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Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
Thanks, MR, really good header, although I don't agree about us having no choice but to remain a vassal of the US on defence matters. It won't be easy after all these years to take a different path but we will have to unless America pivots back to sanity post Donald Trump. It's impossible to decide what strategy is best until this becomes clearer. If we do opt for detachment from a gone-bad Uncle Sam I think I prefer the policy of scrapping our (not) independent nuclear deterrent to spending ludicrous sums on building a new one. There are better ways to use the defence budget. Ways more aligned to the actual threats we face.
kinabalu
2
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
If we start developing our own independent nuclear deterrent, do we risk being bombed by Israel and America? Are our enrichment facilities suitably hidden?
MelonB
2
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
Give it time, HYUFD.If we start developing our own independent nuclear deterrent, do we risk being bombed by Israel and America? Are our enrichment facilities suitably hidden?We are already a recognised nuclear missile power and no threat to the US or Israel. France has an independent deterrent, are the US and Israel bombing them? Of course not
MelonB
1
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
I get that Labour is very historically low however the gap between them and first place is fairly average historically?Not sure the past can really inform us much about what is going on now, it’s no longer 2 or 2.5 party politics.
RobD
3
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
Boom!Is this how Threads start?
First strike.
ydoethur
3
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
Perhaps a joint programme with Putin would suit you better?Just ask the French nicely to get a piece of their independent nuclear deterrent. It wouldn't be nuclear independence per se, but closer collaboration with a regional power on an approximately equivalent level may be preferable to being the(very) junior lickspittle partner in an unstable coalition with the USA, who appear to have quite a low opinion of us.This is possibly the most idiotic thing I've read on PB all month.
Foxy
2
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
I did see an argument that SLBMs weren't all that great, because they'd cop a nuclear missile in return before they could launch all their missiles, with no chance of outrunning the compression wave from the nuke sent after them. But I guess you have a pretty good chance of at least getting the first missile away (as long as it isn't a dud).If you have a plane-based deterrent, then you need to keep several in the air 24/7 (not the same ones: you rotate) because the time to get them in the air from the ground base is greater than the time it takes the Russians to nuke the ground base. SLBMs are preferred for a reason.If you'll forgive me @MoonRabbit, repatriating the British deterrent and its delivery system is doable. You do it by doing it in slices, exploring alternates, and keep it off the books (see the Chevaline project for an example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevaline ). All that is needed os the will of a competent governmentYou need:
Unfortunately I think that (for different reasons) Starmer, Badenoch and Farage don't fall into that category
(a) enriched uranium or plutonium
We have a civilian nuclear industry so we have the raw materials. We don't have HEU, currently. But this also isn't that technically complicted to achieve; you just need a bloody load of centrifuges, which can be relatively easily and cheaply acquired.
(b) to build a warhead
Nuclear warheads are not that complicated. The basics, unless you want to go the hydrogen bomb route, are terribly simple. Sphere of HEU. Shaped charges. With today's modern electronics, it really wouldn't be that complicated.
(c) a delivery system (i.e. a missile)
There's really no reason why Storm Shadow could not carry a nuclear warhead. It would only be a small one (it can carry a 450kg warhead), and there are clearly some engineering challenges involves. But ultimately Storm Shadow (like every cruise missile) is basically just a plane, and while it might look a little ungainly to stick a nuclear warhead in there, it could clearly be done.
(It's a lot easier to make a cruide missile nuclear capable than a ballastic one.)
Bearing in mind the failures of the last couple of British Trident missile tests it might be sensible to develop a replacement anyway. The current ones don't seem to work.
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
If you'll forgive me @MoonRabbit, repatriating the British deterrent and its delivery system is doable. You do it by doing it in slices, exploring alternates, and keep it off the books (see the Chevaline project for an example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevaline ). All that is needed os the will of a competent government
Unfortunately I think that (for different reasons) Starmer, Badenoch and Farage don't fall into that category
Unfortunately I think that (for different reasons) Starmer, Badenoch and Farage don't fall into that category
3
Re: A majority of Brits think World War 3 is likely in the next 5 to 10 years – politicalbetting.com
TSE - I have sent you a header to the usual place, if you want it. 🙋♀️I'll publish it shortly

