Best Of
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
I've just re-read the ECHR. The principle of non-refoulement is absolute: "they do not allow for any derogation, exception or limitation. The prohibition of refoulement applies both at the border and within the territory of a state"Refoulement shouldn’t apply to France:
Which of course means the mid-point of the channel where British and French waters meet. There is no "international" zone and the French will always escort out migrants until they've hit British waters.
Snookered.
Under the European Convention of Human Rights don't see any way out of this. Unless the ECHR is fundamentally reformed, we will have to opt out, modify the 1998 Human Rights Act and derogate from the 1951 Refugee Convention.
I don't see any alternative.
https://fra.europa.eu/sites/default/files/fra_uploads/fra-coe-2020-european-law-land-borders_en.pdf
Refoulement: the forcible return of refugees or asylum seekers to a country where they are liable to be subjected to persecution.
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
It's true that Eritrea in one of the grimmest places in the world to live, but that isn't our fault.Yes. The system is now collapsing, and with it an entire worldview - the worldview of lying fools like @bondegezou"Approval rates were updated this week: 98 per cent for Sudanese and Syrians, 87 per cent for Eritreans. Such figures serve as adverts, saying that an Eritrean who finds £10,000 to pay the gangs has a nine-in-ten chance of success — probably higher when you factor in appeals and the chance to disappear if it goes wrong. By no coincidence, Eritreans have now risen to the top of small-boat arrivals. Bad laws are driving desperate people straight into traffickers’ hands."And what happens here is that Eritreans club together in their village to fund one fit and healthy young one, who has the best chance to make it. When they do they succeed because, lol, they're from Eritrea, and they remit back their earnings to repay their investment (and more) and use the Right to Family Life to bring over their families as well.
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/tories-are-the-insurgents-after-hotel-judgment-vx0xbb568
The whole thing is bollocks. Utter utter bollocks.
I’ve heard the most bloodcurdling stuff from friends and acquaintances these last months. And they’re getting MORE strident, not less
Some of it is outright racism, which is grim and deplorable. Britain feels like a pan of oily cooking on the stove which is now boiling over and threatens to catch fire.
So what’s the first thing you do? Take it away from the heat source
Call a halt to 90% of migration, end the right to asylum, deport all foreign criminals, stop the boats. Do that and the seething mess will subside, the immediate danger is averted
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/jan/20/eritrea-torture-terror-prisons-former-prisoners

2
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
Yes. The system is now collapsing, and with it an entire worldview - the worldview of lying fools like @bondegezou"Approval rates were updated this week: 98 per cent for Sudanese and Syrians, 87 per cent for Eritreans. Such figures serve as adverts, saying that an Eritrean who finds £10,000 to pay the gangs has a nine-in-ten chance of success — probably higher when you factor in appeals and the chance to disappear if it goes wrong. By no coincidence, Eritreans have now risen to the top of small-boat arrivals. Bad laws are driving desperate people straight into traffickers’ hands."And what happens here is that Eritreans club together in their village to fund one fit and healthy young one, who has the best chance to make it. When they do they succeed because, lol, they're from Eritrea, and they remit back their earnings to repay their investment (and more) and use the Right to Family Life to bring over their families as well.
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/tories-are-the-insurgents-after-hotel-judgment-vx0xbb568
The whole thing is bollocks. Utter utter bollocks.
I’ve heard the most bloodcurdling stuff from friends and acquaintances these last months. And they’re getting MORE strident, not less
Some of it is outright racism, which is grim and deplorable. Britain feels like a pan of oily cooking on the stove which is now boiling over and threatens to catch fire.
So what’s the first thing you do? Take it away from the heat source
Call a halt to 90% of migration, end the right to asylum, deport all foreign criminals, stop the boats. Do that and the seething mess will subside, the immediate danger is averted

0
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
Wikipedia has a new Opinium poll with Ref 29%, Lab 23%, Con 17%, LD 14%, Grn 9% but I can't find reference to it anywhere else, and the link given in Wikipedia isn't working. So not sure it's genuine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2025
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/VI-2025-08-20-Data-Tables-1256.xlsx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2025
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/VI-2025-08-20-Data-Tables-1256.xlsx

