Best Of

Does the polling imply that voters believe Farage less able to deliver on policy than even Starmer ?😲

If it is like 2005 then implication is that if Farage supports it then enough voters think it must be a bad idea and they'll switch support for it to make a material difference.

The problem for Reform is Farage is marmite. Some love him but plenty despise him due to Brexit. They won’t overcome that and that will harm them.

It isn't just Brexit, there are plenty of other reasons to despise Farage and his politics.

Matt Goodwin as his preferred candidate for example.

Indeed, according to the Professor I'm not British.

If Goodwin loses I promise to never use that Farage photo again.

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I don't think I can agree with JRM that the Tories should stand aside in this byelection. It gives opponents of both the Tories and Reform too much ammunition. If the Tory vote is significant in letting in a Labour (or more likely Green) MP, that will be a salutory lesson and focus minds for the coming GE. I expect it actually won't - I believe the Tory vote will largely fold into the Reform vote - that is what happened in Caerphilly.

I don't get this idea that the remaining Tory voters are going to vote for Reform. I would be voting for the none Reform party on principle.

Firstly, it's based on evidence. In Caerphilly, the Tory vote went to almost nothing. It was more efficient than the Labour vote collapsing to Plaid, but there were just too many of them.

Secondly, you must consider not whether you think Tories should vote for Reform, but whether you would happily let a Reformer or right wing Tory become the MP in an election you were voting in, because you wanted to stick with Labour when the Greens or the Lib Dems were the ones with a chance of winning. I don't believe for a second you would put party allegiance ahead of getting a left wing MP in, so why would you expect most Tories to be any different?

Not sure that's much evidence tbh - how do we know they swicthed to Reform rather than just staying at home? Or maybe all those Conservatives voters switched to Plaid (I joke but there are a couple of Tory PBers who talk as if they'd do that).

I think perhaps you miss the fact that Reform's voters are on many issues much further away from the Conservatives than Labour voters are from the Tories. The chance of a Tory voting Labour to keep Reform out is much higher than a Labour voter voting Conservative to keep the Greens out. Tbh though, I think differential turnout is going to be a much bigger driver of a result than these kinds of tactics - and we have very little understanding of that.

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Criticising Zionism would have got me fifty likes

Criticising Islamism gets next to none

I understand that Islamism is much scarier to oppose

Perhaps the site statisticians can confirm, but I’d be AMAZED if any post has received 50 likes.

Have you got your hyperbolic beer googles on?

The most liked post in PB history received 61 likes.

It was by JohnO telling he was okay after his cardiac arrest.

I think that’s the only post to go past 40 likes.

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3404262/#Comment_3404262

I think birth announcements have come close too.

That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh

Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc

Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts

How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)

We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster

We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging

The idea is now laughable

Felix is actively posting and liking.

And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.

For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.

We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.

FWIW, I'm currently a Ref voter, although I might vote tactically for the right sort of Tory if I was in a seat where Ref has no chance. I'm currently in High Peak, which was a Tory-Lab marginal - goodness only knows who'd win it at the moment, but I'm fairly likely to move before the next GE (unless Starmer government implodes very spectacularly in the next year or so) .

Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with everything everyone Ref adjacent says or does mind you - I just think they just seem more likely to fix at least some of the country's problems than all the alternatives (most of whom appear actively keen to make the country's problems worse).

I am not a Reform voter yet. I could consider it. Next election my seat is probably labour v Reform and a Reform target. I’m currently not planning to vote. I’ve not yet seen anything from Reform, or Labour for that matter, to convince me to vote for them. But I am not ruling either out.

Reform are running Durham and don’t seem to be doing too bad a job so far. Certainly no worse than the collation or Labour administrations that preceded them.

Reform needs to show some fiscal discipline. I’m not convinced they’re there yet. The Greens aren’t. They are a left wing Reform, IE none of the above. The greens are more dangerous than Reform with their policy platform.

Lots of people suddenly discover patriotism as a stick to beat Reform. The same people who would sell our sovereignty out in a heartbeat to the EU.

As you’ve come out for Reform expect pile ons and bullying. It’s how PB rolls as no one will want to know why you think the
Way you do. Just abuse for thinking it. Good luck.

You're as happy to dish out the abuse as any other PBer, from what I can see, Taz.
Do you have a particular reason for thinking that Reform should be exempt from the kind of stock other parties get ?