Best Of

You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

Westminster Voting Intention:

REF: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
Changes w/ 14-15 December.

https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Good morning

Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue

I think you mean the glitter is getting covered over

It's the same playbook for the last 20 years or so, big up the "man of the people" Farage party, drawing the "socially conservative" vote away from Labour and the Conservatives further right, then dump Farage for the Conservatives.

Reform are just over evens for most seats, against the Conservative party machine and FPTP, I think that's a lay

Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

Word missing there?

On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.

Fair enough on the first point.

Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.

Farage needs to spend that big donation he got the other week setting up the same sort of machine the Tories have as the official Opposition, both from Short Money and their own HQ team.

They need dozens of people in shadow ministerial roles, and a whole group of researchers and policy wonks behind them.

As the election draws closer, they need to have ideas about finance, health, transport, and a dozen other policy areas that aren’t immigration and asylum.

Former Conservative big thinker Danny Kruger is supposed to be handling this policy development for Reform.

This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.

On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.

In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.

It does appear that Labour’s problem is actually the red jackets. They simply don’t like that a certain type of person associatates in such a way. If they met up on Boxing Day to drink coffee, the government would try and ban coffee.

While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

Good morning, everyone.

Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.

‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.

Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems

At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

My logic is flawless and irrefutable.

1915, 1931 and 1940 all say hello (as to a lesser extent does the Lib/Lab pact).

I know technically the Liberal Democrats didn’t exist until 1988, but…

My comment remains true.

It's funny how many in the Labour party haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.

I have a Labour activist friend who still wants Nick Clegg charged with treason. He had voted Lib Dems five general elections in a row to keep the Tories out then absolutely lost it when the coalition was formed.

Surely even funnier the Tories haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for going into coalition with themselves?

"Tuition fees" is a common jibe even now. (Tuition fees was a Tory policy the Lib Dems agreed to in coalition)

And which no party is planning to get rid off.....but its all solely down to Clegg.

This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.

On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.

In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.

Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

Word missing there?

On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.

Fair enough on the first point.

Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.

Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.

This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)

I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.

Uncharacteristically ?

More than usual, perhaps.

Well, rather more precisely a shortage of the usual blustering overconfidence..

Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

Word missing there?

On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.

Fair enough on the first point.

Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.

Farage needs to spend that big donation he got the other week setting up the same sort of machine the Tories have as the official Opposition, both from Short Money and their own HQ team.

They need dozens of people in shadow ministerial roles, and a whole group of researchers and policy wonks behind them.

As the election draws closer, they need to have ideas about finance, health, transport, and a dozen other policy areas that aren’t immigration and asylum.

Former Conservative big thinker Danny Kruger is supposed to be handling this policy development for Reform.

Welcome to my nightmare!