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Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
For those who think sanctions aren't worth itThe only way we can bring Russia to its knees is to insist they take on Rachel Reeves as Finance Minister
"Russia’s federal budget deficit in July 2025 grew by $15.1 billion, surpassing the finance ministry’s annual forecast by over 25 percent, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reports. The deficit for the first seven months reached $61.5 billion, 4.5 times higher than last year."
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1954170174526857602
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Surprising to see that Tommy Robinson has a 24% popularity rating, with a further 14% being neutral.How many answered "what club does he play for ?"
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/explore/public_figure/Tommy_Robinson
How many people actually know who he is ?
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
I haven't read any of the articles, but there is far too much doomsterism about. We can be far too "everything's hunky-dory" and ignore problems; but we also can go too far the other way and say "everything's awful", when it really is not.Many of those who gleefully look forward to the end of days claim to be patriots. But it is a strange form of patriotism that declares the country essentially finished. This is still a long way from being true.Telegraph, Times and Tory BBC have published articles against Farage and doomsterism. Has Nige threatened a news tax?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/09/farage-and-the-prophets-of-doom-have-got-britain-wrong
Take climate change / green energy. We can look at our current situation and say "We've got to go further and faster, we're doing really badly and we're doomed,", or "we've done well so far, but there's further to go. Let's have another push!" Both could accurately sum up the current situation, but I think the latter is much more useful.
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
For those who think sanctions aren't worth it
"Russia’s federal budget deficit in July 2025 grew by $15.1 billion, surpassing the finance ministry’s annual forecast by over 25 percent, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reports. The deficit for the first seven months reached $61.5 billion, 4.5 times higher than last year."
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1954170174526857602
"Russia’s federal budget deficit in July 2025 grew by $15.1 billion, surpassing the finance ministry’s annual forecast by over 25 percent, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reports. The deficit for the first seven months reached $61.5 billion, 4.5 times higher than last year."
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1954170174526857602
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
One tactic Tommy Robinson and his Rebel Media backer, is deploying the Trump approach i.e. go on loads and loads of podcasts where they don't push him very hard on his dodgy background.
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Quite. There will be any number of big events between now and then which will move the dial for the parties.Yes. I don't think people are fully grasping the heft of the chunk of time which must flow between here and 2029. That's not next year, or the year after, or even the year after that. It's an eternity, esp in a world as volatile as this.The campaign to stop Nigel Farage becoming next PM isn't going too well is it.They've led the polling for 3.5 months. Ed Miliband led convincingly for 2.5 years and flopped to a big defeat.
There's a serious case of immediacy bias in this parliament
Nigel Farage is not 'marching to power'. With pretty much everything going for him atm, and under no scrutiny, and with his propagandists working like energiser bunnies, he has a nice little lead in the polls for something that is not even on the horizon let alone in clear view.
Labour will benefit from being the government, the Tories from being HMO at times. Reform won't keep everyone absolutely raging about immigration for 4 years and will have to show they can run things at council and devolved levels as well as present a plan for government.
If things are like this after next years voting then perhaps their support is hard. As it stands, they benefit from dissatisfaction and NOTA
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
The campaign to stop Nigel Farage becoming next PM isn't going too well is it.

1
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Yes. I don't think people are fully grasping the heft of the chunk of time which must flow between here and 2029. That's not next year, or the year after, or even the year after that. It's an eternity, esp in a world as volatile as this.The campaign to stop Nigel Farage becoming next PM isn't going too well is it.They've led the polling for 3.5 months. Ed Miliband led convincingly for 2.5 years and flopped to a big defeat.
There's a serious case of immediacy bias in this parliament
Nigel Farage is not 'marching to power'. With pretty much everything going for him atm, and under no scrutiny, and with his propagandists working like energiser bunnies, he has a nice little lead in the polls for something that is not even on the horizon let alone in clear view.

