Best Of

Afternoon all.
Was taking a look at the Reform polling decline after last nights Opinium. They were last as low as 27 with them straddling the 2025 LEs (only a couple of 29s since, all others 30 plus) and were at 27 with them as far back as Jan 2025. The same goes for YouGov and Find Out Now - back to pre LE 2025 levels.with other pollsters they are running a point to two points above the run in to 2025 LEs.
The point i think that will prove crucial is that they are hitting these levels on a sharpish downward trajectory and not the sharp upward one early 2025 saw. This suggests at least the possibility of an undershoot versus expectations. Im of the opinion as we stand that this will show itself in a very poor Holyrood showing (possibly even falling below the Tories, LDs or Greens in seats, very probably below Labour), a poor London result, perhaps 4th in wards won and no more than 1 or 2 councils and failing to come first in Wales. Then id take a look at thr 73 seats they are defending - how many of them are lost?

The polls may turn of course and they have the virtual standing start premium of lots of gains but the potential for narrative shift exists

As you say though in most polls Reform are polling about as well as before the LE2025, they are about tied in Wales for the lead, likely to win the most or second most list seats at Holyrood and make gains in outer London suburbs. We are a long way yet from saying Reform are in real decline

Doing 30 braking versus doing 30 accelerating.

Unless heavy tactical anti Reform votes this year though Reform will likely see similar gains, especially in the country council and redwall large town and northern and Midlands cities voting and in Wales

I am not so sure about Farage in Wales as I once was. Yes, we love the racism and misogyny, but has the gloss been taken off by Nathan Gill and Farage's recent assertion that Welsh is a foreign language and Welsh language speakers who don't want to speak English can f*** off from where their ancestors came from in 800 AD and earlier. Eight hundred AD some years, it is worth mentioning is before the Huguenot Farage's ancestors left France.it is worth mentioning

Latest Welsh poll earlier this month still has Reform joint top on 26% with Plaid, with Labour third on 20%, followed by the Tories and Greens tied on 10%


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election

Not long ago I feared Reform would walk it. Plaid with Labour is probable now.

Every party needs to blame Trump for his vanity war and the reason fuel is unavailable and expensive, and that over here, Trump's little helper is a sweary man called Nigel.

The question really is, is this country more anti or pro Reform.

I am hoping Trump's unhinged war and Nigel's well known Trump adjacency might damage him. I am sure being unable to procure petrol is more important to the man cutting up the Clapham Omnibus. than hating people who aren't white.

All this Trump unhinged is all very well.....but what would you be saying if the loony religious leaders in Iran attacked the West/Israel with Nuclear weapons.
You would be the first to scream about the US not taking proactive action.

I don't believe you will find a post where I have cheered on the Mullahs. I would love to see regime change and if it were possible a secular democracy.
That said, Obama had a perfectly reasonable deal with Iran which limited their nuclear programmes and precluded them from producing weaponry. Trump 45 tore that up.

Bibi has been pleading with US Presidents on and off since 1996 to attack Tehran because the Mullahs are a mere 5 minutes away from acquiring nuclear weapons. Every President to Trump 47 has chosen to steer well clear of the quagmire we now find ourselves in the midst of. Trump 45 knew it was folly, but Trump 47 needed to bury the Epstein files. Go figure.

Afternoon all.
Was taking a look at the Reform polling decline after last nights Opinium. They were last as low as 27 with them straddling the 2025 LEs (only a couple of 29s since, all others 30 plus) and were at 27 with them as far back as Jan 2025. The same goes for YouGov and Find Out Now - back to pre LE 2025 levels.with other pollsters they are running a point to two points above the run in to 2025 LEs.
The point i think that will prove crucial is that they are hitting these levels on a sharpish downward trajectory and not the sharp upward one early 2025 saw. This suggests at least the possibility of an undershoot versus expectations. Im of the opinion as we stand that this will show itself in a very poor Holyrood showing (possibly even falling below the Tories, LDs or Greens in seats, very probably below Labour), a poor London result, perhaps 4th in wards won and no more than 1 or 2 councils and failing to come first in Wales. Then id take a look at thr 73 seats they are defending - how many of them are lost?

