Best Of

Our government seems to be conducting budget negotiations via opinion polls.
The absolute antithesis of leadership.

Starmer and Reeves ditch Budget plan to increase income tax rates
https://x.com/FT/status/1989100368467272006

But if you’re lowering the thresholds at which people start paying (as is mooted by some articles), that’s still an income tax rise. They’re just presenting it as non manifesto breaching because it doesn’t affect the rate (nobody will be impressed with that justification but that’s what they’re going for presumably). That said, surely they won’t cut the personal allowance?

I do fear we’re back to the drawing board of lots of weird taxes around the edges of everything. This won’t collect the money she expects, and I am not convinced the markets will buy it.

Window tax likely to make a comeback?

Maybe a giant holibobs tax.

Huge taxes on cats and dogs. Mahoosive on horses.

Fishing rod tax. Enormous taxes on having a garden.

I'm sure they will have thought of some more creative ways to piss off the voters by Budget Day.

Their focus group polling on raising income tax must have been terrifying. Something they can't remotely recover from in this term. But they aren't smart enough to find a way round it to raise the funding they need.

They really are making it up as they go along. Government by opinion poll and newspaper reactions to kite-flying.

Fun to watch from a distance, but people are making real-world decisions based on the rumours - many of whom will be joining myself in expatville in the near future, at great detriment to the government’s finances.

It's absurd that politicians have trapped themselves into a world where the principal tax rates can never be increased. The whole logic of a tax rate is that the tax is broadly based , and the headline rate goes up or down according to policy and the state of national finances, so that the cost of increases (or the benefit of reductions) is appropriately and widely spread.

That 'politics' apparently prevents flexing the rates of the broadly-based taxes and hence the government needs to gather up a whole load of 'special' tax changes focused on a whole series of minority interests is sub-optimal both for national governance and - almost certainly - in terms of its political impact, as those groups singled out to pay more will surely howl in protest.

After droning on about doing the right thing for the country v the politically expedient thing it looks like it will be the latter .

If Reeves and Starmer were so worried about the political damage breaking a manifesto commitment would be then they should have not suggested they were going to do that . Now it just looks like they’re flailing around without a clue and will instead raise a range of other taxes and then hope for the best .

Messing around with thresholds looks like a sleight of hand . I’ve never known a budget where so many kites have been flown .

Labour backbenchers are living in cloud cuckoo land now being marshalled by Powell who will just say anything to ingratiate herself with them and the general public hoping to be in the right place if Starmer goes .

Unless Starmer and Reeves are incredibly lucky then this all looks like ending in tears . Where exactly is growth going to come from ?

People who don’t want a Reform government like myself just look on in horror .

If you have a majority of 170 you should carry out the policies you believe in. I can't believe they've caved in.

The trouble is that they have a sinking feeling, common amongst the even-slightly-reallistic left since the collapse of the Cold War, that the policies they believe in with their hearts, don't actually work and in fact make most things much worse. While there is no support in their party for policies that do work.

So they are left with either shameless, dishonest centrist opportunism, a la Blair, or technocratic managerialism, as Starmer has tried and failed dismally. Neither really work when you don't have a golden Thatcherite economic legacy to squander.

It was obvious that the Starmer government would end up this way, but I've been very surprised by the size and speed of the collapse.

The Labour business model is broken. It piles too much support for the public sector onto the shoulders of the private sector and then onto the voters.

What “works”, and has what worked as long as I can remember, is liberal democracy, combined with well regulated capital markets, consumer protection, a social safety net, respect for human rights and civil liberties, government support and investment in areas of potential market failure like healthcare, transportation and education, and the rule of law.

That’s not a left or right thing. It’s a civilisation thing.

And what has broken down is the loss of a sense of community; of being part of a larger whole. It’s rent maximisation from property owners; pensioners resisting any cuts; campaigners always demanding more spending on their pet projects. The WASPI women are a good example. Yes the administration was flawed. No that doesn’t mean you get billions in compensation

No one recognises that the whole has got to work for everyone anymore

After droning on about doing the right thing for the country v the politically expedient thing it looks like it will be the latter .

If Reeves and Starmer were so worried about the political damage breaking a manifesto commitment would be then they should have not suggested they were going to do that . Now it just looks like they’re flailing around without a clue and will instead raise a range of other taxes and then hope for the best .

