. That we have multiple holidays a year. Nope. That we eat out lots. Nope. Can we challenge any of their assumptions? Nope.That will be the FCA rules on affordability. The rules have become tighter but it is a reflection of how impecunious we all are without really noticing it.Health cover is on my list of stuff to do. As is completing paperwork on the new mortgage deal.Nudge to save the NHSIn much more important news Civilisation, otherwise known as Wendys has arrived at the Dundee frontier. They apparently have special treats like loaded baconator fries and the double baconator burger, the latter being 2 square burger patties, cheese slices and loads of bacon (sounds like a heart attack on a plate to me). People also apparently partake of something called a vanilla Frosty and, incredibly, despite this being a dessert, dip their chips in it.Only two politicians have actually taken this seriously over the last decade, and it’s telling that both were Conservative Chancellors: Osborne with the sugar tax and Sunak with the ban on smoking.
On the plus side we may see the cost of pensions falling sharply but the short term consequences for the NHS are alarming. Do people really eat this stuff?
When the company I worked for starting using the Vitality private health insurance product from Prudential, even the most hardcore I-Never-Exercise types were walking the dog until the poor things feet were sore. For those who haven't encountered it - in addition to cut prices for gym and gym gear, it gives you rewards for doing exercise*, losing weight, having a full health check etc. Stuff like free cinema tickets.
Apparently, the cost of the scheme was more than offset by the reduction in claims on the private health insurance.
*As measure by Garmin/Apple Watch etc. Which you had purchased cheap through the scheme.
I won't name my bank. We've had a mortgage with them for 20 years across several houses. This time we want to pull some equity to pay for improvements. All agreed on paper. Then we go through with their advisor. Who starts setting aside income as not income. OK, its income as far as HMRC are concerned, but not with them.
Plan was decrease mortgage term and take equity. Now they tell me they must increase our term as "we can't afford it". New payment is hundreds less than current payment which we pay without issue. Hmmm. And then after a few days another email. I have included figures which are not income which misled them. Term increased again.
Erm, I've quoted the data from my tax return. And sent you the returns and calculations. How have I misled you? Anyway, he's calling this afternoon to finalise the paperwork. Term now 3 years longer than we want, and every time they increase it we just increase the overpayment (we can pay almost DOUBLE inside the early repayment cap, so that's no problem).
It's a farce. We can't repay our existing mortgage apparently because we can't afford it despite repaying. It's because we own our own businesses and take out what we need. So personal income is low even though business income is not. Yet more ways that Britain is anti-business.
Why are even the Tories anti-business these days? Its crackers.
So they deduct income which they declare as not income. And then declare we spend money on things we don't. And decide we can't afford the new mortgage which is less than the one we already pay without issue.
If thats the FCA then that's another thing that needs dramatic reform...
Re: Punters still have more faith in Zack Polanski than Kemi Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
A few days ago we were talking about Plug-In Solar PV.
Here is a thorough briefing for anyone interested:
https://solarenergyconcepts.co.uk/post/plug-in-solar-uk/
Here is a thorough briefing for anyone interested:
https://solarenergyconcepts.co.uk/post/plug-in-solar-uk/
MattW
2



