Best Of

The budget will be the Tories’ last chance to claw it back. We should get a solid 2-3 weeks where Reform is largely irrelevant. Nobody takes their fiscal prognostications seriously, I suspect even their own voters. Likewise the Greens.

I think the Tories’ last chance is probably the leadership contest in 2026 (which must be coming). They’ve probably got one more roll of the dice to stay relevant - but it will need a big shift in momentum and direction from their new leader, and I’m not convinced there’s anyone who can offer that. Jenrick, for all his ills, is the closest in the sense that he can at least get headlines.

The only headlines he will go for are on immigration and its tangents. Which boosts Reform and hurts the Conservatives as the question the Conservatives simply cannot answer is if it is such an existential issue why did they not just achieve no reduction in 14 years but ended up with the biggest wave of immigration in our history and a gridlocked court system that couldn't cope?

What would kill the issue absolutely stone dead for the Tories, would be Labour having a degree of success in reducing the numbers significantly.

Between that on one side, and the Reform ultras on the other, there would be no credible space to occupy, given their record in the previous government.

Net immigration now falling due to Sunak and Cleverly's tighter visa wage rules.

Taxes going up under Labour though

How are you both holding up @hyufd. Thinking of you.

As well as we can do thanks KJH. Registered Theo's stillbirth which was the last job we had to do, now just have to wait a few weeks for the postmortem results

"Lammy backtracks on Farage Hitler Youth claim"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn95q9j0yyro

Honestly, calling your opponents Racists and/or Hitler does seem a little desperate doesn’t it?

They need some more vigorous condemnation of Farage so that the new cycle moves on.

Perhaps about his fake support for the working man, having voted against the Workers' Rights bill? Compared with his multimillionaire lineup at the top of Reform, his income, and their tax dodging activities?

Or his sequence of lies fabrications about ... well ... everything. If they run out of these to point out, there'll be another one along by about Friday.

Unfortunately his view, that mass immigration has negatively affected the lives of millions of working class people in provincial Britain, is shared by millions of working class people in provincial Britain.

When other politicians try to combat it with complex arguments, or invoke bills and clauses, people feel like they’re being gaslit and switch off. Others can can try to imitate his policies, but their hearts aren’t in that. He must be a fiendishly difficult character to take on.

Instead, they're being gaslit by the racists - and I use that word knowingly - into thinking that immigrants are the cause of all the problems. I don't have a job, not because I didn't work hard at school, but because of immigrants. Rapes are not done by people like me, but by immigrants. The litter is on the streets not because I just dropped my McDonalds wrapper on the verge, but because of immigrants.

There is zero balance; no acknowledgement of all the immigrants who help our country.

In short, the talk is that immigrants are the enemy. And it's not just the illegal immigrants: it's all immigrants.

And that's simply wrong.

The budget will be the Tories’ last chance to claw it back. We should get a solid 2-3 weeks where Reform is largely irrelevant. Nobody takes their fiscal prognostications seriously, I suspect even their own voters. Likewise the Greens.

I think the Tories’ last chance is probably the leadership contest in 2026 (which must be coming). They’ve probably got one more roll of the dice to stay relevant - but it will need a big shift in momentum and direction from their new leader, and I’m not convinced there’s anyone who can offer that. Jenrick, for all his ills, is the closest in the sense that he can at least get headlines.

The only headlines he will go for are on immigration and its tangents. Which boosts Reform and hurts the Conservatives as the question the Conservatives simply cannot answer is if it is such an existential issue why did they not just achieve no reduction in 14 years but ended up with the biggest wave of immigration in our history and a gridlocked court system that couldn't cope?

What would kill the issue absolutely stone dead for the Tories, would be Labour having a degree of success in reducing the numbers significantly.

Between that on one side, and the Reform ultras on the other, there would be no credible space to occupy, given their record in the previous government.

Net immigration now falling due to Sunak and Cleverly's tighter visa wage rules.

Taxes going up under Labour though

How are you both holding up @hyufd. Thinking of you.

I've been catching up with a great deal of narrative surrounding Donald Trump's 20 point plan.

Was it actually written by someone called Sir Anthony Charles Lynton-Blair?

Asking for a friend.

Dissolved into chaos on day one. Who would have guessed?

But will that matter? The purpose is, with the backing of Arab states which is crucial, to trap Hamas, as Hamas are in a position where they cannot win.

If Hamas say No, then USA/Israel have reasons, however bad, for fighting on until unconditional surrender and imposing an even worse deal on Gaza - including deportation and exile.
If Hamas say Yes, then a process begins, however chaotic, in which they cannot win.

Hamas can not win either way, it just depends how long it takes for them to surrender.

Israel have reasons to fight on until Hamas surrender no matter what. Too many here think that a Palestinian death toll means that Israel needs to let Hamas cling on. That's not how war works, or ever has.

I think that if Israel were motivated solely to destroy Hamas then they would be fighting in a different way and they would be dealing with the civilians in Gaza in a different way.

Israeli actions are not those of a democratic state that sees Gazan civilians as separate from Hamas. You're in denial about how this war is being fought and what its objectives are.

No, you are.

Given how comprehensive the trashing of Hamas are, if Gazan civilians were being targeted the same way the death toll would be in the millions, not the thousands.

Israel is just another murderous Middle Eastern regime.

Its a democracy that is waging an existential war.

If they were a fraction as evil of genocidal as most on here pretend, then there wouldn't be any Gazan civilians left. Israel has the weapons to do that quite quickly.

So why aren't they? Are they just utterly incompetent at genocide, or are they not engaging in it?

Perpetual war suits Netanyahu as much as it does Putin.

Starmer wants rethink on international law to tackle migration

The prime minister gave the clearest sign yet the government is planning a major overhaul on the use of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in immigration cases, but insisted he would not pull the UK out of existing treaties.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd72p30v574o

The application of the ECHR by UK judges has been an issue for many years and I’m surprised previous governments haven’t looked at this. Starmer will never countenance leaving the ECHR or other international rights treaties so I believe him on that .

Our judiciary will bend over backwards to find reasons why claimants should be allowed to remain in this country.

"Lammy backtracks on Farage Hitler Youth claim"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn95q9j0yyro

Honestly, calling your opponents Racists and/or Hitler does seem a little desperate doesn’t it?

They need some more vigorous condemnation of Farage so that the new cycle moves on.

Perhaps about his fake support for the working man, having voted against the Workers' Rights bill? Compared with his multimillionaire lineup at the top of Reform, his income, and their tax dodging activities?

Or his sequence of lies fabrications about ... well ... everything. If they run out of these to point out, there'll be another one along by about Friday.

Unfortunately his view, that mass immigration has negatively affected the lives of millions of working class people in provincial Britain, is shared by millions of working class people in provincial Britain.

When other politicians try to combat it with complex arguments, or invoke bills and clauses, people feel like they’re being gaslit and switch off. Others can can try to imitate his policies, but their hearts aren’t in that. He must be a fiendishly difficult character to take on.