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I think Burnham will win and then go on to get the crown tbh.

Will his popularity survive contact with the throne though ?

Yes, yes, no.

Question is- then what?

We could keep pinballing from Great New Hope to Great New Hope for a very long time.

I don't think there will be an opportunity to change leader again, it would look daft. And I think Burnham is a better politician than Starmer and so won't sink as low in the public's estimation.

Labour will have broken through the barrier though and deposed a sitting PM. Once that's happened, they could do it again and again and ....

I think Burnham will win and then go on to get the crown tbh.

Will his popularity survive contact with the throne though ?

Yes, yes, no.

Question is- then what?

We could keep pinballing from Great New Hope to Great New Hope for a very long time.

I don't think there will be an opportunity to change leader again, it would look daft. And I think Burnham is a better politician than Starmer and so won't sink as low in the public's estimation.

I think Burnham will get a decent honeymoon. There are several things in his favour:

- I sense the media is fed up of crap leaders so will want to go along with this one, for a while
- he's northern and chippy (what's more, a Scouser, the chippiest of all northern terroirs) and will play on that, turning criticisms of him into criticisms of the North by the London media mafia
- he has the ability to bullshit relatively charismatically, unlike his last 2 PM predecessors
- he will replace Reeves with a new chancellor, and even if that's Ed M (whom the right wing press hate but the country in general is meh) it'll represent a new start

I give him an 18 month to 2 year honeymoon before a somewhat gentler decline towards the next election (which will generate a hung parliament and Lib-Lab coalition).

I think this is where I am. Labour has to be value for most seats.

I would add one other thing: Burnham seems to have genuine fans. The way some people talk about him isn’t anything I’ve really seen since Johnson. I wonder if that will keep the Red Wall with him for longer. As a contrast with Farage he’s a good choice.

I think Burnham will win and then go on to get the crown tbh.

Will his popularity survive contact with the throne though ?

Yes, yes, no.

Question is- then what?

We could keep pinballing from Great New Hope to Great New Hope for a very long time.

I don't think there will be an opportunity to change leader again, it would look daft. And I think Burnham is a better politician than Starmer and so won't sink as low in the public's estimation.

I think Burnham will get a decent honeymoon. There are several things in his favour:

- I sense the media is fed up of crap leaders so will want to go along with this one, for a while
- he's northern and chippy (what's more, a Scouser, the chippiest of all northern terroirs) and will play on that, turning criticisms of him into criticisms of the North by the London media mafia
- he has the ability to bullshit relatively charismatically, unlike his last 2 PM predecessors
- he will replace Reeves with a new chancellor, and even if that's Ed M (whom the right wing press hate but the country in general is meh) it'll represent a new start

I give him an 18 month to 2 year honeymoon before a somewhat gentler decline towards the next election (which will generate a hung parliament and Lib-Lab coalition).

EDIT: oh and he'll make a mild effort at back-chatting Trump, unlikely Starmer, which will earn him brownie points with the 75% of the country that's not MAGA