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Well, I don't quite share the gloom and doom felt by most others on here on Labour's prospects, despite the admittedly shaky start. It's very early days, and those hoping for an economic renaissance after 5 months or so are not being realistic - let's see where we are in, say, 2027.

Other than the economy, two other key metrics on which the government will be judged are NHS performance and legal/illegal immigration. On both these, I reckon early indicators are more promising. I think NHS waiting lists will fall quite quickly over the next two years. Legal migration will decline (I know, mainly because of actions taken by the previous government), and I judge some progress will be made on reducing small boat crossings: already, deportations of illegal migrants are up a fair bit, and combined with other stuff being done this will have a deterrent effect.

All to play for, I reckon, despite most people talking Britain down currently. There's still plenty of time for Starmer et al to under-promise and over-deliver. He's quite happy to eschew early popularity to pave the way for future dividends - nobody could accuse the government of taking easy decisions to court opinion poll popularity in its early days.

On your last paragraph the biggest culprits for talking Britain down were Starmer and Reeves who actually caused the loss of confidence by business

Labour have been truely bad for business. Every business owner I've spoken to (and there's been a few) have said that labour have done nothing for business and nothing for growth.

I know it would have been even less popular, but would employee NI (Or better yet income tax) have been better (in the round) to whack the tax onto as the impact would have been (On it's own) deflationary (Less money in the economy) rather than inflationary (Businesses need to put prices up due to increased costs) ?

I get the feeling employer NI aside from the electoral benefit of not giving people a direct pay cut is actually the worst way economically to raise more tax...

Not sure how much it would have raised but I would have preferred to see NI extended to all work - particularly those over retirement age who can still work without paying NI - and some way found to add it to unearned income as well.

Fold NI into Income tax. This will save a fortune in administration as well.

This all depends on breaking the link between NI and qualification for the state pension.

You don't need to pay any NI to qualify for the state pension in a year.

You simply amend the "deemed paid" flag to people's record.

e.g.

1997 to 1998 Full year View details
You have contributions from

National Insurance credits: 53 weeks

These may have been added to your record if you were ill/disabled, unemployed, caring for someone full-time or on jury service.

Labour have only been in power for 140 days but there’s a palpable sense of disappointment - not just on here but in organs like the FT which reflect, if not shape, global business opinion.

Reeves gave a great Mais Lecture at the beginning of this year, and there’s no shortage of what I might New Model Growthers floating around the Labour tent. As I’ve posted before, what is missing is an overall sense of strategy - a reason to believe.

Something has gone very wrong.
I’m not sure Starmer has the imagination to course-correct.

We await the second coming of Maggie. Starmer cannot hold.

She out in place some of the problems we're grappling with now.
"Another Maggie" is not the answer.

"Another Maggie" in the sense of someone with the conviction and determination required to break the status quo, rather than someone who will bring in a caricature of her policies.

Caricature is a nice spin.

One of the many reasons Britain is skint is because the Chancellor spends all day writing subsidy cheques to foreign companies.
Direct result of actual Thatcherism.

Labour have been truely bad for business. Every business owner I've spoken to (and there's been a few) have said that labour have done nothing for business and nothing for growth.

I know it would have been even less popular, but would employee NI (Or better yet income tax) have been better (in the round) to whack the tax onto as the impact would have been (On it's own) deflationary (Less money in the economy) rather than inflationary (Businesses need to put prices up due to increased costs) ?

I get the feeling employer NI aside from the electoral benefit of not giving people a direct pay cut is actually the worst way economically to raise more tax...

Not sure how much it would have raised but I would have preferred to see NI extended to all work - particularly those over retirement age who can still work without paying NI - and some way found to add it to unearned income as well.

Fold NI into Income tax. This will save a fortune in administration as well.

This all depends on breaking the link between NI and qualification for the state pension.

Paying income tax becomes the qualification.

Make the state pension and unemployment/disability benefit the same thing. Entitlement comes from inability to work, not age, and entitlement through “paying in” goes away. Phase in from one year after I am due to claim my various pensions.

Labour have been truely bad for business. Every business owner I've spoken to (and there's been a few) have said that labour have done nothing for business and nothing for growth.

I know it would have been even less popular, but would employee NI (Or better yet income tax) have been better (in the round) to whack the tax onto as the impact would have been (On it's own) deflationary (Less money in the economy) rather than inflationary (Businesses need to put prices up due to increased costs) ?

I get the feeling employer NI aside from the electoral benefit of not giving people a direct pay cut is actually the worst way economically to raise more tax...

Not sure how much it would have raised but I would have preferred to see NI extended to all work - particularly those over retirement age who can still work without paying NI - and some way found to add it to unearned income as well.

Fold NI into Income tax. This will save a fortune in administration as well.

This all depends on breaking the link between NI and qualification for the state pension.

Paying income tax becomes the qualification.

That would be bad news for humble and working class people who receive income via dividends etc.

Who could Starmer go for as new chancellor ?

Cooper looks the only serious alternative to my eyes tbh.

Darren Jones would be my pick.

Too tied in with Reeves I reckon, was hopeless last time I heard him on the morning round.

Starmer would cop a massive loss of authority from firing Reeves tho.

He's not going to fire Reeves!

She’s polling worse than Starmer!

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/11/19/a-promising-start-for-kemi-badenoch/

She wont be CoE by next GE is my prediction. Possibly gone as soon as next May's reshuffle.

Chancellor getting sacked after a poorly received first budget? Sounds a bit Kwasi!