Best Of
Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Phew that is a relief. I'm not feeling so stupid now. All over my head. I didn't even have a vague sense re Charlie Kirk.I’m having a day of ignorance the last 24 hours. I didn’t know who Charlie Kirk was save a vague sense he was someone American, I’d no idea what the NTA was until this post, and I’ve never heard of Mollie Mae.From the NTA’s.An award show that is voted for by ITV viewers giving a number of awards to ITV programs and presenters - it's not a surprise.
This is the great British Public for you.
Freddie Flintoff - Nearly Died
Rob Burrow - Died
Strictly Amy - Living with cancer
Molly Mae - Split up with her boyfriend
Which one wins the NTA… absolute bollocks #ntaawards
https://x.com/jord9393/status/1965884420617023623?s=61
Also Molly Mae's show was a lighter touch with a large audience than the other programs.

1
Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
On a point of accuracy Jo Moore, the advisor who said "a good day to bury bad news", wasn't an advisor to Starmer's predecessor, Tony Blair. She was an advisor to the Transport Secretary, Stephen Byers.Given what’s come out in the last 24 hours, Mandy’s got no chance of holding on to that position.Every few years the ratchet moves a further notch, and we adopt yet more American ways of doing things. Not a good direction of travel.I don't think so. It looks like Phillipson vs Powell, but Phillipson has a lot of backbench support too.Starmer is desperately trying to stabilise the ship, burt if Philipson wins he will have an element of muttering on the backbenches of a fix, if he loses he probably has to live with a thorn in his side. But does he care ? Probably beyond that now.So today we find out how fixed the Labour DL contest has become.Would be ironic if DL means that some up and coming keen type misses out on the top job if Starmer loses it…
It's notable that Thornberry and Ribero-Addy got just a handful of nominations, and those from the usual suspects. It doesn't look like either a major fight or a stitch up.
The Mandleson affair was very foolish of Starmer. I posted here on the folly of appointing him at the time. It was a job for a career diplomat who has been trained for it. This isn't America where ambassadorships are handed out as payback for political favours.
And now BBC pundits saying they can’t sack Mandelson because it might upset Trump. Incredible.
Trump very clearly and publicly disassociated himself from Epstein before his first conviction, and is very unlikely to want to have anything to do with someone who’s just been exposed as a good friend and supporter well after he was imprisoned.
Starmer might want to see this, as his predecessor’s advisor once said, as a good day to bury bad news in the US.
Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Indeed. Someone is shot dead in the USA roughly every ten minutes (about half are suicides involving guns, tbf), and someone is shot dead by a police officer in the USA roughly every eight hours.Obama with a classy statement on the death of Kirk, CObama:
https://x.com/barackobama/status/1965889591090753651?s=61
We don’t yet know what motivated the person who shot and killed Charlie Kirk, but this kind of despicable violence has no place in our democracy. Michelle and I will be praying for Charlie’s family tonight, especially his wife Erika and their two young children.
I just find this weird.
The USA is an endemically violent country where they kill nearly 100k people per annum with their guns and their cars, including scores killed in school shootings.
Of course violence has a place in US democracy, because that is the society they chose to create. I don't want it to have a place, but Trump is deliberately seeking to create further a culture of violence and conflict - starting with his defence of hundreds of millions of guns loose in the society, never mind his animation of the violent attack on Congress, and the rest.
If I'm being straightforward, I'd say that Kirk reaped the whirlwind his own politics had helped seed.
To have public figures - even Obama - retreating into delusional schmaltz is not exactly going to help fix it. MSNBC have already sacked two reporters who went a bit too close to the bone - Matthew Dowd.
What are the chances that Trump will respond with a sensible clampdown on gun ownership??

1
Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Good discussion on Today in the 6.30 ish business segment re the Merck pull-out from the UK. Highlights were that both guests (one a pharma analyst and the other was Sir Nigel Wilson, Life Sciences Industrial Strategy Implementation Board and is a member of the Science and Innovation Council.Encourage drug companies to invest in the UK by making drugs more expensive to the NHS, isn’t quite as good of an argument as he thinks it is.
Wilson said that he had spoken to Reeves last night at the FT drinks and is certain she understands the problem and has plans. He was remarkably comfortable with how easy it will be to encourage pension funds etc to invest in UK pharma/research by pulling a few levers.
Both were however also adamant that the UK needs to fix its pricing model with pharma companies as it’s going to drive them all away. Apparently we need to get the rebate the gov gets down to single figure % as it’s 23% currently and vastly higher than any other countries. This in itself I guess will cause other problems as it’s money I would assume goes back into the NHS which needs replacing.
The other problem with the high rebate was that a lot of drug companies were not releasing new drugs to the UK because the cost benefit wasn’t worth it for them and so UK patients are missing out.
This needs much more discussion by the likes of the opposition in order to make sure Reeves has to do something to fix it in the autumn budget. Maybe if Mandy quits, as he should, politicians could spend their time in this instead. Boring for us but ultimately better.
As someone who supports a more diversified healthcare system in general, possibly the single biggest advantage of the NHS structure is the ability to negotiate in bulk with key suppliers.

