Best Of

Good thread.

I know it's fashionable to talk Europe down these days.

But Europe’s latent power *potential* and strategic options are arguably bigger today than they probably have been at any point since 1945.

Let me explain...
https://x.com/benbawan/status/2013036765813125490

A key Trump-Putin talking point is that Russia is fucking massive and full of people and wins wars and will win again and europe is finished.

Despite failing to make much progress in Ukraine.

The kill ratio in recent weeks has been of the order of Ukraine 1:27 Russia. This, together with the come end of Kadyrovtsi rule in Chenchnya is going to put even more pressure on the Putin regime. Indeed it is Trump that is giving the Siloviki enough hope to ensure they wont agree any deal. That together with the utter incompetence of thecUS response to the crackdown has given America defeat when they could have seen off their enemies in both Rissia and Iran.
Instead Trump is destroying NATO and leading his economy towards a meltdown that will make the GFC look mild. The massive damage he has already caused to Europe should not be forgotten. So if Bessent thinks the EU should avoid responding to the outrageous threats he is going to be disappointed. The debt sword of Damocles is getting more dangerous by the minute.

I've only seen the 1:27 ratio reported in relation to the Kupiansk counterattack. Even if it is true there, it likely only applied to one phase of that counterattack, and there's no way it applies to the entire front line.

Europe has done a lot to give hope to Putin. Just a few days ago the Italian Defence Minister was saying that Ukrainian victory was impossible.

Absolutely laughable Newsnight where they attempted to suggest Trump has genuine security concerns over Greenland and there’s some landing zone which can be reached .

The same Trump that’s so concerned about Russia he’s invited them to join his sham Gaza board of peace .

The BBC is terrified of saying bad things about Trump because of a fear of legal action.

Not entirely.
They've been sanewashing Trump most of the time, as much as everyone else has, for ages.

Still, on that score some new evidence...

A hitherto unreleased letter reveals that Donald Trump's multi-billion dollar lawsuit against the BBC is all down to him not getting a Blue Peter badge in 1978.
https://x.com/Nevfountain/status/2013257986257400296

The sanewashing is pervasive, across all media.

In relation to Greenland you can see it in earnestly discussing the "security concerns" line, which must be a crock of shit due to Greenland being in NATO and the US having broad rights to open bases and station troops in Greenland.

If Trump can take Greenland, he can take Chagos. In fact, once it's Mauritian, there would hardly be any consequences.

I can't help but think Trump's criticism of Chagos is the doing of Nigel Farage whispering in his ear.

Farage knows he's in an awkward position on Greenland and this is how he tries to spin it back to his advantage.

Yes, funny how he's suddenly changed his mind on it.

He's probably forgotten all about it.

He's an increasingly senile guy who has never had much grasp of detai.

And it's probably a mistake to attribute everything to Trump, rather than the influence if those surrounding him.

It was Rubio (with slightly more inclination to follow international law) who welcomed the deal at the time. Someone like "the only thing that counts is power" Miller will take a very different view.

Jan 20th. Only three years until there’s a new US President.

It’s going to be a long three years.

It might not be three years to the next US President. There is obviously something very seriously wrong with Trump.

But unfortunately Vance would probably be an even bigger disaster than he is and with rather less excuse.

If Vance wants the full ten years, he needs to wait until Trump's been in two. Otherwise he maxes out at seven, I think.

As long as he obeys the constitution, yes.

Vance doesn’t have Trump’s personal popularity (what’s left of it) or his hold over the judiciary so he might have to, but it’s difficult to be sure after so much boundary pushing by the Republicans as a whole in the last ten years.