Messing around with thresholds looks like a sleight of hand . I’ve never known a budget where so many kites have been flown .

Labour backbenchers are living in cloud cuckoo land now being marshalled by Powell who will just say anything to ingratiate herself with them and the general public hoping to be in the right place if Starmer goes .

Unless Starmer and Reeves are incredibly lucky then this all looks like ending in tears . Where exactly is growth going to come from ?

People who don’t want a Reform government like myself just look on in horror .

If you have a majority of 170 you should carry out the policies you believe in. I can't believe they've caved in.

The trouble is that they have a sinking feeling, common amongst the even-slightly-reallistic left since the collapse of the Cold War, that the policies they believe in with their hearts, don't actually work and in fact make most things much worse. While there is no support in their party for policies that do work.

So they are left with either shameless, dishonest centrist opportunism, a la Blair, or technocratic managerialism, as Starmer has tried and failed dismally. Neither really work when you don't have a golden Thatcherite economic legacy to squander.

It was obvious that the Starmer government would end up this way, but I've been very surprised by the size and speed of the collapse.

The Labour business model is broken. It piles too much support for the public sector onto the shoulders of the private sector and then onto the voters.

What “works”, and has what worked as long as I can remember, is liberal democracy, combined with well regulated capital markets, consumer protection, a social safety net, respect for human rights and civil liberties, government support and investment in areas of potential market failure like healthcare, transportation and education, and the rule of law.

That’s not a left or right thing. It’s a civilisation thing.

After droning on about doing the right thing for the country v the politically expedient thing it looks like it will be the latter .

If Reeves and Starmer were so worried about the political damage breaking a manifesto commitment would be then they should have not suggested they were going to do that . Now it just looks like they’re flailing around without a clue and will instead raise a range of other taxes and then hope for the best .

Messing around with thresholds looks like a sleight of hand . I’ve never known a budget where so many kites have been flown .

Labour backbenchers are living in cloud cuckoo land now being marshalled by Powell who will just say anything to ingratiate herself with them and the general public hoping to be in the right place if Starmer goes .

Unless Starmer and Reeves are incredibly lucky then this all looks like ending in tears . Where exactly is growth going to come from ?

People who don’t want a Reform government like myself just look on in horror .

If you have a majority of 170 you should carry out the policies you believe in. I can't believe they've caved in.

The trouble is that they have a sinking feeling, common amongst the even-slightly-reallistic left since the collapse of the Cold War, that the policies they believe in with their hearts, don't actually work and in fact make most things much worse. While there is no support in their party for policies that do work.

So they are left with either shameless, dishonest centrist opportunism, a la Blair, or technocratic managerialism, as Starmer has tried and failed dismally. Neither really work when you don't have a golden Thatcherite economic legacy to squander.

It was obvious that the Starmer government would end up this way, but I've been very surprised by the size and speed of the collapse.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/sara-sharif-case-workers-safeguarding-review-3pwtj7wfh

The headline summarises it - "chances to prevent murder ‘lost to racial sensitivities’".

An appalling case. No-one did what they ought because they feared causing offence or being branded as racist. And so a young girl - Sara Sharif - was brutally abused and killed. 96 separate injuries on her body. Her back had been broken 10 times. Unimaginable suffering in a short life.

25 years ago - 25 years - similar reasons ("cultural reasons" they were called - the murderers then were black Africans not people from Pakistan) led to no-one taking action to prevent the abuse and murder of a young girl of a similar age - Victoria Climbie. Her murder led to a public inquiry and lots of new legislation.

Yet here we are - despite all that - reading the same horrific story and wondering when in God's name those charged with caring for our children realise that putting children with men who are known to be violent is a fucking stupid idea and that worrying about being called racist simply should not be a consideration when a child's safety is at stake and that if abusing a child is part of a "culture" (and not a pathetic excuse for violence and cruelty) then we should be calling that culture what it is - barbaric - and refusing to accept it as a defence or excuse for barbarism instead of running scared of its sensitivities.

Ooh this is a good one.

https://x.com/devanaukraine/status/1988673684748607582

Igor Girkin — the same Russian commander who started the occupation of Crimea and Donbas in 2014 — now openly says that Russia’s catastrophe is inevitable, even if it wins the war.

