Best Of

As noted by TSE Twitter has reverted to pushing folk into the 'for you' feed as default. For me this morning it was this particulary unconvincing attempt at 'I'm not a cnut, honest'.



https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2002753775891857886?s=20

A good family man picture of Jenrick, similar to what US Presidential candidates might do. Just a nice modest picture of him with his girls for Christmas though I am sure, as he of course definitely has no leadership ambitions anymore and thinks Kemi is a wonderful leader

Jenrick has a dilemma. For most of the past year, the thinking on the right was that Kemi would be ousted and that a replacement would be needed who could reach a pact with Reform and who could be the first Cambridge-educated Prime Minister since Stanley Baldwin (see, I do read these threads). But now Kemi is on the upswing.

But who will be the next leader to be replaced if not Kemi? Sir Keir is under attack but there is no real mechanism to oust him, although I think he will retire anyway. But look at the discussion around better relations with the EU, Erasmus, a possible customs union and ask what of the dog who has not barked in the night time. Is Nigel Farage losing interest in politics? He is rarely sighted in Clacton or the House of Commons.

So should Jenrick defect to Reform in hope of an early leadership election? The trouble there is that man of the people Danny Kruger has beaten him to it. Still, he would almost certainly get a Cabinet post if the balloon does not pop.

Farage isn't going to lose interest while Reform are polling so high, it's more a case of when/whether his financial and media backers decide to switch back to the Conservatives.

Reform is turning into an openly racist party these days. I wonder if the Conservatives could exploit the just-about-plausible deniability market?

Provided people have short memories, and they do, there’s space to be the “quietly competent economically literate, and non-racist, let’s have some hope for the future” party.

That isn’t Kemi though.

Good morning everyone.

I'm interested in the politics around current Government moves to consult on changes to animal welfare - the plan to ban trail hunting has been out in front, but there are also significant moves on farm welfare standards, and also a ban on "puppy farms" (whatever those are this week *).

It seems to me to be more decisive than I expect from Prime Minister Timmy Timidity.

I wonder if the underlying politics are to persuade the Tories to paint themselves into the Turnip Taliban corner. The blues are already adept at cornering themselves in some areas, due to the replacement of alternative policy with oppositionalism.

ISTM that the if the Tory leadership try to out-Farage Farage, that will be in Labour's favour.

BBC piece on the welfare ideas:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93wxd27dvko

* From my acquaintances, the last round of "action on puppy farms" had a far greater impact on small-scale hobby breeding by reducing the ceiling for the full panoply of registration, isolation facilities for ill dogs etc, from 3 to 2 litters per annum, which broke the ability to cover costs whilst maintaining welfare.

All looks sensible to me, but I defer to experts on the puppies and pig farrowing cages.

Yes, I am aware of the irony of me calling out other people for a lack of subtlety.

He'll be getting your vote then ?

Yes for several reasons and none of them to do with politics.

First of all his name brilliant for punning.

Secondly, he's a Cambridge gentleman, which is only one rung below being a lawyer in the awesomeness stakes.

Who was the last Cambridge educated PM?

Am I right in thinking it was Stanley Baldwin?

Yes.

(Lee Kuan Yew, Prime Minister of Singapore.....)

And Kim Philby & Co.

As noted by TSE Twitter has reverted to pushing folk into the 'for you' feed as default. For me this morning it was this particulary unconvincing attempt at 'I'm not a cnut, honest'.



https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/2002753775891857886?s=20

A good family man picture of Jenrick, similar to what US Presidential candidates might do. Just a nice modest picture of him with his girls for Christmas though I am sure, as he of course definitely has no leadership ambitions anymore and thinks Kemi is a wonderful leader

I can't help cringing a little when I see politicians, of whatever hue, posing for pictures with their children. To me it edges on exploitation; it just makes me feel sorry for the kids, who probably don't have much say in whether they want their photos splashed across the media and certainly aren't in a position to give informed consent for this.

I was thinking the other day that not too many children follow their fathers, or in these days, their mothers, into the 'family trade' of politics.
Hilary Benn and Stephen Kinnock come to mind in the current HoC.

Edit 'not' replacement for 'now'. FFS strikes again!

Churchill, Pitt the Younger...

Hmm. Can we count Churchill four times? Randolph, Winston, Eden (at a stretch), Soames.

So having failed as health secretary Streeting wants distract attention by promising free unicorns to village idiots.

All Heath Secretaries fail - it's a complete impossible job that is all downsides with zero chance of an upside...

That's true of lots of roles. Look at Education or Transport for comparison,

Is it easier to list the ministerial jobs that aren't all downside?

1. Erm...
2. Um....
3. That's about it, really.

Sports minister is a pretty good one, you get to spend most of the summer handing out trophies to people happy to see you their trophy.

Unfortunately, the modern DCMS role also encompasses having to deal with the BBC.