1
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Yes, once Gordon Brown was allowed to transfer massive resources from the productive private sector to the low productivity state sector the economy was always going to struggle.The engine was already spluttering before 2008. Early 2000s is the when the solid significant growth died out, which had enabled a lot more government spending and commitments to things like PFI repayments into the future. Since then we haven't had any real improvement in GDP / capita.Suspect the problem is that the economy hasn't really grown since 2008 or so, and a lot of our assumptions then (and now) depended on the economy growing. Our national borrowing and pension commitments and infrastructure spending would be a lot more affordable with more cash actually circulating.I agree with some of the stuff you wrote which I snipped, but I wanted to respond to the above, because you give some of the *causes*, but causal factors very much depend on your perspective. For instance, for the things mentioned below, take your choice from one or more of the following for each category (I don't agree with all of your categories; for instance I don't think private sector infrastructure is crumbling.)The great thing about all this is that there was always a golden age at some point in the past. It is the pot of gold waiting for you at the end of the rainbow.You know what? I cry B/S on that; at least, at the idea that there was a glorious age where things were better.Tell the people out there that the country isn't broken.The country is not 'broken'. Yes, we have problems, and yes, they may be bigger than they were ten years ago (*). But in general, things still work well. It's just that they could work better.1. The Tories broke the country. Labour aren't fixing it, but the Tories broke itCitation required.Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.Talking about Rupert Lowe.The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.
You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
2. The remaining Tories note that Reform have replaced them. And are trying to our race bait them.
3. In no way are the Tories responsible for the protests. Read the posts by the people protesting. Its largely "fuck off, you broke the country"
(*) But far better than they were forty years ago.
Jobs don't pay people's bills
Public services receive record amounts of cash and deliver crisis levels of service
The fabric binding society together is fraying
We can't fix things by snipping bits of policy at the edges, we need the Big Picture rebuild. The Tories failed to deliver that, Labour are failing to deliver that, people are looking at Reform who won't deliver that...
Ans yes, I will tell them that, on the whole, the country isn't broken. Because it isn't. Most of the time, most things work; perhaps even work well.
The interesting things is that residents in many other countries say similar things about their own countries; witness a rant I heard recently from a German about their 'broken' rail system. Perhaps the only places we don't see that from are those where the public are not free to speak about how 'broken' things are.
Why are things broken so badly?
Taxes at a record high and going up again soon
Sovereign debt at record levels in peacetime
Public services crumbling due to a lack of cash
Private sector infrastructure (e.g. national grid) crumbling due to lack of investment
Rampant inflation driven by energy prices (specifically gas)
Wages trapping millions in poverty no matter how long and hard they work
(Snip)
Taxes at a record high and going up again soon
--> because of inefficiencies in the public sector
--> because services need the money
--> because the 'rich' don't pay a fair share
--> because of immigrants.
Sovereign debt at record levels in peacetime
--> because of Covid.
--> because of *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
--> because we are not willing to pay enough tax
--> because the public sector is inefficient.
--> because we are too generous with benefits.
Public services crumbling
--> due to a lack of cash
--> due to inefficiencies and bloating
--> due to inaccurate targeting of funding
--> due to the demands of immigration.
Private sector infrastructure (e.g. national grid) crumbling
--> due to lack of investment
--> due to *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
--> due to the demands of immigration.
Rampant inflation
--> driven by energy prices (specifically gas)
--> driven by the after-effects of Covid
--> due to *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
Wages trapping millions in poverty no matter how long and hard they work
--> because of too high taxes on working people
--> because of the demands of modern life
--> because of stupid definitions of 'poverty'
And many more for the above. Take your choice; one or more reasons from each category.
As for whether that engine can be restarted, and how to do it, that's the question.
Before 2007 it was increasingly kept running on debt then the financial crisis turned a difficult situation into a disastrous one.
And we still haven't learned the lessons of basic economics - low taxes, low spending, light regulation drive prosperity. They aren't the only factors that matter, but they are the ones we need to concentrate on.
And the current government is indeed concentrating on them, but unfortunately doing the exact opposite of what we need.

