Best Of
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
Well I hope they let me back in when I return from the US in a few weeks....I am surprised the US immigration haven't asked a lot more questions about my extended trip to China.I’ve been banned from the UK. I tried to get on a flight to London to attend SXSW London and give a speech at Oxford. I’ve been banned for criticizing Israel. Are we free anymore? This is oppression of Western citizens by our own governments on behalf of a different country!Gosh.
https://x.com/cenkuygur/status/2061205610327408773?s=20
I thought you meant you.
Re: MAGA is here to stay – politicalbetting.com
Lovely obituary for Marion Miliband in the Jewish News.What a life. It surprises me with a family history like that that her sons have not had more to say about recent antisemitism in the UK.
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/inspirational-mother-of-ed-and-david-miliband-marion-dies-aged-91/
DavidL
1
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
Do the union political donations split in any way close to a similar proportion?As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.comNEW: Polling of public sector union members in @thetimes Westminster voting intention, change shown on 2024REF 28 (+12)LAB 28 (-20)CON 13 (-3)GRN 11 (+6)LDEM 8 (-2)14th-19th May 2026, representative sample of 1,002 public sector union membershttps://t.co/dK69yzUl7C
Re: MAGA is here to stay – politicalbetting.com
Thank youIIRC, Lord Ashcroft Polls is not a member of the BPC, because they only do polls for one client (among other things).I know you do not like Ashcroft polls but it is quoted along with all the other polls on wiki as followsMake what you will of this poll by AshcroftIgnore.
🚨 NEW Westminster Voting Intention
Con: 21% (+1)
Ref: 21% (-)
Lab: 19% (+1)
Grn: 18% (-2)
Lib: 11% (-)
@LordAPolls
21-26 May (+/- vs 27 Apr)
21-26 May - Lord Ashcroft polls - Mail on Sunday - GB 5,263 sample size
Is it recognised by BPC ?
I just see it as one poll and to be fair apart from Reform not far off trend
They use BPC members to do field work etc, but their methodology is their own.
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
The Colombian election is not going well.
With most of the votes already counted (polls closed 1.5 hours ago) the far right candidate De La Espriella is ahead. With 44% to the Ledt's Cepeda with 41%. The other right wing candidate got only 7%. Adding the two rught candidates together they are 10% ahead.
There will be a second round in 2 weeks. Last time in 2022 the left candudate improved his vote by 10% in the second round. However it seems unlikely that can be repeated as the right wing independent candidate was old and corrupt - by 2024 he had been sentenced to house imprisonment and then died.
The betting suggests about 80% chance the right will win and that seems correct. De La Espriella makes Nigel Farage look like a centrist.
With most of the votes already counted (polls closed 1.5 hours ago) the far right candidate De La Espriella is ahead. With 44% to the Ledt's Cepeda with 41%. The other right wing candidate got only 7%. Adding the two rught candidates together they are 10% ahead.
There will be a second round in 2 weeks. Last time in 2022 the left candudate improved his vote by 10% in the second round. However it seems unlikely that can be repeated as the right wing independent candidate was old and corrupt - by 2024 he had been sentenced to house imprisonment and then died.
The betting suggests about 80% chance the right will win and that seems correct. De La Espriella makes Nigel Farage look like a centrist.
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
Unbelievable that the Labour Party aren't trying to appeal to them with views like that, what are they thinking?It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.That isn't really true, 51% of Reform voters think the government taxes too much and spends too much on public services and 60% think welfare benefits are too generous.
The plates are shifting.
Even if not as high as the 89% who think migrants coming to the United Kingdom across the English Channel should all be immediately removed from the United Kingdom and prevented from ever returning. The 77% who back restoration of the death penalty for some crimes, the 78% who think multiculturalism has made Britain worse and the 69% who think people in Britain should not be legally able to change their gender
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/49887-what-do-reform-uk-voters-believe
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
No, it is not.Mass deportation is arguably a lefty economic policy that directly benefits them.Pretty clear reason as to why a Reform's coalition will quickly fall apart once in power. Can't please both WWC who want lefty economic policies and ex-Tories living in the Shires who want spending cuts and lower taxes.It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.If you are far left economically then voting for Tice, Yosef and co is a bloody stretch.
The plates are shifting.
They want Dubai on Thames with flat rate, very low tax and fuck all else.
Lump of labour is a fallacy.
That applies just as much to you as it does anyone claiming we need immigration.
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
There is a certain belief that it is welfare for others that is the problem, which doesn't match very well with the major grievance in the header being the means testing of WFA.It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.That isn't really true, 51% of Reform voters think the government taxes too much and spends too much on public services and 60% think welfare benefits are too generous.
The plates are shifting.
Even if not as high as the 89% who think migrants coming to the United Kingdom across the English Channel should all be immediately removed from the United Kingdom and prevented from ever returning. The 77% who back restoration of the death penalty for some crimes, the 78% who think multiculturalism has made Britain worse and the 69% who think people in Britain should not be legally able to change their gender
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/49887-what-do-reform-uk-voters-believe
Union members may also not be very keen on Reform's "Great Repeal Bill" which promises to gut rights of workers, and repeal of the Equalities Act. Mind you when even Reform candidates don't know this, why should we expect the voters to know?
https://bsky.app/profile/bestforbritain.org/post/3mn3cxog2rg2q
Foxy
3
Re: MAGA is here to stay – politicalbetting.com
Quite. I thought Starmer would be fairly poor, based mainly on his instincts over covid (playing politics by demanding ever more lockdown when it clearly wasn't in the national interest), but even I had a surge of optimism when they promised no increases Income tax or NI, and thought they might not be as disastrous as Labour governments usually are, and I also thought they might be vaguely competent.Before the 24 election Chef Tom Kerridge signed an open letter endorsing a prospective Labour govt.Not sure any of us - even those who didn't vote for Starmer - were aware of just how disastrous his Government was going to be for small and medium businesses. If the Tories had had a crystal ball and had predicted this level of vindictive incompetence we would all have accused them of jumping the shark.
Fast forward nearly two years and it’s worlds smallest violin time. He got what he wanted. Surely he can live with it.
‘ Kerridge, whose site, The Hand & Flowers, was the first gastropub in the UK to be awarded two Michelin stars, said most of his businesses were ‘sat still or losing money’ as his margins have been ‘completely eroded’ by Government hikes.’
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-15858811/Top-chefs-call-VAT-cut-hospitality-industry-battles-survival.html
Turns out my initial instinct (there is virtually no know form of government worse for the country than a Labour government) was right first time.
theProle
1
Re: MAGA is here to stay – politicalbetting.com
If I were tell you my ability to put up a shelf is only matched by my ability to be modest or subtle that tells how crap I am at this kind of work.I think everyone should be able to put up a shelf or patch a whole in a garment, that kind of household task. I'm better at the former than the latter. School taught us to use sewing machines, but not so much needle and thread.My wife is a woman of many and extraordinary talents.You don't have household staff for this?
However, reeling in a 45m extension cable is so not one of them....
"I can help!"
"NO! Go at least 60m away and let me swear - a lot - as I try to work out what the hell you have done..."
Pro tip, be crap at manual labour and none of your family or friends will ask you to do anything like this.
