Best Of

I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.

I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.

I think that’s right.

I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.

There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.

Reform doing well but not too well and the Tories recovering ground from non-cakeist voters, but not too much, is exactly the formula required for Labour to get most seats on 28% of the vote. Whereas if one or other excels, Labour get massacred. Remember the 1980s and the SDP/LDs.

The numerical case for a Tory/Reform pact is massive.

I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.

I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.

I think that’s right.

I do think, despite the fact they’re languishing in a terrible position in the polls, there are factors at play that could start to spur a modest Tory recovery. I don’t know if it’s quite enough to win an election (probably, at this stage, not) but potentially enough to avoid being relegated to minor party status.

There are I think enough voters who understand that there are tough decisions to be made who also realise that the Labour Party are increasingly unlikely to make them, and Reform’s promises are cakeist. The Tories are, despite their cataclysmic last spell in government, a party that can probably try and sell that angle. As I say, do I think it’s a GE-winning message? Probably not. But it might be enough to entice back some of the middle England vote.

A nice mathematically pleasing result could still happen

Ref 24
Con 24
Lab 24
LD 12
Green 6
Dried Fruit 6
SNP 3

ISTR a lovely opinion poll during Lab's nadir a few years back of Con 48, Lab 24, LD 12, UKIP or current equivalent 6, Green 3. I may be wrong.

I think we’re starting to see polling numbers that will utterly break seat modelling. I’m going to be very nervous of any bets on seat numbers if they stick until polling day, especially noting the non-voters in the Reform samples.

I also think the right Tory leader change and the inevitable Reform scandal, could change a lot.

Whilst sub samples are obviously not weighted, its worth keeping your eye on them to assist with rough seat ideas.
For example, if Reform are surging in NE, NW, Midlands, Yorkshire etc and Tories are holding up in South, East, London but tanking up north it makes a massive difference to both seats and Labour's prospects

I agree. I think the total extinction of the Tories would rely on them losing the blue rinse brigade and the old money. I don’t think they will, so they are well placed to retain some sort of heartland.

Big day today in the Horizon enquiry when the judge rules on compensation:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g267xe3y6o

Hope @Cyclefree is well enough to watch after all her work on it.

It's just a real shame that it's going to take so long to bring some of the actual criminals involved to justice, as that's a separate report.

Actually, justice will take even longer (first trials c.2028... if there are any).

The second report will talk about blame, but probably no more than that.

It's shocking that there have not been trials for attempting to pervert the course of justice already. Not remotely surprising, of course, but shocking.

The longer that's delayed, the less likely any successful prosecution.
2028, and counting...

I would be amazed if anyone was prosecuted.

At least Pauline Vennells won’t become Bishop of London.

The way this country is going she'll probably end up as Archbishop of Canterbury. No-one wants that role it seems.

She isn't even a bishop, there are plenty of good candidates like the Bishop of Chelmsford and Bishop of Salisbury for the role

Well David Tudor is going to rule the Bishoo of Chelmsford out,

I suspect it’s Salisbury or Newcastle simply because everyone else is tainted

SFAICS the current Bishop of Chelmsford has not acted wrongly WRT the Tudor case. The bishop with questions to answer is the former one, now Archbishop of York.

Newcastle is, IMHO, out of the runing sadly as she has said the right thing slightly too often. I hope I am wrong. She would be the best around.

Anyone looking for a proper AoC in the tradition of Richard Harries, Michael Ramsey, John Habgood or Rowan Williams is going to be disappointed. The species is going extinct.

(Harries was never AoC - he was Oxford.)

Yes. Nor was John Habgood, though he should have been. We would have been spared Mr Carey. What is going extinct is the central, liberal, theologically minded group who are also papabile for jobs like AoC.

There is not a single bishop on the bench who have written or could write an outstanding book on a New Testament or theological subject. (I am happy to be proved wrong).