The polls may turn of course and they have the virtual standing start premium of lots of gains but the potential for narrative shift exists

As you say though in most polls Reform are polling about as well as before the LE2025, they are about tied in Wales for the lead, likely to win the most or second most list seats at Holyrood and make gains in outer London suburbs. We are a long way yet from saying Reform are in real decline

Doing 30 braking versus doing 30 accelerating.

Unless heavy tactical anti Reform votes this year though Reform will likely see similar gains, especially in the country council and redwall large town and northern and Midlands cities voting and in Wales

I am not so sure about Farage in Wales as I once was. Yes, we love the racism and misogyny, but has the gloss been taken off by Nathan Gill and Farage's recent assertion that Welsh is a foreign language and Welsh language speakers who don't want to speak English can f*** off from where their ancestors came from in 800 AD and earlier. Eight hundred AD some years, it is worth mentioning is before the Huguenot Farage's ancestors left France.it is worth mentioning

Latest Welsh poll earlier this month still has Reform joint top on 26% with Plaid, with Labour third on 20%, followed by the Tories and Greens tied on 10%


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election

Not long ago I feared Reform would walk it. Plaid with Labour is probable now.

Every party needs to blame Trump for his vanity war and the reason fuel is unavailable and expensive, and that over here, Trump's little helper is a sweary man called Nigel.

we shall FUK them on the beaches, we shall FUK them in the hills, we shall FUK them with growing strength and growing confidence in the air...

https://x.com/JoumannaTV/status/2035726686952563142

2 posts from UAE’s @AnwarGargash (Presidential advisor) in the last 20 mins

🔷 Iran’s aggression is reshaping Gulf security thinking. This is no longer about a ceasefire. It’s about LONG TERM SECURITY in the Gulf

🔷 The priority is to counter Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, drones and threats to key shipping lanes

🔷 The fallout may be the opposite of what Tehran intended: a more unified Gulf, stronger militaries and deeper security ties with Washington

“Deeper security ties with the US”

A scenario where Iran poses a “permanent state of threat” is inconceivable

Again, this screams "nukes" to me

Because that's the only way to totally subdue Iran and remove it "permanently" as a threat, without sending in 2 million US troops, who would inevitably be defeated a la Vietnamienne, anyway

Jeez. I wish I didn't think this; but I do, increasingly

If Saudi had them, would Iran be closing the Straits?

Maybe the Trump clan will deliver nukes to Riyadh for their billions in gratuities. Then problem belong GCC.

Was talking yesterday with someone in oil business who lives in Dubai

His comment was that the states in the region might well buy nukes, if Iran gets the bomb. From the Israelis.

In the late 19th century, Han Chinese settlers on Taiwan would EAT the locals, as they thought it would confer strength - eating certain desirable parts of these brave warrior tribesmen. They also boiled the meat down to make a soup, that supposedly prevented malaria

It's good that those sort of practices have gone out of fashion.

What amazes me is how this fact is barely known. I only found out coz I was in Taiwan and I did a lot of deep reading. Then discovered this

If it was an atrocity committed by western imperialists it would be in every single history book and endlessly cited as an example of hideous colonialist depravity

In China? Meh. TThey shrug

More sinned against than sinning, China, in the grand sweep of things over recorded time. But, yes. they've had their moments.

