Best Of

Scotland was probably after London one of the better results for the Tories in May. Although the Scottish Tories still lost MSPs whereas London Tories made net gains of council seats, they held most of their Holyrood constituencies. Whereas in provincial England outside London lots of Tory councillors lost their seats particularly to Reform and Scottish Tories got a higher voteshare in the Holyrood vote than Welsh Tories did in the Senedd.

Kemi also still has a reasonable 20% favourable rating in Scotland. The Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine Holyrood seat which largely overlaps with the Aberdeen South Westminster seat was also one of a minority of constituencies in Scotland where the Tories beat Reform and were still in the top 2 against the SNP. Indeed the Tories were just 4% behind the SNP so if they squeeze the 17% who voted Reform then they could beat the SNP and win the seat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_Deeside_and_North_Kincardine

Arbroath is the type of seat Labour might win back if Burnham wins the Makerfield by election and replaces Starmer as Labour leader and PM but it won't while Starmer remains PM which he still will be when the by elections are held

How is going from 31 MSPs to 12 in Scotland one of the Tories' "better results"?

As most of those were list seats going Reform, in terms of FPTP seats the Tories only lost 1 Holyrood constituency seat, Eastwood. As I said the Tories also got a higher voteshare in Scotland than in Wales.

In London the Tories even made net gains on FPTP council seats despite significant loss of council seats elsewhere in England.

So ironically the Kemi Tories are now performing best in Remain areas like London and Scotland because Reform are weaker there and where their opponents are Labour or the SNP not the LDs, where they are collapsing is in strong Leave areas Boris won which are electing Reform

The Conservative performance in London is one of those double edged swords.

Yes, the Conservatives did well against Labour in a number of Boroughs (Wandsworth, Westminster, Harrow, Hounslow, Brent, Barnet and Enfield to name but seven) and held off Reform in Bromley and Bexley but let's not forget the big losses to Reform in Havering (23) and to the LDs in Sutton (20) and the fact is there are now 10 Boroughs with no Conservative representation (up from 7).

Havering is more Greater Essex than London and Sutton more Greater Surrey than London.

Overall the London results were very good, indeed the Tories voteshare in London was slightly higher in May than it was in GB overall

Come on, are you now trying to argue "London" is only the bits where the Conservatives do well?

Shall we try arguing Bromley is "Greater Kent"?

What of those areas of London now bereft of Conservative Councillors such as Newham, Southwark, Haringey, Barking, Lambeth and Lewisham or are you going to try and tell me they aren't part of London either?

As for the vote share, five perecent down on 2022 but similaer to the 2024 GE number so yes, not as bad as in other parts of the country.

Bromley is arguably Greater Kent, indeed it was part of Kent until 1965. The Tories have not had even 1 MP in any of the 6 areas you mention this century so they aren't anywhere near as relevant to the Tories as gains in Westminster, Wandsworth, Hillingdon, Enfield and Barnet were

Whereas in Sutton, Richmond, Kingston and Havering, the Conservatives have had MPs until recently and all they have left is Julia Lopez clinging on by her fingertips in Hornchurch.

The first 3 more Greater Surrey than London, the LDs are nowhere outside SW London in the capital really. Havering as I said basically Greater Essex

Not wishing to be pedantic but the modern London Borough of Richmond consists of the former Municipal Borough of Richmond and the Municipal Borough of Barnes which were indeed part of Surrey until 1965 and the Municipal Borough of Twickenham which was part of Middlesex.

Also part of Greater Middlesex were Enfield, Hillingdon and Harrow or doesn't that count?

Tonight's Opinium

Badenoch gave best response on Henry Nowak case according to the public, Nigel Farage the worst

Following the release of bodycam footage relating to the murder of Henry Nowak, voters are most likely to approve of Kemi Badenoch’s response to the case.

Badenoch records a net approval score of +12 on her handling of the issue. Ed Davey is marginally positive, while Keir Starmer, Zack Polanski and Nigel Farage all receive net negative ratings. Farage receives the weakest assessment overall, with more respondents disapproving than approving of his response.

“For all the debate sparked by Tony Blair and the ‘hot essay summer’, the public still lean towards saying he was a bad rather than a good prime minister. Perhaps more worrying for Labour, they also struggle to see any of the party’s current leadership contenders as offering a markedly better alternative.”