3
Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Given what’s come out in the last 24 hours, Mandy’s got no chance of holding on to that position.Every few years the ratchet moves a further notch, and we adopt yet more American ways of doing things. Not a good direction of travel.I don't think so. It looks like Phillipson vs Powell, but Phillipson has a lot of backbench support too.Starmer is desperately trying to stabilise the ship, burt if Philipson wins he will have an element of muttering on the backbenches of a fix, if he loses he probably has to live with a thorn in his side. But does he care ? Probably beyond that now.So today we find out how fixed the Labour DL contest has become.Would be ironic if DL means that some up and coming keen type misses out on the top job if Starmer loses it…
It's notable that Thornberry and Ribero-Addy got just a handful of nominations, and those from the usual suspects. It doesn't look like either a major fight or a stitch up.
The Mandleson affair was very foolish of Starmer. I posted here on the folly of appointing him at the time. It was a job for a career diplomat who has been trained for it. This isn't America where ambassadorships are handed out as payback for political favours.
And now BBC pundits saying they can’t sack Mandelson because it might upset Trump. Incredible.
Trump very clearly and publicly disassociated himself from Epstein before his first conviction, and is very unlikely to want to have anything to do with someone who’s just been exposed as a good friend and supporter well after he was imprisoned.
Starmer might want to see this, as his predecessor’s advisor once said, as a good day to bury bad news in the US.

2
Re: A damning indictment on our politicians – politicalbetting.com
Evening, PB. Larry Ellison has replaced Elon Musk as the world's richest man. Good news.Had not has.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2rp992y88o
Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Good discussion on Today in the 6.30 ish business segment re the Merck pull-out from the UK. Highlights were that both guests (one a pharma analyst and the other was Sir Nigel Wilson, Life Sciences Industrial Strategy Implementation Board and is a member of the Science and Innovation Council.
Wilson said that he had spoken to Reeves last night at the FT drinks and is certain she understands the problem and has plans. He was remarkably comfortable with how easy it will be to encourage pension funds etc to invest in UK pharma/research by pulling a few levers.
Both were however also adamant that the UK needs to fix its pricing model with pharma companies as it’s going to drive them all away. Apparently we need to get the rebate the gov gets down to single figure % as it’s 23% currently and vastly higher than any other countries. This in itself I guess will cause other problems as it’s money I would assume goes back into the NHS which needs replacing.
The other problem with the high rebate was that a lot of drug companies were not releasing new drugs to the UK because the cost benefit wasn’t worth it for them and so UK patients are missing out.
This needs much more discussion by the likes of the opposition in order to make sure Reeves has to do something to fix it in the autumn budget. Maybe if Mandy quits, as he should, politicians could spend their time in this instead. Boring for us but ultimately better.
Wilson said that he had spoken to Reeves last night at the FT drinks and is certain she understands the problem and has plans. He was remarkably comfortable with how easy it will be to encourage pension funds etc to invest in UK pharma/research by pulling a few levers.
Both were however also adamant that the UK needs to fix its pricing model with pharma companies as it’s going to drive them all away. Apparently we need to get the rebate the gov gets down to single figure % as it’s 23% currently and vastly higher than any other countries. This in itself I guess will cause other problems as it’s money I would assume goes back into the NHS which needs replacing.
The other problem with the high rebate was that a lot of drug companies were not releasing new drugs to the UK because the cost benefit wasn’t worth it for them and so UK patients are missing out.
This needs much more discussion by the likes of the opposition in order to make sure Reeves has to do something to fix it in the autumn budget. Maybe if Mandy quits, as he should, politicians could spend their time in this instead. Boring for us but ultimately better.

3
Re: A damning indictment on our politicians – politicalbetting.com
A reminder of what the president was advocating just last week .Interesting that the President was identifying himself with a grotesquely incompetent idiot.
“ I love the smell of napalm in the morning. You know, one time we had a hill bombed, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn't find one of 'em, not one stinkin' dink body. The smell, you know that gasoline smell? The whole hill. Smelled like... victory.”
Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Yesterday news broke Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, had passed away. He used to post on PB in the early days, advising Mike Smithson and other PBers to focus on the share of the vote for the parties and not to fixate on the lead.

1
Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Thankfully there are no politicians that ALWAYS lack the right words for the occasion.Obama with a classy statement on the death of Kirk, CClassy indeed. I adore the Joan Baez song, "The President sang amazing grace". https://www.bing.com/search?qs=NM&pq=and+the+president+sang+ama&sk=CSYN1&sc=14-26&pglt=297&q=the+president+sang+amazing+grace&cvid=0ac3c9ddc0fe4cf98a22c773bc08c23b&gs_lcrp=EgRlZGdlKgYIARAAGEAyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQABhAMgYIAhAAGEAyBggDEAAYQDIGCAQQABhAMgYIBRAAGEAyBggGEAAYQDIGCAcQABhAMgYICBAAGEDSAQkxNjMyOWowajGoAgCwAgA&FORM=ANNTA1&adppc=EDGEESS&PC=HCTS
https://x.com/barackobama/status/1965889591090753651?s=61
But no words could say what must be said
For all the living and the dead
So on that day and in that place
The President sang Amazing Grace
The President sang Amazing Grace
He was not a brilliant administrator, he didn't get nearly enough done but he never seemed to lack the right words for the occasion.
Oh.
'For years, those on the radical left have compared wonderful Americans like Charlie to Nazis and the world’s worst mass murderers and criminals. This kind of rhetoric is directly responsible for the terrorism that we’re seeing in our country today, and it must stop right now.'