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Re: This is why Find Out Now polls are such outliers – politicalbetting.com
Yes, much as though some might want a straight fight between "Bungee" Ed Davey and the "Downe Destroyer" Nigel Farage, politics doesn't work that way any more.
It will be a war of many fronts of which Labour vs Conservative won't be the most important (as has been the case in every election since, arguably, 1918). It will be, among oters, Reform vs Labour, Reform vs Conservative, Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Lib Dem, Conservative vs Green and that's before we get to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The thing is, you can go backward on one front yet advance on another if your opponent falls back even more.
It will be a war of many fronts of which Labour vs Conservative won't be the most important (as has been the case in every election since, arguably, 1918). It will be, among oters, Reform vs Labour, Reform vs Conservative, Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Lib Dem, Conservative vs Green and that's before we get to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The thing is, you can go backward on one front yet advance on another if your opponent falls back even more.
stodge
6
Re: This is why Find Out Now polls are such outliers – politicalbetting.com
Recently, I started reading Eric Topol’s Super Agers. Short summary: We can extend our healthy lives by up to 10 years, if we do the right things. I have been doing some of them since I turned 30, and plan to do more.
One of those things is to have a strong social life, and for some of this that will include finding positive sites on the Internet to converse with other people.
I think the moderators have done good work in making this site such a place, in difficult times. And so I thank them, and hope to help them in my own small way, at least until I turn 90, a little less than 8 years from now.
Thank you!
One of those things is to have a strong social life, and for some of this that will include finding positive sites on the Internet to converse with other people.
I think the moderators have done good work in making this site such a place, in difficult times. And so I thank them, and hope to help them in my own small way, at least until I turn 90, a little less than 8 years from now.
Thank you!
Jim_Miller
12
Re: The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com
STV is my preferred vote method (ba-dum-tish).Are you sure that it’s AV fans causing the issue? Surely more likely to be unpleasant localsOne solution to the villa tel aviv brouhaha would be for UEFA to ban Aston Villa on the grounds that their fans are anti semitic thugs who threaten Jewish fans with “no mercy” before they even arriveOr, more likely, play the game behind closed doors. Punish the club because it has shit fans incapable of behaving themselves.
Villa booted out. Tel aviv get the win by default. We can
all move on
Re: The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com
Another interesting example -
The Holy Cross school in NI
Because of shifting populations, the direct route to a Catholic School went through a Protestant street.
A campaign of intimidation and violence was launched, to try and get the school run diverted.
Instead of diverting the children, the Chief Constable of NI lined the road with a wall of armoured Land Rovers.
Then told the waiting press that while he was Chief Constable, the right of the law abiding to use the Queens highway would not be infringed.
Then he led the assembled group of children & parents to the school. He was wearing dress uniform, unlike all the other officers, who were in full riot gear.
That’s what leadership and moral values looks like, I think.
The Holy Cross school in NI
Because of shifting populations, the direct route to a Catholic School went through a Protestant street.
A campaign of intimidation and violence was launched, to try and get the school run diverted.
Instead of diverting the children, the Chief Constable of NI lined the road with a wall of armoured Land Rovers.
Then told the waiting press that while he was Chief Constable, the right of the law abiding to use the Queens highway would not be infringed.
Then he led the assembled group of children & parents to the school. He was wearing dress uniform, unlike all the other officers, who were in full riot gear.
That’s what leadership and moral values looks like, I think.
Re: The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com
I think Sopel makes a good point here:
https://x.com/jonsopel/status/1979122475104338298
@jonsopel
The optics of the #AstonVilla ban are truly appalling. How can it be that there is enough policing every weekend to maintain public safety when tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian supporters gather, but there isn’t when it’s maybe a 1000 Maccabi fans on the one night an Israeli club is playing in Britain?
Leave aside the nationality of those banned, once again the police are deciding that football fans are fair game but protesters are not.
https://x.com/jonsopel/status/1979122475104338298
@jonsopel
The optics of the #AstonVilla ban are truly appalling. How can it be that there is enough policing every weekend to maintain public safety when tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian supporters gather, but there isn’t when it’s maybe a 1000 Maccabi fans on the one night an Israeli club is playing in Britain?