Remember the poor sod, can’t remember his name, who had to miss the Rugby World Cup win in 2003 to come back for a parliamentary vote 😂😂

Interesting article in the Telegraph saying Help to buy has created a whole set of housing problems at great expense to tax payers

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/a783b34855474f85

It's so left field I wonder what the long term agenda is for reform - actively building social housing?

The article is about Right to buy - which is different to Help to buy.

Yep I'm an idiot - but the fact that the Telegraph is saying right to buy (THE Thatcherite policy) was a bad idea with serious consequences is incredibly interesting.

The problem was the profits were not used to build replacement homes not with right to buy itself

Not sure I agree on the second point. The good houses got creamed off. A lot of poor people ended up being trapped in crap houses/estates in failing towns. It's not all about the Southeast when it comes to bribing voters - rather, those voters in the North often ended up being negatively bribed.

But on your first point, quite so.

For many working class people owning a home for the first time after they bought their council property was a huge source of pride and driver of social mobility and expanded property ownership

Interesting article in the Telegraph saying Help to buy has created a whole set of housing problems at great expense to tax payers

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/a783b34855474f85

It's so left field I wonder what the long term agenda is for reform - actively building social housing?

The article is about Right to buy - which is different to Help to buy.

Yep I'm an idiot - but the fact that the Telegraph is saying right to buy (THE Thatcherite policy) was a bad idea with serious consequences is incredibly interesting.

Or terrifying. A move away from Thatcher.

I used to think the Tories needed to finally move on from Thatcher, but look at what happened when the Republicans moved on from Reagan. Before they made that move, at least the bonkers economics was linked to some sort of residual belief in freedom and democracy.

There's a lot of engineering him into position I think, and Starmer is clearly on board - not sure how else someone openly campaigning for the top job is still in the Cabinet. He is the annointed successor - and always was.

For that reason, I don't think he makes it.

Doubt he is anointed. There was number 10 briefing against him about a month ago.

IMO wouldn't be surprised if Starmer sacks him, says he needs to bring someone in to end the strikes.

I think it depends on how desperate Labour becomes, which itself depends on how catastrophic the local elections are. If Labour has a true mare - for example losing control of London Boroughs which they currently run with large majorities - then switching to Streeting might be on the cards. The one caveat is if the big winner in the cities happens to be the Greens, Labour members might conclude that being more radical and passionate and tacking left is what's required.

Labour won a NEV of 35% in 2022, and will probably win about 10-15% in May. Reform won nothing in 2022, and will probably win 25-30% next year. The Greens would surge, but the traditional outperformance in local elections by the Lib Dem’s will take a lot of votes that would otherwise go to them. The Conservatives will probably win 20-25%, compared to 30% in 2022.

What that likely means is Labour being hit on multiple fronts.

Boroughs like Barnsley, Wakefield, Sunderland, Halton, Sandwell, Thurrock will go Reform.

Islington, Hackney, Camden, Lambeth, Birmingham, Southwark, Brent, South Tyneside, will be lost to NOC at least (Your Party will also be challenging in some).

The Tories will lose a string of counties and new unitaries to Reform, but pick up Westminster, Barnet, Wandsworth,

And of course, the results in Wales and Scotland will be horrid.

I suspect Labour will actually get about 20%, win London overall still and do better than expected in Scotland where Holyrood polls suggest Labour gains from the SNP as in the Hamilton by election. That will stop a bad night for Starmer becoming a catastrophe and may save his job

Otherwise agree with Reform and the Greens likely the main winners next year plus Plaid in Wales and the LDs treading water as the Tories and Labour collapse

With both Tories and Labour down, I'd be surprised and disappointed if the LDs just tread water. National opinion polls during the 2022 local campaign period had Labour on around 40%, the Tories on around 34%, with the LDs at 10%. The political situation now is hugely better for the LDs in relation to both the major parties, notwithstanding Reform's huge surge from just 5% back then.

You may see some LD gains from the Tories, Labour and SNP but offset by some LD losses to the Greens and Reform and Plaid

Mark Pack is a good scout and he has been dutifully recording the LD's ups and downs since the GE. It's been generally a pattern of modest progress, and I would expect that to continue through the May contests.

There's a lot of engineering him into position I think, and Starmer is clearly on board - not sure how else someone openly campaigning for the top job is still in the Cabinet. He is the annointed successor - and always was.

For that reason, I don't think he makes it.

Doubt he is anointed. There was number 10 briefing against him about a month ago.

IMO wouldn't be surprised if Starmer sacks him, says he needs to bring someone in to end the strikes.

I think it depends on how desperate Labour becomes, which itself depends on how catastrophic the local elections are. If Labour has a true mare - for example losing control of London Boroughs which they currently run with large majorities - then switching to Streeting might be on the cards. The one caveat is if the big winner in the cities happens to be the Greens, Labour members might conclude that being more radical and passionate and tacking left is what's required.