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Today is the day that the war in Ukraine has outlasted World War I, the Great War.

Ukraine is still fighting back, and in the last few months actually making headway at a cost of over a thousand Russian soldiers a day.

One of the things that seems so remarkable looking back, compared to modern conflicts, is how short both WW1 and WW2 were. These days we seem to contrive stalemates that drag on forever or sequelae that are even worse, see Afghanistan and Iraq as well as Ukraine.

On Ukraine, there is no doubt that the war has moved in their favour after a period when collapse did seem possible. Russia is being destroyed, not just on the battlefield but across much of the country. Its hard to see this lasting much more than a few more months.

You should investigate “Brokenback War” - see Herman Kahn.

WWI ended because the Germans surrendered when they were losing to the point that an invasion of Germany itself was inevitable.

WWII ended because the Allies captured Berlin, Rome, Tokyo etc.

In a Brokenback War, final victory is impossible. Technical capabilities are steadily degraded - hence the crack about WWIV being fought with stick and stones - but the war continues.

I think there's also the point that nuclear weapons, which up until now have deterred war between the superpowers, have also made the west very cautious about escalating in Ukraine, so we've supplied just enough arms to prevent their defeat, but insufficient to defeat Putin.

It's only with the development of domestic arms production, of medium and long range drones, that Ukraines has been able to take the fight to Russia.

With a more substantial response in the first year of the war, it might already be over, and we might not have seen the recent rapid evolution of drone war at all.

Whether intentionally or not the Western strategy of giving Ukraine just enough assistance has maximised the damage to Russia. Had they been quickly pushed out (and there was real chance of doing that in the autumn of 2022) Russia would not have sustained the catastrophic losses that have been inflicted on it.

The downside, of course, is the huge cost that it has also inflicted on Ukraine.

Today is the day that the war in Ukraine has outlasted World War I, the Great War.

Ukraine is still fighting back, and in the last few months actually making headway at a cost of over a thousand Russian soldiers a day.

One of the things that seems so remarkable looking back, compared to modern conflicts, is how short both WW1 and WW2 were. These days we seem to contrive stalemates that drag on forever or sequelae that are even worse, see Afghanistan and Iraq as well as Ukraine.

On Ukraine, there is no doubt that the war has moved in their favour after a period when collapse did seem possible. Russia is being destroyed, not just on the battlefield but across much of the country. Its hard to see this lasting much more than a few more months.

Today is the day that the war in Ukraine has outlasted World War I, the Great War.

Ukraine is still fighting back, and in the last few months actually making headway at a cost of over a thousand Russian soldiers a day.

One of the things that seems so remarkable looking back, compared to modern conflicts, is how short both WW1 and WW2 were. These days we seem to contrive stalemates that drag on forever or sequelae that are even worse, see Afghanistan and Iraq as well as Ukraine.

On Ukraine, there is no doubt that the war has moved in their favour after a period when collapse did seem possible. Russia is being destroyed, not just on the battlefield but across much of the country. Its hard to see this lasting much more than a few more months.

You should investigate “Brokenback War” - see Herman Kahn.

WWI ended because the Germans surrendered when they were losing to the point that an invasion of Germany itself was inevitable.

WWII ended because the Allies captured Berlin, Rome, Tokyo etc.

In a Brokenback War, final victory is impossible. Technical capabilities are steadily degraded - hence the crack about WWIV being fought with stick and stones - but the war continues.

Isn't that just "Genesis of the Daleks", by Terry Nation?

Stand down lads, not only was the unrest in Belfast not pogroms, they weren’t even riots.

https://x.com/stopfundinghate/status/2064766706858205624?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Interestingly even Rupert Murdoch's paper/the paper of record is calling it a pogrom.

Belfast riots: mobs burn immigrant homes in modern-day pogrom

African carers, Ukrainians and a Romani family were among those forced to flee as masked men with hit lists and petrol bombs went door to door targeting foreigners

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/belfast-riots-protests-burning-attack-knife-6pktjfpnj

Expulsion from their homes by violence and terror, which is what happened, pretty well fits the definition.

The only difference from the original pogroms is that the victims aren't Jewish, and so far it's isolated instances rather than a regular occurrence.

More like Bombay Street in the '60s:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/the-burning-of-bombay-street-the-start-of-the-combustible-years-1.3986347

The police should just shoot them.

You have the right to defend home and family with lethal force. In a civil society, you should expect the forces of the state to do it for you.

Just put out a message - anyone on the streets of Belfast with a molotov will he shot - and do it.

They are Prods so it shouldn't be too controversial

So you don’t like The Peace Process?

Why is burning black people out of their homes part of the peace process? It should be a normal public order issue. A molotov is a lethal weapon and people should have the right to have their homes and families defended with lethal force.

I presume the terrorised residents will just be rehoused at considerable public expense, and letting homes be burnt is seen as normal for NI.

I'm sceptical - I only met one voter out of maybe 200 who was going Restore.

On repeated canvassing, it's only people who express doubt who are canvassed multiple times, and they mostly appear to welcome it - perhaps just the traditional English politeness, but there's also an element of "someone is really listening to me". There's an element of fed-upness that appears in the final week, but still generally offered with an apologetic smile.

But does it work? Mainly, I think, in eliminating parties who aren't doing it. I met numerous people who said "I usually vote X but they're not bothering this time". They're up for grabs, and are often quite glad to spend a minute talking it over.

Morning ,PBers. Yes, but this fed-upness is partly what created the disaster of Brexit.

That's what makes this attention-grabbing frustration even more dangerious if it falls into the hands of Restore, a party with a lot of ex-BNP members led by a country squire fascist.