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Re: Punters react to the tariff announcements – politicalbetting.com
Bicycle chat. My photo quota.@alaynatreeneBut now I'm thinking about a nuclear winter.
Kevin Hassett, WH Director of the National Economic Council, on Fox right now: "I would urge everyone, including Bill [Ackerman] to ease off the rhetoric a bit"
"The idea this will be a nuclear winter is irresponsible rhetoric," he added
https://x.com/alaynatreene/status/1909221541125988435
(On bicycle chat earlier, they are likely the best post-apocalyptic form of transport. Highly energy efficient and easy to maintain).


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Re: Punters react to the tariff announcements – politicalbetting.com
We knew Trump was going to surprise on the downside the minute our Leon started wibbling on about precisely the opposite.Oh indeed:I didn’t follow the news around what Trump said he was going to do regarding tariffs, but if it was known that he intended to hit every country with them, why didn’t the world and his wife short the companies that were likely to be affected, o as well as the FTSE etc?I don't think even the pessimists expected anything quite as bananas as what Trump came up with.
And the "I regard any trade deficit as a loss" is so batshit it makes any realistic negotiation with him impossible.
A 10% tariff across the board, for example, might have encouraged, over time, onshoring of production at the margin, and would have raised a shitload of tax, while provoking only a fraction of the current response.
While a lot of people (including me) would have argued against it, it wouldn't have been regarded as utterly irrational.
As it is, we're dealing with a man who has completely lost what little sense he had.
(FWIW, I did actually predict that he might crater the world economy with tariffs, before the election.
Which was labelled TDS by some.)
The real Trump Derangement Sydrome, it turns out, was thinking that he wouldn't act in a batshit crazy way.

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Re: Punters react to the tariff announcements – politicalbetting.com
I didn’t follow the news around what Trump said he was going to do regarding tariffs, but if it was known that he intended to hit every country with them, why didn’t the world and his wife short the companies that were likely to be affected, o as well as the FTSE etc?I don't think even the pessimists expected anything quite as bananas as what Trump came up with.
And the "I regard any trade deficit as a loss" is so batshit it makes any realistic negotiation with him impossible.
A 10% tariff across the board, for example, might have encouraged, over time, onshoring of production at the margin, and would have raised a shitload of tax, while provoking only a fraction of the current response.
While a lot of people (including me) would have argued against it, it wouldn't have been regarded as utterly irrational.
As it is, we're dealing with a man who has completely lost what little sense he had.
(FWIW, I did actually predict that he might crater the world economy with tariffs, before the election.
Which was labelled TDS by some.)

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Re: Punters react to the tariff announcements – politicalbetting.com
Oh indeed:I didn’t follow the news around what Trump said he was going to do regarding tariffs, but if it was known that he intended to hit every country with them, why didn’t the world and his wife short the companies that were likely to be affected, o as well as the FTSE etc?I don't think even the pessimists expected anything quite as bananas as what Trump came up with.
And the "I regard any trade deficit as a loss" is so batshit it makes any realistic negotiation with him impossible.
A 10% tariff across the board, for example, might have encouraged, over time, onshoring of production at the margin, and would have raised a shitload of tax, while provoking only a fraction of the current response.
While a lot of people (including me) would have argued against it, it wouldn't have been regarded as utterly irrational.
As it is, we're dealing with a man who has completely lost what little sense he had.
(FWIW, I did actually predict that he might crater the world economy with tariffs, before the election.
Which was labelled TDS by some.)
The real Trump Derangement Sydrome, it turns out, was thinking that he wouldn't act in a batshit crazy way.

