Best Of

"PollCheck
@poll_checker

Senedd Voting Intention:

Plaid Cymru: 33% (-4.0)
Reform UK: 27% (+4.0)
Labour: 13% (+3.0)
Greens: 12% (-1.0)
Conservative: 7% (-3.0)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (=)
Others: 4% (+2.0)

Via: YouGov
MOE: ±2.1%
Field Work: 9 - 18 March changes w/ 13 January 2026

Seats:

PC 42
Ref 29
Lab 13
Grn 11
Con 1"

https://x.com/poll_checker/status/2036511284397584686

Tories on 1 seat?

Poor Kemi.

The Tories in May are set to be the Japanese during the Battle of Iwo Jima.

I expect the Tories to gain Westminster and Barnet and hold Kensington and Chelsea in May.

Kemi is proving very popular with posh wealthy people, especially posh rich West Londoners and Jews, it is now safe for you to say you are a Tory at one of your posh candlelit dinners and soirees.

However unfortunately for her that is a rather niche market, with rightwingers in most of the rest of the UK preferring Farage to her and leftwingers preferring Labour and the Greens and centrists preferring Labour and the LDs and Scottish and Welsh nats voting SNP and Plaid

I predicted a Plaid Green coalition some time ago and expect that both Scotland and Wales could have independence seeking governments

Labour 13 conservatives 1 lib dems 0 is quite a prediction but not impossible

Plaid have not included seeking independence in their manifesto and have ruled out even pushing the issue in their first term, which is the main reason they are ahead.

The SNP are already in power in Scotland but of course the UK government will refuse indyref2 whatever happens in May

The main reason Plaid are ahead is the utter contempt for labour's decades in power

The point is that if both Scotland and Wales elect independence parties then there is little prospect of any respect for Westminster and tensions between the nations will be the result

If Plaid were pushing independence hard, more of their current voters would be sticking with Labour or going Reform.

The UK government will of course ignore any independence push anyway

"PollCheck
@poll_checker

Senedd Voting Intention:

Plaid Cymru: 33% (-4.0)
Reform UK: 27% (+4.0)
Labour: 13% (+3.0)
Greens: 12% (-1.0)
Conservative: 7% (-3.0)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (=)
Others: 4% (+2.0)

Via: YouGov
MOE: ±2.1%
Field Work: 9 - 18 March changes w/ 13 January 2026

Seats:

PC 42
Ref 29
Lab 13
Grn 11
Con 1"

https://x.com/poll_checker/status/2036511284397584686

Tories on 1 seat?

Poor Kemi.

The Tories in May are set to be the Japanese during the Battle of Iwo Jima.

I expect the Tories to gain Westminster and Barnet and hold Kensington and Chelsea in May.

Kemi is proving very popular with posh wealthy people, especially posh rich West Londoners and Jews, it is now safe for you to say you are a Tory at one of your posh candlelit dinners and soirees.

However unfortunately for her that is a rather niche market, with rightwingers in most of the rest of the UK preferring Farage to her and leftwingers preferring Labour and the Greens and centrists preferring Labour and the LDs and Scottish and Welsh nats voting SNP and Plaid

I predicted a Plaid Green coalition some time ago and expect that both Scotland and Wales could have independence seeking governments

Labour 13 conservatives 1 lib dems 0 is quite a prediction but not impossible

Plaid have not included seeking independence in their manifesto and have ruled out even pushing the issue in their first term, which is the main reason they are ahead.

The SNP are already in power in Scotland but of course the UK government will refuse indyref2 whatever happens in May

The main reason Plaid are ahead is the utter contempt for labour's decades in power

The point is that if both Scotland and Wales elect independence parties then there is little prospect of any respect for Westminster and tensions between the nations will be the result

If Plaid were pushing independence hard, more of their current voters would be sticking with Labour or going Reform.

The UK government will of course ignore any independence push anyway

No they would not

You need only to look at the history of the SNP in Scotland which is now happening in Wales

Wales has always been far more pro Union and anti devolution let alone independence than Scotland.

In 1997 the Welsh devolved parliament referendum barely scraped home while in Scotland about 3/4 voted for devolution.

The only reason Plaid are now doing better (though still polling lower on average than the SNP) is they have dumped independence talk for the time being.

Yougov also have Plaid higher than other polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2036534298774225127

NEW: The Met Police will reopen its investigation into the theft of Morgan McSweeney’s phone after admitting it logged the wrong address

Officers reviewed CCTV from Belgrave Street in Tower Hamlets, not Belgrave Road in Pimlico, despite the phone containing the PM's number

The Met Police said: "On Monday, 20 October police received a report from a man in his 40s alleging that his phone had been snatched.

"The incident was recorded as having taken place in Belgrave Street, E1.

"A review of the allegation, including a consideration of whether there was available CCTV, did not identify any realistic lines of enquiry. The investigation was subsequently closed.

"In the course of responding to a recent media enquiry, we became aware that the address was entered incorrectly at the time of the initial call and should instead have been recorded as Belgrave Road, Pimlico.

"Having identified this error, the report will be amended and the assessment of whether there is available evidence revisited"

The theft of McSweeney's phone means his WhatsApp messages and texts to Peter Mandelson cannot be recovered

It is understood the phone was Government-issued

Is it wrong of me to have found that incredibly funny?