Best Of

Yet more fires in Russia. This one could be a gas pipeline.

https://x.com/tendar/status/2064404551352955229

If only there were a way to stop Russian soldiers getting paid as well the war would be over in a week.

The rate on Russian bonds is up to 15% again today. Brent has fallen a lot today on data from China showing a huge drop in Chinese crude oil imports. The Russian Central Bank has started printing money to buy Russian bonds and fund the war effort. There's been a steady flow of cash out of the Russian banking system for the last twelve months, most likely as Russians use their savings to cope with inflation and some employers putting employees onto short hours. The Russian government is urgently trying to privatise assets to raise cash, but there were no buyers for a Russian coal company they wanted to sell.

The signs of increasing stress on Russia's economy and government finances are there, but how much road they have left for can-kicking I don't know.

I could envisage the oligarchs deciding they need to dispense with Putin and transfer their allegiance to some bastard like Sergey Lavrov.

Recently there was a big argument in the higher echelons of the Russian state over the number of senior generals being assassinated by the Ukrainians. The generals weren't happy that the FSB wasn't able to protect them.

Putin smoothed things over by saying that his own personal bodyguard force would be used to protect the most senior people.

Of course, this means that the highly-trained and uber-loyal Presidential bodyguard force is now in place, "protecting" all the other most senior members of the government and armed forces. Kinda convenient for Putin that.

Yet more fires in Russia. This one could be a gas pipeline.

https://x.com/tendar/status/2064404551352955229

If only there were a way to stop Russian soldiers getting paid as well the war would be over in a week.

The rate on Russian bonds is up to 15% again today. Brent has fallen a lot today on data from China showing a huge drop in Chinese crude oil imports. The Russian Central Bank has started printing money to buy Russian bonds and fund the war effort. There's been a steady flow of cash out of the Russian banking system for the last twelve months, most likely as Russians use their savings to cope with inflation and some employers putting employees onto short hours. The Russian government is urgently trying to privatise assets to raise cash, but there were no buyers for a Russian coal company they wanted to sell.

The signs of increasing stress on Russia's economy and government finances are there, but how much road they have left for can-kicking I don't know.

Yes the economic news out of Russia is terrible, and if they’re saying that officially then we know it’s a lot worse behind the scenes. They’re at least half way through their gold reserves already, with China the buyers well under market price, and they’ve had to significant’y cut signup payments to new soldiers. Meanwhile inflation is rampant despite official figures, and fuel is again being rationed in large parts of the country.

The war is now affecting ordinary Russians in a way it hasn’t up until this year. The bombing of St. Petersberg last week, taking out an oil depot and a warship just as Putin opened a big economic conference there, was possibly the icing on the cake for the elites realising the war was coming to them.

Elon Musk is retweeting Rupert Lowe again:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2064396727344320767

Musk’s comment:

Only Restore Britain can save Britain.

It is the only way.

That’s a nakedly partisan political comment to someone with likely several million UK followers, during a restricted election period.

Will one of the other parties ask for a ruling from the Electoral Commission on what might be the value of such posts, if they need to be included in by-election spending, and ask Lowe to produce any communications he may have had with Mr Musk?

Eh?

So if Lord Sugar or Tony Robinson or other celebs who've endorsed Labour in the past make naked partisan comments, does that get counted against their budget?

Many ways to criticise Musk and Restore, but celebrities making comments is neither new nor actionable surely?

But Musk isn’t just commenting. He’s broadcasting his message to the world through the social media platform he owns. Twitter is programmed to push his thoughts at people. That’s closer to if Lord Sugar took out a paid advert.

That's not new though, Murdoch has broadcast his messages to the world through platforms he owns for decades. When has it ever been expensed?

Sandpit asked whether Lowe had had communications with Musk. If someone endorsed you, that’s one thing. If a candidate arranges with someone for the equivalent of a paid ad, that’s something that could come under rules around election communications and donations.

Yes, it’s a question worth asking and having a ruling made.

I’m in favour of freedom of speech, but we don’t want to do down the US route of billions of pounds of potentially untraceable money spent on elections.