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We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.

In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.

No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.

@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.

In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.

How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.

The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).

I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.

Quick experiment for everyone to try.

Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.

Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.

Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.

Indeed. There genuinely aren't many places where the sorts of voters who the Conservatives think they are .
outnumber the sorts of voters who actually vote for them.

The Conservatives USP has always been about keeping Labour out. If someone else has come along who can do that better...

We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.

In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.

No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.

@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.

In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.

How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.

We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.

In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.

No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.

@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.

In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.

How do the LDs stand to benefit from tactical votes to keep out reform? Where are these LD/Reform battlegrounds? A couple in the SW maybe but the LD battles are almost all vs the Tories.

The foundation of any party's GE campaign should start with retaining their existing seats, so these are the first place to recruit anti-Reform tactical voters. Labour needs to consider this too, and that will require appealling to LD inclined voters (the disparity between LD local and national vote shows that a lot of LD inclined voters already tactically vote).

I think the Tories have the hardest job defending their existing seats, being squeezed by both the Reform party and the LDs. I think Tory seat numbers will fall further. They have no USP, just reflexive voters like BigG who have always voted Tory, and those are dwindling further.

Quick experiment for everyone to try.

Try to imagine a Generic Liberal Voter. Now do the same for a Generic Liberal Constituency. Easy-peasy.

Now do the same for Reform. There are a couple of possibilities, but that's fine. Same for Labour.

Now try the same for the Conservatives. What does a Conservative seat look like these days? It's certainly harder to picture, and it might be impossible.

Middle class, voted for Brexit but not massively so, often has a high Asian and Jewish population who are well off and despise Reform and socialism

I think that proves Stuart's point tbh, and is even reflected in polling data. Outer London is becoming a Conservative redoubt.

Catching up on last night's by-elections, I noticed this brief throwaway remark from Robert:

When I last looked at the numbers, more than 90% of council byelections this year were won either by Reform or the LibDems.

This is quite something, no? We tend to be knowingly diverted by council by-elections - we enjoy them, knowing that only nerds like us pay any attention and that they're not really things to read too much into. But a failure of LabCon on this scale needs remarking on. This feels increasingly like a proper realignment.

I'm really not sure how to feel about this. Whatever my reservations were about my place in the LabCon system, I feel like I'm going to be considerably more homeless in a RefLD model. I suspect this is true of quite a lot of people.

A 'LibDem system' would involve PR.
Which would be more likely to enable the existence of a party quite well tailored to your views.

Note that Farage also claims to support PR, though in his case I expect it's more a matter of past expediency that actual principle.

That's a fair point actually, and I think one which crossed my mind while I was considering the above, though clearly left it again by the time I clicked 'post comment'. That itself would be an even more seismic realignment - though it might change how I feel about it quite a lot.

Labour - growing the gangs, smashing the economy.

Whoops. Four more years of this, I'm not sure the nation can take it.

I note that the ONS have revised their growth figures for March though, doubling their previous estimate. Supports your long-held view that they are too pessimistic.

Typical government statisticians, talking down the Conservative Labour government .

From what I saw of the ONS when I worked in an adjacent government office (shared canteen) I think if I worked there I'd have a constantly pessimistic outlook too.

The way at the end of the quarter they'd come and tell people they'd revised upwards the canteen prices and you had to pay the balance was always most irritating

Who could have predicted that the Chancellor dramatically increasing taxes in April on employment could cause a recession with declines in April and May?

Apart from anyone who understands anything about Economics that is.

Do you know anyone on here who understands anything about Economics? Maybe Robert, but I can't think of anyone else.

I thought the whole point of economics was that no one really understand economics - 'the dismal science' etc.

Having said that, @OnlyLivingBoy might claim some expertise, earning his living as an economist, I think?

It used to be said that the questions set in University economics exams were always the same - only the answers were changed.