Best Of

Who could have predicted that the Chancellor dramatically increasing taxes in April on employment could cause a recession with declines in April and May?

Apart from anyone who understands anything about Economics that is.

Do you know anyone on here who understands anything about Economics? Maybe Robert, but I can't think of anyone else.

There are several. You haven't been paying attention

I discount anyone who believes the voodoo Laffer Curve works in a real world context. Only genuine economists need apply.

Your obsession with the Laffer Curve is weird.

All Economics is subject to debate on how it works in a real world context. Any economist worth their salt would always place caveats onw what they're saying.

The Laffer Curve is abused, but the theory is perfectly reasonable economics that does work in a real world context as well as any other theory.

There are countless examples retold here on a regular basis on how people change their behaviour at the cliff-edges especially. People who won't work more than 16 hours as if they do they'll lose benefits at such a rate they'll earn no extra money. People who won't earn beyond the 100k threshold as if they do they'll be worse off. Etc, etc, etc

What is that if not the Laffer Curve working on a real world context.

Anyone who says we should cut from 47% to 45% "because Laffer" doesn't have a clue what they're talking about. Anyone who says we should deal with the 100% cliff edges "because Laffer" does.

The general principle that tax can drive behaviour is perfectly sound. The nonsense is the "Curve" descriptor - which bestows a false sense of numerical certainty and precision to it.

Would you object to a 'Laffer correlation'? A 'Laffer vague trend'?

Ooh, Root 100. Hurray.

I find it a rather obvious and not massively useful insight. So I'd go for the Laffer Chestnut.

If its so obvious and not useful, why have we got so many awful cliff-edges in our tax system?

Why do so many get shocked that people don't want to work when facing an effective 100% tax rate?

Look, Bart, if you want to say it's the "Laffer Curve" that tells you having cliff-edges in the tax system is absurd and perverse, be my guest. I can't stop you doing that, and tbh it doesn't really matter.

Most of the arguments against the Laffer Curve are "Don't be mean to my idea to raise taxes"

If you change taxes, behaviour is altered. The function linking tax to behaviour is complex and probably discontinuous.

In many ways, this comes back to the instinct to try and control reality using linear functions. Despite reality being non-linear.

Might be an idea to ask people who model the interaction of coastal erosion and costal defences. And use this to plan things. Their shit works.

Indeed.

Curve means non-linear. That's all the word means, a line that is not straight, not linear.

It can be a simple curve, like x^2 or complex with many bends. The only thing it can't be is straight, as if its a straight line then there's no curve.

@kinabalu saying its not a curve means he's saying its not non-linear. Which means he's saying it is linear, which is false.

Thirty seconds too late, Bart. The tumble finished with the immediately preceding post.

No, it didn't.

You've been humbled and are withdrawing in disgrace by failing to comprehend what the word curve means.

Don't worry, you can withdraw. Just know that you are withdrawing in disgrace and that is why you'd be laughed out of any Maths classroom for not understanding the very meaning of the word curve.

Next time you want to converse on this, just educate yourself on what a 'curve' is. That might be useful, before looking to learn about Economics.

Disappointing news that the introduction of the "New Tube for London", the new tube trains for, initially, the Piccadilly Line, and then other lines, with air conditioning and walk-through carriages, has been delayed.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/piccadilly-line-new-trains-delayed-tfl-siemens-tube-london-underground-b1233989.html

Disappointing news that the introduction of the "New Tube for London", the new tube trains for, initially, the Piccadilly Line, and then other lines, with air conditioning and walk-through carriages, has been delayed.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/piccadilly-line-new-trains-delayed-tfl-siemens-tube-london-underground-b1233989.html

Disappointing news that the introduction of the "New Tube for London", the new tube trains for, initially, the Piccadilly Line, and then other lines, with air conditioning and walk-through carriages, has been delayed.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/piccadilly-line-new-trains-delayed-tfl-siemens-tube-london-underground-b1233989.html

Shame for London. Not a single tube train in Leeds lacks aircon.

Does Leeds have a metro system?

Alas, no. Nor a tram. Under multiple parties, across decades, there have been a joyous frittering of millions on consultations and plans that led nowhere.

Edited extra bit: anyway, I need to go and melt elsewhere.

Alas that global cooling isn't what we ended up with.

The NGT, which many thought stood for New Generation Transport, turned out to mean Never Gets Transport

Still, kept my wife in well paid work for a number of years working on various economic cases and evidence for appeals an counter appeals etc. Ill wind etc... But what a massive waste of money, for nothing.

Ok, Mr Clever Cloggs, if transport is so easy - what are the requirements for the Feng Shui for the emergency control panel for the spare coffee machine in the unused waiting room?

I shall have to refer that to my wife... Shall I enquire as to her hourly rate?

(As a lowly scientist, such real world concerns are beyond me)

Unite the Union votes to re examine its relationship with Labour over the Birmingham B)no dispute

The council cannot yield here without being on the hook for more cash, according to their leader.

Yet Labour are expanding the scope of equal pay law to third parties so other councils may be on the hook.

https://x.com/unitetheunion/status/1943627360378507527?s=61

The proposed £8,000 paycut for the binmen is abhorrent. It's a stark contrast to the Doctors' greed.

Disappointing news that the introduction of the "New Tube for London", the new tube trains for, initially, the Piccadilly Line, and then other lines, with air conditioning and walk-through carriages, has been delayed.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/piccadilly-line-new-trains-delayed-tfl-siemens-tube-london-underground-b1233989.html

Shame for London. Not a single tube train in Leeds lacks aircon.

Does Leeds have a metro system?

On topic, I don't see the Lib Dems changing their approach and that's probably the right thing to do. The question for them is, what to do in the event of a hung parliament next time. That's what they ought to be thinking about.

They should be absolutely fine in the areas they won in 2024. Those results in Woking last night show how comfortable they are.

The only thing that could cause problems for them is if the economy and public finances go properly tits up. That's how the Tories become a threat again.

I agree, but we have to see where the rubble lies after the next GE, as we did in 2010.

Its very difficult to prop up a government that has just lost its majority, as clearly they have been rejected by the voters. There's obviously no way that LDs would support a Farage government.

So, if there is a majority government then LDs are on the opposition benches. If NOC we should stay there too, voting on a bill by bill basis on whatever minority government is formed.

That's an interesting point re Labour losing it's majority. Say the result was something like:

Lab - 29% - 301 seats
Reform - 24% - 169 seats
Con - 20% - 71 seats
Lib Dem - 13% - 65 seats

Would it not be acceptable for the Lib Dems to go into power with Labour? The result wouldn't be all that different to 2024.