1
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
Just been visiting with a friend. A bundle of news.
It turns out that one of our local gypsies is up on manslaughter charges having killed someone who intervened to try and separate him from somebody he was having an altercation with at the local pub. Never get involved when a boxer is in a shouting match. He did a runner then handed himself in.
And a motorcyclist was killed in a "single vehicle collision" at 11:20pm one night last week not too far away from here.
And they took the grandkids to Alton Towers for the day, failed to notice the monorail and walked more than a mile from the car park
. They had four "Gold Passes" (ie jump the queues once for the big rides) amongst the 5 of them. Just under £600 for the day, which was a little more than I paid last time I was there. It's apparently "this year's big day out".
Death stats of all sorts may be up this year, it seems. That's our full pro-rata quota of road deaths this year ie one.
And - a bit further away a motorcyclist was killed at the end of July in a collision involving an interesting set of vehicles:
Officers now want to speak to anyone who saw any of the vehicles involved - a Harley Davidson motorcycle, a Volvo V90 and a Bentley Brooklands - in the moments before the collision.
It turns out that one of our local gypsies is up on manslaughter charges having killed someone who intervened to try and separate him from somebody he was having an altercation with at the local pub. Never get involved when a boxer is in a shouting match. He did a runner then handed himself in.
And a motorcyclist was killed in a "single vehicle collision" at 11:20pm one night last week not too far away from here.
And they took the grandkids to Alton Towers for the day, failed to notice the monorail and walked more than a mile from the car park

Death stats of all sorts may be up this year, it seems. That's our full pro-rata quota of road deaths this year ie one.
And - a bit further away a motorcyclist was killed at the end of July in a collision involving an interesting set of vehicles:
Officers now want to speak to anyone who saw any of the vehicles involved - a Harley Davidson motorcycle, a Volvo V90 and a Bentley Brooklands - in the moments before the collision.

1
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
I would add that the last time I had travellers cheques was maybe 15 years ago (maybe longer) and they were nearly impossible to use in daily environment. This was in the US, where in the noughties, they were super easy way of getting cash i.e. you went to big chain supermarket, bought some items, used the travellers cheque, got cash as the change. Even far less touristy places were aware of them and happy to take them (although you might have to wait for the checkout girl to get a manager to give the thumbs up). From my memory, when I last tried to use them in that way, all of a sudden it was a straight no won't take them from lots of places.Thanks.Traveller's cheques. Can you still get/use them?No idea, but why would you use them? The range of options for cards / apps for using abroad is seemingly infinite.
I can't think of a reason you wouldn't either have a bank account link Monzo or Revolut, or a card like FairFX, for most major tourist destinations. Although off to China soonish and looks like I need to get WeChat and Alipay setup for there.
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
You don’t understand. We’re doneNone of the appeals are automatic. You have to make a case to be allowed to appeal. Just saying you don't like the decision doesn't count. With no case, you won't even be appealing the first decision.Look at this: it all ends at 'upper tribunal hearing' or 'possibility to apply for a judicial review.'Yes, I've just read the actual article and... hmmmmmLets wait and see. Is a good decision if magically this fast track system starts to have a much higher rate of acceptance of asylum claims? Some will say yes its clearing the backlog, some will be suspicious.Keir Starmer to curb judges’ power in asylum casesMy god. An actual Good Decision.... apparently
The main tribunal courts used by failed refugees to challenge Home Office decisions are to be phased out and replaced by a fast-track system under plans to be announced by ministers within weeks.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/asylum-seekers-migrants-appeal-system-overhaul-hotels-keir-starmer-chdvn8sxh
Let's hope they do this. It's a crucial first step. The public have lost all confidence in this system
And of course, there will be seemingly infinite legal challenges at every stage.
I reckon the mess will simply be shifted to more approvals and more use of houses rather than hotels, and blah blah blah. Labour are emotionally and constitutionally incapable of really addressing this crisis
The answer is to end the right of asylum as we know it. Simple. Only Reform will do that
Maybe it's me but it seems to be missing an "immediately fuck off" outcome:
We just want them all to go home, and if you enter illegally, we kick you out instantly

2
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
"Approval rates were updated this week: 98 per cent for Sudanese and Syrians, 87 per cent for Eritreans. Such figures serve as adverts, saying that an Eritrean who finds £10,000 to pay the gangs has a nine-in-ten chance of success — probably higher when you factor in appeals and the chance to disappear if it goes wrong. By no coincidence, Eritreans have now risen to the top of small-boat arrivals. Bad laws are driving desperate people straight into traffickers’ hands."
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/tories-are-the-insurgents-after-hotel-judgment-vx0xbb568
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/tories-are-the-insurgents-after-hotel-judgment-vx0xbb568
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
"Approval rates were updated this week: 98 per cent for Sudanese and Syrians, 87 per cent for Eritreans. Such figures serve as adverts, saying that an Eritrean who finds £10,000 to pay the gangs has a nine-in-ten chance of success — probably higher when you factor in appeals and the chance to disappear if it goes wrong. By no coincidence, Eritreans have now risen to the top of small-boat arrivals. Bad laws are driving desperate people straight into traffickers’ hands."And what happens here is that Eritreans club together in their village to fund one fit and healthy young one, who has the best chance to make it. When they do they succeed because, lol, they're from Eritrea, and they remit back their earnings to repay their investment (and more) and use the Right to Family Life to bring over their families as well.
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/tories-are-the-insurgents-after-hotel-judgment-vx0xbb568
The whole thing is bollocks. Utter utter bollocks.
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
Speaking of flags, saw this in Piccadilly Circus yesterday:

