Best Of
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
And this morning, although it’s so gloomy that the precipitation is hardly within sight. Roll on January when the days start getting longer.Last night here for sure along with gale force winds.Precipitation within sight was always one of my favourites. Described a fair bit of Scotland a fair bit of the time.It's a weird yet comforting incantation to wake up to.Christ, that Jane Austen style shipping forecast on R4 is total cringe. If they didn’t cobble it together using AI they made every effort to make it sound as if they did.I find it impentrable but restful. It's good if some things don't change!
Moderate to good.
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Inflation minus 0.2% in November, bringing the annual rate down to 3.2%. I expect that'll continue to fall down towards target by the middle of next year.
BoE certain to cut rates to 3.75% tomorrow and we're likely to see further cuts next year.
BoE certain to cut rates to 3.75% tomorrow and we're likely to see further cuts next year.
Ratters
1
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Because they thought his behaviour attracted voters from the red wall.Boris was on a bizarre journey of self-destruction, he would never had lasted to 2024.Yes and forcing Boris out led to a landslide Labour victory and loss of the all the Conservative redwall seats, Biden I suspect would still have done better in the rustbelt than Harris did as he did in 2020With the support of his cabinet and the Dem establishment.Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't helpHarris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.
Compare how the cabinet and MPs forced Boris out here to the lickspittle loyalty Buttigieg and the others showed to Biden.
What you Conservatives need to ask yourselves is why you never made any attempt to control Boris's behaviour as PM.
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
There was serious talk about Gore running in 2004, Kerry running in 2008, Romney running in 2016 and of course Trump did run in 2024. Those are just examples from this century. Speculation about losing candidates having another go is fairly usual, and it's probably because they have high name recognition and are still seen as something of a standard bearer to an extent. Most of the time, though, they don't run again unless their following is particularly strong (i.e. Trump).And Trump had proved he could win a presidential election in 2016, even if he lost in 2020
HYUFD
1
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
There was serious talk about Gore running in 2004, Kerry running in 2008, Romney running in 2016 and of course Trump did run in 2024. Those are just examples from this century. Speculation about losing candidates having another go is fairly usual, and it's probably because they have high name recognition and are still seen as something of a standard bearer to an extent. Most of the time, though, they don't run again unless their following is particularly strong (i.e. Trump).
JSpring
4
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
The nominee Polymarket, with $300m+ traded so far, is very weird.I think Trump's dire performance as President is in danger of making us forget what a dismal candidate Harris was. She never seemed to say why she wanted to be President, had no original or inspiring ideas and, when given the chance to put her point across, actively fled from the media.For all their faults Kennedy, Clinton, & Obama were three of the most outstanding political leaders of my lifetime. The only potential candidate coming anywhere near now is Buttigieg.
As I've said before, Democrats win when they have a charismatic bullshitter who inspires the young and the left without terrifying the centre and the middle-aged then lets them down in office - see Kennedy, Clinton, Obama. Trump may be so unpopular by 2028 that even Harris will win, or maybe she will be able to fake enough charisma, but the Democrats would be unwise to bank on that.
What do you think?
https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
The two favourites are Newsom and AOC, and I don’t see how either of them get there. Middle America isn’t voting for a very coastal liberal.
Gretchen Whitmer at 50/1 could be a good outsider, and they’ll want to keep at least one woman in the race for as long as possible. Josh Shapiro is probably underpriced at 20/1, as is Andy Beshear at 33/1.
Sandpit
2
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Biden hanging on till the last moment didn't helpHarris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.If they’d actually had primaries and nominated a candidate who wasn’t terrible, they might even have beaten Trump.
geoffw
4
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
I suggest it is evidence that she was not as poor a candidate as some believe.Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.That’s copium on a par with ‘Corbyn got a higher popular vote than Starmer’
It doesn’t change the fact she lost and that she was a poor candidate.
She was a far superior candidate to Trump. As would almost anyone have beenn.I suggest it is evidence that she was not as poor a candidate as some believe.Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.That’s copium on a par with ‘Corbyn got a higher popular vote than Starmer’
It doesn’t change the fact she lost and that she was a poor candidate.
What seems odd to me is that a candidate from the left has to be both moderate and personally perfect in every way to stand a chance of winning, yet a candidate from the right can be any raving lunatic with no principles whatsoever and that's perfectly fine. And I say that as a centrist with no axe to grind for either side.
PJH
5
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Meanwhile, Trump is writing unhinged Truth Social posts about Venezuela and the oil and land they stole from the US. No, I don’t know what he’s going on about either.
Re: A little bit of history repeating? – politicalbetting.com
Harris lost the popular vote by a mere 1.5%. She got a higher share of the popular vote than Trump did in 2016, than Dubya did in 2000, or than Bill Clinton did in 1992.That’s copium on a par with ‘Corbyn got a higher popular vote than Starmer’
It doesn’t change the fact she lost and that she was a poor candidate.
Taz
2