Best Of
Re: PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com
Darren Jones unable to state that the UK would not join Trump’s Board of Grift if Putin was a member.
Ffs, get a grip of your balls for once.
Ffs, get a grip of your balls for once.
Re: PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? 10Sounds about right. I thought I'd look for someone who seems to know what they're doing and just change one or two which look wild. The wild one is Reform on 10. If they don't collapse they should have passed 10 by next week.
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? 5
Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 70.
Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 30.
UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 14% (i.e it has already happened.)
Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 15%
Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? Ten.
The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Keir Starmer.
Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No.
UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £125bn
UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.2%
Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. France.
#competition
Roger
1
Re: PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com
Given that the US is no longer a reliable British ally, why should Britain care overmuch what happens to the Chagos islands? It's not much use to the British military as a base.
Obviously the deal is still unfair towards the islanders themselves, but the strategic concerns have changed now.
Obviously the deal is still unfair towards the islanders themselves, but the strategic concerns have changed now.
Re: PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com
This Chagos business is the definitive proof that Farage is up to his ears with Trump. It justifies the continued engagement with Trump for a UK audience, using the key Reform talking point of Starmerr's surrenders on Chagos compared to Trump.
Nigel tweets on it, then Trump posts on it too.
Nigel tweets on it, then Trump posts on it too.
Re: PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com
The Jenrick defection sees the Tories down by 2.
YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention
Ref 24%(nc),
LAB 19%(nc),
CON 18%(-2),
GRN 17%(+3)
LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2013492891608375701
YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention
Ref 24%(nc),
LAB 19%(nc),
CON 18%(-2),
GRN 17%(+3)
LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2013492891608375701
Re: PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com
Putin is respected by the madman in the White House.
We are not.
Reporter: Have you invited Putin to be a member of the board of peace?
Trump: Yes
Reporter: Can you respond to Macron saying he will not join the board of peace?
Trump: Nobody wants him… I’ll put a 200% tariff on his wines and he’ll join
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2013476862987772170
The time for flattery is over.
We are not.
Reporter: Have you invited Putin to be a member of the board of peace?
Trump: Yes
Reporter: Can you respond to Macron saying he will not join the board of peace?
Trump: Nobody wants him… I’ll put a 200% tariff on his wines and he’ll join
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2013476862987772170
The time for flattery is over.
Nigelb
1
Re: PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?Farage posted on Chagos in his first response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland , just two.days ago. Joined at the hip, seemingly.
Re: PB Predictions Competition 2026 – politicalbetting.com
Farage is now praising Trum for "vetoing" the Chagos deal. He's acting like a viceroy for a country he believes Trump already runs.Quisling is the word, and very apposite considering the Scandanavian aspect of all this.
Foxy
5
Re: Alas poor Jenrick, I knew him – politicalbetting.com
I've only seen the 1:27 ratio reported in relation to the Kupiansk counterattack. Even if it is true there, it likely only applied to one phase of that counterattack, and there's no way it applies to the entire front line.The kill ratio in recent weeks has been of the order of Ukraine 1:27 Russia. This, together with the come end of Kadyrovtsi rule in Chenchnya is going to put even more pressure on the Putin regime. Indeed it is Trump that is giving the Siloviki enough hope to ensure they wont agree any deal. That together with the utter incompetence of thecUS response to the crackdown has given America defeat when they could have seen off their enemies in both Rissia and Iran.Despite failing to make much progress in Ukraine.Good thread.A key Trump-Putin talking point is that Russia is fucking massive and full of people and wins wars and will win again and europe is finished.
I know it's fashionable to talk Europe down these days.
But Europe’s latent power *potential* and strategic options are arguably bigger today than they probably have been at any point since 1945.
Let me explain...
https://x.com/benbawan/status/2013036765813125490
Instead Trump is destroying NATO and leading his economy towards a meltdown that will make the GFC look mild. The massive damage he has already caused to Europe should not be forgotten. So if Bessent thinks the EU should avoid responding to the outrageous threats he is going to be disappointed. The debt sword of Damocles is getting more dangerous by the minute.
Europe has done a lot to give hope to Putin. Just a few days ago the Italian Defence Minister was saying that Ukrainian victory was impossible.