Leave aside the nationality of those banned, once again the police are deciding that football fans are fair game but protesters are not.
tlg86
7
Re: The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com
I was in Brighton yesterday attending the last meeting of the season at the racecourse up the hill - a solid 40 minute walk from the station to get there and an easier 30 minute walk coming back. Apparently, the 37B bus from Churchill Square does the job but what's the fun in that?
I managed a Blanchesque 21,000 steps yesterday but the punting was less successful on a card which was more bread and dripping than bread and butter at a course which looks in dire need of something - like so much else, it has contracted to save costs, not physically, but in terms of what's available. The thin (numerically) crowd was crowded into a single enclosure - the other enclosure (which used to have Barrie Cope's superb seafood curry bar) now stands forlorn with the bar and betting shop shuttered.
The cost of everything, the value of nothing....
Brighton itself is curious and reminds me a bit of Camden - very young (as you might expect) but homelessness and deprivation (of a sort) close by. A lot of building work suggesting there's money around but a level of, and I don't know if this is the right word, untidiness. Yet, there's an energy, a strong vibrant youth culture and a loyalty to the place you don't see everywhere.
A word also for the train service - I could have travelled on the Thameslink from East Croydon all the way there but for an extra couple of quid got a ticket to ride (no, I didn't care, you see, that's a subtle song reference unlike @TSE's headers) on the Gatwick Express so went to Gatwick on Thameslink (no stop) and then switched to the Gatwick Express (stops only at Haywards Heath). Very comfortable and quick down to the coast - not quite the Brighton Belle of former times but not bad at all.
I managed a Blanchesque 21,000 steps yesterday but the punting was less successful on a card which was more bread and dripping than bread and butter at a course which looks in dire need of something - like so much else, it has contracted to save costs, not physically, but in terms of what's available. The thin (numerically) crowd was crowded into a single enclosure - the other enclosure (which used to have Barrie Cope's superb seafood curry bar) now stands forlorn with the bar and betting shop shuttered.
The cost of everything, the value of nothing....
Brighton itself is curious and reminds me a bit of Camden - very young (as you might expect) but homelessness and deprivation (of a sort) close by. A lot of building work suggesting there's money around but a level of, and I don't know if this is the right word, untidiness. Yet, there's an energy, a strong vibrant youth culture and a loyalty to the place you don't see everywhere.
A word also for the train service - I could have travelled on the Thameslink from East Croydon all the way there but for an extra couple of quid got a ticket to ride (no, I didn't care, you see, that's a subtle song reference unlike @TSE's headers) on the Gatwick Express so went to Gatwick on Thameslink (no stop) and then switched to the Gatwick Express (stops only at Haywards Heath). Very comfortable and quick down to the coast - not quite the Brighton Belle of former times but not bad at all.
stodge
5
Re: The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com
The reason people think the UK is doing worse than comparable countries is that they do not know how badly the comparable countries are also doing.
Re: The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com
@Cyclefree responded to my query and the cancer has not spread to her pancreas. It's not 100% and checks are continuing, but at the moment the belief is is that her pancreas is cancer-free.Excellent news 🫡
Leon
8
Re: The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com
@Cyclefree responded to my query and the cancer has not spread to her pancreas. It's not 100% and checks are continuing, but at the moment the belief is is that her pancreas is cancer-free.Cyclefree is one PB contributor who deserves every sliver of good news she gets.
sarissa
13
Re: The Rachel Reeves effect – politicalbetting.com
I don't like borrowing money, it makes my teeth itch. Digging yourself into a hole. I have the utmost compassion for individuals who've seen no way forward but to borrow to meet their needs.
We're in a massive hole as a country and I'd like to see a plan for getting out of it. We present as a wealthy country and we're not.
Good morning, everybody.
We're in a massive hole as a country and I'd like to see a plan for getting out of it. We present as a wealthy country and we're not.
Good morning, everybody.
AnneJGP
5