Best Of
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2035423986549510181If this happens my forecast of a modest recession is going to need to be upgraded.
BREAKING: The US and Israel are preparing for a significant expansion of the war with Iran as Trump intends to take control of the Strait of Hormuz in a weeks-long operation, according to Israeli sources - Kann
DavidL
4
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
What is the most REALISTIC end to the Iran War?The US and Israel claim victory, mission accomplished, the threat from Iran is eliminated. The Gulf countries come to an accommodation with Iran which allows Hormuz to be open again. The current regime in Iran remains in office, as blood thirsty as ever. The west suffers a mild recession on the back of the oil and gas shock. Netanyahu avoids the jail. Epstein fades from the headlines. Mission accomplished indeed.
DavidL
1
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2035423986549510181
BREAKING: The US and Israel are preparing for a significant expansion of the war with Iran as Trump intends to take control of the Strait of Hormuz in a weeks-long operation, according to Israeli sources - Kann
BREAKING: The US and Israel are preparing for a significant expansion of the war with Iran as Trump intends to take control of the Strait of Hormuz in a weeks-long operation, according to Israeli sources - Kann
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
People often judge the character of public figures on big things, important things, things that are consequential. But like you I think it's the smaller things, the things people do when they are not in the spotlight, don't have to do them, and could easily get out of them that really tell the essence of a person.I was at a funeral this week of my first boss and mentor. I sent his daughter a story for her eulogy for him about how this chap, very wealthy, all powerful, very influential, would always make tea for the trading floor at 4pm every day. The tea was awful but he had made it when he was a busy man and could have asked many assistants or juniors to make it but his view was very much “nobody is too important to make tea”.@atrupar.comIf anyone ever had any doubt about Trump's guilt that nails it. Mueller did a reasonable job within the ridiculous constraints, and Barr then put a spin on his summary, and the Congress completely flunked holding Trump to account, but dozens of other people were successfully prosecuted.
Trump: “Robert Mueller just died. Good, I’m glad he’s dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
As I said to his daughter “that was the measure of the man”.
Trump’s comments equally and simply show the measure of the man.
I abhore people like Donald Trump, but I can find plenty of time for people like Robert Mueller whose politics might be different from mine but demonstrate they they are fundamentally a decent person.
glw
4
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
I was at a funeral this week of my first boss and mentor. I sent his daughter a story for her eulogy for him about how this chap, very wealthy, all powerful, very influential, would always make tea for the trading floor at 4pm every day. The tea was awful but he had made it when he was a busy man and could have asked many assistants or juniors to make it but his view was very much “nobody is too important to make tea”.@atrupar.comIf anyone ever had any doubt about Trump's guilt that nails it. Mueller did a reasonable job within the ridiculous constraints, and Barr then put a spin on his summary, and the Congress completely flunked holding Trump to account, but dozens of other people were successfully prosecuted.
Trump: “Robert Mueller just died. Good, I’m glad he’s dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
As I said to his daughter “that was the measure of the man”.
Trump’s comments equally and simply show the measure of the man.
boulay
8
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
So sorry I can only give this one like Nick. Post of the day for me.It's a view. But I've never felt that there was a huge gap between my youthful Eurocommunism and later acting as a largely loyal Labour MP. Both came from the same essentially idealistic starting point, and although Eurocommunism - supporting the principle of equality and working-class solidarity while rejecting the dictatorial slant of Eastern Europe - proved a dead end I've never apologised for supporting it (I doubt if you'd even know if I wasn't open about it). I felt that Blair and Brown were in principle on board with the project of a more equal society, in a way that I sadly no longer feel with Starmer. Nor did I see the Commons in the least as a gravy train - I took a 50% pay cut on election compared with my previous private sector job, and the 13 years in Parliament wasn't a particularly wealthy time.
For some balance: you’ve admitted your youth spent as a communist supporter. In any sensible world, that should have disbarred you from any career in mainstream British politics, just as it would for some right-wing youth who spent their time on National Front marches and later fancied a career in the Tory party. But, because of our blind spot when it comes to the abomination of communism, you were allowed to reinvent yourself, sell your soul to New Labour, and serve your time in parliament as one of its foot soldiers. Doubtless, if we dug into your voting record, we would uncover a whole stack of votes you made for things in which you simply don’t believe.
Now, retired from active politics, you’re free to return to putting your principles ahead of keeping your place on the political gravy train.
In the round, far from being a good example, I would suggest you’re an exemplar for much that is wrong with our politics.
Most of us make excuses for our choices and I'm sure that I'd do some things differently if I relived my life. But you imply a more cynical approach than I ever had.
DavidL
4
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
How.many of those screaming at Trump would be screaming at him for not having neutralised Iran, had Iran nuked Israel.
Just asking....
Just asking....