He wrote:

“Time to find any way to ‘exit the war.’ The economic situation is catastrophic. The catastrophe is inevitable — even in the form of victory. It will not lead to the dissolution of the state, but to deep consequences. The peoples of Russia are removed from responsibility — it lies entirely on the Kremlin.”

This is more than despair — it’s a rare moment of truth from one of the regime’s own monsters. Girkin admits that even a “victory” will destroy Russia from within.

When the architects of aggression start warning about the doom of their own empire, it means the rot has reached the core. Like all totalitarian systems before it, Russia will collapse not from outside blows, but from its own decay — corruption, fear, and the moral emptiness that no “victory” can fill.

The fall has already begun.

"Find Out Now
@FindoutnowUK

Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 33% (-)
🟢 Greens: 17% (-1)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
🔴 Labour: 15% (-)
🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-)

Changes from 5th November
[Find Out Now, 12th November, N=2,339]"

https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1988963847936618606

The range of the Labour / Green polling numbers is the interesting bit across all the pollsters. Some Labour aren't doing that bad all things considered, others they are in danger of single digits if the budget goes badly.

"If the Budget goes badly" - it seems very likely it will go badly.

Putting up taxes is always unpopular - but the normal excuse is obviously we didn't have a choice, position is much worse than we thought etc.

But this time, the Government is going to choose to abolish the 2 child benefit cap.

However keeping the 2 child benefit cap is massively popular - Support 60%, Oppose 24%, Don't Know 16%.

Now very few journalists have cottoned on to this - but Times Radio picked up on it yesterday. And everyone is going to pick up on it very quickly on Budget Day.

Got to say, announcing changes like that alongside massive tax rises is going to send their polling even further into the basement.

Yes it’s probably needed to keep Labour MPs happy but they have a majority of 169, allow thr 50 or so that make up the awkward squad to leave

Sometimes you should make choices because they are the right thing to do. Removing the two children cap would take about half a million children out of poverty according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies. It would mean half a million children's lives transformed. It would cost around £3 billion a year, not a trivial cost but good value in the overall scheme. For comparison winter fuel payments cost a similar amount.

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/should-labour-scrap-two-child-limit

A general complaint I have against this government is they don't make choices on their own merits, because they think they are the right choice. I would respect them more even if I disagreed with some of those choices.

And even if you disapprove of "people having more children than they can afford", even if you ignore the possibility that families' circumstances can change over fifteen years...

is it really right to harm children who happen to be born into a family that is insufficiently prudent/lucky?

Really?

Sometimes the wisdom of crowds elides into the cruelty of mobs. I've got sympathy for the need to balance our finances, but the two child cap was always the wrong way to do it, and largely about signalling virtue to curtain-twichers.

"Find Out Now
@FindoutnowUK

Find Out Now voting intention:

🟦 Reform UK: 33% (-)
🟢 Greens: 17% (-1)
🔵 Conservatives: 16% (-)
🔴 Labour: 15% (-)
🟠 Lib Dems: 11% (-)

Changes from 5th November
[Find Out Now, 12th November, N=2,339]"

https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1988963847936618606

The range of the Labour / Green polling numbers is the interesting bit across all the pollsters. Some Labour aren't doing that bad all things considered, others they are in danger of single digits if the budget goes badly.

"If the Budget goes badly" - it seems very likely it will go badly.

Putting up taxes is always unpopular - but the normal excuse is obviously we didn't have a choice, position is much worse than we thought etc.

But this time, the Government is going to choose to abolish the 2 child benefit cap.

However keeping the 2 child benefit cap is massively popular - Support 60%, Oppose 24%, Don't Know 16%.

Now very few journalists have cottoned on to this - but Times Radio picked up on it yesterday. And everyone is going to pick up on it very quickly on Budget Day.

Got to say, announcing changes like that alongside massive tax rises is going to send their polling even further into the basement.

Yes it’s probably needed to keep Labour MPs happy but they have a majority of 169, allow thr 50 or so that make up the awkward squad to leave

Sometimes you should make choices because they are the right thing to do. Removing the two children cap would take about half a million children out of poverty according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies. It would mean half a million children's lives transformed. It would cost around £3 billion a year, not a trivial cost but good value in the overall scheme. For comparison winter fuel payments cost a similar amount.

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/should-labour-scrap-two-child-limit

A general complaint I have against this government is they don't make choices on their own merits, because they think they are the right choice. I would respect them more even if I disagreed with some of those choices.