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Re: Punters react to the tariff announcements – politicalbetting.com
This week is key. It appears that the trade war is heating up, not cooling down. MAGA claims to have dozens of countries now negotiating with the US. Really? And a negotiation that will go to the US position?The war on women has been going on for some time now.
America voted for this. I hope they enjoy Gilead. Because we know where this is going. The US vs ROW trade war makes Murica even more insulated. One of the free speech things they are trying to ram down our throats is the "christian" right funding anti-Abortion campaigners here. As the US closes its borders to the world, with illegal aliens being rounded up out of their homes and workplaces, the womenfolk are next.
As the rout continues this week I hope that global consumers apply even more pressure as Canadian ones have done.
There's no reasoning with economic illiterates like Trump. The deficit he complains about would disappear if we all stopped buying US goods. So we'd better get on with doing just that and rebuild a trading area that ignores the US.
As for US people who have lost money I couldn't care less about them, They voted for this nonsense. I didn't and have lost out. So no to any trade deal with an untrustworthy country intent on causing harm.
Re: Punters react to the tariff announcements – politicalbetting.com
Donald vs. Devon: lady in the local garage as I was paying for fuel.This Trumpy thing has cut through to loads of people in the UK who take no interest in news, don't engage at all with politics, and especially take no interest in news or politics in abroadland. There are millions of these.
"Oh - I'm not sure we should be buying American Coca Cola now should we?"
She put it back.
I think a precipitating feature is the threat to Canada. Non political types like Canada. They know someone who has an aunt there. It is an icon of harmlessness and generalised decency.
More locally, in Cumbria, where I have lived for decades, there is a strong quiet aversion to people who big themselves up and draw attention to themselves. Trump scores a bit sub-optimally there too. He is begining to get a quiet mention here and there as not altogether a satisfactory person. It's even been mentioned in church, ('he isn't always very nice is he?') though not yet to the extent of knocking the coffee rota off prime spot.
Re: Punters react to the tariff announcements – politicalbetting.com
All the penguins I know have been warned by their mothers about seals who want to do deals.Important question: have the penguins decided whether they're going to enact retaliatory tariffs?They have to agree a course of action with the seals on the island and we're thinking about it.
Re: Punters react to the tariff announcements – politicalbetting.com
Yes, and their president even wore a suit.
... and who can blame them?


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Re: Why Amanda Spielman Deserves her Peerage – politicalbetting.com
The assumption that someone who lives in a trailer is thick. Would you say the same about a U.K. council house resident?What’s condescending given there’s a strong correlation between thick trailer trash who think God will save them and those not vaccinating their children . Those people aren’t interested in doing their own research , they’ll just swallow any old conspiracy theories .A bit condescending, no?For the educated middle classes, fine, but for red neck trailer dwellers they are likely to be more reliant on advice given by the Surgeon General.To an extent but people also need to do their own research. Perhaps ask a health care professional?He's culpable for the people hurt by vit. A overdoses: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/25/health/measles-kennedy-vitamin-a.htmlHe has been in post since Jan. These kids will have been unvaccinated for a lot longer than that and often for stupid sky fairy reasons. There’s a lot to lay at his door, but these deaths are probably not the thing, unless they contracted it at an RFK themed measles party.@washingtonpost.comRFK should really be locked up for criminal negligence. That is just awful.
A second child has died of measles amid an outbreak in west Texas, sparking a rare rebuke of the Trump administration’s top health officials from a Republican senator on Sunday.
https://bsky.app/profile/washingtonpost.com/post/3lm62afvrm22w
That's a strange conversation, and assumes that "educated middle class" aren't thick (stupid is perhaps a better word).
It's the educated middle classes who sit under Blue Pyramids chanting "OM", and attend wellness seminars organised by Russell Brand, spend £££ on crystals, and think that driving an Audi SUV is commendable.
Plus ... Liz Truss is an Oxbridge Graduate.

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Re: Punters react to the tariff announcements – politicalbetting.com
How else do they get p-p-picked up?I know penguins are cool, but do they hang around in bars?Important question: have the penguins decided whether they're going to enact retaliatory tariffs?Just realised that the Trump people meant to put their tariff on Penguin bars.

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