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
No they didn't, they fought a war. You're quoting the total deaths as "innocent civilians" as if everyone who died was an innocent and there was zero justification for fighting.And Israel killed well over 50,000 innocent people in revenge.Hamas slaughtered in one day well over a thousand innocent unarmed people.It is blood lust. Nothing but blood lust, just like with the Iranian regime.No, they didn't.But the Israeli regime still killed tens of thousands of innocent civilians in their blood lust.Iran killed unarmed civilians.The Iranian regime have killed thousands of civilians, the Israeli regime have killed thousands of civilians.100%.They’re been waiting and preparing for this month for the past 47 years. A little disruption is worth it to see Iran finally defeated once and for all.They only need that ammo because the US and Israel started bombing Iran!A peace deal with who exactly?I presume the GCC nations would rather the US and Israel just fucked off now and a peace deal was done?"…to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait."Statement from 20 countries including UK and UAE on the Straight of Hormuz.Yes, but what are they going to do about it?
https://x.com/mofauae/status/2035326341596446810
TL:DR F*** off Iran and allow free passage of vessels.
Now that the incoming drones and missiles have reduced significantly in recent days, expect the GCC nations to move towards a more offensive phase of their operation. They have navies specifically built towards this problem, and if the US can keep the Apaches and Warthogs flying over the Hormuz area it shouldn’t be massively difficult.
More important is the insurance issue for civil vessels, AIUI Scott Bessent is working on this at the moment, with presumably Lloyd’s of London also involved.
Because it definitely won’t be anyone to do with the Iranian regime that’s been bombing them for the past 22 days.
US and Israel are saving the GCC countries a lot of ammo at the moment.
I’m sure the GCC are happy to see Iran being taken down a notch, but the war isn’t exactly unfolding to their advantage. A quick end to the war, Iran damaged, the straits of Hormuz open again, that seems like a good result for them. Ongoing war with no clear war aims, is that what they want?
US and Israel are very much the good guys, and Iran is very much the bad guy.
It is quite depressing how many people here have an inverted sense of who is good and who is bad here.
As @Foxy said, it's Alien v. Predator...
Israel fought armed terrorists in Hamas.
Two completely different things.
Alien versus Predator.
They fought in a war against an armed enemy and people died as happens in all wars.
That's not blood lust.
Only one nation involved has deliberately murdered tens of thousands of unarmed civilians as opposed to fighting a just war. Only Iran has done that.
Alien versus Predator, I'm afraid...
Would you say Britain killed a million civilians by invading Iraq?
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
I’d say moving rather than sad, but yeah. It adds a certain piquancy that Anton Walbrook who played the Prussian friend was also a refugee from the Nazis, though I guess that applies to all the cast who were more or less living through the events portrayed.Absolutely. It touches on the disdain for experience where he is seen as a crackpot and mocked by the younger soldiers but it’s sad in how it compresses the life of a young thrusting chap with all ahead of him and friendships and relationships damaged or disrupted by war and time. The arc of his German adversary, friend is particularly profound in his change from utter Prussian confidence to being broken and relying on the kindness and hospitality of former enemies is wonderful but tragic.Blimp is a great film, but isn’t the end quite philosophical, the arc of a life with all that entails, and some wisdom gained?It’s definitely one of my all time top films. “Blimp” always reminds me of one of my grandfathers and old school headmasters with the combination of discipline, good heart and no-nonsense.BTW for all Colonel Blimp fans/detractors, I saw today that it’s on iPlayer.It is a brilliant film, well worth a watch, not just in its technique but also for its positive depiction of the Germans in a wartime film. General Winstanley comes over as out dated, but always as likeable, loyal and kind hearted.
It’s actually quite a sad film when you think about the evolution of the characters, youth to age, superiority to being broken, useful to mocked as useless.
Re: This bet makes me disgusted in myself – politicalbetting.com
Absolutely, there is a huge difference between targeting enemies and civilians getting caught as collateral damage, and targeting civilians.And those pesky civilians in Gaza were just collateral damageIran killed unarmed civilians.The Iranian regime have killed thousands of civilians, the Israeli regime have killed thousands of civilians.100%.They’re been waiting and preparing for this month for the past 47 years. A little disruption is worth it to see Iran finally defeated once and for all.They only need that ammo because the US and Israel started bombing Iran!A peace deal with who exactly?I presume the GCC nations would rather the US and Israel just fucked off now and a peace deal was done?"…to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait."Statement from 20 countries including UK and UAE on the Straight of Hormuz.Yes, but what are they going to do about it?
https://x.com/mofauae/status/2035326341596446810
TL:DR F*** off Iran and allow free passage of vessels.
Now that the incoming drones and missiles have reduced significantly in recent days, expect the GCC nations to move towards a more offensive phase of their operation. They have navies specifically built towards this problem, and if the US can keep the Apaches and Warthogs flying over the Hormuz area it shouldn’t be massively difficult.
More important is the insurance issue for civil vessels, AIUI Scott Bessent is working on this at the moment, with presumably Lloyd’s of London also involved.
Because it definitely won’t be anyone to do with the Iranian regime that’s been bombing them for the past 22 days.
US and Israel are saving the GCC countries a lot of ammo at the moment.
I’m sure the GCC are happy to see Iran being taken down a notch, but the war isn’t exactly unfolding to their advantage. A quick end to the war, Iran damaged, the straits of Hormuz open again, that seems like a good result for them. Ongoing war with no clear war aims, is that what they want?
US and Israel are very much the good guys, and Iran is very much the bad guy.
It is quite depressing how many people here have an inverted sense of who is good and who is bad here.
As @Foxy said, it's Alien v. Predator...
Israel fought armed terrorists in Hamas.
Two completely different things.
Hurrah for the IDF. Even the rapists in their midst
One is acceptable, one is not.



