Best Of

"Freddie Sayers
@freddiesayers

What a disaster that, flying in the face of the data we now have from Sweden and other states that opted for *less* stringent lockdowns rather than *harder, faster*, the British state should reach this moronic conclusion.

This is collective face-saving and motivated reasoning. The failure and panic that led to the lockdowns went so wide, and so deep, and involved so much of the political class, that to own up to it now would simply be too grave an admission. So instead we get this."

https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1991539939423498587

I have repeatedly argued on here we locked down too much (less cooercian, more recommendations). But it is worth remembering that (a) the Swedes got progressively more restrictions as Covid went on, so that by the end it wasn't that different to most European countries; and (b) they themselves don't think their reponse was an enormous success, and think that if they did it again, they'd go down the Danish route.

In their own parliamentary report evaluating the response to the pandemic they say that their approach was predicated on the idea that in a pandemic scenario it would take many years to get vaccines in quantity, and that had they realized how quickly vaccines would become available, they would have acted differently.

@KaterynaLis

‼️⚡️You were searching for some answers? - here you have it. From the US security council just now:

Ukraine has officially received from the American side a draft plan. We outline the fundamental principles that matter to our people. We agree to work on the plan's provisions in a way that would bring about a just end to the war.

In this context, allow me to make several critical points.
1-First, while Ukraine stands ready to engage in meaningful negotiations to end this war — including at the leaders’ level — our red lines are clear and unwavering. There will never be any recognition, formal or otherwise, of Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as Russian. Our land is not for sale.

Ukraine will not accept any limits on its right to self-defense or on the size and capabilities of our Armed Forces. Nor will we tolerate any infringement on our sovereignty, including our sovereign right to choose the alliances we want to join. Any genuine peace process must respect a fundamental principle: nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, and nothing about Europe without Europe.

And let me be equally clear: we will not reward the genocidal intent that underpins Russian aggression by undermining our identity, including our language.

2- Second, support for Ukraine is indispensable. Peace requires strengthened security and sustained financial assistance to Ukraine. Reinforcing Ukraine's defense capabilities is not an escalation — it is the only path to compelling Russia to engage constructively in international peace efforts. In this regard, we express profound gratitude to all partners and allies. This support is an investment in the rules-based international order and global peace.

3- Third, the Kremlin regime will not stop unless it is stopped through unyielding and concerted pressure. There is only one realistic path to ending this war: Russia must be compelled to retreat — economically, politically, and militarily.

https://x.com/KaterynaLis/status/1991630012601295046?s=20

Hindsight is a wonderful thing as we all know.

At the time, the coronavirus seemed a destructive malevolence almost outside control yet it wasn't quite like the apocolyptic tales of science fiction or even the cultural resonance of the Black Death - it was clear while there was death, there wasn't wholesale mortality. Cities weren't emptying, going silent but health facilities were being overwhelmed by the nature of the virus which required more oxygen and respirator capacity than was available.

It's worth mentioning the death toll was mitigated by modern technology - had this happened even 30 years ago, there would have been more deaths.

The decision to "lock down" was primarily to reduce that pressure on the health facilities until more could be made available. I suspect those in charge knew from an early stage mortality rates were not going to be unmanageable and it was also clear from an early stage external transmission of the virus in normal circumstances was rare - the problem was large numbers of people in confined spaces (history could have told you that).

It's also now likely the virus was in the country in February and probably anything we tried in March was too little and too late - whether it came back with the half term holidaymakers or whether it was in even earlier I don't know.

One of the aspects which exacerbated the situation was the prevalence of elderly people who didn't need to be in hospital to receive care but for whom no alternative care regimen had been put in place - this remains one of the ongoing aspects of the care debate, getting those who no longer need hospital care to more appropriate places of care.

I also suspect economic, psychological and cultural considerations around lockdowns had differing elements of priority at different times but it's also worth noting many agencies performed admirably - long standarding protocols based on resilience forums at local Government level enabled, I think, a decent response from councils, the NHS, Police and other groups.

But why did coronavirus seem like such a destructive malevolence? It was because the government created a unit to frighten us into submission.

Not true, remember the news from Italy at the beginning.

I'll wait to read the detail from covid but have to say I'm going to take a hell of a lot of convincing that locking down a week or two earlier would have reduced the overall deaths by 10ks they are claiming. Surely the deaths are simply postponed at that stage as there was no vaccine?

The only thing I'm 100% sure that they got wrong was allowing Cheltenham to go ahead. That was the UK super-spreader, and certainly how I got covid the first time - from colleagues that went there.

There were x million workers using the Tube at that time. Cheltenham was a minor blip.

