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There is apparently a substantial portion of Labour members who want to keep Starmer.

If some of them live in Makersfield, I wonder how they would vote in this by- election?

I don't want Starmer to stay.

I don't want Burnham to replace him.

If I lived in Makerfield I would spoil my ballot.

...which would allow Starmer to stay.

I hesitate to say it but the best way to achieve your twin aims would be to vote Reform, because if Burnham loses I still think Starmer is toast... it's just that Rayner will be taking over.

It was all going so well until those last 8 words.

Well that's my point. Does @SandyRentool want Burnham to replace Starmer? Or Rayner? Because that's the choice imo.

I want Mahmood or Phillipson. But I know that is very unlikely to happen.

I don't want Burnham, due to his arrogance and sense of entitlement.

Everyone else falls between those two poles.

There is apparently a substantial portion of Labour members who want to keep Starmer.

If some of them live in Makersfield, I wonder how they would vote in this by- election?

I don't want Starmer to stay.

I don't want Burnham to replace him.

If I lived in Makerfield I would spoil my ballot.

...which would allow Starmer to stay.

I hesitate to say it but the best way to achieve your twin aims would be to vote Reform, because if Burnham loses I still think Starmer is toast... it's just that Rayner will be taking over.

It was all going so well until those last 8 words.

Well that's my point. Does @SandyRentool want Burnham to replace Starmer? Or Rayner? Because that's the choice imo.

Sandy is on record as being in favour of the extinction of the human race, so I can understand why he might see the choice as inconsequential.

There is apparently a substantial portion of Labour members who want to keep Starmer.

If some of them live in Makersfield, I wonder how they would vote in this by- election?

I don't want Starmer to stay.

I don't want Burnham to replace him.

If I lived in Makerfield I would spoil my ballot.

...which would allow Starmer to stay.

I hesitate to say it but the best way to achieve your twin aims would be to vote Reform, because if Burnham loses I still think Starmer is toast... it's just that Rayner will be taking over.

It was all going so well until those last 8 words.

Well that's my point. Does @SandyRentool want Burnham to replace Starmer? Or Rayner? Because that's the choice imo.

Nick Palmer's constituency report suggests it might be squeaky bum time for Burnham.

I’d trust NPXMP’s informed comments absolutely.

But I can’t shake my uninformed view that Burnham will win easily.

I wouldn't. NPXMP infamously got it badly wrong in his own constituency in the run up to GE2015.

He's probably concerned about turnout. Burnham will win because he's the root to getting rid of Starmer.

And that's as far as most people's thinking will go.

I said Burnham would walk it as far back as 22nd May. And he will. The mood of the country is get rid of Starmer and bring about some actual change. If you are in Makerfield you can directly make both things happen by voting Burnham. WIth respect to the the plastic plumber, what good would another Reform moron in Parliament actually do? No power to do shit. Whereas if you vote for the plastic scouser, everything can change.

This was always the Burnham pitch. There is no Labour candidate in this by-election. Just Burnham.

Nick Palmer's constituency report suggests it might be squeaky bum time for Burnham.

I’d trust NPXMP’s informed comments absolutely.

But I can’t shake my uninformed view that Burnham will win easily.

I wouldn't. NPXMP infamously got it badly wrong in his own constituency in the run up to GE2015.

He's probably concerned about turnout. Burnham will win because he's the root to getting rid of Starmer.

And that's as far as most people's thinking will go.

Here's the thing - what do Conservatives actually want from this by-election?

IF Burnham wins, it's likely Starmer will soon be gone and there'll be a new PM in town and life may get tougher for Badenoch in the Commons, OTOH, Reform will be badly dented and that will increase the chances of the Conservatives moving back into a clear second and re-establishing themselves as the alternative "Right wing" option to Labour.

However, let's say Reform wins - Starmer stays, weakened and humiliated BUT Reform will be buoyant and look more like a Government in waiting with the Conservatives becoming less and less relevant.

Interesting times?

Burnham as PM pushing a tax and spend agenda also makes it easier for Kemi to push clearer economic blue water with Labour and there will be less culture wars against him than Reform have been able to push against Starmer

Yes, its very clearly in the Tories interests that Burnham accelerates the decline of Reform.

Indeed, the best result for the Tories is Burnham winning and starting to win back some working class voters for Labour on a tax and spend agenda (as well as squeezing the Greens) while accepting Brexit for the time being. While Restore comfortably hold their deposit and get a significant vote so Reform face a new threat from the nationalist right potentially dividing the Reform vote

Also - If the Tories win Aberdeen South that would really be a good day for Kemi. Reform will be desperate to split the anti-SNP vote there.

Reform won 0 constituency seats in the Holyrood elections, Scotland is largely irrelevant for them.

Reform would far prefer to win Makerfield and squeeze Restore than stop the Tories winning Aberdeen S from the SNP

Reform 17 MSPs, joint second

Conservatives 12 MSPs, trailing in fifth

Irrelevant for Reform, embarrassing for the Conservatives.

ALL Reform MSPs were won on the list. Westminster is 100% FPTP and in the FPTP Holyrood seats the Conservatives won 5 and Reform 0

Interesting snippet from the SpaceX IPO prospectus: the “Space launch” part of the business has a gross profit margin of 67%.

FAANG level margins in the physical world is impressive, whatever you think of Musk. I guess eventually there will be launch competitors that have re-usable rockets with a similar cost basis, but until they get there SpaceX is the only game in town.

The Falcon 9 first stage is damn close to “just drag it back to the pad and refuel it”, which is totally crazy. The new Starship v3 might well be the one that actually goes to production, and will be able to launch hundreds of tonnes to orbit in short order.

Starlink also has a massive first-mover advantage, and now offers broadband pretty much anywhere on the planet, land, sea, or air. They’re a couple of years ahead of the competition there too, and already have the majority of airlines on board.

Then add in the xAI business, and what used to be called Twitter, and it’s quite the company.

A seriously strong price for the IPO though, the early investors will do very well indeed, but there’s somehow still a lot of potential for exponential growth in the next 2-4 years timespan.