Best Of

@PTylerLords

Liberal Democrats have urged cancelling the King’s state visit to Trump’s USA: as head of our armed services Charles CANNOT be associated with such ignorant insults to British troops!

I am hoping Charles himself will see this - or that the younger generation will and will advise him accordingly. There is currently a small majority infavour of retaining teh Crown in Canada. But if the King is seen to be acting against Canada's interests by visiting Trump then I can see that changing rapidly. And if Canada leads the way I think Australia will rapidly follow.

If Starmer pushes the King to continue with his State visit to the US then he will be responsible for doing huge damage to the monarchy and to Britain.

I agree, but I fear Trump's retribution for a cancelled visit will be swift and hideous and the weakest link in Europe is Ukraine. He can punish Europe by punishing Ukraine.

‪@jaheale.bsky.social‬

NEW: Understand Scott Bessent and Nigel Farage discussed Diego Garcia and Chagos during their dinner at Davos. US Treasury Sec believed to have credited Farage for getting this issue in the President’s in-tray and subsequent Trump stance.

@jwsidders.bsky.social‬

In the extreme right world Farage inhabits, this will be seen as clever politics. But the vast majority of people in the UK will see this for what it is: conspiring with a hostile foreign power to harm British interests. The stuff traitors do, in other words.

Depends on whther you think giving the Chagos Islands to a random foreign country and paying them billions to take it is in Britain's interests. If that is the criteria for being a traitor then I would suggest Starmer is the treasonous one and any opposing him are standing up for Britain.

More problematically for Starmer, he increasingly gives the impression that he's out of his depth and not up to the job.

He stumbles from one political mishap to the next while giving the impression that he will always choose the most damaging course of action possible whenever he is faced with a decision.

You could equally be writing about your favourite US President.

Kemi condemns Trump's careless talk, saying we need a strong NATO, and asks for Starmer to seek a retraction

So that’s both of them - Ed Davey at PMQs back in summer “I have refused my ticket to the Trump visit grand dinner, but as PM you must say to him blah blah, and tell him he’s wrong about blah blah, and also make him grovelingly apologise for blah blah.” 🙄

It sounded awful then. It comes across awful Kemi copying Davey’s same ploy today.

What, then, is the approach we should be following?

Trump's recent comments about the role of NATO troops in Afghanistan will have offended many and deserve a strong response which, to be fair, has come from most of the British political spectrum.

Farage and his Britain Team MAGA Party have been very, very reluctant.

Labour should dedicate a PPB to just this one issue: Reform =Traitors

"Traitors on television is fun. Traitors in Westminster - not so much..."

I think and hope Reform will take a big hit from Farages support for Trump. But unlike Canada and Australia I don't think that support will swing back to Labour. I think there will be a combination of a small improvement for the Tories and a big increase in NOTA.

I think that's mostly right for now. We are not in a time when Labour can significantly improve. The fall of Labour and Reform, and the rise of Tories and the Greens have been going on for some time.

FWIW I don't think Reform can recover a great deal. This May might be their Schwanengesang. Their fate is too tied up with Trumpism, which the UK is now sick of. Trumpism either gets to a late 1930s point or some white men in coats come and dismantle the stage. Neither will assist the Trumpian right in GB. There is a decent chance that Farage will decide that someone else, not him is to be Reform's person who Will Fail To Become PM in 2029. Jenrick would do fine.

At some point it clarifies that the Tories represent the right of centre. Kemi needs to take care of looking 'extreme right' in any way. It isn't going to be the fashion.

The position of left of centre is different. It is not nearly at a point of maturity. The 50% of the vote that goes that way is all over the place - Lab, Jezza, LD, Green, Islamic Indies, SNP, PC. This will take time to settle, but settle it will once the left of centre's wisdom of crowds asks how to have a chance of forming the next government. This is not yet being asked. The centre right stuff has been runnoing longer and is clearing.

So plenty of NOTA, DKs and voting for those who can't win to come. But a GE is a long way off.

I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.

You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government

Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath

Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming

You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM

Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.

After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester

Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government

In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021

But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?

The swing from SNP to Reform is bigger than the Scottish swing from Labour to Reform so Labour could take second given polls also show the Scottish Tories collapsing from official opposition at Holyrood in 2021 to fourth now.

In Wales though Reform will likely be main opposition with Labour collapsing to third

Good analysis all round.

I'd take that in Wales HY. So long as Team Putin are nowhere to be seen. I do fear Nathan Gill passed everyone by and they might do better than you think.

Actually I don't think Gill has passed Wales by and I expect Reform to underperform at Paid's benefit

He doesn't register with racists I know.

I think Wales is better than that

South Wales outside Cardiff and the Vale has long been a racist hinterland.