This is highly disoutable. If you look at Chinese imperialist atrocities over 3000 years, it's a long and extraordinary list, much of it barely known

eg Ever heard of this? Me neither, til very recently

"The Dzungar genocide (Chinese: 準噶爾滅族; pinyin: Zhǔngáěr mièzú) was the mass extermination of the Dzungar people, a confederation of Oirat Mongol tribes, by the Qing dynasty.[3]

The Dzungar Khanate was a confederation of several Tibetan Buddhist Oirat Mongol tribes that emerged in the early 17th century, and the last great nomadic empire in Asia. Some scholars estimate that about 80% of the Dzungar population, or around 500,000 to 800,000 people, were killed by a combination of warfare and disease during or after the Qing conquest in 1755–1757.[2][5] After wiping out the native population of Dzungaria, the Qing government then resettled Han, Hui, Uyghur, Salar and Sibe people on state farms in Dzungaria, along with Manchu Bannermen to repopulate the area."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzungar_genocide

I am a great admirer of China's magnificently ancient and storied civilisation. Also, steamed clams in rice wine, mm

However, "more sinned against that sinning"?? A lot of China's neighbours - some now absorbed into China - would disagree

China has been an Empire for ages and Empires do heinous things to enforce Imperial hegemony over their reluctant subjects, as critics of the shorter-lived British Empire are wont to point out (me included). I think there's essentially only been about a century when China wasn't imposing Imperial control, in more than two millennia of its history.

To say that China was, "more sinned against than sinning," is such an incuriously Eurocentric view of history.

We should all should aspire to a restlessly curious nothing-centric view of history, LP. With you there. I will try and up my game.

I don't know if anyone on here is a Reform member or activist.

I'm curious to know how local election candidates are being chosen - do the members have any say or is it all imposed from above i.e: Zia Yusuf or similar?

I ask because I've heard of a couple of examples in London where former Conservative Councillors who have defected to Reform have been told they aren't fighting the Ward in which they were a representative but some other Ward which seems odd

To broaden it out, is it normal practice for a defecting Councillor to fight their own patch under their new colours in other parties or do they get sent to another area as, what, penance for defecting?

When I was a Liberal and LD activist back in the Renaissance, there was always a selection process for the target Wards but for the non target areas, anyone who wanted to be a paper candidate could be such (I was on a few occasions). The only caveat was if you did win as a paper candidate you had to agree to serve as a Councillor. Mercifully, the good burghers never inflicted me on themselves - as clear an act of self-harm as could be imagined.

The other side of this nowadays is vetting - social media - which didn't happen in my day. If you had defaced a parchment or killed one of the King's Deer, it was generally best to admit it upfront.

We started off with the noble intention that everyone should be a proper candidate. With a commitment to campaigning, and all that sort of thing. But as there weren't 90 coming forward, barrels had to be scraped, and paper candidates such as yours truly will be appearing in no-hope wards.

Yeah, I've played that game. A long day in a target Ward then off to the Count where you don't look at the votes in your own patch but are watching what's happening in the important Wards.

One time, I almost missed my own declaration as I was watching the ballots in another Count so had to run across the hall to get on stage and discover I had got 150 votes and finished stone bonking last.

You still have to do all the paperwork of nominations but the expenses return was very easy.

I mentioned to my wife that a lot of paper Reform and Green candidates were likely to be elected as councillors in May and she said the very existence of paper candidates was the clearest indicator of the bankruptcy of FPTP as an electoral system.

Much as I've criticised FPTP over the years it was interesting what a vehement reaction she had against it, when I'm used to it as just one of those things that is inevitable in FPTP.

Mrs Password isn't entirely wrong. The reality is most parties have finite resources in terms of activists and have to put them where they can be most effective. There's a view probably in all parties you shouldn't stand in a seat you aren't going to try and win and I understand that but the counter-argument is those who want to vote for the party should have the opportunity so to do and not to be forced to either abstain or vote tactically because the party for whom they would like to vote isn't represented on the ballot.

If we purport to be in a plural democracy where many voices and opinions are to be encouraged, it seems wrong not to have that on of all things a ballot paper.

I probably won't have a Lib Dem candidate on the ballot paper in my Ward so I will have to decide what to do with my three votes.

