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Re: This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com
Hate to break it to you all but the country is not going to suddenly rally around Starmer. He will get a small pity bump in his ratings. Trump is criticising him for some of the very things he is unpopular with UK voters for.Apart from the rallying round populist leaders, rallying round isn't the fashion. And it isn't what is going to count when it comes to voting for the next government. Which won't be Reform (too many people will vote to stop them) and won't be Green (not enough Marxists to go round, not enough young people who can be bothered to vote). So it will, by elimination, be a party marked by the unenthusiasm of their non rallying round voters.
Re: This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com
Agreed.It is not at all clear that President Trump is trying to free Iran from the Mullahs, even if we accept he might like it if things turn out that way. Much of Iran's opposition was unalived by the regime as Trump encouraged them to rise up but did nothing to help them.Completely agreed.Whatever one thinks about the war in Iran - any of the previous ten presidents could have probably got European support of some sort for this adventure. But Trump has gone out of his way to antagonise the USA's allies, either by publicly belittling their past contributions, talking down the alliance itself, trash talking indivudual leaders, siding with the alliance's opponent, or actually threatening to invade allies. Oh, and tariffs, of course.https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2033924181763481974They don't have any alliance that applies to Iran.🤦♂️
Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake.
The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure.
The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America.
I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.
I say that too, not as a critic of the war. Indeed as one of the lone supporters of war with Iran and as someone who thinks that British forces should be used, in a ground invasion if required.
However I would support that because I think its the right thing to do, not out of respect for Trump (which is non-existent) and not due to any alliance obligations (which are also non-existent).
If Iran attacked America, on its soil, then we would be obliged under NATO to respond. They have not. We are under no obligations. Fighting in Hormuz is not covered by the NATO Treaty, thanks to choices America made when the Treaty was signed.
Normal presidents don't do that sort of thing.
I think it is a disgrace we are not helping liberate Iran from the Mullahs and we should be doing so.
But I think it is good to see Trump hoist on his own petard.
I don't trust Trump or his motivation at all.
We should be fighting for regime change in Iran though.
If I were PM I would make that a condition of offering support. We will help so long as you confirm regime change as an objective.
Re: This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com
I don’t know whether anyone else has noticed, but I have been watching President Trump’s statements carefully and I am not 100% sure he is the full shilling.'The full shilling', now there is a phrase. A great friend, the last I knew who used it entirely kindly and without affect died a few years ago at the age of 96.
I am put in mind of the late great Bernard Levin, whose expression with the same meaning was 'not quite sixteen annas to the rupee'.
Re: This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com
France now provides Ukraine with more intel than the US.Intelligence mainly. It's crucial aiu.What support for Ukraine?Trump will now trash NATO and try and turn Americans against the alliance .Shortly to threaten pulling all support for Ukraine, I'd have thought.
Even though it’s nothing to do with that . This really is a dark time and Europe needs to wake up.
Re: This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com
A remarkable conversation about economic policy (responding to the Rachel Reeves lecture this week) on today's Daily T podcast between Tim Stanley, Camilla Tominey and Alistair Heath.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ3pyKzjwhI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ3pyKzjwhI
MattW
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Re: This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com
Dune 3 teaser trailer out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_9vCamtuPYI think this is the Definitive Dune.
Paul's Jihad is exterminating billions (61 billion, in fact) and extirpating forty major religions. Somehow, he's reconciled to Chani, so she will not, seemingly, become an antagonist after all. Alia is preaching to the Faithful. She is not God, but rather, God's Prophet. I'm not sure. I wonder if the blond-haired antagonist is Faraddn Corriono.
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Re: This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com
I don’t know whether anyone else has noticed, but I have been watching President Trump’s statements carefully and I am not 100% sure he is the full shilling.Never! How can you think such a thing!
Re: This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com
We could do here, could we not, with someone who had some means of making their minds work like the Iranian authorities. Who was the chap who recommended trying to put yourself in your enemies shoes?Yes, that's a possible way. Or some sort of deal that Trump can (falsely) say was only achieved due to Eric Fury.I realise @FF43 "calls it for the Trump administration" is preposterous but it does feel like it's run out of road with nowhere to go. The Iranian regime may turn out the be changed less in the end.How long do Iran keep lobbing bombs around if the US (and Israel) stop their campaign and declare victory? If that is unsustainable for Iran under pressure from its neighbours then the US can perhaps still salvage a small win by falsely declaring a big win.
Can we assume that Iranian government doesn't want the war to continue, if Powell is to be believed, so what would cause them to shot down activity now?
Trouble, it would appear that Trump will settle for nothing less than complete surrender, which is what was wanted in Afghanistan, with results that all know.
Re: This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com
While Kemi major weakness is always going two footed into every challenge without any thought, I think it worth remembering most people have massively short memories and people move on e.g. if Starmer had been in charge during COVID, we might just now be coming out of lockdown.....most of his calls were totally wrong, we would have had just as much COVID fraud / money pissed up the wall (remember their dossier of all these companies should be given contracts and it was basically all chancers and fraudsters) and some right bonkers suggestions, but nobody really remembers or cares. Or look at the platform he stood on to become Labour leader and early couple of years, none of that is what he stood on at the GE, again nobody really cares.
Kemi's problem isn't going away, too rash, too quick to do the attack dog mode, too online, and not very smart. Plus super weak team around her.
Kemi's problem isn't going away, too rash, too quick to do the attack dog mode, too online, and not very smart. Plus super weak team around her.
Re: This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com
I hope at least one European politician - ideally Starmer, but face it that’s not going to happen - will say what they really think about Trump’s ludicrous entitlement, and the huge betrayal his administration have presided over, pulling support from Ukraine when Europe is under attack.
It’s we who should be angry with him. And it’s about time Americans heard it.
It’s we who should be angry with him. And it’s about time Americans heard it.
MelonB
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