Sure, but X million from London. Cheltenham brought together people from all around the UK.

I worked then in an office of 300 or so. The first to fall were all the Cheltenham attendees, and then those that sat next to them etc. I find it hard to imagine that a similar effect wasn't at work elsewhere. So I think I can reasonably conclude that it was a significant factor in the spread.

The first hit local to me was before restrictions, a colleague hosted a get-together and about 2 or 3 weeks later two of the guests were dead. That was before we read about the choir in USA who had one last rehearsal together before their restrictions came into force, with a very similar outcome. Frightening times.

On those stats 25 million Brits would have died.

That was one of the curious things about it - that under apparently the same conditions one got it badly but another didn't get it at all.

Or so it seemed. Many cases were asymptomatic, which made it that much more difficult to control the spread.

Those darned asymptomatic cases..where healthy people are told they're ill..🧐💩

They were infectious, that was the problem (and a particular issue with covid). They weren't healthy. Just seemed to be, unless one tested.

Edit: I particularly say that because asymptomatic covid has a real risk of long term effects, like symptomatic does. Not so much, but it's definitely there.

Not sure asymptomatic COVID actually exists tbh, read about a case where a cyclist noticed his heart rate was elevated for his normal effort, had a COVID test and was positive. Now that's a minor symptom and one that's tricky to notice but it's not truly asymptomatic

But there are plenty of actual examples. Enough to write scientific research papers on people who haven't had anything obvious but score positive, often to their surprise.

In any case, there is a normal level of fluctuation of mood, feelings, etc. It's only cos the cyclistr was so obsessive with fitbits and all that he even noticed.

Edit: rather impressive really.

My Trust was part of a study in the summer of 2000, in which we were all tested for covid antibodies. Obviously hospital staff were particularly exposed as we were working and often in contact with infectious patients, though I was covering non-Covid patients at that time. We had virtually no PPE, indeed were banned from wearing masks so those working with covid patients could have them.

Only 10% of us had antibodies, and when the results came back some (like me) were surprised to be negative and others surprised to be positive. For herd immunity the immunity rate would have to be close to 80%. So despite heavy exposure occupationally, with many ethnic staff and Leicester being a particular hotspot (we never fully unlocked that summer, unlike the rest of the UK) we were only a tiny way towards herd immunity.

"letting it rip" would have been carnage. I lost a dear friend in that wave.

This massive.

Paramount to show most Champions League games in UK from 2027-31

US network made largest bid at this week’s auction

Amazon Prime will have first pick of Tuesday matches

The US media and entertainment giant Paramount Skydance has won the auction for the rights to broadcast most Champions League matches in the UK from 2027 to 2031 in a major shake-up of the domestic rights market.

The Guardian has learned that Paramount, whose subsidiary company Paramount+ owns the rights for Champions League games in the US, made the largest bid in this week’s auction and an announcement is due. Amazon Prime is poised to land the first pick of Tuesday matches in major European markets in the new streaming deal sold by Uefa.

Sources with knowledge of the tender process say Paramount’s bid was considerably higher than the £1bn currently paid by TNT in what will be regarded as a successful auction for the Uefa-owned joint venture UC3, which runs the Champions League, and its new commercial rights distributor, Relevent Football Partners.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/nov/20/paramount-champions-league-games-uk-amazon-prime-tuesday

Interesting and how does that affect TNT

It's pretty explosive for them.

I'll wait to read the detail from covid but have to say I'm going to take a hell of a lot of convincing that locking down a week or two earlier would have reduced the overall deaths by 10ks they are claiming. Surely the deaths are simply postponed at that stage as there was no vaccine?

How we forget all those discussions on here about R !

I don't need an inquiry to tell me Johnson is "toxic and chaotic", but a good three word summary of the man nevertheless.

On the actual conclusions, I now cut Johnson more slack than I did at the time. Clearly a lot of decision making could have been better, but no-one got this completely right. In the end the UK was middle ranking amongst peers. Some countries did better but some did worse.

Well the important things are

1) having tried to source lots of disposable PPE in the middle of a world wide shortage, non-disposable has been rejected. We Don’t Do That Here
2) for disposable PPE a stockpile large enough to be useful would be huge and mean destroying vast amounts every year, unused. So we don’t do that either
3) Yes, kids. We are back to depending on PPE from Chinese factories, with about two weeks in the pipeline
4) if the next disease is really airborne, this stuff won’t protect anyone.
5) as much of the knowledge from test and trace etc has been got rid of, as possible
6) vaccine production on the Uk won’t happen
7) the dashboard team was disbanded for fear that easily accessible information would upset departmental control of policy.
{insert more here}

So all good for the future.