The political case for a Tory/Reform pact is disastrous.Reform doing well but not too well and the Tories recovering ground from non-cakeist voters, but not too much, is exactly the formula required for Labour to get most seats on 28% of the vote. Whereas if one or other excels, Labour get massacred. Remember the 1980s and the SDP/LDs.I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.I think that’s right.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
The numerical case for a Tory/Reform pact is massive.
He snared you.OmgIn respect of what ?
Soak the rich, that’s what I say."A wealth tax makes no senseAnd? We’ve discussed this numerous times before - if you want a wealth tax you can only attach it to residential property where tax is a mess and it needs to be fixed
Matt Goodwin"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI_rXpGNfIE
ThisOmgIn respect of what ?
August and September 2008 Moris wereISTR a lovely opinion poll during Lab's nadir a few years back of Con 48, Lab 24, LD 12, UKIP or current equivalent 6, Green 3. I may be wrong.A nice mathematically pleasing result could still happenI think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.I think that’s right.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.
There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.
Ref 24
Con 24
Lab 24
LD 12
Green 6
Dried Fruit 6
SNP 3
Sub 50 seats is pretty unlikely, sub 100 relatively likely - id say maybe 50/50. Probably third place and if they are close enough to second place in seats no real crisis but a long road back.I agree. I think the total extinction of the Tories would rely on them losing the blue rinse brigade and the old money. I don’t think they will, so they are well placed to retain some sort of heartland.I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.Whilst sub samples are obviously not weighted, its worth keeping your eye on them to assist with rough seat ideas.
I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.
For example, if Reform are surging in NE, NW, Midlands, Yorkshire etc and Tories are holding up in South, East, London but tanking up north it makes a massive difference to both seats and Labour's prospects
Seriously - what about Martyn Percy? He was appallingly maltreated in the Christ Church safeguarding fiasco, to the extent that he is almost a martyr to the cause. He offended a lot of people who needed to be offended, and giving him the job might - just might - be the start of the "reformation" that the CofE needs.Yes. Nor was John Habgood, though he should have been. We would have been spared Mr Carey. What is going extinct is the central, liberal, theologically minded group who are also papabile for jobs like AoC.(Harries was never AoC - he was Oxford.)SFAICS the current Bishop of Chelmsford has not acted wrongly WRT the Tudor case. The bishop with questions to answer is the former one, now Archbishop of York.Well David Tudor is going to rule the Bishoo of Chelmsford out,She isn't even a bishop, there are plenty of good candidates like the Bishop of Chelmsford and Bishop of Salisbury for the roleThe way this country is going she'll probably end up as Archbishop of Canterbury. No-one wants that role it seems.I would be amazed if anyone was prosecuted.The longer that's delayed, the less likely any successful prosecution.It's shocking that there have not been trials for attempting to pervert the course of justice already. Not remotely surprising, of course, but shocking.Big day today in the Horizon enquiry when the judge rules on compensation:Actually, justice will take even longer (first trials c.2028... if there are any).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g267xe3y6o
Hope @Cyclefree is well enough to watch after all her work on it.
It's just a real shame that it's going to take so long to bring some of the actual criminals involved to justice, as that's a separate report.
The second report will talk about blame, but probably no more than that.
2028, and counting...
At least Pauline Vennells won’t become Bishop of London.
I suspect it’s Salisbury or Newcastle simply because everyone else is tainted
Newcastle is, IMHO, out of the runing sadly as she has said the right thing slightly too often. I hope I am wrong. She would be the best around.
Anyone looking for a proper AoC in the tradition of Richard Harries, Michael Ramsey, John Habgood or Rowan Williams is going to be disappointed. The species is going extinct.
There is not a single bishop on the bench who have written or could write an outstanding book on a New Testament or theological subject. (I am happy to be proved wrong).
Doctors pay was undoubtedly substantially eroded over the last 15-20 years, as was university academics. You can try to go back to the situation in 2007, say, or you can say that the world has changed, suck it up. However if you do the latter an awful lot of skilled medics discover that Aus and NZ are very welcoming...It looks like the same grievance as they had last time.Doctors have voted for strike action lolWhat's their grievance now?
Who would have thought getting an agreement to discuss about getting an agreement might go a bit South when dealing with the Donald.Just been announced on Sky business, so not just Guidohttps://x.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1942511910827536561?s=19Thank you.
Saving the steel industry latest
Guido is a God and not at all unreliable.