1
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
I’d place it around 2003/4 for the European economy. That’s when thanks to a Chinese construction boom, the fallout from 9/11 including Iraq, and the US real estate bubble, the era of cheap global commodity prices came to a shuddering halt and prices started to climb. Since then we’ve had oil shocks, agricultural disasters and geopolitical crap along every couple of years, alongside the triple curses of the financial crisis, Ukraine and Covid.The engine was already spluttering before 2008. Early 2000s is the when the solid significant growth died out, which had enabled a lot more government spending and commitments to things like PFI repayments into the future. Since then we haven't had any real improvement in GDP / capita.Suspect the problem is that the economy hasn't really grown since 2008 or so, and a lot of our assumptions then (and now) depended on the economy growing. Our national borrowing and pension commitments and infrastructure spending would be a lot more affordable with more cash actually circulating.I agree with some of the stuff you wrote which I snipped, but I wanted to respond to the above, because you give some of the *causes*, but causal factors very much depend on your perspective. For instance, for the things mentioned below, take your choice from one or more of the following for each category (I don't agree with all of your categories; for instance I don't think private sector infrastructure is crumbling.)The great thing about all this is that there was always a golden age at some point in the past. It is the pot of gold waiting for you at the end of the rainbow.You know what? I cry B/S on that; at least, at the idea that there was a glorious age where things were better.Tell the people out there that the country isn't broken.The country is not 'broken'. Yes, we have problems, and yes, they may be bigger than they were ten years ago (*). But in general, things still work well. It's just that they could work better.1. The Tories broke the country. Labour aren't fixing it, but the Tories broke itCitation required.Forget Lowe. *The Tories* are promoting the idea of civil unrest. The former party of law and order.Lowe seems more than your usual type of businessman cynical bastard. He seems willing to provoke civil unrest for his own political aims. Very trumpian/faragian/ticean.Talking about Rupert Lowe.The defence of him on TwiX is quite funny. He knows what he posted and why he posted it. He got absolutely owned, and having a spare grand in his pocket doesn’t get him off.
He's so full of shite but anyone who can travel this far in an inflatable dingy deserves British citizenship.
You seemed trapped between the Tories being dead as a political force and yet still responsible for all the nation's ills. Make your mind up...
2. The remaining Tories note that Reform have replaced them. And are trying to our race bait them.
3. In no way are the Tories responsible for the protests. Read the posts by the people protesting. Its largely "fuck off, you broke the country"
(*) But far better than they were forty years ago.
Jobs don't pay people's bills
Public services receive record amounts of cash and deliver crisis levels of service
The fabric binding society together is fraying
We can't fix things by snipping bits of policy at the edges, we need the Big Picture rebuild. The Tories failed to deliver that, Labour are failing to deliver that, people are looking at Reform who won't deliver that...
Ans yes, I will tell them that, on the whole, the country isn't broken. Because it isn't. Most of the time, most things work; perhaps even work well.
The interesting things is that residents in many other countries say similar things about their own countries; witness a rant I heard recently from a German about their 'broken' rail system. Perhaps the only places we don't see that from are those where the public are not free to speak about how 'broken' things are.
Why are things broken so badly?
Taxes at a record high and going up again soon
Sovereign debt at record levels in peacetime
Public services crumbling due to a lack of cash
Private sector infrastructure (e.g. national grid) crumbling due to lack of investment
Rampant inflation driven by energy prices (specifically gas)
Wages trapping millions in poverty no matter how long and hard they work
(Snip)
Taxes at a record high and going up again soon
--> because of inefficiencies in the public sector
--> because services need the money
--> because the 'rich' don't pay a fair share
--> because of immigrants.
Sovereign debt at record levels in peacetime
--> because of Covid.
--> because of *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
--> because we are not willing to pay enough tax
--> because the public sector is inefficient.
--> because we are too generous with benefits.
Public services crumbling
--> due to a lack of cash
--> due to inefficiencies and bloating
--> due to inaccurate targeting of funding
--> due to the demands of immigration.
Private sector infrastructure (e.g. national grid) crumbling
--> due to lack of investment
--> due to *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
--> due to the demands of immigration.
Rampant inflation
--> driven by energy prices (specifically gas)
--> driven by the after-effects of Covid
--> due to *insert party's of choice*'s mismanagement.
Wages trapping millions in poverty no matter how long and hard they work
--> because of too high taxes on working people
--> because of the demands of modern life
--> because of stupid definitions of 'poverty'
And many more for the above. Take your choice; one or more reasons from each category.
As for whether that engine can be restarted, and how to do it, that's the question.

1