Full details of polling

https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/voting-intention-3rd-june-2026/

Kemi getting it right again.

As I said the other day.

Not part of the plan:

https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/2063335116101898629

@OpiniumResearch
🚨 Latest Opinium @ObserverUK poll 🚨

As the Makerfield by-election campaign continues, Reform UK has risen to 29%. This is their highest vote share in three months.

➡️REF 29%
🌹LAB 20%
🌳CON 17%
🌍GRN 14%
🔶LD 11%

In the actual Makerfield polls though Burnham leads and the hypothetical polls show a Burnham led Labour would get a bounce which could see them take a small lead

This 20% for Labour already has a Burnham effect in it. That’s the only reason they're not polling lower than the Tories.

It doesn't really, Starmer is still PM and Labour leader and unless and until Burnham returns as an MP and leads Labour any Burnham bounce will be negligible

You'd have to be living under a rock not to know that Starmer is on his last legs.

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Andy_JS said:
Can we please continue to talk about why Paul Quinn hasn't received a longer sentence after allowing Andrew Malkinson to spend 17 years in prison?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfbLCXIaZBo
Or should we talk about why Malkinson was not released for more than 12 years after DNA evidence exonerated him? Or why the CCRC turned him down twice. Or even how he came to be wrongly convicted in the first place.


I did some research into this and read the various reports. So if there's any interest, happy to share.

Please do share Cyclefree.

I am just bewildered that the CCRC turned the case down twice after the DNA evidence was available. How could they possibly have thought it was a safe conviction after that?

The judicial system has a deep seated fear of acknowledging the system is capable of error. "We do not err. We cannot err. If we are fallible - the system collapses. Regardless of the cost to poor individuals, we have to hold the line."

As evidenced by Lord Denning. The former Master of the Rolls Denning’s was involved in 1980, with the still-incarcerated Birmingham Six’s civil claim against the police. Dismissing the case, he said:

“Just consider the course of events if their action were to proceed to trial… If the six men failed it would mean that much time and money and worry would have been expended by many people to no good purpose. If they won, it would mean that the police were guilty of perjury; that they were guilty of violence and threats; that the confessions were involuntary and improperly admitted in evidence; and that the convictions were erroneous… That was such an appalling vista that every sensible person would say, ‘It cannot be right that these actions should go any further’.”

Denning did many good things and wrote many fine judgments. That was most certainly not one of them.

(Snip).
So I am told by legal types.

To this layman it seems hard to believe that someone so confused about the concepts of innocence and guilt could ever have become a lawyer never mind be such an eminent judge.

Tonight's Opinium

Badenoch gave best response on Henry Nowak case according to the public, Nigel Farage the worst

Following the release of bodycam footage relating to the murder of Henry Nowak, voters are most likely to approve of Kemi Badenoch’s response to the case.

Badenoch records a net approval score of +12 on her handling of the issue. Ed Davey is marginally positive, while Keir Starmer, Zack Polanski and Nigel Farage all receive net negative ratings. Farage receives the weakest assessment overall, with more respondents disapproving than approving of his response.

“For all the debate sparked by Tony Blair and the ‘hot essay summer’, the public still lean towards saying he was a bad rather than a good prime minister. Perhaps more worrying for Labour, they also struggle to see any of the party’s current leadership contenders as offering a markedly better alternative.”

If Starmer knocked every door in the UK and handed over a few grand he'd still have a negative rating.

"Tell you what. I'll throw in an owl, yeah?"

Tonight's Opinium

Badenoch gave best response on Henry Nowak case according to the public, Nigel Farage the worst

Following the release of bodycam footage relating to the murder of Henry Nowak, voters are most likely to approve of Kemi Badenoch’s response to the case.

Badenoch records a net approval score of +12 on her handling of the issue. Ed Davey is marginally positive, while Keir Starmer, Zack Polanski and Nigel Farage all receive net negative ratings. Farage receives the weakest assessment overall, with more respondents disapproving than approving of his response.

“For all the debate sparked by Tony Blair and the ‘hot essay summer’, the public still lean towards saying he was a bad rather than a good prime minister. Perhaps more worrying for Labour, they also struggle to see any of the party’s current leadership contenders as offering a markedly better alternative.”

If Starmer knocked every door in the UK and handed over a few grand he'd still have a negative rating.