Best Of

In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.

The Tories were the originators of the Conservative Party ie supporters of the Crown, originally those committed to the succession of James, Duke of York and Church of England as established church. They then became the Conservatives under Peel though after Peel repealed the Corn Laws and the Tories then became protectionist many Peelites joined with the Whigs to create the Liberals, including Gladstone. Then some Liberal Unionists joined the Conservatives in the late 19th century and with the rise of Labour in the early 20th century the Conservatives became more committed to free trade and a smaller state relative and capitalism relative to Labour so attracted some middle class Liberal free traders to keep out Labour. That culminated in Thatcher who combined basically Gladstonian Liberalism with Salisbury's national patriotism.

Now under Kemi the Conservatives are basically accepting of Brexit, while in theory more free market and small state than Labour still and Reform on some issues while a bit more socially liberal than Farage is. Though there are now plenty of Thatcherites in Reform too, Reform tends to have a more nationalist element

Detaiked and true as ever, but it may have been better with more details about the gap between Nov 1989 (the end of MT) and Nov 2024 (appt of Kemi). That's thirty-five missing years.

Morning all
Techne show Greens breaking through 15% for the first time away from YG/FoN and more Ref decline

Ref 27 (-3)
Con 18 (-1)
Grn 17 (+2)
Lab 17 (=)
LD 14 (=)
SNP 3 (=)

My guess is that the advantage in the next GE will be to the Left of Centre tactical voting coalition over the Right of Centre alternative. I think they will be better at organising. The Right of Centre (Tory+ Reform) combined vote has also been drifting down over the last few months. The killer might be in six months to a year's time when both Tories and Reform announce a relaunch.

If Badenoch can get Liz Truss to defect to Reform that might be enough to propel the Conservatives into first place.

So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


Weak weak weak.

Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Yawn
Yawn
Yawn

Go back to bed then.

LOL

Sleep deprivation is a serious issue - can point to sleep apnea. Should get that checked out.

OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

- there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
- sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
- the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
- Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
- after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
- the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
- understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

I gave that a like, even though I think a few are off target (I am just as likely as you to be wrong, of course).

Alternatively.

- There's a referendum in the late 2020s, and we rejoin the EU around the same time as Ukraine does. It proves a success.
- Birthrate becomes less of a concern thanks to automation and robotics. The smaller population benefits accordingly.
- The follies and disasters of Trump leads to a landslide against the GOP. It takes most of the next decade to fully convince the rest of the world he was just an aberration.
- Putin is succeeded by another autocrat. Russia doesn't change at all; but is contained by its neighbours, and becomes even poorer relative to the RoW.
- Xi dies. The CCC maintains its stranglehold on power. I have no idea what happens next.
- AI, despite remaining 'dumb' for the foreseeable future, completely reorders society.

EU - slowly the UK as good as rejoins, Brexit supporters are allowed to carry on believing UK has still left and no one even suggests another Referendum
US - Trump is allowed to run again and claims the win under very dubious circumstances, SCOTUS mutters "will of the people" and evades making any ruling. Trump's health continues to decline, Stephen Miller takes effective control and eventually Presidency as US turns into totalitarian fascist regime.
Russia - Putin is embalmed and the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues into a second decade of seasonal power shifts but overall stalemate
UK - living standards continue to decline with the tax rate on under 50s rising inexorably. Dementia care homes multiply.

So.. the economy is stalled.. Eds running round like a headless chicken saying he's going to stop oil companies profiting from higher prices.. without the faintest idea how to do so. Starmer's in deep deep shit over Mandelson where an apology won't cut it , the Defence sec is useless despite being suggested as an alternative to Starmer. Its all going so well...


Weak weak weak.

Reports that in the 100,000 documents to be released, including whats app messages, some senior labour mps will be embarrasingly compromised

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/12/starmer-may-face-more-resignations-after-release-of-mandelson-whatsapp-messages-say-sources?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Yawn
Yawn
Yawn

Go back to bed then.

In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.

I tend to believe that the left of the conservatives and the right of labour are not that far apart. Hence Blair was acceptable, as was Cameron, to some of those in the other party. Corbyns version of Labour and the rightward drift of the Tories negates that. I feel that both parties are currently looking in the wrong direction for the 'lost' voters. The racists of reform, and the hard line Gaza/communists of the left are not coming back.

Being a centrist dad the Toryism of Major, Hurd and Heseltine looks totally fine to me. But the modern Tory party is a million miles from that kind of decency and pragmatism.

This evening's Trump whine. He isn't getting enough credit for being in office when it hits 250 years of independence.


Acyn
@Acyn
·
53m
Trump: We have the Olympics, the World Cup, and twenty—you know, the 250. I did all three all of them. I got the Olympics, the World Cup, and then I got 250 but I’ve never been given credit for it. They won’t give me credit for 250 years but I’m here for 250.

https://x.com/Acyn/status/2032197976295432323

1783 to 2026 is only 243 years.

#pedanticbetting

To be fair they had the big 200 year celebrations in 1976 not 1983. No idea why but it was the big anniversary date in the US.

They uses the Declaration of Independence - 1776 - as the start date. In 1783 the Brits were just recognising the facts on the ground

Did Ireland become independent in 1916 or 1921?