Best Of

I don’t know what a significant section of this site’s membership has against Ed Miiliband. The Edstone was a massive “clunk” but otherwise he seems to me a reasonable sort bloke.

For me, rightly or wrongly, he comes across with a childlike simplicity about the problems of the world and the solutions.

His zealotry about net zero to the cost of the country is a massive problem for me - he is either misguided and doesn’t realise the damage he is doing to create a tiny effect on global emissions at the expense of the country or he does and it’s more important to stand there in the positive glow of awards from people who won’t really feel the effects personally and be able to proudly announce we are the forst country to achieve net zero, sorry you are all freezing.

FPT...

https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.

As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas

How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.

I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?

Lol.

Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....

The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.

Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.

They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.

Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF

The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.

It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.

I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.

Doesn't change the fact that lanyards ought to be abolished completely.

We've replaced lanyards with employee tattoos. The embedded QR codes enable employees access appropriate areas using door scanners and to pay for things in the company canteen.

It's been a big success, plus it's a real opportunity for employees to show loyalty.

I don't follow LD world very closely and I'm wondering about Daisy Cooper. In the Next Leader market she is (and has been for a while) a very cramped odds on shot with no-one else in the betting really. I reckon I could get matched for a lay at 1.4. Is that worth doing, do we think? Or is she pretty much nailed on to get the job when Ed Davey goes?

I don't have a vote nowadays (not since the early 2010s) but Cooper leaves me cold. I find it hard to believe that there isn't a stronger candidate among the LD MPs if Davey goes before the next GE. She is quite popular in the party, I believe, but at 1.4 I'd lay too. Anything under 2 looks short to me when there's not even a contest yet, too much to happen. I haven't bet though, partly for the same reason - not sure how long I'd be tying money up for.

Should note that I'm not at all active in the party - I know some people who are and they're fairly split on Cooper. There are plenty of unbelievers, but probably around half are fans. For me, she's Swinson mk2 - the heir apparent for reasons that are not immediately obvious to me. Swinson, of course, did get the gig.

Should also note that I don't know who I would choose at present.

ETA: If it was soon she'd be in a good position. Longer there's more time for others to emerge, I think. but even if soon if someone good decides to go for it then I think Cooper can be outshone. The Cameron to her Davis.

I thought you meant Yvette Cooper!

Could we have a situation where two parties are led by a Cooper? That would be a barrel of laughs