Afternoon all.
Was taking a look at the Reform polling decline after last nights Opinium. They were last as low as 27 with them straddling the 2025 LEs (only a couple of 29s since, all others 30 plus) and were at 27 with them as far back as Jan 2025. The same goes for YouGov and Find Out Now - back to pre LE 2025 levels.with other pollsters they are running a point to two points above the run in to 2025 LEs.
The point i think that will prove crucial is that they are hitting these levels on a sharpish downward trajectory and not the sharp upward one early 2025 saw. This suggests at least the possibility of an undershoot versus expectations. Im of the opinion as we stand that this will show itself in a very poor Holyrood showing (possibly even falling below the Tories, LDs or Greens in seats, very probably below Labour), a poor London result, perhaps 4th in wards won and no more than 1 or 2 councils and failing to come first in Wales. Then id take a look at thr 73 seats they are defending - how many of them are lost?

The polls may turn of course and they have the virtual standing start premium of lots of gains but the potential for narrative shift exists

As you say though in most polls Reform are polling about as well as before the LE2025, they are about tied in Wales for the lead, likely to win the most or second most list seats at Holyrood and make gains in outer London suburbs. We are a long way yet from saying Reform are in real decline

Doing 30 braking versus doing 30 accelerating.

Unless heavy tactical anti Reform votes this year though Reform will likely see similar gains, especially in the country council and redwall large town and northern and Midlands cities voting and in Wales

I am not so sure about Farage in Wales as I once was. Yes, we love the racism and misogyny, but has the gloss been taken off by Nathan Gill and Farage's recent assertion that Welsh is a foreign language and Welsh language speakers who don't want to speak English can f*** off from where their ancestors came from in 800 AD and earlier. Eight hundred AD some years, it is worth mentioning is before the Huguenot Farage's ancestors left France.it is worth mentioning

Latest Welsh poll earlier this month still has Reform joint top on 26% with Plaid, with Labour third on 20%, followed by the Tories and Greens tied on 10%


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election

Not long ago I feared Reform would walk it. Plaid with Labour is probable now.

Every party needs to blame Trump for his vanity war and the reason fuel is unavailable and expensive, and that over here, Trump's little helper is a sweary man called Nigel.

In the late 19th century, Han Chinese settlers on Taiwan would EAT the locals, as they thought it would confer strength - eating certain desirable parts of these brave warrior tribesmen. They also boiled the meat down to make a soup, that supposedly prevented malaria

It's good that those sort of practices have gone out of fashion.

What amazes me is how this fact is barely known. I only found out coz I was in Taiwan and I did a lot of deep reading. Then discovered this

If it was an atrocity committed by western imperialists it would be in every single history book and endlessly cited as an example of hideous colonialist depravity

In China? Meh. TThey shrug

More sinned against than sinning, China, in the grand sweep of things over recorded time. But, yes. they've had their moments.

This is highly disoutable. If you look at Chinese imperialist atrocities over 3000 years, it's a long and extraordinary list, much of it barely known

eg Ever heard of this? Me neither, til very recently

"The Dzungar genocide (Chinese: 準噶爾滅族; pinyin: Zhǔngáěr mièzú) was the mass extermination of the Dzungar people, a confederation of Oirat Mongol tribes, by the Qing dynasty.[3]

The Dzungar Khanate was a confederation of several Tibetan Buddhist Oirat Mongol tribes that emerged in the early 17th century, and the last great nomadic empire in Asia. Some scholars estimate that about 80% of the Dzungar population, or around 500,000 to 800,000 people, were killed by a combination of warfare and disease during or after the Qing conquest in 1755–1757.[2][5] After wiping out the native population of Dzungaria, the Qing government then resettled Han, Hui, Uyghur, Salar and Sibe people on state farms in Dzungaria, along with Manchu Bannermen to repopulate the area."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzungar_genocide

I am a great admirer of China's magnificently ancient and storied civilisation. Also, steamed clams in rice wine, mm

However, "more sinned against that sinning"?? A lot of China's neighbours - some now absorbed into China - would disagree

I gave my nephew, recently turned six, a 3D world globe puzzle for Christmas (which he enjoyed assembling), and I could tell it was made in China without looking at the box or instructions. How, I hear you ask?

Easy, India's northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh is shown as belonging to China!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arunachal_Pradesh