Best Of

Well done Ben for doing this competition again.

Last year I forgot to enter, will try and do so in 2026 so no-one else has to fight for the wooden spoon.

Initial thoughts:
US elections: not as many changes as predicted by most. The House is properly Gerrymandered now, the Democrats are still very unpopular and are doubling down on stuff like gender and illegal immigration that cost them last year. House probably as close as now, but the other way, a couple of Senate seats.

Devolved elections: SNP probably down and Plaid probably up, both swings against incumbency.

Can’t see past Reform staying in the lead in the polls, but the widest margin to be early and the Tories to close the gap by the end of the year.

Lab vote share perhaps 25% if they’re lucky

Reform MPs perhaps up half a dozen.

PM will still be Starmer. The mechanism really isn’t there, and a serious challenger wants to be in the honeymoon period at the next election. Perhaps a 2027 challenge.

Burnham MP: Nope. No mechanism except perhaps an unexpected death in a very safe seat. He’s MoM until 2028.

Borrowing. To get worse, £150bn

Growth: flat if we’re lucky.

World Cup: Sod it, England. (If there’s not a UEFA boycott). The song “Three Lions”, with the lyric “30 years of hurt”, is now 30 years old!

Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?

It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.

And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.

“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

May last year.

“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”

“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”

“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”

“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”

(Rubio)