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Re: The one party coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
@viewcode here. I need to ask a legal question: specifically what can be said regarding an ongoing case. @Cyclefree, @DavidL and other lawyers of PB, can you assist? Shouldn't take longer than five minutes.I've been out and am in hospital tomorrow. Maybe your query has been answered. But if not let me know.
Re: The one party coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
Hope all goes well tomorrow.@viewcode here. I need to ask a legal question: specifically what can be said regarding an ongoing case. @Cyclefree, @DavidL and other lawyers of PB, can you assist? Shouldn't take longer than five minutes.I've been out and am in hospital tomorrow. Maybe your query has been answered. But if not let me know.
Fairliered
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Re: The one party coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
Question is - what counts as an established company? Mine is 222 years old this year, but I bought it as a dried up husk on the verge of bankruptcy. We have some plant and machinery accrued in the previous 200 years (we still use a big hydraulic press built in 1900, bought second hand by the business in 1946), but are effectively running as a startup in the growth phase (we're at 6 employees from January, 4 years ago when I took over, it was me and two sub contractors).So, that shows how an established company can be successful, so it still goes against Malmesbury’s hypothesis.And AMD were founded in 1969, so they’re not a new entrant and run against Malmesbury’s hypothesis.That's debatable, AMD in its current from only dates to 2009. They started design work on the Zen architecture, which saved them, in 2012.
If you take an established company, spin-off almost all of it, sack most of the staff and bring in new management you have something that's not too far away from a start-up. They have no baggage and not much left to lose.
I completely reinvented and fixed one of our main processes about 18 months in - the previous owners would never have taken that risk (it was pretty hairy at the time, basically burning all the cash I had, and some I probably didn't, on R&D, and relying on it coming good), but I realised that without fixing it we were finished. Having done that it's made us profitable enough to gradually grow and pick up staff and market share.
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Re: The one party coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
"At no point were the Cabinet told about the reality of the OBR forecasts."It told Reeves on October 31 that she had a £4.2billion surplus ...
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1995233439767798232
She's done. Be gone.
No she f###ing does not!
The Budget deficit is in the hundreds of billions. There is no surplus! WTAF!? 😡😡😡
Re: The one party coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
I would have thought something like this would be more ecologically responsible;They could get a people carrier to take them to the PalaceMore likely, we would have a nominal (one might also say Constitutional) Prime Minister, but they would be required to defer to the leadership panel for any actual decision-making.I see Your Party have agreed that neither Corbyn nor Sultana will be party leader but instead it will be led by a panel of members. So if Your Party won the next general election would we then be led by a panel of Prime Ministers?
iain watson
@iainjwatson
And Your Party backs @zarahsultana’s preferred option to allow members also to be members of other left wing parties and groups - subject to the agreement of the party executive.
https://x.com/iainjwatson/status/1995084398559900105
Like Benn's model for early 80s Labour, only far worse.

(Actually, The Goodies would be a pretty appropriately self-righteous name for a political party. Instead, the nitiwts seem to have gone with Your Party.)
Re: The one party coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
It is - generosity is a good thing but not at the cost of destitutionMy extended families need a fair amount of support which happily I'm in a position to supply. I may not spend much myself but everything I give away goes straight into the economy immediately. What makes me feel badly is the nest egg which I look on as there for maintaining the house and funding my latter years. It's small by many standards, but huge by others, and I wonder if it's really right to hang on to it.I’ve found giving it away solves that problem - it’s not really “spending” but you can find a local cause that you like and put something back into the communityI’m still saving, and annoyed with myself that I’m not saving as much as when I was working. When I first retired, I spent much more, doing all the things I didn’t have time for when I was working. Now I’m spending less, because of worrying what will happen to my SIPP if there is another 2008 crash, coupled with the knowledge that if I invest more cautiously, it won’t grow as fast over the longer term. The children have their own homes, and don’t really need an inheritance. I am trying desperately to convince myself to spend more, but it goes against the grain.What I found so difficult to get into my head when I retired was the mindset that I am no longer a saver. I’m, effectively, asking myself for permission to spend what I’ve put aside. It’s an incredibly hard mindset to get out of and I should spend more.Couple of factors there, I reckon.Yeh, I know how it works but thanks anyway 👍Saving money does free it up, unless saved in an old sock in notes and coins. Few would be able to buy a house but for the savings of others. All investment - new buildings, machinery, fleets of vehicles - comes from money not used for some other purpose. The general term for such money is 'savings'.There’s a large amount of money tied up in savings. Try freeing that up."hundreds of thousands of children lifted out of poverty"Though that is money that gets recycled quickly in our economy.
very Brownian spreadsheet thinking and talking
Much of our economy is driven by consumer spending. If consumers are skint then there is no growth.
Point being many consumers aren’t skint and choose not to spend.
The easy one is that everyone who can is squirrelling away more rainy day money than is collectively helpful. The feeling that the welfare state will only help in the most grudging sense if things go wrong (means testing, 2 child limit) doesn't help.
The harder one to solve is that the more you have, the harder it is to justify spending more on other stuff. Partly needs shading into wants, but also Sam Vimes's boots. Once you can spend more upfront, it's cheaper over a lifetime. Good for the individual, less good for the economy.
Re: The one party coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
It will never not amuse me that the British Green party somehow manages to be against our only highspeed rail project, most of our actual offshore wind projects and most of our large scale solar projects.It cannot be stated too often: a bunch of opportunist student leftists have arrogated the term "Green" , which is an immensely potent political brand, and are taking full advantage of the benefits therefrom.
https://x.com/stuarthammond14/status/1994798606948471105
Also nuclear.
At some point the penny will drop when people realise the 'Greens" are more concerned about trans/Palestine etc than rising sea levels, but we may still have a long wait ahead of us.
Re: The one party coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
Christmas pudding made. Will steam tomorrow. Festivities can start.
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Re: The one party coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
AJP Taylor used to argue that the Uk avoided revolution because the ruling classes made sure that middle classes had *just enough* of a stake in society that it made sense for them to support the status quo rather than risk revolution.Just as with housing, this is an issue where you face the fewest barriers if you are in the richest or poorest groups in society. If money is no object OR you get taken care of by the state.That matches with what I’ve seen from personal experience - you can bring up a single child in a 2 bed flat. Even a 3 bed flat - let alone a house - is a big jump in price. Then you have al the other costs. Plus (usually) the mother taking a career hit for each child.A low birth rate is a consequence of greater wealth, and greater female choice. It isnt to do with the cost of having children. There isnt any civilised area in the world that has managed to materially reverse the trend.The evidence is that people in the UK are now having fewer children than they want. That doesn't mean a return to pre modern birth rates but with lower housing costs and better economic prospects the fertility rate would be higher than 1.4.
Women when given the choice choose to do something else.
All the childless women I know regret it - and those with 1 nearly always wish they’d had more. And are quite upfront that the cost & space issue was a big factor.
It's always those in the middle who have to make difficult choices and sacrifices, and who generally get the poorest value from life.
It's something I noticed as a child, and it contributed to my personal politics in a big way. My sociology teacher didn't like it when I argued that 'stable poverty' was a somewhat preferable state to 'volatile middle classness'.
It’s not clear to me that the condition holds for an increasing segment (age band) of the population.




